Will this industry ever recover?

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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

BTD wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:55 am
notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:29 am
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:48 pm Why are cases skyrocketing?
  • Vaccines don't stop you from getting sick; they reduce the severity and length of symptoms (less likely to need hospitalization or funeral)
  • Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
  • Unvaccinated (35% of Canada's population) account for 70% of new COVID cases. (Is is the vaccine or is it the associated I don't care attitude?) [Yes, that number is not precise, but it fluctuates around there]
I'll re-emphasize, even if 50 out of 100 new cases were in fully vaccinated people, 65 out of 100 Canadians are fully vaccinated. If you cannot comprehend that concept, you are missing a key mathematical idea that is translatable to your aviation career. Every argument that ignores that makes you look like the kid in school who thinks that 5 nickels is more than 4 dimes because you have more coins.
I’m not sure your realize what Altiplano just did. We know from reading he is not fond of many of the policies put in place regarding covid. He asked a number of questions with a sarcastic tone. Then he got you to make his case for him. His questions were specific to case numbers.

As you point out. Vaccines don’t prevent “cases”. As you point out, people aren’t adhering to mask policy as strictly as before. As you point out, many people no longer have a caring attitude.

So…. If I may be so bold as to finish his line of thinking. If the above is true, why are we still keeping track of cases if they don’t mean much anymore. What good is a mask policy if people aren’t following it? What good are any policies if people no longer care and don’t follow them anyway?

You made his point for him.
I will gladly make the point that vaccines don't stop you from getting sick as many times as I need to.

I did not make any other point other than the majority of new cases are (in raw numbers and proportionally) in the unvaccinated population. The idea that it helps him make a point shows me that you did not read and/or understand my bullet points.
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rudder
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by rudder »

It will recover and as predicted and will be 100% but not before 2023 or later depending on global vaccination status.
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altiplano
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by altiplano »

notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:29 am
altiplano wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 11:48 pm Why are cases skyrocketing?
  • Vaccines don't stop you from getting sick; they reduce the severity and length of symptoms (less likely to need hospitalization or funeral)
  • Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
  • Unvaccinated (35% of Canada's population) account for 70% of new COVID cases. (Is is the vaccine or is it the associated I don't care attitude?) [Yes, that number is not precise, but it fluctuates around there]
I'll re-emphasize, even if 50 out of 100 new cases were in fully vaccinated people, 65 out of 100 Canadians are fully vaccinated. If you cannot comprehend that concept, you are missing a key mathematical idea that is translatable to your aviation career. Every argument that ignores that makes you look like the kid in school who thinks that 5 nickels is more than 4 dimes because you have more coins.
LOL...

You're so thick!

There are variables at play that aren't being brought up in your basic methodology which understand as comprehension.

Garbage in, garbage out...
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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

altiplano wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:31 am You're so thick!
Are you body shaming me?
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QKZXKV
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by QKZXKV »

tbayav8er wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:10 pm
QKZXKV wrote: Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:24 pm
tbayav8er wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 7:26 pm I think once everyone is recalled to the airlines, hiring is going to be through the roof again. Just looking at how busy things are getting at the airlines, I think it's a positive sign. As long as the world doesn't get shut down again.
That "as long as" bit is difficult. The term COVID-22 is already trending.
Exactly. No one has a crystal ball. I think as long as no more really strict lockdowns/travel restrictions come back, the aviation industry will be in a much better place pretty soon (my speculation would be around new years). If we do get locked down again, and we see interprovincial travel restrictions come back, then things will continue to be crappy.
agreed!
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BTD
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by BTD »

notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 6:11 am
BTD wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:55 am
notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 5:29 am
  • Vaccines don't stop you from getting sick; they reduce the severity and length of symptoms (less likely to need hospitalization or funeral)
  • Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
  • Unvaccinated (35% of Canada's population) account for 70% of new COVID cases. (Is is the vaccine or is it the associated I don't care attitude?) [Yes, that number is not precise, but it fluctuates around there]
I'll re-emphasize, even if 50 out of 100 new cases were in fully vaccinated people, 65 out of 100 Canadians are fully vaccinated. If you cannot comprehend that concept, you are missing a key mathematical idea that is translatable to your aviation career. Every argument that ignores that makes you look like the kid in school who thinks that 5 nickels is more than 4 dimes because you have more coins.
I’m not sure your realize what Altiplano just did. We know from reading he is not fond of many of the policies put in place regarding covid. He asked a number of questions with a sarcastic tone. Then he got you to make his case for him. His questions were specific to case numbers.

As you point out. Vaccines don’t prevent “cases”. As you point out, people aren’t adhering to mask policy as strictly as before. As you point out, many people no longer have a caring attitude.

So…. If I may be so bold as to finish his line of thinking. If the above is true, why are we still keeping track of cases if they don’t mean much anymore. What good is a mask policy if people aren’t following it? What good are any policies if people no longer care and don’t follow them anyway?

You made his point for him.
I will gladly make the point that vaccines don't stop you from getting sick as many times as I need to.

I did not make any other point other than the majority of new cases are (in raw numbers and proportionally) in the unvaccinated population. The idea that it helps him make a point shows me that you did not read and/or understand my bullet points.

I’m not sure you understand what you said. As noted below
I did not make any other point other than the majority of new cases are (in raw numbers and proportionally) in the unvaccinated population.
Except you did.
[*]Mask fatigue. People are less willing to continue strict COVID protocols.
This point is literally a bullet point in your previous post. :rolleyes:
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altiplano
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by altiplano »

LOL!!!
Screenshot_20210826-140041.png
Screenshot_20210826-140041.png (1.18 MiB) Viewed 6629 times
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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

altiplano wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:01 pm LOL!!!

