Are we entering another recession?

[schnitzel2k3]

Things are still going very very well. Except for Canada. Exxon just cancelled a $25B LBG project in BC.

That was pretty painful to read when it popped up earlier today.

S.

[palebird]

Short answer is yes. Who cares what all the "experts" say. Look at the situation around you. Everything is peaking or has already peaked. 2019 will be the beginning of a recession in Canada and probably 2020 for the USA. Europe is already in a recession.

[Zaibatsu]

The feds increased interest rates and a government shutdown is looming so a toddler can build a wall, and today is following yesterday... ...opening with record selloffs on both US and Canadian markets.

Use your experience to tell us why this means that everything is just fine, rookie.

[complexintentions]

You can be a pilot as long as you have an IQ at least as high as your body temperature and you can do it for a living ( sort of a living. )

Try and be a successful financial adviser that far down on the IQ ladder.

Um, no. That's some shitty rhetoric. If you believe that you betray very little experience with financial advisers. The vast majority are nothing more than salespeople with zero ability, experience, training, or any relevant qualities whatsoever to actually offer financial advice of value. At best they may do your situation no harm, at worst they will lose everything you allow them to manage or advise on. The few good ones? A different story, but not accessible to most people.

As far as pilots, shame you see the profession you've spent your whole life in so poorly, though. Same old, same old - pilots with low self esteem!

hey rookie, if you have such contempt for pilots ability to assess macroeconomics, how about offering your own pearls of wisdom? So far you've only offered insults, nothing of value. Or is it just easier to take cheap shots and run away from stating your own opinion in fear it is as useless as everyone else's?

As far as what license one holds, if any...no one considers one type of pilot better than another, at least, I don't. I just find that people loudly spewing strong opinions outside their niche are..less than credible. Hence when a private or non-working commercially-rated pilot goes on a rant about things in the industry they simply don't have the perspective to even know about, I give it very little weight. By the same token, I don't act like a know-it-all about things...I know nothing about.

And that's the thing - smart people know that they don't know things. Stupid people don't have a clue, and unfortunately are more vocal.

[fish4life]

Financial advisors = salespeople
Financial analyst = actual education required

[rookiepilot]

hey rookie, if you have such contempt for pilots ability to assess macroeconomics, how about offering your own pearls of wisdom? So far you've only offered insults, nothing of value. Or is it just easier to take cheap shots and run away from stating your own opinion in fear it is as useless as everyone else's?

Complex:

First I am not a financial advisor. As I've said before, almost all of them are salespeople. BTW -- so are the analyst community. The entire industry is a sales industry. Second, I never said everything was "fine" -- and I will not. We have serious, ugly structural debt issues not will not be easily solved; and I have written that many places until I'm blue in the face. No one cared.

On advice:
I warned on these pages many months ago, and on Twitter where I write on economics and markets. Repeatedly, and when prices were far higher than todays. I recall being openly mocked for my views and caution -- I believe one comment here was "why would I listen to financial advice from a random internet troll" -- or something like that. It wasn't valued then. I'm sure the same is true today.

So fine. Why would I offer advice from my area of long expertise to be mocked? Do you like that?

Now everyone is freaking out. This encourages me to buy quality stocks for a big bounce and I am doing so today and yesterday, after being very wary (which means net short) most of the year. Hopefully it works out. But a lot of short term risk has been wrung out in my so called amateur view. Vs. long term risk. Different.

I have no idea when the next recession will show up neither do you. It will of course as long as the business cycle continues to exist.

There you are. Good luck. If it makes you feel better assume I don't know anything. I'm sure the 25 year old bank financial advisors know what to do.

[C.W.E.]

Morning Complex hows things going with you?

I have been without electrical power since two PM yesterday due to a really bad windstorm that has put most of Vancouver Island out of power and we may be this way for days due to the widespread damage by falling trees.

Fortunately we have a very efficient wood stove to keep us warm and lots of dry wood.

And the cars to charge our phones and computers so things could be worse.

Now to this.

As far as pilots, shame you see the profession you've spent your whole life in so poorly, though. Same old, same old - pilots with low self esteem!

True I did spend most of my life in the flying industry and did very well in it because I flew in specialised sectors of the business such as Ag. flying, fire suppression, the TV industry and the movie industry and spent eight years the air show circuit in Europe so I did quite well.

