Flair Summer Expansion

[Big Pistons Forever]

Personally I think the future of the ULCC market is entirely dependent on what Westjet does with SWOOP. If they go all in then Flair and anybody else in the ULCC market is toast. If Westjet keeps treating SWOOP as a union busting sideshow like they have to date, then I think Flair has a real chance with a first mover advantage and no legacy cost base.

I think Flair has made the strategic decision that they are in a go big or go home situation

[palebird]

The ULCC secret indeed. It involves a lot of fairy dust. And throwing lots of dead ducks after other dead ducks. But very entertaining.

[rooster]

The ULCC secret indeed. It involves a lot of fairy dust. And throwing lots of dead ducks after other dead ducks. But very entertaining.

Tell that to the Ryanair's, Air Asia's, Spirit's, Wizz's etc of the world that. Could you at least in all your wisdom tell me how a ULCC operator can get money to acquire 13+ brand new MAX jets after being in the game for 4 years without doing something right? Clearly whatever Flair is doing, is working. I remember hearing everyone say from day one that they wouldn't last a year, myself included (actually I gave it an optimistic 2). I don't mind eating my words if it means we have more cost effective choices in Canada. Especially if it means giving jobs to laid off pilots and flight attendants.

[GRK2]

Personally I think the future of the ULCC market is entirely dependent on what Westjet does with SWOOP. If they go all in then Flair and anybody else in the ULCC market is toast. If Westjet keeps treating SWOOP as a union busting sideshow like they have to date, then I think Flair has a real chance with a first mover advantage and no legacy cost base.

I think Flair has made the strategic decision that they are in a go big or go home situation

Serious question. Swoop has 9 tail numbers, Flair will have 4 more than that by year end and almost double that number by year end 2022. You say that the ULCC market is dependent on what WS does with SWOOP. "All in" means what for SWOOP? A match Flair fare for fare, departure for departure or charge less for that fare kind of all in? If that's the case then both ventures likely fail. The competition will kill them both. Is it your opinion that the deepest pockets wins? If WS (via SWOOP) floods the market to beat Flair at the ULCC game what's to prevent WS from shrinking SWOOP once that's done? Then Canada is back to square one. Poor options for affordable travel.

The work force at WS are an unhappy lot and will push back to force changes (like the recall to SWOOP deal they have now) No such problem at Flair, they seem to be quite motivated. I hope it works out well for them.

[DHC-1 Jockey]

A match Flair fare for fare, departure for departure or charge less for that fare kind of all in?

I believe with the recent press release stating that Flair will be operating out of YKF, the airport agreed into an exclusivity agreement with Flair (WS will still have one flight to YYC). So, I don't think Swoop will "Swoop" in and try to match Flair. They'll have to stick to YHM and YYZ.

[tbaylx]

Personally I think the future of the ULCC market is entirely dependent on what Westjet does with SWOOP. If they go all in then Flair and anybody else in the ULCC market is toast. If Westjet keeps treating SWOOP as a union busting sideshow like they have to date, then I think Flair has a real chance with a first mover advantage and no legacy cost base.

I think Flair has made the strategic decision that they are in a go big or go home situation

Lowest costs win that battle. You’re certain that Swoop has the lowest costs? I’d be surprised if the airline within an airline model that’s failed at many places before will come out ahead regardless of how all in they go.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Personally I think the future of the ULCC market is entirely dependent on what Westjet does with SWOOP. If they go all in then Flair and anybody else in the ULCC market is toast. If Westjet keeps treating SWOOP as a union busting sideshow like they have to date, then I think Flair has a real chance with a first mover advantage and no legacy cost base.

I think Flair has made the strategic decision that they are in a go big or go home situation

Lowest costs win that battle. You’re certain that Swoop has the lowest costs? I’d be surprised if the airline within an airline model that’s failed at many places before will come out ahead regardless of how all in they go.

No deepest pockets win the battle. I personally believe that choice is good for the consumer but the world wide trend had been airline consolidation to create impenetrable monolithic blocks.

I admire the chutzpah of Flair to make a contrarian bet on an early return to VFR and leisure travel and position themselves to be first at the gate to take advantage of the surge in demand and I very much hope it works. However sadly history has shown how hard it is to succeed in this market segment.

The big question is really whether the pandemic had fundamentally changed Canadian air travel or whether it is just a blip before we go back to the traditional duopoly with a few fringe niche players.

Time will tell and my guess is no better than anyone else’s

[flying4dollars]

Personally I think the future of the ULCC market is entirely dependent on what Westjet does with SWOOP. If they go all in then Flair and anybody else in the ULCC market is toast. If Westjet keeps treating SWOOP as a union busting sideshow like they have to date, then I think Flair has a real chance with a first mover advantage and no legacy cost base.

