Recession.

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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

teacher wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:26 pm This is where it gets scary when it comes to Liberal government spending.....

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ ... ent-it-all (and borrowed on top of it)

Anyone who screams about Harper's deficits is being extremely disingenuous as they fail to mention that the deficits were temporary stimulus spending during a global financial crisis AND not only supported by the Liberals BUT criticized for NOT SPENDING MORE!

Trudeau's deficits are structural and permanent which means the next global recession will be even more painful than the last (budget deficit wise)
You don't understand clearly.

As long as QUEBEC gets bailed out at any price, it's all good. We're Liberals! We must be re elected or the ghost of Stephen Harpers hidden agenda will rise again!

We're liberals. We stand for minorities and women. Unless they dare stand up to our leader, and then we mock them mercilessly.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/03/0 ... _23681852/

"i am surprised by this reaction," he told HuffPost Canada in French. "I wanted a simple design here, nothing else."
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

Diadem wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:37 am
rookiepilot wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:43 am CANADA:
"The country's economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter, for an annualized pace of 0.4 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. That's the worst quarterly performance in two and a half years."
I'd like to know where this quote came from, since you didn't provide a source. This article provides different figures: https://globalnews.ca/news/5011834/cana ... growth-q4/
The economy expanded at an annualized pace of 0.4 per cent over the final three months of 2018 as the country posted its weakest quarterly growth since the middle of 2016, Statistics Canada said Friday. The agency’s latest figures for real gross domestic product show that for all of last year the economy grew 1.8 per cent, compared with the three per cent expansion in 2017.

Hint:
Quarterly,
Annualized,
And the last year. All different time periods.

I know it's complicated.
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CpnCrunch
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Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch »

teacher wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:26 pm
Trudeau's deficits are structural and permanent which means the next global recession will be even more painful than the last (budget deficit wise)
Yes, Trudeau's deficits are bad. However, on the subject of a recessions, you should be much more worried about Trump's deficits. Canada's federal deficit is roughly 0.6% GDP, whereas the USA's federal deficit is projected to be 4.7% this year, and with their corporate tax reductions and increasing interest rates it will be more difficult for them to pay it off. So Canada is going to have a tiny bit more pain, but the US is digging themselves into a massive hole, which will then affect us.
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

CpnCrunch wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:31 pm
teacher wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:26 pm
Trudeau's deficits are structural and permanent which means the next global recession will be even more painful than the last (budget deficit wise)
Yes, Trudeau's deficits are bad. However, on the subject of a recessions, you should be much more worried about Trump's deficits. Canada's federal deficit is roughly 0.6% GDP, whereas the USA's federal deficit is projected to be 4.7% this year, and with their corporate tax reductions and increasing interest rates it will be more difficult for them to pay it off. So Canada is going to have a tiny bit more pain, but the US is digging themselves into a massive hole, which will then affect us.
Which country has the greater ability to service their debt?

Which country would the bond vigilantes revolt against first?

I'll give you one guess.
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Re: Recession.

Post by YYZSaabGuy »

eyebrow737 wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:52 pm
As you say, it is a complicated world. I agree with your sentiments. Sometimes the most unscrupulous win.

Needless to say, Canada is not the only western country struggling with this.. especially with the rise of China.
I agree. China is a game-changer.
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CpnCrunch
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Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch »

rookiepilot wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:38 pm
Which country has the greater ability to service their debt?
Canada. Run the numbers: Canada's deficit this year is 5.5% of revenue, whereas the USA's is 28.7%. Not exactly sustainable, eh?
Which country would the bond vigilantes revolt against first?
I think you're deluding yourself, but carry on.
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

CpnCrunch wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:14 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:38 pm
Which country has the greater ability to service their debt?
Canada. Run the numbers: Canada's deficit this year is 5.5% of revenue, whereas the USA's is 28.7%. Not exactly sustainable, eh?
Which country would the bond vigilantes revolt against first?
I think you're deluding yourself, but carry on.

You don't understand clearly. Stick to planes.
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iflyforpie
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Re: Recession.

Post by iflyforpie »

Bond vigilantes? Aren’t bonds where you go to hide your wealth from coming uncertainty? Isnt that why bond markets strengthen when signs of recession start looming? So if bonds aren’t doing good, usually you have a good economy and vice versa?
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Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

iflyforpie wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:33 pm Bond vigilantes? Aren’t bonds where you go to hide your wealth from coming uncertainty? Isnt that why bond markets strengthen when signs of recession start looming? So if bonds aren’t doing good, usually you have a good economy and vice versa?
Yes, but.....It's not that simple, and it's happened before:

https://www.investingdaily.com/11339/wh ... owngraded/

If things one day hit the fan, money will flow not to Canadian bonds so much as US treasuries. Depends on how serious the next future event is.

The US has the privilege of controlling the world's reserve currency. It's highly unlikely they would be the first to get into real trouble.

In Canada's case though, they can both hammer the bonds and the currency, as they did in the early 1990's.

And if they hammer US bonds for a higher yield, of course Canada's will get hammered too.

Many other countries, however to be fair -- are far worse than the US or Canada.

