Future 797 single pilot?

[GhostRider6]

The mighty dollar drives safety, employment etc these days.

Look at how many jobs have been reduced or eliminated and only more will follow suit with increasing automation. The odd crash here and there isn’t any issue for money hungry corporations and investors ... provided the company still makes money and does not entirely lose the public’s confidence people will forget sooner or later about the last black swan event / crash. The black swan crash that would be preventable with two pilots will probably get swept under the rug or blamed by the one pilot/ computer ground operator and used to justify further automating flight to the point of entirely automated aircraft...

I could see this working actually.

The day is coming ... and probably sooner than we all think.

I hope I’m wrong ..

[Mick G]

Personally, I don't think we need any pilots....I'll just get me coat.

[L39Guy]

The mighty dollar drives safety, employment etc these days.

Look at how many jobs have been reduced or eliminated and only more will follow suit with increasing automation. The odd crash here and there isn’t any issue for money hungry corporations and investors ... provided the company still makes money and does not entirely lose the public’s confidence people will forget sooner or later about the last black swan event / crash. The black swan crash that would be preventable with two pilots will probably get swept under the rug or blamed by the one pilot/ computer ground operator and used to justify further automating flight to the point of entirely automated aircraft...

I could see this working actually.

The day is coming ... and probably sooner than we all think.

I hope I’m wrong ..

Money has driven safety, employment, etc forever. Businesses looking ways to cut costs is nothing new. But there comes a point in time where one hits the wall and businesses just have to pony up. Airlines like fuel efficient airplanes but there is a limit to fuel efficiency and fuel needs to be consumed to propel the aircraft.

I think the MAX story and the financial cost disproves what you say about "the odd crash here and there" isn't an issue for money hungry corporations. Au contraire, mon ami, look at what this is costing Boeing and the airlines. Billions of dollars as the result of the "odd crash" of the MAX. That gets lots of people's attention including regulators whose job it is to protect the traveling public from those nasty, money grubbing corporations like aircraft manufacturers and airlines.

[righthandman]

Sure...it’ll happen right around the same time they will have “flying cars” for the general population...

[ekg]

I don't think it will be good for a pilot's mental health to be alone in a cockpit for 6-8 hours at a time for long haul flights.
For flights that are less than an hour sure why not.

[ahramin]

I understand that some pilots would not wish to fly single pilot, with or without a link to a second pilot on the ground. I don't think we will see the disappearance of two pilot aircraft anytime soon. Can you imagine the ETOPS certification process?

Personally though, if my airline had a single pilot aircraft and the schedule suited me, I'd bid it without a second thought. There is nothing scary or dangerous about an aircraft flown by only one pilot and it happens thousands of times a day every day. I'm sure if would feel strange for someone who hasn't had to fly a plane on their own for decades, but it's really no big deal regardless of how long the flight is.

[goldeneagle]

I understand that some pilots would not wish to fly single pilot, with or without a link to a second pilot on the ground.

I think most folks here are confusing the difference between how the aircraft is certified with how it is operated. Take a look around, KingAir, Twin Otter, Navajo, list goes on. All certified to be flown by a single pilot, and the vast majority are operated with two pilots.

There was a time when big aircraft were all certified with 3 folks up front, and various workloads made all 3 necessary. Eventually the FADEC made the third seat more or less redundant, and the crew was reduced to two. Other parts of automating have come a long way since that era, and if cockpit layout was set so all of the switches could be reached from one seat, there is no real reason the airplanes cant be certified for a single pilot.

Operationally there may be reasons, be they marketing perceived or regulatory related that would cause those airplanes to be operated with a crew of two, even after single pilot certification. Certifying for operating with a single pilot is inevitable, it will happen, only question is when. Personally I thought it would happen on the next clean sheet out of Boeing, but the Max fiasco may have postponed it by a generation, time will tell.

[iflyforpie]

I think it will happen.

Just look at how many planes could have been saved if there was an override from the ground. Paine Stewart, Helios, Germanwings, heck... the four airliners in 9/11.

And if you can override or even operate the flight from the ground... with one operator managing several aircraft—just connect the CPDLC directly to the FMS and MCP... why have two pilots? Pilot takes off... has a nap, wakes up to monitor the approach and landing or performs it to stay current.

[doiwannabeapilot]

Sure,

YYZ - GRU - YYZ, YYZ-SCL-YYZ, YYZ-GIG-YYZ. Been der dun dat with no AT.

AP is required for RVSM, whereas A/THR is not. The above question was with regards to AP no?

No, the discussion is about the need for multiple crew when automation is not available on a 10 or 11 hour flight. While AP is required for RVSM, AT is not. Flying through the night with no AT in light - moderate turbulence around ITCZ cells requires constant manipulation of the thrust and it was necessary to "pass control" periodically. It is just one example of when I've experienced the need for multiple crew.

how often is AT mel'D ?
Even if it was.....you couldn't swap tails or cancel the flight ?
I know cancellations are extremely rare in 2 pilot aircraft.

And yes, as the other poster indicated, the question was an 11 hour flight with no AP, not no AT.

[doiwannabeapilot]

I understand that some pilots would not wish to fly single pilot, with or without a link to a second pilot on the ground. I don't think we will see the disappearance of two pilot aircraft anytime soon. Can you imagine the ETOPS certification process?

Personally though, if my airline had a single pilot aircraft and the schedule suited me, I'd bid it without a second thought. There is nothing scary or dangerous about an aircraft flown by only one pilot and it happens thousands of times a day every day. I'm sure if would feel strange for someone who hasn't had to fly a plane on their own for decades, but it's really no big deal regardless of how long the flight is.

