Recession incoming

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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

Getting much, much closer.

Get settled and sit right. Might be a real doozy.

Note I focus on the US. We are the tail, they are the dog.
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Capt. Underpants
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Capt. Underpants »

And if it happens, the idiot with the keys to the dog pound down south has single handedly created it with his ridiculous fiscal and trade actions.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by ayseven »

Recession or not, the aviation business is a tough going. Yes, you have to be positive, but it can be heartbreaking. You never have any job security, and are often away from family and friends. I wish anybody starting out the best of luck. Don't give up, and do not take no for an answer; it just might take longer than you want. Take one day at a time, or you will drive yourself nuts.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

Capt. Underpants wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:16 am
And if it happens, the idiot with the keys to the dog pound down south has single handedly created it with his ridiculous fiscal and trade actions.
Really.

So your're like most other voters.

Whatever bad happens to you financially, just blame Trump, Trudeau, Sheer, Harper, Clinton.

Let's take it back to Lester Pearson.

Easier, isn't it.

It's called the business cycle.......and it has phases.

No one forces consumers to load on on debt, like the new pickup my brother just bought, 11 years into an economic expansion.


That's nothing to do with Trump or anyone else.
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tbayav8er
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by tbayav8er »

In my opinion, if there is a recession in the near future, it won't be as bad as the one in 2008/2009.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

Edit: Opps I though page 2 was the start of this topic.

Rookie pilot, How long will the "phase" take?

Cue tinfoil hat pictures. I don't know how involved Trump is, or others on your list for that matter, but it's certainly driven by the good folks running reserve banks and creating currencies.

They have to break the American dollar so people will dump it for whatever world currency they are going to replace it with. I always wondered how they would convince US citizens to switch over. Turns out it's simple, make the US dollar worth very little to nothing. No one uses the Zimbabwe dollar anymore. You can buy actual former currency numbered in the billions.

Anyways, you're right when you say that people with debt will lose their property first.

What are you buying to protect equity? I don't trust gold this time, it's probably still going to be great at first but it will eventually crash pretty hard too. :rolleyes:
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.

Just like when you see TCU's building rapidly, you just know to get out of there with a 172.....even know one might not know exactly when it's going to pour.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. »

And if it happens, the idiot with the keys to the dog pound down south has single handedly created it with his ridiculous fiscal and trade actions.
Amazing statement Capt. Under ::

I wish I were as much of an idiot as Trump is.

If he is such an idiot how did he manage to become so wealthy and secure that he is now the most powerful man in the world with some of the most expensive properties in the world?

One thing for sure he is not idiot enough to become a pilot to try and get rich.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Zaibatsu »

It’s amazing what you can do with a ‘small loan of a million dollars’

Truth is between his failed schemes and bankruptcies its been said that he isn’t as rich as he would have been just investing in mutual funds.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by goingnowherefast »

Trump isn't smart, he's lucky. Daddy made him rich, then he had one good venture and quite a number of failures. He's an attention whore, hence the reality TV shows and his behaviour as president. He doesn't do smart things, he just does what will make his fan base give him more attention, racism, sexism, xenophobia and all.

He has made significant government investments in dying industries. The tax on Airbus is going to be retaliated by an EU tax on Boeing. Then Boeing suffers (even more) and US airlines using Airbus products will also suffer. It's a lose-lose deal, but looks good to his fans because it's a short sighted attempt at "protecting" a very specific segment of the industry at the cost of everyone else.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

You guys think Trump is bad, just wait till Warren gets in.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Beefitarian »

Sure Trump might not be smart but he is connected. Anyone that doesn't think he'll be back in with all his old friends like the Clintons making money when recession comes.... Well, I suspect you're wrong.
rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm
Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.

Just like when you see TCU's building rapidly, you just know to get out of there with a 172.....even though one might not know exactly when it's going to pour.
Fair enough, if it was easy I'd just buy whatever is going to make money and enjoy that. We're out of debt and I know how to fish and build a hut so I suppose if things get ugly enough it's carrots, potatoes, hares* and fish.

Have a great week everyone.



*Someone claims all those critters bounding around here are hares not rabbits.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by GhostRider6 »

Aviation is and will always be cyclical.

