Recession incoming

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C.W.E.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. » Wed Oct 09, 2019 7:03 pm

If we agreed all the time there would be something weird about us.

One thing for sure I prefer retirement to working. :D
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Mr. North » Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:20 pm

The weakness of western democracies could not be more evident than this election. No substance or fresh ideas. Nothing but manufactured politically correct bullshit. A polarising mainstream media bereft of any real journalism, driven by clicks and sensationalism. But who cares when no one reads beyond the headlines within their little echo chamber? Politicians staging every 10 second soundbite or photo op to get votes to win office, only to spend next four years governing in preparation for the next election. Will we, as a nation, ever think beyond the next election cycle? You know, like long term strategic thinking, the kind that elevates nations?

While we get offended by each others genders, China has lifted close to a billion people out of poverty, will soon be the largest economy, is busy stealing IP and rearming like crazy. Russia is doing whatever the hell it wants because all of Europe is dependant on it for oil & gas. Both of those countries are lead by LEADERS who rightfully or wrongly are thinking decades beyond what our politicians are capable of. I mean we're bankrupting Alberta but still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation waging an illegal/immoral war and whose leader murdered and journalist in an embassy?! Why are we not talking about this?! Why are we only talking about blackface, or a 16 year old eco-fanatic? When will the adults take over?!
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian » Thu Oct 10, 2019 1:31 am

An adult used to be someone over 18. Now I actually have met one of my daughter's 16 year old friends that seems ok. My wife has a friend and she has two more but...

Have you spoken to many people from 20 to mid 30 years old? Hopefully I just kept meeting odd ones but they were like little kids.

Anyway, I'm going to try to switch gears. All my complaining is not going to help.

Try to avoid too much debt folks.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:38 am

Mr. North wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:20 pm
I mean we're bankrupting Alberta but still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation waging an illegal/immoral war and whose leader murdered and journalist in an embassy?! Why are we not talking about this?! Why are we only talking about blackface, or a 16 year old eco-fanatic? When will the adults take over?!
You know the answer. Debate was a farce, look at who was at the table. Everyone would rather BK Alberta, to appease a Quebec government advocating separatism if it doesn't get it's way at all times. That is not a nation.

Just leave. Please, then.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano » Thu Oct 10, 2019 5:59 am

Mr. North wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:20 pm
The weakness of western democracies could not be more evident than this election. No substance or fresh ideas. Nothing but manufactured politically correct bullshit. A polarising mainstream media bereft of any real journalism, driven by clicks and sensationalism. But who cares when no one reads beyond the headlines within their little echo chamber? Politicians staging every 10 second soundbite or photo op to get votes to win office, only to spend next four years governing in preparation for the next election. Will we, as a nation, ever think beyond the next election cycle? You know, like long term strategic thinking, the kind that elevates nations?

While we get offended by each others genders, China has lifted close to a billion people out of poverty, will soon be the largest economy, is busy stealing IP and rearming like crazy. Russia is doing whatever the hell it wants because all of Europe is dependant on it for oil & gas. Both of those countries are lead by LEADERS who rightfully or wrongly are thinking decades beyond what our politicians are capable of. I mean we're bankrupting Alberta but still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation waging an illegal/immoral war and whose leader murdered and journalist in an embassy?! Why are we not talking about this?! Why are we only talking about blackface, or a 16 year old eco-fanatic? When will the adults take over?!
Big plus one.
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Old fella
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Old fella » Thu Oct 10, 2019 6:06 am

My favourite guy is the bow tie dude who has the big airport named after him, I can even remember the flag debate now that had the masses going. If Twitter and FB were around, oh boy........
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by AnonPilot » Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:59 am

Mr. North wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:20 pm
The weakness of western democracies could not be more evident than this election. No substance or fresh ideas. Nothing but manufactured politically correct bullshit. A polarising mainstream media bereft of any real journalism, driven by clicks and sensationalism. But who cares when no one reads beyond the headlines within their little echo chamber? Politicians staging every 10 second soundbite or photo op to get votes to win office, only to spend next four years governing in preparation for the next election. Will we, as a nation, ever think beyond the next election cycle? You know, like long term strategic thinking, the kind that elevates nations?

