Recession incoming

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Heliian
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Heliian »

SkySailor wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:32 pm
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:29 pm
If you had a million in cash and your worried about inflation or failing investments?

Commercial income property. Something like a small strip mall or medical building or maybe small light industrial or storage. Something with a safe or diversified or adaptable income source where you can meet your fixed payments and still have a bit of income even with high vacancies. Something outside of overly inflated real estate markets (has to be for only a million) but in an area not dependent on only one or two industries.

That’s what I’d do.


The million in cash was a hypothetical amount. In the real world,
IF you are doing anything but sitting you are taking risk. You cannot forsee how the next year will play out. The economy is dissolving rapidly. The big cash infusions are a temporary measure and recovery can only happen when the people have recovered from this pandemic.

Its your money, do whatever you like.

I will continue to hold onto my assets until the inevitable rebound.
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BigQ
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by BigQ »

The best time to buy back into the market is when the officials formally announce "We are in a recession", which is 2 consecutive quarters of contraction.

By that logic, a good time to buy back in will be June-August
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

Heliian wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:27 am

Its your money, do whatever you like.
Good advice.

Building a bunker and filling with spam is always an option....................
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Beefitarian
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

Forget that noise. I'm buying that Hereford brand corned beef from Brazil.

What do you think about silver right now?
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

Nahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

SPAM FUTURES......Ultimate store of value
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Beefitarian
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

I don't know anyone that got in on time but TP seemed bullish.
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SkySailor
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by SkySailor »

I will continue to hold onto my assets until the inevitable rebound.
[/quote]

OK, when the inevitable rebound happens, what are you putting your assets in? One big generic mutual fund? Please elaborate.

As for the Spam/Hereford suggestion, not really a great investment idea. To prevent short term starvation, ok fine. Throw it in your 72 hour bug out bag before they lockdown the grocery stores. BTW Beefy, don't wanna ruin your drooling over Hereford (Homer Simpson donut obsession?), but have you checked the sodium content in that highly processed crap? It has apx 3 days of recommended sodium limits in one can! Better choke down a pile of potassium to offset it.

Bunkers? Not an investment choice. Besides, bunkers don't work in an apartment building.

Silver? Why not gold? The problem is these are precious metals. Also known as commodities. Commodities are generally not considered to be investments. They trade on a smaller, more finicky market with different fundamentals than massive world equity markets. Trying to determine future valuations of commodities is like palm reading. Gold seems to be a reasonable hedge for inflation (think governments promising billions in aid, currency printing presses in high gear), but the same could almost be said for residential housing. At least gold is tangible, and better yet, shiny! Perhaps a very small percentage of gold miners in a portfolio who have a LONG history of low debt and stable dividends.

What's a realistic annual rate of return in a conservative retirement fund (market volatility aside)? 5 percent?
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Beefitarian
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

Silver just dropped like nearly .25 of it's value and it's still an easy to recognize physical asset if the Canadian dollar collapses from people collecting $2000/month instead of working to submit tax dollars.

You want to pack ounces of gold to barter with go ahead. "Hello, I'd like to trade this ounce of gold for a tank of stale gas please." You might get preferred service to me and my crappy silver I suppose.

Edit: Oh, you are buying a certificate saying you own shares in gold in an undisclosed location. Good luck cashing that in.
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SkySailor
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by SkySailor »

BigQ wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:42 am
The best time to buy back into the market is when the officials formally announce "We are in a recession", which is 2 consecutive quarters of contraction.

By that logic, a good time to buy back in will be June-August
Timing the market is an impossible task, and dangerous. I get the buy low, sell high approach, but you're suggestion of June to August as a "buy in" time might be, respectfully, premature. Regardless of how we handle this virus, corporate quarterly earnings reflecting economic wreckage will start hitting the markets by June. Volatility will be jacked up. The markets might test new lows. IIRC in late 2008, the DJI lost 40-45 percent? Today's market ain't near that yet.
Over time, a market "floor" may be determined. This will be the low level that despite doomsday predictions, buyers will recognize an oversold market and wade in with renewed buying. I don't know when this time will be (if I did, I'd be selling the info), but I don't think it'll be this summer.
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SkySailor
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by SkySailor »

Beefitarian wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:34 pm
Silver just dropped like nearly .25 of it's value and it's still an easy to recognize physical asset if the Canadian dollar collapses from people collecting $2000/month instead of working to submit tax dollars.

You want to pack ounces of gold to barter with go ahead. "Hello, I'd like to trade this ounce of gold for a tank of stale gas please." You might get preferred service to me and my crappy silver I suppose.

Edit: Oh, you are buying a certificate saying you own shares in gold in an undisclosed location. Good luck cashing that in.
Clearly we are on diverging tracks here.

Since thread drift is off the chart for this one, and it was inevitable that discussion would focus on "Doomsday Prepping" (silver coin payment an' all), let's talk "Bunkers, Beans and Bullets".......
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Beefitarian
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

I'm in Canada. I can't just go buy bullets. Or toilet paper. Or beans..
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BigQ
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by BigQ »

SkySailor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:46 pm
BigQ wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:42 am
The best time to buy back into the market is when the officials formally announce "We are in a recession", which is 2 consecutive quarters of contraction.

By that logic, a good time to buy back in will be June-August
Timing the market is an impossible task, and dangerous. I get the buy low, sell high approach, but you're suggestion of June to August as a "buy in" time might be, respectfully, premature. Regardless of how we handle this virus, corporate quarterly earnings reflecting economic wreckage will start hitting the markets by June. Volatility will be jacked up. The markets might test new lows. IIRC in late 2008, the DJI lost 40-45 percent? Today's market ain't near that yet.
Over time, a market "floor" may be determined. This will be the low level that despite doomsday predictions, buyers will recognize an oversold market and wade in with renewed buying. I don't know when this time will be (if I did, I'd be selling the info), but I don't think it'll be this summer.
Timing the exact market is a dangerous proposition, timing the broad market and macro-economic forces, is called swing trading.
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ayseven
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven »

I know exactly what I am doing: NOTHING. It is the best long term solution.
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