Recession.

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rookiepilot
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Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

Don't know about you, I see advance signs all over the place. I'm US focused in my work, so we might be different.

It's coming.
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sanjet
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Re: Recession.

Post by sanjet »

A recession indicator with a perfect track record over 70 years is close to being triggered
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-reces ... gered.html
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Hilroy
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Re: Recession.

Post by Hilroy »

Can you imagine the budget deficit if we were to go into a recession... We're already 30B in the red while we're on a highly performing economy...
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iflyforpie
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Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie »

It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
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altiplano
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Re: Recession.

Post by altiplano »

LOL... Harper... some conservative... there isn't a Federal leader I'd vote for today... Maybe Bernier, but he once said he'd decimate our industry and let foreign airlines pluck the prime routes through cabotage.. .

Anyway a recession is coming... it always is.
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Hilroy
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Re: Recession.

Post by Hilroy »

iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
At least the years before he was +14, +10 and -6

The tendancy is showing that 55 to be easily achiveable
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Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie »

Hilroy wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:41 pm
iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
At least the years before he was +14, +10 and -6

The tendancy is showing that 55 to be easily achiveable
Adjusted for inflation it’s over 60. Don’t forget about the cost to service debt as well which now stands at about 30 billion per year. In the US... just their debt servicing costs greatly exceed our entire federal expenditures.
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complexintentions
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Re: Recession.

Post by complexintentions »

iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse? Confused the number of zeros between 10 and 100? :lol:
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Heliian
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Re: Recession.

Post by Heliian »

How are we supposed to keep flying if the sky is always falling!

Recession proof yourself and then you won't have to worry about it so much.

Really though, there is no recession coming, they want you to believe that so they can make the absolute maximum from your "investments". Once everyone has been wrung dry there will be another boom to reset the money train.
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Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse? Confused the number of zeros between 10 and 100? :lol:
Not only that. Harper cut tax revenues which depleted the coffers and continue to do so to this day. He chose to dole out corporate welfare rather than doing the capitalist thing of letting businesses fail, letting the creditors endure the losses, and letting investors scoop up the pieces at pennies the dollar.

I also seem to recall our energy sector getting gutted in 2014 and our dollar sliding along with it, and it hasn’t really recovered since.

Don’t forget that debt causes debt too. What’s the cost of the extra 160 billion Harper added to the national debt?

I’m not particularly a Trudeau fan.. but to pretend than conservatives are bastions of fiscal responsibility is delusional.

Doesn’t matter much to me anyways. Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
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CpnCrunch
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Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch »

iflyforpie wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
The US doesn't seem to be in a great position right now. Increasing debt, reduced tax revenue, slowing economy. The corporate tax cuts don't seem to have increased investment, and are creating a big headache for the future.

The EU isn't looking much better. The UK's economy has already shed massive amounts of jobs, capital and investment ahead of a no-deal Brexit, and it looks likely to get even worse as there is no deal on the horizon. The EU is the UK's largest trading partner, so a slowdown in the UK will affect the EU.

And then there's the Trump trade war.

The next few weeks should be interesting, with Brexit finally happening and Mueller's report apparently coming out.
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BigQ
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Re: Recession.

Post by BigQ »

Slowing economy? Slowing growth perhaps, but not a slowing economy... Not with the current goosed up corporate profits.

Forward P/Es are in the safe range. The Schiller is a little high, but otherwise reasonable.

Recessions happen when corporate profits tank. They aren't tanking right now. In fact, at current profit growth, we could see S&P 3200 and maybe even 3600 with a bit of irrational exuberance this year.

Of course, I am the first to say plan for the worst, hope for the best. This is a good time to not get into debt - In fact, it's never a good time to get into debt. I wouldn't put much new money into the market right now, i'd wait for more fake news out of the US scaring main street investors into selling, and then BTFD.
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B208
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Re: Recession.

Post by B208 »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse?
Being raised by a narcissistic communist with a trust fund and a drug addled barely out of her teens mother with bi-polar disorder.
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CpnCrunch
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Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch »

LOL don't feed the trolls.
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SkySailor
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Re: Recession.

