What will happen to our industry?

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pacman007
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What will happen to our industry?

Post by pacman007 »

With Covid not going away anytime soon what will happen to our airlines? And most importantly pilots. Do we see a full recovery at some point? Or long waits for recall and lower WACONs being negotiated due to the damage our airlines have faced?
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by ayseven »

The answer you want is inside. When the fork in the road presents itself, take it.
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flyingcanuck
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by flyingcanuck »

I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
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Old fella
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Old fella »

One thing is certain, there is a pent up demand to bust loose and get back to some normality in life. Domestic and International travel included, how that translates for the Canadian airline business is way beyond my level of knowledge on the subject. There are better and smarter individuals than me who could provide insight as to how things may/will shape up in this particular sector. Hopefully some of the more astute common-taters can shed some light.
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by flying4dollars »

Old fella wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:11 am One thing is certain, there is a pent up demand to bust loose and get back to some normality in life. Domestic and International travel included, how that translates for the Canadian airline business is way beyond my level of knowledge on the subject. There are better and smarter individuals than me who could provide insight as to how things may/will shape up in this particular sector. Hopefully some of the more astute common-taters can shed some light.
My thoughts exactly.
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montado
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by montado »

flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:57 am I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
8) wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.
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Outlaw58
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Outlaw58 »

montado wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:39 am
flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:57 am I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
8) wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.
The world never went back to what it was pre-9/11. But it became a world where we were able to live our lives.

Same will happen with COVID.

58
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Old fella »

Outlaw58 wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:19 am
montado wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:39 am
flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:57 am I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
I think demand will come back but it’s hard to know what it looks like because goal posts keep moving. Just look at the progression of masks:

1) we need to ensure we don’t stigmatize the use of masks
2) masks are something everyone should use
3) masks should be mandatory
4) if you don’t wear a mask you are not protecting others
5) if we wear masks for two weeks covid could be over
6) If you don’t wear a mask you are a grandma killer
7) masks should be triple layer
8) wear two masks for a better fit
9) wear masks outside
10) even after vaccinated we still need masks
11) flight attendants calling for permanent mask policy

Normal will never come back. Number one rule in politics if you want to make a conservative mad tell them a lie, if you want to make a liberal mad tell them the truth. Also it doesn’t help for Canada to be vaccinated, the whole world needs to vaccinate for “normal” and that will take many years. And variants.... flu 2.0 is what covid is.

This progression applies to all the policies implemented. Taxes will keep increasing, all these ideas being leveraged like paid sick days are taking advantage of the moment to push agendas into a more socialist state. People want “free money”.UBI, new normal, the great reset... call it what you like.

So if you are asking will our industry ever return to what it was in 2019, I don’t think so. Things will look a lot different, but they will also look very different in just about every other industry. If I had kids thinking of entering this industry, I would tell them to steer away. Looking at the past 20 years it’s not hard to see how the next 20 will look.
The world never went back to what it was pre-9/11. But it became a world where we were able to live our lives.

Same will happen with COVID.

58
Not sure I totally agree, 9-11 will 20 yrs ago this year and for the most part( sad as it was) people(USA) have put it behind them and moved on. Speaking of which if I am reading it correctly, airline business in the US is on a rebound with various airlines adding new routes, rehiring laid off staff, even pilot external hiring talks. This has to be positive for sure, also if you took note of Biden’s latest announcement there will be a general easing of restrictions aka masks,gatherings etc, this will instil confidence going forward. Just saying.
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rudder
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by rudder »

flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:57 am I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.
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Outlaw58
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Outlaw58 »

Old fella wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:24 am
Not sure I totally agree, 9-11 will 20 yrs ago this year and for the most part( sad as it was) people(USA) have put it behind them and moved on.
I was making reference to things like new screening procedures at airport, or cockpits that are locked during flights....these things were different pre- 9/11 and are not coming back.

Along the same lines, it is fair to think that the post-pandemic era will see some of the health measures implemented, incorporated into our new way of life.

