What will happen to our industry?

[newlygrounded]

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two

My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.

Where are they going to live? Lol!

Sorry but that home value is all academic unless you sell. And then what? Be on the wrong side of a bidding war to get it back and LOSE money!

Home equity loans, know that tons of people are taking them out, some to buy more houses and rent them out

[newlygrounded]

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible

Ontario said everyone can get their first jab pretty soon, we might actually beat them to herd immunity.

[Canuck1988]

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?

Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.

Vaccines should be picking up drastically this month and next with expected deliveries almost doubling. Should bump the rate, to something like flyingcanuck suggested... barring any delays or cancellations of deliveries... and provinces ability to put them in arms. So far I believe most of the delays have been to delays/cancellations, time will tell if the provinces can administer them at the increased delivery rate.

Sounds like vaccine passports are very much on the table.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/vaccine ... -1.5404349

I think your just not as optimistic as me.

[Outlaw58]

We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58

I am slightly less optimistic about timing for start of travel recovery, however, once it commences I do believe that the rate of recovery will be exponential. The biggest barrier will be jurisdictions that are well behind in rate of vaccination and therefore rate of infection.

I am in the oldest cohort of the ‘still working’ group. In my province my second shot will not happen until very late in the summer. And with the 14 day post-vaccination period for effectiveness, I cannot really be considered fully immunized until after Labour Day. If that is the case for the oldest constituency of the working class, what will it be for the youngest?

Perhaps the vaccine fairy will drop millions of extra doses in Canada and perhaps the provinces will figure out how to increase the rate of daily vaccinations. But I won’t hold my breath. I will believe what I see with my eyes rather than what I hear from politicians.

The airline industry is facing a tough road ahead. We will wax nostalgic about the heady days of 2019 recognizing that there will be no magical snap-back.

From what I have read about the vaccines, 1st shot protects you, 2nd one extends the duration of that protection (with small boost).

Based on that, I made the assumption we won't need to wait for the 2nd dose to see the positive effect of the vaccine (looking at the 70+ age group seems to support that hypothesis).

What remains to be seen is whether jurisdictions will want to wait til a 2nd shot, as you suggest, before relaxing measures in a meaningful way or will relax early based on numbers as I am hoping.

58

[PostmasterGeneral]

Once everyone is vaccinated I'm sure they'll announce some sort of "new variant" not covered by the vaccine and back into lockdown we go.

[rudder]

Reply to two comments above - yes, there will eventually be vaccine passports. But Canada will not accept them before the end of summer, and the ‘passport’ will require completed vaccination regimen. That is what other jurisdictions are doing.

If 60+ is not getting second shot until August, it will be well after Labour Day and in to the fall before 30 year olds have second shots. JT will want a level playing field with no age group advantaged nor disadvantaged for travel.

And, Provinces will also have to be willing to cease barriers to entry.

[palebird]

As with so many things that the left fantasize about...the devil is in the details. Look south of the 49th to see where it is all going. The Blue states are being abandoned by conservative thinkers. This is real and shows up on census to the point where Blue states are losing seats in the house due to population decline in their respective states. People are voting with their feet. Covid in the Red states is over..done..dead. Blue states it is starting to die. Explain that one with your "science". Passports are dead in the water, they will try but this whole fantasy will crash and burn. Canada, as usual, will be sucking hind teat.

[Goodman5]

As with so many things that the left fantasize about...the devil is in the details. Look south of the 49th to see where it is all going. The Blue states are being abandoned by conservative thinkers. This is real and shows up on census to the point where Blue states are losing seats in the house due to population decline in their respective states. People are voting with their feet. Covid in the Red states is over..done..dead. Blue states it is starting to die. Explain that one with your "science". Passports are dead in the water, they will try but this whole fantasy will crash and burn. Canada, as usual, will be sucking hind teat.

Oh man that explains it. The virus has a favourite colour

[‘Bob’]

My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.

Where are they going to live? Lol!