Screenshot_20210826-140041.png
Jokes on you! I only got one eyebrow...
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altiplano
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by altiplano »

notwhoyouthinkIam wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:03 pm
altiplano wrote: Thu Aug 26, 2021 2:01 pm LOL!!!

Screenshot_20210826-140041.png
Jokes on you! I only got one eyebrow...
Hahaha.
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Koalemos
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by Koalemos »

newlygrounded wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:39 pm It seems like every week there is either some bad news or some permanent agreement lowering pilot wages another 20% forever.

I once wanted to pursue a pilot career but even in the best 2/3 years in history it seemed your best bet was to drive a forklift for at least a year to make $20,000 a year in the middle of nowhere. I can't imagine how it will be in a few months?
The state of the airline industry in Canada from a pilots perspective is atrocious. And it will get worse. Case in point is that recently the association supposedly representing Air Canada pilots negotiated a 10% PAY CUT for cargo operations. And the pilot group voted YES. This is during a time when cargo demand is increasing.

And yet, supposedly AC is the top of the Canadian airline industry for WAWCON. Pay and contract conditions have steadily gone down in the last 20 years. If things didn’t improve in the boom times, they won’t in the recovery.

In contrast, regional USA airlines are paying more than Air Canada mainline and giving huge bonuses for retention and flow through to their majors due to their recovery.
https://www.alpa.org/news-and-events/ne ... nal-pilots

That is simply one example. When asked I recommend people not become a pilot in Canada. If they are able to work in the states, then by all means go for it. The states airline industry is in an entirely different place than ours is, and it doesn’t look like that will change.
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pitottubey
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by pitottubey »

Koalemos wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:29 am
newlygrounded wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 7:39 pm It seems like every week there is either some bad news or some permanent agreement lowering pilot wages another 20% forever.

I once wanted to pursue a pilot career but even in the best 2/3 years in history it seemed your best bet was to drive a forklift for at least a year to make $20,000 a year in the middle of nowhere. I can't imagine how it will be in a few months?
The state of the airline industry in Canada from a pilots perspective is atrocious. And it will get worse. Case in point is that recently the association supposedly representing Air Canada pilots negotiated a 10% PAY CUT for cargo operations. And the pilot group voted YES. This is during a time when cargo demand is increasing.

And yet, supposedly AC is the top of the Canadian airline industry for WAWCON. Pay and contract conditions have steadily gone down in the last 20 years. If things didn’t improve in the boom times, they won’t in the recovery.

In contrast, regional USA airlines are paying more than Air Canada mainline and giving huge bonuses for retention and flow through to their majors due to their recovery.
https://www.alpa.org/news-and-events/ne ... nal-pilots

That is simply one example. When asked I recommend people not become a pilot in Canada. If they are able to work in the states, then by all means go for it. The states airline industry is in an entirely different place than ours is, and it doesn’t look like that will change.
Well if this American pilot visa thing goes through that all WILL change I would have to think
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digits_
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by digits_ »

Koalemos wrote: Thu Sep 02, 2021 9:29 am If they are able to work in the states, then by all means go for it. The states airline industry is in an entirely different place than ours is, and it doesn’t look like that will change.
Things can change really quickly.

2010: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/ ... ours-wages
2014: https://fortune.com/2014/03/03/why-airl ... of-pilots/
2017: https://slate.com/business/2017/09/how- ... -jobs.html

2019: Signing bonuses, retention bonuses
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by Zaibatsu »

All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.
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Koalemos
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by Koalemos »

True enough. The industry is very cyclical. I don’t see the WAWCON improving in Canada much (if it doesn’t get worse), regardless of what the USA does.
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garfield
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by garfield »

1500 hours for FO 705 change a lot of things.

I don't think this industry will ever be back to 2019 levels. Covid is far from over, governements have wayy too much debts and climate change restrictions are coming sooner or later.

Hope I'm wrong
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tbaylx
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by tbaylx »

Zaibatsu wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:31 am All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.
There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.
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Invertago
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by Invertago »

In terms of recovery I think this YYC movements chart shows our direction pretty clearly. As for WAWCON, that should hopefully follow.
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sio31790
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by sio31790 »

tbaylx wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:43 pm
Zaibatsu wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:31 am All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.
There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.
And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...
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alkaseltzer
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by alkaseltzer »

sio31790 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:24 pm
tbaylx wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:43 pm
Zaibatsu wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:31 am All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.
There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.
And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...
We have foreign ATPL pilots flying for hire in Canada?
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imjustlurking
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Re: Will this industry ever recover?

Post by imjustlurking »

sio31790 wrote: Thu Sep 09, 2021 6:24 pm
tbaylx wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 12:43 pm
Zaibatsu wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:31 am All they need now are Canadian pilots to end that and send wages into a spiral again.

American executives management want Canadian pilots. American pilots, probably not so much, lol.
There aren't enough Canadian ATPL pilots to even make a tiny dent in the US hiring requirements. We'd have pretty much zero effect on the US industry even if they hired every single last ATPL in Canada.
And even Canadian ATPL pilots with a lot of experience in 703 can't even move on to the 705. Terrible market still here...
Of course there is not much room for entry into 705 at the moment. Most airlines are still recalling and have a list of pilots that they must offer recall to before they can hire off of the street.

It's not as bad for the regionals, but still a thing.
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