58
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Outlaw58 »

rudder wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:33 am
flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:57 am I recently saw an article predicting that 75% of our population will be vaccinated (1 shot) and 20% both shots by the end of June or July, so it seems mid-end of summer things may pick up. This 75% and 20% stat is where a large drop off in covid cases occur and we may be able to open the border. Thoughts?
Some provinces will not allow inter-provincial travel. Other provinces not even permitting intra-provincial travel. Rate of vaccination is nothing spectacular, but plodding along to some type of anticipated herd immunity level in the fall.

Federal government currently claims that the idea of a ‘vaccination passport’ is a non-starter. If that is the case, the opportunity for international or trans border travel this summer seems unlikely.

The Feds will keep Canada in a de facto travel lockdown until after Labour Day and the end of the otherwise busy summer travel season. They want kids back in school in September. They want case counts, hospitalization, and transmissibility rates all down to almost pre-pandemic levels.

Any hope for an increasing trend in air travel for Canadians will be in the fall. It is reasonable to think that a booked sun destination trip for winter 2021/2022 will actually happen. There is almost no hope for near term international travel and limited hope for near term domestic freedom to move.

All told, 2021 may end up as a worse year for CDN passenger airlines than 2020.
Your assessment is more than likely spot on, but I choose to be more optimistic than you.

March 2020, I had no idea that such a quick 90 deg turn to the left was possible. We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58
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rudder
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by rudder »

Outlaw58 wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:07 am We may be surprised at how quick to recovery is when the vaccines start to take hold.

58
I am slightly less optimistic about timing for start of travel recovery, however, once it commences I do believe that the rate of recovery will be exponential. The biggest barrier will be jurisdictions that are well behind in rate of vaccination and therefore rate of infection.

I am in the oldest cohort of the ‘still working’ group. In my province my second shot will not happen until very late in the summer. And with the 14 day post-vaccination period for effectiveness, I cannot really be considered fully immunized until after Labour Day. If that is the case for the oldest constituency of the working class, what will it be for the youngest?

Perhaps the vaccine fairy will drop millions of extra doses in Canada and perhaps the provinces will figure out how to increase the rate of daily vaccinations. But I won’t hold my breath. I will believe what I see with my eyes rather than what I hear from politicians.

The airline industry is facing a tough road ahead. We will wax nostalgic about the heady days of 2019 recognizing that there will be no magical snap-back.
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CruiserNU
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by CruiserNU »

I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by newlygrounded »

CruiserNU wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:51 am I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two
My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by digits_ »

Then there is the danger that the government might impose extra restrictions a few weeks after they relaxed them. Then you might want to cancel, but since you can technically still go, airlines or hotels might not be willing to refund you. I predict we'll see a spike of short notice travel when conditions allow, but not many medium or long term bookings.
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by flyingcanuck »

Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by ‘Bob’ »

newlygrounded wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:55 am
CruiserNU wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:51 am I'm not so sure about the "pent-up demand" and its ability to enable a quick recovery of the economy. Many people have been scared shitless over the covid, the job losses and the future. They may keep their money in the bank for a year or two
My perspective in the centre of the universe is everyone who was doing ok before is the same or amazing (many gained 100-300k in just their home value) and their expenses have gone way down from not commuting, going out etc.

I feel like these people are going to have a lot of vacation time they want to use up.
Where are they going to live? Lol!

Sorry but that home value is all academic unless you sell. And then what? Be on the wrong side of a bidding war to get it back and LOSE money!
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Tuza
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by Tuza »

If war starts to take hold, this will be a vastly different thread of information regarding jobs specific to aviation.
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CruiserNU
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by CruiserNU »

flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:16 am Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible
I'd be cautious about believing anything the government says about the economy "bouncing back, stronger than ever". What else can they say but to portray a rosy outlook? Saying anything else will erode consumer confidence even further.
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Re: What will happen to our industry?

Post by alkaseltzer »

CruiserNU wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:37 pm
flyingcanuck wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:16 am Well we can also look south of the border to see how fast things are rebounding there. I highly doubt we will be the same but its possible
I'd be cautious about believing anything the government says about the economy "bouncing back, stronger than ever". What else can they say but to portray a rosy outlook? Saying anything else will erode consumer confidence even further.
There’s more than a million immigrants itching to set their roots in Canada which they couldn’t do from the pandemic. Taps will flow.

Things will get better.
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