It’s better to train during a downturn than in the upswing.

Regardless, as others have said, there’s plenty of work to be had in downturns: instruct, get a ramp job, tow gliders for air cadets..you name it. When the “ upswing” hits you’ll have some time under your belt and off you go and be able to ride the rising wave of employment.

Many of us started our Careers post-9/11 and 2008/2009.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by 7ECA »

rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:55 am
That's nothing to do with Trump or anyone else.
Nothing, at all? Would you care to comment on the trade war with China - is that having an effect on the world economy, or how about its effects on the US in manufacturing, farming, etc.? How about the pissing match with Canada about aluminum, steel, and soft wood lumber - I mean, I guess all the mills shutting down in BC are unrelated...?

Then there's the Brexit fiasco with "Not a good start" Boris thinking he can fight with the EU. Japan and South Korea getting in a pissing match over trade. India and Pakistan - who just happen to be nuclear armed and trigger happy, looking to get something started over Kashmir and settle old scores. China is of course mixed up in Kashmir, as well as trying to gain influence and standing by intervening in the Japan/S. Korea game. North Korea is a nuclear armed wildcard in the region - albeit one who tends to focus on their own survival more than anything, but they've gained "street cred" internationally of late. Hong Kong, showing Xi has remarkable patience before rolling the cavalry. Iraq is unstable - big surprise. Syria is shot to hell, but still uppity and trying to push Turkey around - of course the wildcard in this fight is Russia being that they like to cozy up to Syria and Turkey, and the US can't be left out the show either... Saudi Arabia is overextended in Yemen and showing more than her usual tendency of being a complete road apple when it comes to defence. Iran, same old story since '78/79 but showing a lot more tenacity but also doing a remarkable job with her cohorts in the region (beating up ISIS). Israel, yeah...

Anyhow, I'm of the opinion that when the upcoming recession kicks off that the previous bitching from Trump in regard Federal Reserve policy will start up again in earnest, and will do little to help ease the strain - actually it'll probably end up doing the exact opposite and make things worse. I'm just wondering though if the predictions will be correct, that this will end up being a Depression rather than a recession - and possibly worse than the crash of '29, with all the associated fun that brought about.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by photofly »

rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm
Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.
And that’s the cop-out, there it is in one line.

I’m an excellent weather forecaster. I’m 100% sure it’s going to rain again. Just don’t ask me when.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

photofly wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:16 am
rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm
Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.
And that’s the cop-out, there it is in one line.

I’m an excellent weather forecaster. I’m 100% sure it’s going to rain again. Just don’t ask me when.
I love how you quoted HALF of what I wrote.

When I see a solid line of TS forming on my route, I make another plan. I don't know about you.

It's not important to know exactly when it rains, it's to pay attention to the GFA in ones planning. Beefs questions are neither precisely answerable nor important.
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

7ECA wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:44 pm
rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:55 am
That's nothing to do with Trump or anyone else.
Nothing, at all? Would you care to comment on the trade war with China - is that having an effect on the world economy, or how about its effects on the US in manufacturing, farming, etc.? How about the pissing match with Canada about aluminum, steel, and soft wood lumber - I mean, I guess all the mills shutting down in BC are unrelated...?

Then there's the Brexit fiasco with "Not a good start" Boris thinking he can fight with the EU. Japan and South Korea getting in a pissing match over trade. India and Pakistan - who just happen to be nuclear armed and trigger happy, looking to get something started over Kashmir and settle old scores. China is of course mixed up in Kashmir, as well as trying to gain influence and standing by intervening in the Japan/S. Korea game. North Korea is a nuclear armed wildcard in the region - albeit one who tends to focus on their own survival more than anything, but they've gained "street cred" internationally of late. Hong Kong, showing Xi has remarkable patience before rolling the cavalry. Iraq is unstable - big surprise. Syria is shot to hell, but still uppity and trying to push Turkey around - of course the wildcard in this fight is Russia being that they like to cozy up to Syria and Turkey, and the US can't be left out the show either... Saudi Arabia is overextended in Yemen and showing more than her usual tendency of being a complete road apple when it comes to defence. Iran, same old story since '78/79 but showing a lot more tenacity but also doing a remarkable job with her cohorts in the region (beating up ISIS). Israel, yeah...