I think Flair has made the strategic decision that they are in a go big or go home situation

Lowest costs win that battle. You’re certain that Swoop has the lowest costs? I’d be surprised if the airline within an airline model that’s failed at many places before will come out ahead regardless of how all in they go.

No deepest pockets win the battle. I personally believe that choice is good for the consumer but the world wide trend had been airline consolidation to create impenetrable monolithic blocks.

I admire the chutzpah of Flair to make a contrarian bet on an early return to VFR and leisure travel and position themselves to be first at the gate to take advantage of the surge in demand and I very much hope it works. However sadly history has shown how hard it is to succeed in this market segment.

The big question is really whether the pandemic had fundamentally changed Canadian air travel or whether it is just a blip before we go back to the traditional duopoly with a few fringe niche players.

Time will tell and my guess is no better than anyone else’s

The loads have steadily been increasing fairly significantly over the weeks. Some of the flights are full (if not for a few no shows). Far cry from a few months ago. Confidence is returning and people are ready to cross provincial borders. And when the flights are priced the way they are, why not?

No, deepest pockets doesn't win the battle. It would be easy to think that's how it works. If it costs one airline more to compete with another with lower overhead, when they have other problems going on within their enterprise (ie brand new widebodies to pay for, labour grievances etc), then at some point you accept the competition and tighten the financial taps. Speaking of your consolidation, did Ryanair swallow Easyjet, Monarch, Whizz et al? No. Did Spirit swallow Frontier and Allegiant? (or however you want to arrange the pecking order). No. Most, if not all of the consolidation happened between legacy carriers and yes, I'm aware of the population density of those geographies etc.

Lowest overhead and smartest play wins. Flair's deals with some of the airports as well as their MAX lease deal likely makes them even more competitive than before, and the operation only gets more efficient

BUT, as you correctly said, time will tell. A lot of things need to happen, but from what I've been seeing, so far, so good.

[boeingboy]

ULCC will never work in Canada. I've said that before and I'll say it again. Those that keep referencing Ryanair, Easyjet, Frontier and the likes just prove they have no idea what they are talking about. This is Canada and as much as we would like to have those operations - they just will not work here. There is a long list to prove it.

Seriously - I wish Flair well but this game never has winners. They would need to change from the ULCC model or diversify for long term success.

[Old fella]

Lowest costs win that battle. You’re certain that Swoop has the lowest costs? I’d be surprised if the airline within an airline model that’s failed at many places before will come out ahead regardless of how all in they go.

No deepest pockets win the battle. I personally believe that choice is good for the consumer but the world wide trend had been airline consolidation to create impenetrable monolithic blocks.

I admire the chutzpah of Flair to make a contrarian bet on an early return to VFR and leisure travel and position themselves to be first at the gate to take advantage of the surge in demand and I very much hope it works. However sadly history has shown how hard it is to succeed in this market segment.

The big question is really whether the pandemic had fundamentally changed Canadian air travel or whether it is just a blip before we go back to the traditional duopoly with a few fringe niche players.

Time will tell and my guess is no better than anyone else’s

The loads have steadily been increasing fairly significantly over the weeks. Some of the flights are full (if not for a few no shows). Far cry from a few months ago. Confidence is returning and people are ready to cross provincial borders. And when the flights are priced the way they are, why not?

No, deepest pockets doesn't win the battle. It would be easy to think that's how it works. If it costs one airline more to compete with another with lower overhead, when they have other problems going on within their enterprise (ie brand new widebodies to pay for, labour grievances etc), then at some point you accept the competition and tighten the financial taps. Speaking of your consolidation, did Ryanair swallow Easyjet, Monarch, Whizz et al? No. Did Spirit swallow Frontier and Allegiant? (or however you want to arrange the pecking order). No. Most, if not all of the consolidation happened between legacy carriers and yes, I'm aware of the population density of those geographies etc.

Lowest overhead and smartest play wins. Flair's deals with some of the airports as well as their MAX lease deal likely makes them even more competitive than before, and the operation only gets more efficient

BUT, as you correctly said, time will tell. A lot of things need to happen, but from what I've been seeing, so far, so good.

Welcome to the Maritimes(YSJ,YYG and YHZ) and I believe your airline will be pleasantly surprised with the support it will get down this way over the coming summer. Once the vaccination process gets going and populations are inoculated, things will open up for sure as folks want to move about. In my view reliability is key for a newly introduced service and I bet Flair is keenly aware of this. Again wishing your airline nothing but the very best and every success moving forward. Despite it all, Flair is still around so tis obvious they are doing something right.

