Recession incoming

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thruster
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Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 2:43 pm

According to the news, the economy is about to go into a recession. This is bad news for me as I am just starting my flight training, and it is likely that by the time I graduate, there will be a recession (approx 3 years). My question is, how badly will this affect the aviation industry? Will things go back to the way they were in 2008/2009, where pilots needed to work on the ramp for a couple years before being allowed to fly, and ~3000 hours were required for 703 jobs?

For those of you that were in the industry at such a time, what did you do to get your first job?
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FICU
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by FICU » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:21 pm

Nothing beats a good road trip to meet with chief pilots and leave your resume and a good impression.
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daedalusx
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by daedalusx » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:30 pm

Recession or not, there will always be doritos and coca cola going to the "communities" up north. And there will always be people from those same communities requiring medical services. There will be forest fires requiring some kind of detection plane, farmers who needs their field sprayed, rig pigs going to work, mineral exploration, charters services, etc, etc. Funny thing is all those jobs will generally pay more than the golden Jazz 250hr 705 "dream job" and they're certainly much more fun and they'll bring you life experiences that you might regret never doing once you get on that seniority list.

A determined person will always find work. Also in a recession, PIC time is king, the 4000hr laided off RJ FO will have a much harder time putting food on the table than the 1500hr Kingair Capt.

I really really wouldn't worry about it.
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In twenty years time when your kids ask how you got into flying you want to be able to say "work and determination" not "I just kept taking money from your grandparents for type ratings until someone was stupid enough to give me a job"

thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:35 pm

What can I do to leave a good impression? Does anyone have any recommendations. In addition, I am a visible minority. How much of a hindrance can this pose during road trips, and applying to smaller 703 operations? I am born and raised in Canada so I speak fluent English, however, I have been told by several friends and family that I'll never find a job in aviation due to this. Of course, this isn't at all a reflection of the aviation industry but it does make me concerned sometimes especially when it comes to first impressions.
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lownslow
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by lownslow » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:41 pm

Your friends and family are assholes for saying that. There are pilots of all appearances at all levels of the industry. If you meet any management be friendly and not arrogant.
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daedalusx
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by daedalusx » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:42 pm

thruster wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:35 pm
In addition, I am a visible minority. How much of a hindrance can this pose during road trips, and applying to smaller 703 operations? I am born and raised in Canada so I speak fluent English, however,I have been told by several friends and family that I'll never find a job in aviation due to this.
Laughable. They absolutely have no clue what they're talking about. Want to see real biases ? Trying being a female pilot in the Maldives.
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In twenty years time when your kids ask how you got into flying you want to be able to say "work and determination" not "I just kept taking money from your grandparents for type ratings until someone was stupid enough to give me a job"

DanWEC
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by DanWEC » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:50 pm

Wtf, what's your minority? Nickelback fan!?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by goldeneagle » Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:56 pm

There is always somebody saying 'recession looming', some folks saying it all the time. When it comes, they change tune to 'depression coming'. And if they say it often enough, and long enough, eventually they will probably be right once.
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:10 pm

DanWEC wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:50 pm
Wtf, what's your minority? Nickelback fan!?
Pakistani lol but Nickelback is pretty good ngl
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:12 pm

Deadalusx, thanks for your response! I will definitely keep that mind, and I didn't know that PIC time was that important. My dream job is to fly for Kenn Borek and I am not interested in the airline route until much later life so hopefully if the 703 world will be okay I hope that I'll be able to find a job
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:14 pm

lownslow wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:41 pm
Your friends and family are assholes for saying that. There are pilots of all appearances at all levels of the industry. If you meet any management be friendly and not arrogant.
Thank you I will keep that in mind
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by goingnowherefast » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:17 pm

The thing about any upcoming recession is it is likely coinciding with the retirement wave. Unless of course, that the recession is still 5+ years away and misses the retirement wave.

Depending on how bad the recession/depression (collapse of society) turns out to be, any layoffs at the majors will be offset by retirements. Likely meaning hiring freeze, and limited or no layoffs. That will also put progression at a stand still, no more Jazz PML or WJ flow. The regionals will probably be downsizing, and hopefully no 4000 hr CRJ FOs laid off (maybe just the 1500hr CRJ FOs).