Anyhow, I'm of the opinion that when the upcoming recession kicks off that the previous bitching from Trump in regard Federal Reserve policy will start up again in earnest, and will do little to help ease the strain - actually it'll probably end up doing the exact opposite and make things worse. I'm just wondering though if the predictions will be correct, that this will end up being a Depression rather than a recession - and possibly worse than the crash of '29, with all the associated fun that brought about.
Are you aware how many in congress, and the US public, are highly supportive of Trump's stance on China?

And many would say the trade war(s) has been going on a long time. Only now is the US pushing back.

Anyway that isn't the cause of the pending recession.

The point of my post isn't to argue about the causes, it's advice to consider preparing for a very difficult and different environment, a year or 2 down the road.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by photofly »

rookiepilot wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:03 am
photofly wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:16 am
rookiepilot wrote:
Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm
Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.
And that’s the cop-out, there it is in one line.

I’m an excellent weather forecaster. I’m 100% sure it’s going to rain again. Just don’t ask me when.
I love how you quoted HALF of what I wrote.

When I see a solid line of TS forming on my route, I make another plan. I don't know about you.

It's not important to know exactly when it rains, it's to pay attention to the GFA in ones planning. Beefs questions are neither precisely answerable nor important.
You’ve been posting about the looming recession for a couple of years or more (or perhaps it just seems that way). I too can guarantee a recession will happen in the next twenty years.

If you want to impress, tell us when, and stand on your forecast.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

Easy to not like Trump, but you can't deny US economy is roaring, and he's not afraid to push back at anyone.

He has also said he would go full out free trade with any nation that dropped their own trade subsidies and tariffs.

He might not be eloquent, but he's doing exactly what he said he would before he was elected.

I felt somewhat slighted as a Canadian by the pressure he put on us, steel exports, etc, but that was just as much a result of our weak leadership and protectionism of the dairy cartel.

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Babar350 »

altiplano wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:26 am
Easy to not like Trump, but you can't deny US economy is roaring, and he's not afraid to push back at anyone.

He has also said he would go full out free trade with any nation that dropped their own trade subsidies and tariffs.

He might not be eloquent, but he's doing exactly what he said he would before he was elected.

I felt somewhat slighted as a Canadian by the pressure he put on us, steel exports, etc, but that was just as much a result of our weak leadership and protectionism of the dairy cartel.

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
We would lose. We saw it with the C-Series. We are not playing in the same playground. People don’t get that the only « countries » that can stand are either China, or European Union when they would decide to to so.
Canada needs US more than they need us.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

I don't think you read my comment right.

And it isn't China standing up to the Americans, the Americans are standing up to China.

For that matter, the entire West better get on that track too, shore up our alliances - valuewise, politically, economically, culturally - put all the socialist commie blue sky bullshit division to pasture or divided we're going to get stepped on. If we pivot left we're going to get owned.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Babar350 »

I was answering to this :
Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
I’ve read somewhere that China has taken control of the majority of the rare earth elements production.

The West didn’t believed in was relevant to think about it... oil is not everything, we’ll learn it the hard way unfortunately.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. »

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
Or teach Trump how to speak French.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

I just openly wonder if this is a great time for young folks to take on a giant load of debt -- as many posts seem to indicate many are doing to try to catch the pilot gold rush -- when we may well have turned already.

I could be wrong and the pilot shortage is secular.

Especially when one sees stories on the premiums to be paid due to a shortage of instructors.

But that's me. I'm cautious about debt.

My sense in a year, 2 at the most, there will be loads of availability for instruction, anytime you want.

And a load of shiny near - new aircraft, boats, and pickup trucks, at great prices.......
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rxl »

I’ve been gainfully employed flying and or fixing airplanes since I left high school in 1976 and have lost track of how many recessions/economic downturns there has been since then. In the (holy sh!t) 43 years that have passed I have been unemployed at grand total of one month.
From that personal historical perspective I have to say ... recession? What recession?
With respect to Mr. Trump, he can barely speak English let alone any other language. I have ZERO respect for that con man.
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