Will this industry ever recover?

[Hot Wings]

It’s your life to live but I recommend whatever you do don’t make important life decisions based on some exaggerated hypothetical situation you made up. Imagining yourself as a victim as a means of showing strength is just going to screw you in the long run. It’s just quitter shit and fine if you don’t pursue aviation, it’s not for everyone, but if this response to the possibility of any trace amount of hardship is a pattern for you I can’t stress enough how much better off you’ll be to not do that.

Or do, I’m not your guidance counselor.

It’s like the angry people who come out complaining about minimum wage and how it’s not enough to be a living wage. “I can’t buy a detached house in Toronto making min wage so I can’t live!” When could min wage ever buy someone a house in Toronto?

Who is saying this? I've not met a single person who wants a detached house and expect to get it on min wage. Some people want a sense of stability and to be able to afford rent with a full time job. I think that's a fair ask.

Didn’t this guy have a recent thread similarly whining about everything?

And? If complaining is a turn off I'm surprised you're on AV

The whole “it’s taken me four years to get a PPL done and it’s the school’s fault” thing. Perhaps just go do something else and stop bitching about an industry you’re not even part of.

[newlygrounded]

It’s like the angry people who come out complaining about minimum wage and how it’s not enough to be a living wage. “I can’t buy a detached house in Toronto making min wage so I can’t live!” When could min wage ever buy someone a house in Toronto?

Who is saying this? I've not met a single person who wants a detached house and expect to get it on min wage. Some people want a sense of stability and to be able to afford rent with a full time job. I think that's a fair ask.

Didn’t this guy have a recent thread similarly whining about everything?

And? If complaining is a turn off I'm surprised you're on AV

The whole “it’s taken me four years to get a PPL done and it’s the school’s fault” thing. Perhaps just go do something else and stop bitching about an industry you’re not even part of.

So people can't vent bad experiences? I don't get you. You are mad someone sticks to something, but also mad if they give up?

[co-joe]

How many furloughed pilots just wont come back to their jobs? I know of quite a few that have started up businesses, or found better paying gigs for less time away. I’d never recommend this job to anyone starting out there are tons of other things you could do, all with a much better work life balance and better pay. I mean take a look at teachers salary, their net income (after tax) is going to be around $2M after 30 years. Even an AC pilot will likely be around $2.5M net income over the course of there career. Anyone starting out today should seriously consider what that extra $500k is actually worth. Summers off, work 10 months a year, no weekends. Hell its a no brainer for me, but the truth is the old guard doesn’t have a fucking clue how much this industry sucks for new people starting out and it’s only going to get worse over the next 10 years and our entire society thinks pilots high on the hog, when in reality they live on kraft dinner and hot dogs.

That is some dodgy math. $2M over 30 years is ~$67k per year after tax. That’s probably a little high but whatever. If your AC pilot spends 30 years there then they’d already have 5-10 years of flying under their belt, although probably for not much money (~$50k after tax). Let’s say you upgrade after 10 years at AC and are a narrow body CA for the last 20 years. That’d be career earnings of around $3.6M. I fully agree the industry can suck nuts for people starting out (the few pre COVID years aside), but there is certainly high earning potential beyond what a lot of careers can offer if you’re able to put up with the bullshit for a few years to get yourself to the airline. And don’t forget about the good pension…. At the end of the day it can be a very good career for a lot of people, especially if you never lose that passion for flying. For those who see flying as just a job and nothing else, I think the outlook is much different. And don’t forget that it’s very possible for pilots to have a great career with less earnings, but a better lifestyle doing other types of flying.

Keep in mind that of roughly 10 000 ATPL pilots in canada, only about 3500 of them every made it to AC. Basically 1/3 chance of getting that income, if you make it to the ATP level. The odds get way worse if you look at total CPL + ATPL is more like a 23% chance of making that 3.6 Mill. I never will.

[pitottubey]

3500 out of the current 10,000 ATPL pilots? Wouldn't the 6500 non AC include pilots in the regionals making their way up to AC?