[Gino Under]

Here's the reality as I see it.
Competition among Canadian airlines is laughable and in many cases, means guaranteed failure or merger (which by default, IS reduced competition) for many.
Not lower airfares.
The only 'true' LCC in this country in recent memory was Jetsgo. We all know how that experiment ended.

Westjet, by CEO Sims own admission, aspires to be an international carrier. So where's the WJ LCC bit? Sounds like the aspirations of a second national carrier, to me. Because the B787 doesn't fit into the LCC model, even for those purists participating in this conversation. So, why is he afraid of any mergers? Could it be from watching Norwegian’s recent shutting down of their international long haul (B787) ops?
Maybe because it means stiffer competition and lost revenue, not to mention the current WJ fleet. Consider the Max moving forward and passenger acceptance. Then there’s the B787. Another dubious choice.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/compani ... E?ocid=mmx

As a non-Canadian, Mr. Sims may want to look a little deeper into the reality that is Canadian airline services over the years.
I'll tell you what 'competition' has looked like since 1987, when the de-regulated Canadian airline industry was cleared for takeoff. Not very impressive by any measure but our memories tend to be short.
Deregulation freed anyone willing to start an air 'service' (that word so often confused by the travelling public with cabin 'service', which left the airline industry in the 90s) to launch.
In 1974 the return airfare for YYZ-FLL was $229.00 CAD.

Here are few names of Canadian airlines who've offered passenger service (let's call it competition) from 1970 to the present.
Air Canada
Rouge
Transair
Quebecair
Nordair
Pacific Western
Eastern Provincial Airways
CP Air
Wardair
Crown
Ontario Worldair
Oddessy
Worldways
Air Transat
Canada 3000
WestJet
Encore
Swoop
Nolinor
CanAir
Skyservice
Roots
ZIP
Canjet
Royal
Jetsgo
Intair
Air Ontario
Air Alliance
Air Nova
City Express
Porter
Greyhound
Northwest Territorial
Calm Air
Time Air
Provincial Airways
Air Creebec
Air Inuit
Air North
First Air
Canadian North
Sunwing
(I'm sure I've missed some)

That’s a lot of carnage over 50 years.
Some have completely disappeared, some have merged, and some, luckily, still exist. This is what competition in the Canadian airline industry actually looks like. Which isn’t competition. It’s turmoil.
Which brings me to the question of current day pilot supply. How many pilots are willing to risk lateral moves for any risk associated with any new startup?
I wouldn't put a single dollar on the survival of any Canadian airline at present.
I certainly wouldn’t be trying to purchase any carrier or trying to start up in the era of Covid.
But that's me. I can only hope I'm wrong.

Gino Under

[flying4dollars]

ULCC will never work in Canada. I've said that before and I'll say it again. Those that keep referencing Ryanair, Easyjet, Frontier and the likes just prove they have no idea what they are talking about. This is Canada and as much as we would like to have those operations - they just will not work here. There is a long list to prove it.

Seriously - I wish Flair well but this game never has winners. They would need to change from the ULCC model or diversify for long term success.

That doesn't make your opinion correct. Truth is, something won't work, until one day it does. Is it Flair? I can't say definitively, but from what I can see on the inside, so far so good. And I referenced Ryanair et al with respect to a statement made about consolidation and doubt. But I remember at one time many said the model wouldn't work in North America. I understand why it works in Europe, but it doesn't mean it can't succeed to a degree here. I could very well be wrong and all I ever post is my opinion. You're no more an expert than me, or anyone else here. So my guess is as good as yours, and vice versa

[FurHat]

In 1974 the return airfare for YYZ-FLL was $229.00 CAD.

And today that $229 of 1974 dollars would be worth $1131. You could buy a ticket to FLL right now for $400 return. Sounds like flying has become considerably cheaper, which was one of the goals of deregulation

[boeingboy]

Truth is, something won't work, until one day it does.

Oh god...really?
No matter how you slice it 2+2 will never equal 5
Trying to pound a square peg into a round hole won't happen.
How about trying a touch and go in an A320 with the gear up...how many times will it take to make that work?

I could very well be wrong and all I ever post is my opinion. You're no more an expert than me, or anyone else here.

Well - an opinion based on more than a little knowledge of the business side of aviation, but OK - an opinion. So what about Flair management? They are executing a plan based on their opinion then? Doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings.

but it doesn't mean it can't succeed to a degree here.

Now - I do somewhat agree with you here - hence my comment "or diversify for long term success."

I do see a business model where I think (opinion ) that Flair could make a successful business long term - and I hope they find it, but if one is strictly focused on seeing rows of acid green tails and snoopy noses lining the gates of airports across the country like in Europe or the states - I'm afraid the outlook is grim.