However I did come to the opinion that a large percentage of working pilots were poorly trained and it is my personal opinion that the fault lies with poor over site of the flying training industry, especially in Canada and part of my opinion was formed when I owned a flight school both fixed and rotary wing for around five years.

For sure there were a lot of very good pilots among the many I did advanced flight training with but that does not justify the many who were poorly trained with poor airplane handling skills.

I have been retired since 2005 and have not really had the opportunity to observe how today's pilots have been trained so it is possible the problem of poor training has been addressed and the airplane handling skills of this new generation has improved dramatically so my opinion just may be outdated in which case I would be happy to be wrong about this issue.

You seem to be in a position to comment on this, has there been a real noticeable improvement in the skills of the new pilots in the industry?

By the way have a Merry Christmas and a very good New Year.

. E.

[rookiepilot]

viewtopic.php?p=1044920#p1044920

Seems like this post and thread should be reshared. In it I offer a lot of reasonable financial advice, wouldn't you agree complex?

[DadoBlade]

"Energy" represents 12% of the Canadian economy. That is HUGE! Alberta sells refined petroleum to the U.S. at below cost. The "Auto Sector" represents 3% of Canada's economy, almost all Ontario based. Alberta's unemployment rate reached record highs last year at 9%. Alberta's unemployment rate was around 4.5% for several decades. Alberta's unemployment rate is presently around 6.5% That is still huge for a G8 nation. Recession? Yes. Inflation? Maybe. How much debt are you carrying? Depression? Depending on where you live, the value of your house may have fallen. The cost of fuel fluctuates, but the cost of food, automobiles, banking, prescription drugs, property taxes, public transit, and utilities continue to rise beyond income level increases.

[Eric Janson]

[quote=BigQ post_id=1062663 time=1545230396 user_id=13500

I have no idea where y'all think that we have global headwinds (fake news maybe?). The US economy is on fire. It has, essentially full employment. Corporate profits are up by a ton. The reduction in corporate tax rate was a huge boost to their economy, and by association but to a lesser extent, us. Yes, other G7 economies are suffering, but again, the US is the biggest economy and the way the US goes, so does the rest of the world
[/quote]

Well I spend a fair bit of time in various parts of the World and there are plenty of unreported events.

Dubai

- Construction like there's no tomorrow right next to projects where construction has stopped or not started at all. All with borrowed money.
- Debt to GDP of 140% (2016)
- Collapse of several construction firms
- Consolidation of banks
- Collapse of a supermarket chain
- Sale of a number of properties by Emaar
- Housing price/Rental price decline.
- Large decline in the Stock Market
- Mass exodus of white collar workers (includes a lot of people I know)

- Nasty war in Yemen that the UAE has decided to get mixed up in. Victory would take 2 weeks - that was 3.5 years ago. Retaliation has been promised.

But according the to local papers - "It's all Good!"

One "Black Swan" event will collapse the entire house of cards - 2008 will be nothing by comparison imho.

Australia

-Housing prices are dropping
-Businesses are closing shop
-Lots of contractors let go as various mega projects are finished. This has a huge knock on effect on the local economy.
-Construction is slowing on on hold especially Commercial projects.

Airlines

-A number have gone under in Europe and there are more to come imho.
-Jet Airways is in financial trouble.
-Etihad is in financial trouble and are laying people off
-WoW Air is in financial trouble
-Hainan has stopped hiring

Just browsing this morning and I found these stories

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2018/12/20 ... e-trouble/

https://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment ... elled.html

[piperdriver]

Falling house prices might not necessarily be a bad thing in over heated markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

[7ECA]

Falling house prices might not necessarily be a bad thing in over heated markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

Not for the folks who've bought in and are mortgaged to the teeth, they're f'd.

For the people who've had a home for years and are either nearly paid off or mortgage free, a decline in value to what they paid is good as it decreases the property taxes. Also helps tell developers to piss off, rather than continue to harass homeowners to sell and then go die in an condo...

[mmm..bacon]

Falling house prices might not necessarily be a bad thing in over heated markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

Can't speak for Toronto, but for those of us with an 'average' income in the Lower Mainland, prices will have to drop ~40% to bring them back to 'affordable' - and that's a huge kick to the net worth of a lot of people.