Post by SkySailor »

B208 wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:41 am
complexintentions wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:13 am
iflyforpie wrote: Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:43 pm It might very well go as high as Harper’s 55 and a half billion dollar deficit.
Sometimes a bit of context is useful.

Harper's deficits came during the worst global recession since the Depression.

What's Junior's excuse?
Being raised by a narcissistic communist with a trust fund and a drug addled barely out of her teens mother with bi-polar disorder.
Exactly. Pretty much sums it up in one sentence. Except in this country B208, that's not a very nice way of saying it.
This country always holds the right side of the political spectrum to higher levels (because the truth hurts?), while the left gets away with just about anything. Unless of course, it's a blatantly obvious sponsorship "scandal" (or was it theft?).
We have a democracy comprised of voters who are among the most indebted (personal debt) in the G8. If they can't manage their own personal finances, how do you expect them to vote for fiscally responsible government?
Governing has become theatrics. Judging by the idiot weeknight media "entertainment", democracy will be just fine as long as the players are all glitz and glamour, no brains. Our current PM represents the new reality. You deserve it Canada. At least it ain't Trump, right folks???
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

BigQ wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 am Slowing economy? Slowing growth perhaps, but not a slowing economy... Not with the current goosed up corporate profits.

Forward P/Es are in the safe range. The Schiller is a little high, but otherwise reasonable.

Recessions happen when corporate profits tank. They aren't tanking right now. In fact, at current profit growth, we could see S&P 3200 and maybe even 3600 with a bit of irrational exuberance this year.

Of course, I am the first to say plan for the worst, hope for the best. This is a good time to not get into debt - In fact, it's never a good time to get into debt. I wouldn't put much new money into the market right now, i'd wait for more fake news out of the US scaring main street investors into selling, and then BTFD.
Shoe shine boys....LOL.
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Re: Recession.

Post by pianokeys »

BigQ wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 amRecessions happen when corporate profits tank.
Nope.
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Re: Recession.

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

pianokeys wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:38 pm
BigQ wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:13 amRecessions happen when corporate profits tank.
Nope.
Recessions happen for a multitude of reasons, minor and major. We're seeing it primarily in China due to the trade war, and possibly Europe with new auto tariffs in 3 months time.

Depressions happen when the banks stop lending because there are major defaults on their investments. Usually there is a major clawback in the economy, think U.S 2008, and to a much lesser extent the recession we felt here. We just responded faster to the interest rate reductions.

We are currently setup for a recession between housing market, and commodities, primarily due to global instability.

The tariffs coming off next month for steel and aluminum should help soften the blow. Don't know if our election in the fall is going to help build hope in the leadership of the country.

Stuck between a rock snd a hardplace.

S.
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

CpnCrunch wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:50 am
And then there's the Trump trade war.
"Trump's trade war"? Interesting. (I'm not especially any Trump fan)

Tell me more. Is he the cause?
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Re: Recession.

Post by complexintentions »

iflyforpie wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:44 am
Don’t forget that debt causes debt too. What’s the cost of the extra 160 billion Harper added to the national debt?

I’m not particularly a Trudeau fan.. but to pretend than conservatives are bastions of fiscal responsibility is delusional.

Doesn’t matter much to me anyways. Canada never gets it as bad as the US or Europe. We’re a boring nation, and that suits me just fine.
I never said that Conservatives were any better than Liberals, or dogs were better than cats. Don't put words in my mouth to suit yourself.

I just don't like people trying to deflect from the current nightmare by trying to use past mistakes as a distraction.

And my point, and question, stands - regardless of what other past governments did, why are the Liberals running (now, today) deficits about six times the "mere" $10 billion they promised, with another $75 billion projected over the next five years? I thought the budget would "balance itself"?!

I don't really care, I'm happy not to contribute one penny to the dumpster fire that is Canadian politics. But I AM curious to hear the logic to defend it, during what have been economic good times.

But hey, go ahead and elect them again - can't wait to see what they do during the bad. At least expats can vote again! :mrgreen:
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