Sorry but that home value is all academic unless you sell. And then what? Be on the wrong side of a bidding war to get it back and LOSE money!

Home equity loans, know that tons of people are taking them out, some to buy more houses and rent them out

I think they called that “buying on margin” in 1929.

[EPR]

I'm pretty sure by now (I've been harping this fact since October), that everyone realizes (except for the most staunch Libtard supporters) that our bumbling, stuttering, idiot of a Prime Minister has failed to secure enough vaccines (because he tried to make a deal for vaccine production with China during the rush to order Pfizer..etc.) for our once great Country! We have literally stolen vaccines from the poorest Nations in order for Trudeau to spew his fake vaccination numbers! He alone is responsible for our 3rd wave of lock-downs, as the States along with many other Countries are opening up! He is the sole reason why you are still unemployed! But hey...the budget will balance itself! #DramaTeacherForPM (What could possibly go wrong?)

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

I'm pretty sure by now (I've been harping this fact since October), that everyone realizes (except for the most staunch Libtard supporters) that our bumbling, stuttering, idiot of a Prime Minister has failed to secure enough vaccines (because he tried to make a deal for vaccine production with China during the rush to order Pfizer..etc.) for our once great Country! We have literally stolen vaccines from the poorest Nations in order for Trudeau to spew his fake vaccination numbers! He alone is responsible for our 3rd wave of lock-downs, as the States along with many other Countries are opening up! He is the sole reason why you are still unemployed! But hey...the budget will balance itself! #DramaTeacherForPM (What could possibly go wrong?)

Well, personally, I blame Mr. Ford, at least for ON. But you are free to choose your scapegoat as well. Personally I try to keep partisan politics out of these debates, and avoid terms like "Libtard".

[Rooster69]

I'm pretty sure by now (I've been harping this fact since October), that everyone realizes (except for the most staunch Libtard supporters) that our bumbling, stuttering, idiot of a Prime Minister has failed to secure enough vaccines (because he tried to make a deal for vaccine production with China during the rush to order Pfizer..etc.) for our once great Country! We have literally stolen vaccines from the poorest Nations in order for Trudeau to spew his fake vaccination numbers! He alone is responsible for our 3rd wave of lock-downs, as the States along with many other Countries are opening up! He is the sole reason why you are still unemployed! But hey...the budget will balance itself! #DramaTeacherForPM (What could possibly go wrong?)

This.

Our Socialist p.m. is a complete failure as a leader.

[altiplano]

Well, personally, I blame Mr. Ford, at least for ON. But you are free to choose your scapegoat as well. Personally I try to keep partisan politics out of these debates, and avoid terms like "Libtard".

Scapegoat indeed... How can you blame Ford for what have all been brought on by Federal mistakes?

- failure to stop Chinese airlines and screen people at the outset
- failure to deliver a coherent strategy for the country
- continuous contradicting/mixed messages
- failure to secure domestic vaccine production
- failure to secure timely vaccines procurement
- highest spend per capita of developed nations
- worst economic performance of developed nations
- and still has managed to trample rights of Canadians with no positive result

We have:
a Health Minister that was a graphic designer,
a Procurement Minister that never held a real world job (academic),
a Finance Minister that was a marginal journalist, and
a Prime Minister that aspired to living off his trust fund and once taught snowboarding, and filled in as a teacher briefly... that's it.

It's no wonder we are shitting the bed in this country. If this is who Liberals think have what it takes to do the jobs well then Libtards it is...

[RRJetPilot]

well said

Worst government in Canadian history. By a large margin.

[Old fella]

Oh Jeez, if the “drama teacher” and his merry band of” libtards” assume power again, especially with a majority(current polling suggest that’s the case) the AvCanada political side show will light up brighter than a July 1st fireworks display. Now, that is an AvCanada concert I will pay double admission- the comedy acts will be first rate.