While we get offended by each others genders, China has lifted close to a billion people out of poverty, will soon be the largest economy, is busy stealing IP and rearming like crazy. Russia is doing whatever the hell it wants because all of Europe is dependant on it for oil & gas. Both of those countries are lead by LEADERS who rightfully or wrongly are thinking decades beyond what our politicians are capable of. I mean we're bankrupting Alberta but still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation waging an illegal/immoral war and whose leader murdered and journalist in an embassy?! Why are we not talking about this?! Why are we only talking about blackface, or a 16 year old eco-fanatic? When will the adults take over?!
While I do agree with the lack of leadership in this Canadian election it must be said that the difference between Canada and Russia/China in terms of long term vision is that the heads of those countries KNOW they will be in power for decades to come. They don't have to justify their actions/decisions to anyone. I'm not sure that's the kind of leadership we want in Western society.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by lownslow » Thu Oct 10, 2019 8:23 am

AnonPilot wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:59 am
I'm not sure that's the kind of leadership we want in Western society.
Of course that’s what we all want, we just can’t agree on a dictator.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by shawnthesheep » Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:52 am

What is the chance of the industry just shutting down in 3-5 years? Airlines are starting to go belly up in Europe. Are there similar chances that it will happen in Canada?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by valleyboy » Thu Oct 10, 2019 11:24 am

Recession is always coming it's just the timing that is hard to know. We all ride the crests and troughs. Some are luckier than others. One fact - recession effects the north a lot less than the southern guys.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot » Thu Oct 10, 2019 12:06 pm

shawnthesheep wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:52 am
What is the chance of the industry just shutting down in 3-5 years? Airlines are starting to go belly up in Europe. Are there similar chances that it will happen in Canada?
Consumers are indebted, + low cost airlines are blowing up.

Doesn't sound that bullish for new pilots looking out a little while.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by dumbbell daddy » Sat Oct 12, 2019 8:37 pm

Mr. North wrote:
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:20 pm
The weakness of western democracies could not be more evident than this election. No substance or fresh ideas. Nothing but manufactured politically correct bullshit. A polarising mainstream media bereft of any real journalism, driven by clicks and sensationalism. But who cares when no one reads beyond the headlines within their little echo chamber? Politicians staging every 10 second soundbite or photo op to get votes to win office, only to spend next four years governing in preparation for the next election. Will we, as a nation, ever think beyond the next election cycle? You know, like long term strategic thinking, the kind that elevates nations?

While we get offended by each others genders, China has lifted close to a billion people out of poverty, will soon be the largest economy, is busy stealing IP and rearming like crazy. Russia is doing whatever the hell it wants because all of Europe is dependant on it for oil & gas. Both of those countries are lead by LEADERS who rightfully or wrongly are thinking decades beyond what our politicians are capable of. I mean we're bankrupting Alberta but still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, a nation waging an illegal/immoral war and whose leader murdered and journalist in an embassy?! Why are we not talking about this?! Why are we only talking about blackface, or a 16 year old eco-fanatic? When will the adults take over?!
+1. Perfect!
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rxl » Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:19 pm

I thought that this was apropos to the question of politcal leadership raised in this thread.
Here is what The President of the United States of America or The Prime Minister of Canada should sound like -
https://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?fl ... transcript
Where are the world leaders of this man's stature and intellect in the 21st century?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Heliian » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:24 am

shawnthesheep wrote:
Thu Oct 10, 2019 9:52 am
What is the chance of the industry just shutting down in 3-5 years? Airlines are starting to go belly up in Europe. Are there similar chances that it will happen in Canada?
Hahahahaha!!!

