Pilot outlook 2020-2039

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Airbusa3
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Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Airbusa3 »

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/marke ... n-outlook/

What do you guys think about this? Is it a good time to invest in flight training?
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digits_
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by digits_ »

In the history of aviation, there has never been an aircraft manufacturer or training provider that has ever recommended people not to train, or that has forecasted a surplus of pilots. Never.

I'm also forecasting economic prosperous time, and the total demise of civilization.


No, now is not a good time for flight training if your goal is to find employment as a pilot. If it's just for fun, go for it. It's always a good time to spend money on flying. It's rarely a good time to "invest" in flying.
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

I don’t buy into the “sky is falling” attitudes of many on this board. Sure this is quite the rough patch, but the industry is cyclical, and no downturn is permanent. Covid will drive many from the industry. If it’s something you truly want, then you’ll likely be able to find a way - it just wont be as easy as it was a year ago. A couple of years out I think we’ll be well on our way to a thriving industry again, but a lot of companies will fail in the meantime.
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ayseven
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by ayseven »

You will never know how good it is out of aviation until you have spent time IN aviation. That is when you can start appreciating life. There are many happy, well adjusted people around. I just haven't met very many.
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digits_
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by digits_ »

Blowin' In The Wind wrote: Mon Nov 16, 2020 10:36 pm I don’t buy into the “sky is falling” attitudes of many on this board. Sure this is quite the rough patch, but the industry is cyclical, and no downturn is permanent. Covid will drive many from the industry. If it’s something you truly want, then you’ll likely be able to find a way - it just wont be as easy as it was a year ago. A couple of years out I think we’ll be well on our way to a thriving industry again, but a lot of companies will fail in the meantime.
Sure, but that doesn't make it a good time to "invest" in flight training. If you're looking at aviation in those terms -which is perfectly fine to do-, then the answer is almost always 'no'.

Actually, to generalize a bit more, if you feel the need to ask if commercial aviation is a smart decision or a wise investment, the answer is "no, and it isn't for you".
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by goingnowherefast »

Between 2020 and 2039, there will probably be another prosperous time, and another recession and another prosperous time. I expect an economic recovery and back to "pilot shortage" around 2023-2025, things will go well until about 2030. Then the next "end of the world" event, recession from 2030 to 2032, and around 2033 things will be going great just in time for the 2040 recession.

Things tend to go in roughly 10 year cycles.
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Launchpad1
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Launchpad1 »

I'd say the 'good' years in aviation go in 7 year cycles.

There was 9/11 in 2001, the down turn lasted about 1 year. Then 7 years of aviation growth.

Then the financial crash of 2008, the down turn lasted about 5 years until 2013. Then 7 years of aviation growth.

Worldwide pandemic of 2020, down turn probably going to last about 3 years. Then you'll get another 7 years of growth.

Probably the best time to start training for a commercial Pilot licence this time is going to be in 2024.
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

I wouldn’t wait that long. Early bird gets the worm.
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by goingnowherefast »

If I were starting with 0 today, I'd aim to have my training done early 2022. Balance working and training to enter the aviation industry as low debt as possible spring of 2022. Might be a bit tough for the first little while as things slowly start to pick up. The aim is to be at the beginning of the wave, and ride it as long as possible. Get a good seat early and stay there, having 5 years seniority somewhere when the next crisis hits will hopefully keep you employed for the ~2030 economic dump.
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geodoc
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by geodoc »

I'd get a company going that did something like, say .................... residential and industrial doors and windows. Make a pile of money and then have a stable to include a Citation Ultra, a KIngAir -350, a Staggerwing, a Turbo Beaver, a DC-3, a DeHavilland Dragon and maybe a P-47.
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Broker
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Broker »

Join the Airforce. Best training available and you can be a civilian pilot after your tour when aviation is going all out again. The need and desire to travel has not ended. It is just temporarily suspended.
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mixturerich
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by mixturerich »

Broker wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:47 am Join the Airforce. Best training available and you can be a civilian pilot after your tour when aviation is going all out again. The need and desire to travel has not ended. It is just temporarily suspended.
Right now this is the most underrated and almost surefire way to get your foot in the piloting door.
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Launchpad1
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Launchpad1 »

Right now this is the most underrated and almost surefire way to get your foot in the piloting door.
How many Pilots does the Canadian Air Force actually need though? Compared to the size of Canadas population it's pretty small.

Would be an amazing job flying CF-18's if you can get in.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Ash Ketchum »

Launchpad1 wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 8:23 am
Right now this is the most underrated and almost surefire way to get your foot in the piloting door.
How many Pilots does the Canadian Air Force actually need though? Compared to the size of Canadas population it's pretty small.

Would be an amazing job flying CF-18's if you can get in.
I applied to DEO pilot at the RCAF. My detachment told me I was the fifth laid off airline pilot to inquire that week and that they are no longer hiring pilots at the moment.
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Launchpad1
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Launchpad1 »

I applied to DEO pilot at the RCAF. My detachment told me I was the fifth laid off airline pilot to inquire that week and that they are no longer hiring pilots at the moment.
Yes that's unfortunately the truth of it, everyone has the same idea... well I'll give the military a go, always wanted to do it anyway so now's the time etc etc. Military Pilot is hard to get into at the best of times (unless you live in the USA where they have 50000 fastjets etc) it's even harder when recruitment stops in the airlines.

The steps for me were pretty much: I'll try the military - not hiring, I'll try and make a UAV business - there's just no money in it unless you're right at the top end, I'll try and do an online business of any type - every man and his dog are trying to dropship stuff on shopify, I'll try driving a van at Amazon - that's currently what I'm trying to get into.

I'd be genuinely curious to know if anyone made a success of an online business during these times.

Sorry for the thread drift!
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Ash Ketchum »

Launchpad1 wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:21 pm
I applied to DEO pilot at the RCAF. My detachment told me I was the fifth laid off airline pilot to inquire that week and that they are no longer hiring pilots at the moment.
Yes that's unfortunately the truth of it, everyone has the same idea... well I'll give the military a go, always wanted to do it anyway so now's the time etc etc. Military Pilot is hard to get into at the best of times (unless you live in the USA where they have 50000 fastjets etc) it's even harder when recruitment stops in the airlines.

The steps for me were pretty much: I'll try the military - not hiring, I'll try and make a UAV business - there's just no money in it unless you're right at the top end, I'll try and do an online business of any type - every man and his dog are trying to dropship stuff on shopify, I'll try driving a van at Amazon - that's currently what I'm trying to get into.

I'd be genuinely curious to know if anyone made a success of an online business during these times.

Sorry for the thread drift!
I actually tried the UAV thing too when the military wasn't hiring. I fly drones as a hobby and wanted to buy a thermal imaging drone but realized I couldn't afford to get to the top end clients and the bottom end of the business is oversaturated. I have a semi successful online business currently but I am using my programming skills from before flying to work as a consultant. Everything related to ecommerce/drop shipping/Shopify is oversaturated and very tough to make money unless you have a unique product or large social media following.
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Launchpad1
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Re: Pilot outlook 2020-2039

Post by Launchpad1 »

That's the exact conclusion I came to too. I've never much been into the social media selling yourself stuff so, like you say, you would have to have a pretty incredible product.

I tried doing some product licensing to companies, went as far as blowing $1500 on a patent pending. Didn't get very far though. I even invented a brand new way of eating corn on the cob that's much safer for kids. No one cared though lol.

Good on you for succeeding with your online business :)
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