Flair struggling?

[Donald]

Pilots voting to strike.

Swoop starting next month.

Loads are down and flights being consolidated.

Now they are offering $2 base fares....where have I seen that strategy before?? (Jetsgo)

Is the writing on the wall for Flair?

[Donald]

86FAC6E8-824D-4CAF-ADEF-35274CC3F183.jpeg (152.84 KiB) Viewed 5387 times

[FL007]

Pilots voting to strike.

Swoop starting next month.

Loads are down and flights being consolidated.

Now they are offering $2 base fares....where have I seen that strategy before?? (Jetsgo)

Is the writing on the wall for Flair?

Swoop isn't exactly going to hit the ground running..

I always thought flair was struggling, back when they were a charter business I never thought we'd be talking about them in 2018

[Donald]

I’d be shocked if Swoop doesn’t start out with consistent full loads.

[FL007]

I’d be shocked if Swoop doesn’t start out with consistent full loads.

You think they have all the training done with no wj training captains or management pilots allowed to participate? 10 tails moved over in the next month?

[Donald]

The launch is only 3 tails in June, 6 by September, 10 by next spring.

Yes, I think they’ll be ready.

[FL007]

The launch is only 3 tails in June, 6 by September, 10 by next spring.

Yes, I think they’ll be ready.

We'll see I guess what the wj pilot strike will bring.

[Rowdy]

So let me get this straight.. New leaf starts up and uses flair and can north to operate for them. They bomb.. Flair picks up the slack, effectively 'buying' new leaf. Flairs loads are marginal and their route structure has minimal connections. They now face negotiations at the same time WJ does.

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada. Anyone who tells you otherwise is scheming something else..

[ditar]

I thought history had already demonstrated that the ULCC model doesn’t work in Canada. I never expected this NewLeaf/Flair venture to last as long as it has.

[cncpc]

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada.

That is correct. Over.

[telex]

So let me get this straight.. New leaf starts up and uses flair and can north to operate for them. They bomb.. Flair picks up the slack, effectively 'buying' new leaf. Flairs loads are marginal and their route structure has minimal connections. They now face negotiations at the same time WJ does.

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

In my opinion the ULCC model doesn't work in canada. Anyone who tells you otherwise is scheming something else..

Can you spell it out with plain and simple words for a simple guy like me? What is the connection?

Don't ask the questions, present the answers.

But a question for you; have you ever heard of a guy named BLP?

[Rowdy]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

[telex]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

So a fleet of clapped out -400s with JR selling out his position is going to cripple Wj with a market cap of $2 billion?

Again, I need simple terms please.

You thinks? Or you knows?

How did JR, KF, and all of this mystery bring us to present day?

Please be as specific as you can.

[tbaylx]

The threat of a ULCC is created by the leaders to keep worker costs down. Plain and simple.

Big dollars at stake for WJ's BOD. It'd be foolish to think there wasn't some backdoor politics going on. A little wheeling and dealing with KF and Flair behind closed doors me thinks.

You think the BOD hatched Swoop, incurred millions in start up costs, time and paperwork, headhunted a CEO and signed long term agreements with vendors in order to keep worker costs down? Interesting theory.

Just because there hasn't been a successful ULCC carrier launched in Canada to date doesn't mean it won't work, it just means it hasn't been executed successfully yet. The legacy carriers that dismissed the model as foolish elsewhere are now having their butts handed to them by the likes of Ryanair etc. I'd argue that the time is ripe in Canada for the same.

[daedalusx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

[Donald]

Jim rogers was a long timer with KF correct? Doesn't KF do a ton of heavy work and MX for WJ?

Anyone making the connections yet?

Are you saying Flair is being kept alive to present a false threat to WJ, so that their management can justify a wage cut?

[BE02 Driver]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

I was going to write the exact same thing. Don't forget the surplus of cheap airports in the USA that have low fees near metro centers to attract ULCC traffic. Canada does not have a surplus of airports able to accommodate 737 traffic.

[tbaylx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

[indieadventurer]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

Honest question, who? Pardon my ignorance but I’ve been hearing this tune for years now and so far just crickets.

[tbaylx]

The ULCC model works in Europe for a few particular reasons:

- High density of population within small distances.
- Ability to easily connect big metro center by air or ground mass transit
- Tax loopholes (Ryanair, Norwegian, etc)
- P2F and/or and self sponsored type ratings flight crews

None of those apply to the Canadian industry/market which doesn't have 1/20th of the population of Europe ...

Now tell me how do you expect Flair to run a profit on a -400 with 50% LF on a 1000+nm sector with all the fed taxes and fees and no connecting abilities? Which is why so many of us are doubting the purpose of Swoop as anything else but a way around the union ... even with brand new NGs with high density configs ... the economics just aren't there for a true ULCC in Canada ...

Quite a few business people in aviation disagree with you and are willing to back that with $$. Guess we'll see in a couple years.

Honest question, who? Pardon my ignorance but I’ve been hearing this tune for years now and so far just crickets.

Who disagrees? or who is executing? Swoop at the moment on both counts. Guess we'll see if Jetlines actually gets airborne or Indigo comes in.