The US is moving towards higher taxes and / or lower spending, which is one reason I can see a recession in the future.
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Re: Recession.

Post by confusedalot »

:lol:
A thread about a recession is started and now we are talking pedophilia and SNC corruption.
Sounds like a bar argument in the smallest village you can find.
No wonder canadastan is going nowhere.
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Re: Recession.

Post by av8ts »

confusedalot wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:09 pm :lol:
A thread about a recession is started and now we are talking pedophilia and SNC corruption.
Sounds like a bar argument in the smallest village you can find.
No wonder canadastan is going nowhere.
I feel privileged to be a citizen of Canuckastan

https://dailyhive.com/calgary/canada-quality-
of-life-2017
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teacher
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Re: Recession.

Post by teacher »

Yup, nothing to see here folks either......

.....SNC bribing folks in Canada as well.....

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/snc-lavalin ... -1.4294057

Also, just because Canada is better off and other countries are worse off does not mean we need to join them in the deficit spending game.
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

teacher wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:11 am Yup, nothing to see here folks either......

.....SNC bribing folks in Canada as well.....

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/snc-lavalin ... -1.4294057

Also, just because Canada is better off and other countries are worse off does not mean we need to join them in the deficit spending game.
In light of that, and this is the Liberal official view:

I simply can't support this.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/snc-la ... -1.5042822
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Re: Recession.

Post by CpnCrunch »

rookiepilot wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:28 am
In light of that, and this is the Liberal official view:

I simply can't support this.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/snc-la ... -1.5042822
Why not? It makes sense on so many levels, and it's what other countries do (including, now, Canada).
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av8ts
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Re: Recession.

Post by av8ts »

If there was criminal activity at SNC-Lavlin then why not punish the individuals that committed the crimes and not the company/employees? Is this possible?
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession.

Post by rookiepilot »

This is very simple on SNC and the AG.

If she refused to grant a DPA because legally she did not feel it was warranted, Trudeau always had the option of firing her and putting in an AG who would blindly follow his bidding. He obviously didn't want to take the political heat for doing that, so he resorted to continuous pressure, even after she warned him she'd made up her mind and to stop, until it ultimately blew up in his face.

Now some in the Liberal party are calling her a traitor. For standing up for her principles??? Some might say -- she was lying when she testified. I don't buy it. To gain what exactly?

He's a weak leader without any guiding principles, in my view, which is why the other minister resigned as well. Facts are he wanted a political victory for Quebec --what a surprise -- without using any of his own capital and taking any heat.

He's a leader who professes to support women and minorities -- as long they toe his exact line and don't express a thought of their own.

Two- faced. Who on earth would want to serve in his government? To be his yes - man or woman?

Some would call this behaviour like a dictator, and arguably far more so than Donald Trump is.
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Re: Recession.

Post by BigQ »

Everyone here trying to point the finger to what will cause the recession. Think we can all agree our leaders are [censored] pieces of [censored].

Nobody mentioning how pilots and other users of these forums can make themselves recession-proof, or at least remove the sting when it happens.

I, for one, list the following suggestions:

Get rid of un-backed debt. Credit Cards, Car Loans, Personal Lines of Credit, they have to go. Have an emergency fund. As close to 3-6 months' income.
Diversify skills. Whether its taking on a new Type Rating, or take on a hobby with a possibility to create income from it. Watch home improvement videos on youtube instead of cat videos. Plant a frickin garden. Listen to podcasts instead of Virgin Radio.
Build Community. Try to meet your neighbours. Find ways you might be able to barter should the going get tough. Get involved in local clubs. Trade beers for work.
Watch volume and price action on the S&P500 and TSX60. Sell over-performing assets and increase cash allocations in investments for quick access to cash and/or opportunities to buy.
Make a budget. One for good times and one for bad times. Try to find ways you can make your good time budget closer to bad times budget without sacrificing quality of life. Do you REALLY need a 200 channel cable bill? Netflix that sh*t.
Move to a less taxed jurisdiction. Houses tend to be cheaper, with more backyard space, and tax return tends to be bigger. E.g. move to YOW vs YUL, or YCD vs YVR. Taxation is theft, government doesn't own you. Higher taxed areas will recover more slowly, because big government is less nimble to change.

Any more ideas people want to add?
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BigQ
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Re: Recession.

Post by BigQ »

Also, the last time people were so leveraged in Real Estate like Canadians are these years, it took 24 years for inflation-adjusted prices to recover in the GTA (1989 vs 2013). Don't put all your eggs in one basket. There aren't enough people in Canada to buy all the million-dollar homes in the GTA from those who own them.

I read the Greater Fool blog at greaterfool[dot]ca. Good stuff.
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Re: Recession.

Post by digits_ »

BigQ wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:00 pm

Any more ideas people want to add?
- Don't consider the house you live in an investment. Don't overinflate your portfolio value by including it.
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C.W.E.
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Re: Recession.

Post by C.W.E. »

- Don't consider the house you live in an investment.
So after building and living in my house for the last thirty nine years if I decide to sell it and use the money for my own personal pleasure in my last few remaining years the house was not an investment?
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