The first job in aviation will return to dock hand/swamper and part time on the Cessna 180. Ramping and hoping for a Navajo/Caravan FO spot after a year. Instructing has always been an option for those who enjoy it.
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fish4life
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by fish4life » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:28 pm

thruster wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 4:10 pm
DanWEC wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:50 pm
Wtf, what's your minority? Nickelback fan!?
Pakistani lol but Nickelback is pretty good ngl
Don’t admit the nickelback fan part and you’ll be fine
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:48 pm

Don’t admit the nickelback fan part and you’ll be fine
[/quote]

Hahaha, ill keep that in mind. Just out of curiosity though, Why does everyone hate nickelback so much?
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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot » Sun Aug 18, 2019 5:53 pm

Live well below your means and you'll be fine, whatever happens.

On the minority issue, in Canada, it's not, I feel, unless you choose to make it one.

Everyone of us have had advantages and disadvantages to overcome. Some are a heck of a lot tougher than being a visible minority in Canada circa 2019.

I'd suggest starting with being thankful at all you have the opportunity to complete your flight training.
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Dry Guy
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Dry Guy » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:03 pm

When I was up north I didn't see any visible minorities slinging cases of Pepsi with me but when I got to AC half my class was a minority so they must have got their start somewhere. You'll be fine.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by 200hr Wonder » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:37 pm

The one thing I will add is if you have the money to get done faster, do it! I managed zero to Multi IFR in about 18 months and I am no super bright superstar. The quicker you get the CPL the quicker you can get a job.
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Cheers,

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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:39 pm

200hr Wonder wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:37 pm
The one thing I will add is if you have the money to get done faster, do it! I managed zero to Multi IFR in about 18 months and I am no super bright superstar. The quicker you get the CPL the quicker you can get a job.
Hello, Ill be attending Sault College due to the fact it is subsidized. Unfortunately private training is well beyond my budget however that seems like the smartest way to do it given the current industry movement
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. » Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:58 pm

How much does it cost to go from zero to CPL multi IFR?
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:07 pm

C.W.E. wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:58 pm
How much does it cost to go from zero to CPL multi IFR?
Around $60,000 CAD
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:29 pm

Thanks.

It will take a long time to pay that back based on what most low time pilots get paid.
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thruster
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by thruster » Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:33 pm

C.W.E. wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:29 pm
Thanks.

It will take a long time to pay that back based on what most low time pilots get paid.
yes, and usually bank loans have interest so that would only add to the time it takes to pay back. Sault College's program is subsidized up to CPL Multi IFR, which is why I opted to do that instead of private
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by cdnpilot77 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:22 pm

DanWEC wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:50 pm
Wtf, what's your minority? Nickelback fan!?
He said minority, not disability
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by GhostRider6 » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:13 pm

Hey!

Yeah, welcome to Aviation it’s pretty cyclical.. as many have said, there’s so many variables at play with respect to employment opportunities.

Have you thought of northern 705? There’s Air north up in YXY who will put you in an ATR up north with a decent wage to boot.

As for the “ visible monitory” comment .. I’ve flown with many exceptional pilots who would fit that “category.” From my standpoint, you’re a fellow pilot, competence, CRM abilities, work ethic, willingness to learn etc are king...Race, religion, sexual orientation etc do not matter.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Jack Klumpus » Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:50 pm

Dry Guy wrote:
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:03 pm
When I was up north I didn't see any visible minorities slinging cases of Pepsi with me but when I got to AC half my class was a minority so they must have got their start somewhere. You'll be fine.
Since you cracked it, I’ll let you in on a secret. Pilots who are of a visible minority don’t have to work prior to AC, they get let through a secret back door, even without an interview. Only white pilots have to work their asses off in the bush, to maybe then get an interview at big red.

Here’s what I came across during my 4 years of bush flying. People who talk shit, not based on anything relevant, but just to talk shit and make themselves feel better, mostly because their life was/is shit.
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