I'd be worried when airlines stop going belly up.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:38 pm

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world-ha ... ray-dalio/

I suggest reading this, and think real hard about your own financial situation, instead of laughing as most seem to be these days.

Ray Dalio runs the world's biggest hedge fund. He might know a wee bit more than your friendly, pet rock bank financial advisor.

This guy, and many of his billionaire peers, are saying exactly the same thing.

Maybe one or 2 young pilots will read this and get their house in order while there is still time. The rest of you, do whatever floats your boat.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:07 pm

Yes, but we cannot confuse personal debt with government debt. They are very different. Also, in Canada, the banks are protected by the government to an extent not seen in other countries.
But effectively, the one percent has, and continues to, vacuum up all the money, and somehow blaming the taxpayers/governments, for it. Witness Alberta. I ask who might have a vested interest in blaming the government for everything, instead of being scrutinised by elected people?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by photofly » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:18 pm

ayseven wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:07 pm
Yes, but we cannot confuse personal debt with government debt. They are very different.
You mean you *don't* print your own banknotes? and you can't inflate your way out of your mortgage? Gad, man, what's the matter with you?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven » Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:37 pm

Ha! Good try, but inflation during Weimar was long underway before government printed their money in large amounts. Why is it called "growth" if a business increases profits, but "inflation" if workers get a raise?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by iflyforpie » Fri Nov 08, 2019 3:00 pm

Because the workers spend their money, whereas most businesses and wealthier individuals invest. It’s the liquidity of the economy that drives inflation.

A tale of two economies:

In one—North America during WWII, you had a war economy. Lots of government money and debt being spent on servicemen that went off to war and housewives who entered the workforce for the first time. The situation was ripe for record inflation. The inflation was checked by war bond drives that prevented that cash from being spent and also being used to underwrite further government debt. In combination with the lack of consumer goods being produced, inflation was relatively minimal.

In the other—the UK in the 1970s—you had out of control inflation. You had left-wing labour governments controlled by trade unions who subjected the wealthy to a super tax (95%... literally “one for you nineteen for me” as Harrison wrote in Taxman), created a nascent welfare state, and made businesses uncompetitive with union demands (which resulted in the amalgamation and nationalization of many industries.. further reducing the government’s bottom line). Rather than investing... the union members with their defined benefits pensions and welfare states simply spent their newfound wealth. Prices rose, and wages rose, so prices rose more. Eventually the government had to introduce price and wage controls to prevent the complete devaluation of the currency.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven » Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:24 pm

Spending IS the economy. You are so off base it isn't funny. Investing is usually just hording, dead money, useless to anybody.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by flyingcanuck » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:39 am

ayseven wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 5:24 pm
Spending IS the economy. You are so off base it isn't funny. Investing is usually just hording, dead money, useless to anybody.
I think that what they're saying is in a recession it would not be as bad because people would have savings vs spending it all. So I guess that means if we spend more we have greater good times but greater bad times as well?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:56 am

There is no reason for bad times.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by BigQ » Sat Nov 16, 2019 7:59 am

But they happen anyways.

Read Human Action, by Ludwig Von Mises. Lots of good knowledge in the Austrian School of Economics on human psychology and its effects on the market.

Mises.org
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:00 pm

Well they shouldn't, but i guess people just do what everybody else does, instead of living their own routines.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by hithere » Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:31 pm

I’m only referring to pilot movement/flight crew hiring etc but in all other previous recessions, pilot hiring ground to a halt as airlines stopped expanding or parked aircraft. However the current environment differs from the past(at least in the AC world which let’s face it, is the biggest driver in pilot hiring in Canada anyway) in that even if AC did not grow one more route, their massive wave of baby boomer retirements will still require unprecedented numbers of new hire pilots. This is unlike anything we have seen before. The last time we saw such new hire requirements was in the late 1970s/early 1980s during deregulation but that was entirely due to growth and not due to retirements. This is why, for the first time in over 30 years, I would encourage someone to get into the industry.
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