[scdriver]

How many furloughed pilots just wont come back to their jobs? I know of quite a few that have started up businesses, or found better paying gigs for less time away. I’d never recommend this job to anyone starting out there are tons of other things you could do, all with a much better work life balance and better pay. I mean take a look at teachers salary, their net income (after tax) is going to be around $2M after 30 years. Even an AC pilot will likely be around $2.5M net income over the course of there career. Anyone starting out today should seriously consider what that extra $500k is actually worth. Summers off, work 10 months a year, no weekends. Hell its a no brainer for me, but the truth is the old guard doesn’t have a fucking clue how much this industry sucks for new people starting out and it’s only going to get worse over the next 10 years and our entire society thinks pilots high on the hog, when in reality they live on kraft dinner and hot dogs.

That is some dodgy math. $2M over 30 years is ~$67k per year after tax. That’s probably a little high but whatever. If your AC pilot spends 30 years there then they’d already have 5-10 years of flying under their belt, although probably for not much money (~$50k after tax). Let’s say you upgrade after 10 years at AC and are a narrow body CA for the last 20 years. That’d be career earnings of around $3.6M. I fully agree the industry can suck nuts for people starting out (the few pre COVID years aside), but there is certainly high earning potential beyond what a lot of careers can offer if you’re able to put up with the bullshit for a few years to get yourself to the airline. And don’t forget about the good pension…. At the end of the day it can be a very good career for a lot of people, especially if you never lose that passion for flying. For those who see flying as just a job and nothing else, I think the outlook is much different. And don’t forget that it’s very possible for pilots to have a great career with less earnings, but a better lifestyle doing other types of flying.

Keep in mind that of roughly 10 000 ATPL pilots in canada, only about 3500 of them every made it to AC. Basically 1/3 chance of getting that income, if you make it to the ATP level. The odds get way worse if you look at total CPL + ATPL is more like a 23% chance of making that 3.6 Mill. I never will.

Absolutely it’s no guarantee to make it there, but I’m sure lots of those pilots with an ATPL have no interest in working there in the first place. And I’m also sure that lots are simply not up to the standard that AC wants (for whatever reason). But also those numbers paint a shittier picture than would actually be the case because saying 3500 of the current 10000 would mean that nobody who currently has an atpl but works elsewhere will ever work at AC, and that’s obviously not the case. I’m sure the number of current atpls that don’t work there but will one day is pushing 1000.

[pitottubey]

Well said. Just out of curiosity, what are the primary reasons for people that "won't get into AC"? Is it lack of a degree? bad attitude/reputation? Too old?

And to address OP it seems like nearly all regional pilots have been recalled at this point, with some airlines like porter and flair even expanding. While covid isn't fully gone yet, I would imagine all of the regionals will be hiring off the street in 2 years at the latest.

[fish4life]

Well said. Just out of curiosity, what are the primary reasons for people that "won't get into AC"? Is it lack of a degree? bad attitude/reputation? Too old?

And to address OP it seems like nearly all regional pilots have been recalled at this point, with some airlines like porter and flair even expanding. While covid isn't fully gone yet, I would imagine all of the regionals will be hiring off the street in 2 years at the latest.

Honestly AC hiring is a bit of a mystery sometimes. I know of some incredible people and pilots that couldn’t get a job there while others I wouldn’t put family on an aircraft they are operating. Don’t get me wrong there is lots of great people at AC but I also know of some that could never get a job for one reason or another. (I blame the automated psychology tests)

[EPR]

Well said. Just out of curiosity, what are the primary reasons for people that "won't get into AC"? Is it lack of a degree? bad attitude/reputation? Too old?

And to address OP it seems like nearly all regional pilots have been recalled at this point, with some airlines like porter and flair even expanding. While covid isn't fully gone yet, I would imagine all of the regionals will be hiring off the street in 2 years at the latest.

Honestly AC hiring is a bit of a mystery sometimes. I know of some incredible people and pilots that couldn’t get a job there while others I wouldn’t put family on an aircraft they are operating. Don’t get me wrong there is lots of great people at AC but I also know of some that could never get a job for one reason or another. (I blame the automated psychology tests)

Totally agree, there's a book by Richard S Drury called "Flightlines"' and a chapter called "Stick and Rudder".... #TakeHead!