[digits_]

Falling house prices might not necessarily be a bad thing in over heated markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

Not for the folks who've bought in and are mortgaged to the teeth, they're f'd.

See, I've never really understood that. What does it matter that the value of your house goes up or down 50%? You are living in there. Your mortgage payments are not affected by the changing value of your house. So how does it affect your lifestyle?

It may feel sucky and sour to pay off a 500k mortgate if your house is only worth 250k, but it shouldn't affect the ability to put food on the table or drag you into poverty because you can't pay your mortgage anymore.

What am I missing?

[rookiepilot]

Falling house prices might not necessarily be a bad thing in over heated markets like the GTA and Vancouver.

Not for the folks who've bought in and are mortgaged to the teeth, they're f'd.

See, I've never really understood that. What does it matter that the value of your house goes up or down 50%? You are living in there. Your mortgage payments are not affected by the changing value of your house. So how does it affect your lifestyle?

It may feel sucky and sour to pay off a 500k mortgate if your house is only worth 250k, but it shouldn't affect the ability to put food on the table or drag you into poverty because you can't pay your mortgage anymore.

What am I missing?

Which bank is going to lend you 500k on a 250K property? Let me know I'm interested

[digits_]

But how is that relevant? The moment your mortgage gets approved, the bank uses the current 500k value of your house. One year later, the house is only worth 250k. How does that @#$! up your life? The bank already approved the mortgage, and your income and payments didn't change. What's the catch?

[fish4life]

But how is that relevant? The moment your mortgage gets approved, the bank uses the current 500k value of your house. One year later, the house is only worth 250k. How does that @#$! up your life? The bank already approved the mortgage, and your income and payments didn't change. What's the catch?

The catch is when the time comes to renew your mortgage after the X year term of the mortgage. I believe the bank you currently hold your mortgage with is pretty much stuck to renew you but you will never be able to switch lenders so you are going to get an awful interest rate.

[rookiepilot]

But how is that relevant? The moment your mortgage gets approved, the bank uses the current 500k value of your house. One year later, the house is only worth 250k. How does that @#$! up your life? The bank already approved the mortgage, and your income and payments didn't change. What's the catch?

The catch is when the time comes to renew your mortgage after the X year term of the mortgage. I believe the bank you currently hold your mortgage with is pretty much stuck to renew you but you will never be able to switch lenders so you are going to get an awful interest rate.

Huh? No bank is ever obligated to renew you. They can demand repayment in full after the term is up, if they don't like the loan.

[7ECA]

See, I've never really understood that. What does it matter that the value of your house goes up or down 50%? You are living in there. Your mortgage payments are not affected by the changing value of your house. So how does it affect your lifestyle?

It may feel sucky and sour to pay off a 500k mortgate if your house is only worth 250k, but it shouldn't affect the ability to put food on the table or drag you into poverty because you can't pay your mortgage anymore.

What am I missing?

I'd suggest that the issue would be the decrease in equity, while the debt load remains the same. The other issue is that people have gotten into the overinflated housing market with some hope that while they bought high, they could sell even higher... Instead, you bought high then the market corrects and you're stuck with a large mortgage on a home/land that is worth a lot less.

Mind you, the buy high sell higher thing has worked fine for the "foreign" buyers looking to launder their cash. Hell, they don't even bother to move into the homes - just buy them, sit for a while and cash in. Case in point is the Whitby Estates area of West Van. https://thebreaker.news/news/west-van-empty-mansions/

[fish4life]

But how is that relevant? The moment your mortgage gets approved, the bank uses the current 500k value of your house. One year later, the house is only worth 250k. How does that @#$! up your life? The bank already approved the mortgage, and your income and payments didn't change. What's the catch?

The catch is when the time comes to renew your mortgage after the X year term of the mortgage. I believe the bank you currently hold your mortgage with is pretty much stuck to renew you but you will never be able to switch lenders so you are going to get an awful interest rate.

Huh? No bank is ever obligated to renew you. They can demand repayment in full after the term is up, if they don't like the loan.

they aren't obligated to renew you but if they have a 500K loan on a house worth 250K and don't renew you, followed by you defaulting and then they are stuck with a 500k liability on a 250k asset. A bank would rather renew the loan and have you continue paying the 500K loan.