Go for it ahramin !
But EVERY runway for EVERY airport isn't Cat 3 certified !!!!!!!!!! How can a single person fly a plane ? You're super human !
What are you gonna do if its 0/0, divert to a Cat 1 ILS field !? Or use one of those satellite-thingy approaches ?

I don't trust satellite based navigation.
There could be solar flares a brewin'

You're a brave man!

This is all TIC of course.

[L39Guy]

Just look at how many planes could have been saved if there was an override from the ground. Paine Stewart, Helios, Germanwings, heck... the four airliners in 9/11.

Look at how many planes that have been saved when the automation fails and the human intervenes. Everyone has a story where the auto system fails and they save the day, problem is is that it’s not reported so stats aren’t gathered.

For every Helios, there are hundreds if not thousands of saves by humans.

[yycflyguy]

On a typical flight, I would have to intervene with the automation at least a half dozen times to prevent an Undesirable Aircraft State. If the automation was 100% reliable, why would there be a need for speed brakes, pilot intervention on TCAS events, weather deviations that ATC can't see, Ice crystal detection/manual Anti-Ice systems? Double checking a re-route or activating an incorrect waypoint? How many times have you seen your partner so focused on flying the plane that ancillary systems are forgotten/missed?

Apprenticeship, competency checks, physiological, insurance and risk mitigation all say that single pilot airliners are nowhere in the immediate future.

[complexintentions]

I think it will happen.

Just look at how many planes could have been saved if there was an override from the ground. Paine Stewart, Helios, Germanwings, heck... the four airliners in 9/11.

And if you can override or even operate the flight from the ground... with one operator managing several aircraft—just connect the CPDLC directly to the FMS and MCP... why have two pilots? Pilot takes off... has a nap, wakes up to monitor the approach and landing or performs it to stay current.

Errr...if Germanwings was caused by a mentally ill pilot, how is having a mentally ill ground operator with the ability to remotely override multiple aircraft and fly them ALL into the ground an improvement? For the same reason it seems to me your proposal enables far more 9/11 scenarios than prevents them. Now the terrorists only need to take the box-cutters to the drone pilot to hijack multiple aircraft. Much more efficient! Progress! ....yay?

Perhaps we have not considered all the unintended consequences of our utopian masturbatory tech fantasies, hmmm? Sort of like MCAS, x1000.

Or do you envision having OTHER personnel overseeing the ground operator, sort of like oh, I dunno, a 2 crew operation like we um, have now?

Ah well, back to the drawing board!

[doiwannabeapilot]

I think it will happen.

Just look at how many planes could have been saved if there was an override from the ground. Paine Stewart, Helios, Germanwings, heck... the four airliners in 9/11.

And if you can override or even operate the flight from the ground... with one operator managing several aircraft—just connect the CPDLC directly to the FMS and MCP... why have two pilots? Pilot takes off... has a nap, wakes up to monitor the approach and landing or performs it to stay current.

Errr...if Germanwings was caused by a mentally ill pilot, how is having a mentally ill ground operator with the ability to remotely override multiple aircraft and fly them ALL into the ground an improvement? For the same reason it seems to me your proposal enables far more 9/11 scenarios than prevents them. Now the terrorists only need to take the box-cutters to the drone pilot to hijack multiple aircraft. Much more efficient! Progress! ....yay?

Perhaps we have not considered all the unintended consequences of our utopian masturbatory tech fantasies, hmmm? Sort of like MCAS, x1000.

Or do you envision having OTHER personnel overseeing the ground operator, sort of like oh, I dunno, a 2 crew operation like we um, have now?

Ah well, back to the drawing board!

I have no problems with it staying as a 2 pilot operation. I'd prefer it actually.
I just think it is not a huge technological stretch. Tech fantasies are smart phones on your wrist; seeing someone as you talk to them halfway around the world. Fingerprint and iris scans.

re: ground operator.....can't they be in a secure location ? just like a secure flight deck ?
and i think ground operators would be less expensive than a 2nd pilot.

But finances usually have little bearing on airline decisions !

I think the camp of people who think single pilot cockpits will never happen; may have inflated egos and think this is the golden era of aviation where their masturbatory dreams include them being skygods, saving the day every flight from that automation virtually killing them every day, passengers gawking at them in awe, making $500,000/year and a bevy of sexy flight attendants drooling all over them every pairing.

Maybe we should go back to 3 person cockpits....because 2 people can type in a 5 letter waypoint incorrectly ! That 3rd person might save the flight from certain tragedy.

If pilots were paid $500,000/year to fly single pilot.....would you do it ?
Or would you be terrified of your ability to manage a flight safely?

AP on at 1000', push buttons, turn knobs, enjoy the view, AP off at 200'.
c'est la vie.

[doiwannabeapilot]

On a typical flight, I would have to intervene with the automation at least a half dozen times to prevent an Undesirable Aircraft State. If the automation was 100% reliable, why would there be a need for speed brakes, pilot intervention on TCAS events, weather deviations that ATC can't see, Ice crystal detection/manual Anti-Ice systems? Double checking a re-route or activating an incorrect waypoint? How many times have you seen your partner so focused on flying the plane that ancillary systems are forgotten/missed?

Apprenticeship, competency checks, physiological, insurance and risk mitigation all say that single pilot airliners are nowhere in the immediate future.

not to mention unions