[EPR]

Enjoy you dirty dogs!
!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lCFaSL ... 6A&index=2

[alkaseltzer]

Well said. Just out of curiosity, what are the primary reasons for people that "won't get into AC"? Is it lack of a degree? bad attitude/reputation? Too old?

And to address OP it seems like nearly all regional pilots have been recalled at this point, with some airlines like porter and flair even expanding. While covid isn't fully gone yet, I would imagine all of the regionals will be hiring off the street in 2 years at the latest.

Honestly AC hiring is a bit of a mystery sometimes. I know of some incredible people and pilots that couldn’t get a job there while others I wouldn’t put family on an aircraft they are operating. Don’t get me wrong there is lots of great people at AC but I also know of some that could never get a job for one reason or another. (I blame the automated psychology tests)

Deeper mystery than what happened to MH370.

[Luscombe8a]

I thought the same for a while now. I'm at the tail end of my career, looking forward to fly fishing and finally getting around to the never-ending "Honey-do" list...and then WHAM...furloughed indefinitely. I wasn't planning on retiring now, and I do intend to go back when recalled. What this did for me was to destroy any aspirations I had for early retirement; I'll be working until they drag me out of the cockpit kicking and screaming. This is not because of my love for the industry, but rather economic reasons. This was an Industry I truly loved, but didn't love me back. I had five layoffs (including Covid). I had been lied to and misused/abused by employers throughout my career. Would I have done it all over again, you bet. I can't think of a better bunch of folks than the ones that I had the pleasure of flying with over the decades. I got to see so much of the world from the cockpit of various airplanes from Supercubs to 737's. I suppose I would be in a much better position to retire had I been a Quality Assurance Tester in a brewery or even a Teacher, however I don't think I would have had nearly as much fun.

I really do hope this industry will recover. What it may look like will be different from 2019, but it will recover in it's own image. Let's get back to work.

[HSH17]

I thought the same for a while now. I'm at the tail end of my career, looking forward to fly fishing and finally getting around to the never-ending "Honey-do" list...and then WHAM...furloughed indefinitely. I wasn't planning on retiring now, and I do intend to go back when recalled. What this did for me was to destroy any aspirations I had for early retirement; I'll be working until they drag me out of the cockpit kicking and screaming. This is not because of my love for the industry, but rather economic reasons. This was an Industry I truly loved, but didn't love me back. I had five layoffs (including Covid). I had been lied to and misused/abused by employers throughout my career. Would I have done it all over again, you bet. I can't think of a better bunch of folks than the ones that I had the pleasure of flying with over the decades. I got to see so much of the world from the cockpit of various airplanes from Supercubs to 737's. I suppose I would be in a much better position to retire had I been a Quality Assurance Tester in a brewery or even a Teacher, however I don't think I would have had nearly as much fun.

I really do hope this industry will recover. What it may look like will be different from 2019, but it will recover in it's own image. Let's get back to work.

And unfortunately it’s that exact mindset of “I could never do anything else for a living but fly” that allows employers to consistently make working conditions for employees worse and worse, even when there’s a “pilot shortage”. I agree on that statement of the WORKERS in the industry being fantastic and great to work with, but management seems to enjoy participating in the race to the bottom, especially in Canadian aviation. There’s gonna be a lot of bright people out there who realize this and don’t come back to the industry they once loved. Pretty sad.

[tbayav8er]

I think once everyone is recalled to the airlines, hiring is going to be through the roof again. Just looking at how busy things are getting at the airlines, I think it's a positive sign. As long as the world doesn't get shut down again.

[QKZXKV]

I think once everyone is recalled to the airlines, hiring is going to be through the roof again. Just looking at how busy things are getting at the airlines, I think it's a positive sign. As long as the world doesn't get shut down again.

That "as long as" bit is difficult. The term COVID-22 is already trending.