[GRK2]

https://images.app.goo.gl/Z2qF7bPnhpVPFkL1A

See if you like this version better!

[flying4dollars]

Truth is, something won't work, until one day it does.

Oh god...really?
No matter how you slice it 2+2 will never equal 5
Trying to pound a square peg into a round hole won't happen.
How about trying a touch and go in an A320 with the gear up...how many times will it take to make that work?

Huh? All I'm seeing are analogies that make no sense in context.

I could very well be wrong and all I ever post is my opinion. You're no more an expert than me, or anyone else here.
Well - an opinion based on more than a little knowledge of the business side of aviation, but OK - an opinion. So what about Flair management? They are executing a plan based on their opinion then? Doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings.

The management here is not the same as the peanut gallery of pilots on avcanada So I think their strategies are a little more than just humble opinions and might actually be based on a number of business factors that go beyond your and my knowledge of the business side of aviation. Then again, there are many on the forum who think their expertise are sufficient to run an airline themselves

but it doesn't mean it can't succeed to a degree here.

Now - I do somewhat agree with you here - hence my comment "or diversify for long term success."

I do see a business model where I think (opinion ) that Flair could make a successful business long term - and I hope they find it, but if one is strictly focused on seeing rows of acid green tails and snoopy noses lining the gates of airports across the country like in Europe or the states - I'm afraid the outlook is grim.

Yes, there is a way to make the ULCC/LCC/whatever CC nomenclature you want to assign, work. Flair is resolving to make that come to fruition. So far, it doesn't look like they are failing as all the pundits predicted within their first 1 or 2 years of inception in the airline side of the biz. Don't take my word for it. There's a reason one of our primary investors went out and acquired a number of brand new MAX jets to lease to us. They wouldn't do it if they saw something that wasn't working, or something they didn't like. There seems to be a lot of optimism around here and it's not fuelled by sunshine and rainbows

[Gino Under]

FurHat
That’s your takeaway from my post? Inflation??
I’m speechless.

flying4dollars
I think we might agree that investors in airlines, and other businesses for that matter, don’t necessarily understand the business they’re investing in. Case in point, Flair. Generally, it’s simply a matter of what is forecast as a return on that investment and how good the sales pitch was to those potential investors. Hopefully, Flair enjoys some longevity in the mayhem that is the Canadian airline industry, but you can see from the list in my previous post how many confident ‘investors’ lost out.

Gino

[FurHat]

FurHat
That’s your takeaway from my post? Inflation??
I’m speechless.


Gino

You said that competition didn't lead to lower prices. I was pointing out airfares are considerably cheaper today than in 1974.

[flying4dollars]

FurHat
That’s your takeaway from my post? Inflation??
I’m speechless.

flying4dollars
I think we might agree that investors in airlines, and other businesses for that matter, don’t necessarily understand the business they’re investing in. Case in point, Flair. Generally, it’s simply a matter of what is forecast as a return on that investment and how good the sales pitch was to those potential investors. Hopefully, Flair enjoys some longevity in the mayhem that is the Canadian airline industry, but you can see from the list in my previous post how many confident ‘investors’ lost out.

Gino

That's a fair point Gino! Actually it's a great point. Though, my confidence in this group comes from the guys in management leading the way. The difference these couple of ex LCC CEO/execs have made, compared to our previous management team has been palpable so far. The great thing here is that Flair is so flexible, that they can adapt better than most and that is simply a function of our size and lack of liabilities compared to other airlines; paying for brand new planes that can't be used, cross border dependencies, legacy costs, labour conflicts, subsidiaries/CPA deals, regional networks, vacation dependencies etc.

[Gino Under]

FurHat
Fair enough.
By pointing out an airfare from 1974, I thought (silly me) readers could see for themselves how little an airfare had changed despite inflationary adjustments over 46 years. So how has the inflationary impact on operating costs over that same 46 years provided a survivable ticket yield?
Looking at the number of failed airlines during that time period says it all. I can’t imagine airline ticket yield in Canada today is even worth the additional “competition” for even lower prices. Great for the consumer but bad for the LCC/ULCC model. A reasonable Google search of failed LCCs illustrates the point much better than I ever could.
This country (based on population and geography) couldn’t sustain 2 carriers, as evidenced by the shotgun wedding of Air Canada and Canadian. I personally doubt Canada can again sustain two sizeable carriers based on the actual airline history of the last 46 years. WestJet has abandoned the LCC model and is morphing into some version of CP Air/Canadian. Historically a dangerous path if history taught us anything? Lower airfares, especially even lower airfares won’t provide a sustainable yield for any airline which could mean bad news for some carriers, including any other new entrant.