[CruiserNU]

I have always (since 1967) voted Conservative. You're right, the polls suggest that the Liberals have now bought enough votes to pretty much guarantee their re-election.
So, this time, I probably won't vote at all. Let the bastards clean up their own mess for once!

[Zaibatsu]

I'm pretty sure by now (I've been harping this fact since October), that everyone realizes (except for the most staunch Libtard supporters) that our bumbling, stuttering, idiot of a Prime Minister has failed to secure enough vaccines (because he tried to make a deal for vaccine production with China during the rush to order Pfizer..etc.) for our once great Country! We have literally stolen vaccines from the poorest Nations in order for Trudeau to spew his fake vaccination numbers! He alone is responsible for our 3rd wave of lock-downs, as the States along with many other Countries are opening up! He is the sole reason why you are still unemployed! But hey...the budget will balance itself! #DramaTeacherForPM (What could possibly go wrong?)

I wonder what the staunch conservative apologists would have said if swine flu had taken off and exposed our vaccine weakness then? Would they have blamed the Liberals on that one too as they gutted any form of value added industry to go back to scraping things out of the ground? Only luck prevented the exact same thing from befalling the conservatives.

4840 people dead of COVID-19 in the USA last week.

In Canada, an equivalent number would be 557.

It was under 2/3 that number in spite of supposedly having higher cases and fewer vaccines.

If you think the US is handling this pandemic better, you’re delusional.

[EPR]

I'm pretty sure by now (I've been harping this fact since October), that everyone realizes (except for the most staunch Libtard supporters) that our bumbling, stuttering, idiot of a Prime Minister has failed to secure enough vaccines (because he tried to make a deal for vaccine production with China during the rush to order Pfizer..etc.) for our once great Country! We have literally stolen vaccines from the poorest Nations in order for Trudeau to spew his fake vaccination numbers! He alone is responsible for our 3rd wave of lock-downs, as the States along with many other Countries are opening up! He is the sole reason why you are still unemployed! But hey...the budget will balance itself! #DramaTeacherForPM (What could possibly go wrong?)

I wonder what the staunch conservative apologists would have said if swine flu had taken off and exposed our vaccine weakness then? Would they have blamed the Liberals on that one too as they gutted any form of value added industry to go back to scraping things out of the ground? Only luck prevented the exact same thing from befalling the conservatives.

4840 people dead of COVID-19 in the USA last week.

In Canada, an equivalent number would be 557.

It was under 2/3 that number in spite of supposedly having higher cases and fewer vaccines.

If you think the US is handling this pandemic better, you’re delusional.

If you are defending Trudeau and his incompetent Government, then you're the delusional one!

[Spaceshuttle]

Ok, lots of Stats are always thrown around...

On a normal pre covid year, say 2018, how many people died in the USA or Canada from the flu or any other airborne diseases such as Tuberculosis, SARs in one week?

On a normal year how many people in the USA die from "natural" causes in a week? How many from homicides or suicide or automobile accidents?

If you want to roll out stats to prove your case then roll them out in a comparative way...I am pretty sure that most of us are shocked to hear of even one death but ask a doctor or a mortician and they would be able to say if that is normal or not.

[RRJetPilot]

Here is what Canada’s lockdowns are doing:
Quoted from stats Canada published 2 weeks ago.

“ Excess mortality in the younger-than-45 age group is increasing in Canada
As the pandemic continues, excess mortality in Canada has shifted to affect younger populations, but this shift cannot be explained by changes in the number of deaths attributed directly to COVID-19. During the spring of 2020 in Canada, the number of deaths reported among those younger than 45 was 12% higher than expected. During the fall, the number of deaths among this age group increased to 19% higher than expected.

As there was no increase in deaths caused by COVID-19 for this age group—less than 1% of COVID-19 deaths in Canada involved individuals younger than 45—these shifts imply an increase in deaths that may be indirectly associated with the pandemic or other factors. For example, in some provinces, there have been observed increases in overdose-related deaths in 2020 compared with previous years.”


Lockdowns are killing young Canadians. The real tragedy here.