[tbayav8er]

I think once everyone is recalled to the airlines, hiring is going to be through the roof again. Just looking at how busy things are getting at the airlines, I think it's a positive sign. As long as the world doesn't get shut down again.

That "as long as" bit is difficult. The term COVID-22 is already trending.

Exactly. No one has a crystal ball. I think as long as no more really strict lockdowns/travel restrictions come back, the aviation industry will be in a much better place pretty soon (my speculation would be around new years). If we do get locked down again, and we see interprovincial travel restrictions come back, then things will continue to be crappy.

[BTD]

Hmm. So if things are good, they will be good and if things are bad, they will be bad?

That is a lot of words to say nothing.

P.s. I’m just messing around.

[newlygrounded]

I think once everyone is recalled to the airlines, hiring is going to be through the roof again. Just looking at how busy things are getting at the airlines, I think it's a positive sign. As long as the world doesn't get shut down again.

That "as long as" bit is difficult. The term COVID-22 is already trending.

Exactly. No one has a crystal ball. I think as long as no more really strict lockdowns/travel restrictions come back, the aviation industry will be in a much better place pretty soon (my speculation would be around new years). If we do get locked down again, and we see interprovincial travel restrictions come back, then things will continue to be crappy.

I'm 100% expecting a full shutdown in the winter, rates are already skyrocketing, imagine when everyone is indoors?

[altiplano]

That "as long as" bit is difficult. The term COVID-22 is already trending.

Exactly. No one has a crystal ball. I think as long as no more really strict lockdowns/travel restrictions come back, the aviation industry will be in a much better place pretty soon (my speculation would be around new years). If we do get locked down again, and we see interprovincial travel restrictions come back, then things will continue to be crappy.

I'm 100% expecting a full shutdown in the winter, rates are already skyrocketing, imagine when everyone is indoors?

Why would you expect that?

Already high levels of vaccination.

More vaccinations being required by employers & government.

Mask rules continue widely in most jurisdictions.

Great weather and everyone outside.

Why are cases skyrocketing?

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Why are cases skyrocketing?

• Vaccines don't stop you from getting sick; they reduce the severity and length of symptoms (less likely to need hospitalization or funeral)
• Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
• Unvaccinated (35% of Canada's population) account for 70% of new COVID cases. (Is is the vaccine or is it the associated I don't care attitude?) [Yes, that number is not precise, but it fluctuates around there]

I'll re-emphasize, even if 50 out of 100 new cases were in fully vaccinated people, 65 out of 100 Canadians are fully vaccinated. If you cannot comprehend that concept, you are missing a key mathematical idea that is translatable to your aviation career. Every argument that ignores that makes you look like the kid in school who thinks that 5 nickels is more than 4 dimes because you have more coins.

[BTD]

Why are cases skyrocketing?

• Vaccines don't stop you from getting sick; they reduce the severity and length of symptoms (less likely to need hospitalization or funeral)
• Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
• Unvaccinated (35% of Canada's population) account for 70% of new COVID cases. (Is is the vaccine or is it the associated I don't care attitude?) [Yes, that number is not precise, but it fluctuates around there]

I'll re-emphasize, even if 50 out of 100 new cases were in fully vaccinated people, 65 out of 100 Canadians are fully vaccinated. If you cannot comprehend that concept, you are missing a key mathematical idea that is translatable to your aviation career. Every argument that ignores that makes you look like the kid in school who thinks that 5 nickels is more than 4 dimes because you have more coins.

I’m not sure your realize what Altiplano just did. We know from reading he is not fond of many of the policies put in place regarding covid. He asked a number of questions with a sarcastic tone. Then he got you to make his case for him. His questions were specific to case numbers.

As you point out. Vaccines don’t prevent “cases”. As you point out, people aren’t adhering to mask policy as strictly as before. As you point out, many people no longer have a caring attitude.

So…. If I may be so bold as to finish his line of thinking. If the above is true, why are we still keeping track of cases if they don’t mean much anymore. What good is a mask policy if people aren’t following it? What good are any policies if people no longer care and don’t follow them anyway?

You made his point for him.