BA suspends MAX production

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rookiepilot
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BA suspends MAX production

Post by rookiepilot » Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:08 pm

....multiple sources, reported by media.....
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by co-joe » Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:53 am

Probably just ran out of places to put them.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by Zaibatsu » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:32 pm

Don’t worry, they have a big dumb rocket that they are being sole sourced on in spite of competitors offering better rockets for cheaper. They are too big to fail.

That’s your one trillion dollar deficit at work, five times what Canada’s is as measured by GDP.

Winning.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by Eric Janson » Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:44 pm

I wouldn't be so sure about the "too big to fail" mantra.

Chapter 11 is looking more and more likely imho.

Stopping production is going to hit the supply chain vendors extremely hard.

I was reading Boeing have over 400 Max aircraft parked.

Air Canada may want to reconsider its order.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by daedalusx » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:31 pm

Eric Janson wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:44 pm
I wouldn't be so sure about the "too big to fail" mantra.

Chapter 11 is looking more and more likely imho.

Stopping production is going to hit the supply chain vendors extremely hard.

I was reading Boeing have over 400 Max aircraft parked.

Air Canada may want to reconsider its order.
I’m positive the military industrial complex will find a nobid contract for them ala 767 tanker to bail them out. Maybe another 20M$/unit drone to shoot a 120 000$ Hellfire at a freedom fighter/insurgent/moderate rebel holding a 500$ AKM in a country that didn’t want Genie Energy (board of director Jacob Roschild, Dick Cheney, Rupert Murdoch, James Woolsey - ex CIA director and Larry Summers - former head of the US Treasury) to drill and/or pipeline the local crude.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by Jet Jockey » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:43 pm

Yeah those 767 tankers the US Air Force is now refusing to accept because of all sorts of quality control issues.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by daedalusx » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:01 pm

Jet Jockey wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:43 pm
Yeah those 767 tankers the US Air Force is now refusing to accept because of all sorts of quality control issues.
Yeah it’s too bad the executives blew all of their cash in stock buyback instead of developing the NMA/FSA.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by digits_ » Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:22 pm

Eric Janson wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:44 pm
I wouldn't be so sure about the "too big to fail" mantra.

Chapter 11 is looking more and more likely imho.

Stopping production is going to hit the supply chain vendors extremely hard.

I was reading Boeing have over 400 Max aircraft parked.

Air Canada may want to reconsider its order.
I think so too. Too many politicians afraid of losing face by certifiying a machine that was built by fraudsters (in the face of the public), and the faa afraid of losing face to all interbational governing agencies.

I predict they will close shop, and a "new" company led by someone with, on paper, great experience in "safety". They will buy all the boeing assets and rename the 737 max and continue with business as usual.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by goingnowherefast » Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:45 am

Boeing isn't going anywhere. It's going to be even more absurdly expensive, but they'll survive. When it comes time to restart production, they'll have warehouses full of parts for years to come. They have already said they want to keep the supply chain going. No layoffs, contractors are still delivering parts. The 777 and 787 will support Boeing. I bet they'll never make another dollar on the 737 though. They'll have to discount the price so heavily that they'll never make up the losses. The reason they don't scrap the whole 737 program is to save face, avoid giving Airbus the monolopy and keep contractual obligations to customers (be even more expensive to cancel all the delivery contracts).

I also hope it pushes them to very close to the edge. Be a lesson world wide not to F*%K with safety standards. Money is not and never will be more important than safety.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by goldeneagle » Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:33 pm

Eric Janson wrote:
Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:44 pm
Chapter 11 is looking more and more likely imho.

Stopping production is going to hit the supply chain vendors extremely hard.

I was reading Boeing have over 400 Max aircraft parked.
I doubt that Chapter 11 is in the near future, BA has to many clandestined government contracts where invoices can be padded to keep the company going, for now.

The 400 in inventory sounds about right. They backed production to 42 a month, it's been 9 months. 9x42 = 378.

Supply chain, well that's another story. I was reading yesterday that GE is getting into a financial pickle over the engines, for those planes sitting in inventory GE has only had partial payment on the engines. apparently they are now shy somewhat over a billion dollars. That's a pretty big number, even for a company the size of GE. Then there is Spirit in Kansas who makes the fuselage units. Read this morning, they have a hundred in inventory in Kansas, and running out of ability to store them. Quite a photo, rows of 737 fuselages unpainted ready to go out on the train.

Personally, I think eventually they will get the FAA to let Max fly again. But, convincing some of the overseas agencies may be an issue. There will be at least 1 or 2 overseas authorities that give the company a bunch of grief before finally letting it fly again.

OFC there is one big wild card that'll come into play. If another Max augers in during the first year or two after return to service, that'll be the end of the Max.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by iflyforpie » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:48 pm

It’s going to be very messy and expensive for Boeing, but ultimately their diverse revenue streams and the lack of other entrenched competitors other than Airbus will ensure they will survive. They are not GM whos almost solely dependent on Joe Public’s private dollars and who has to fight off Ford, FCA, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, VAG, Hyundai, KIA, Tesla, etc.

Any airline who wants to switch to Airbus can forget it. Delivery slots are booked years in advance. Airbus can’t exactly scale its operations to take advantage, either. So airlines are left waiting and hoping that the MAX will be fixed.

It’s likely going to have an effect on airline projections as they are unable to grow and expand without the added capacity, and will have to spend more money wet or dry leasing replacement aircraft and keeping older aircraft in service longer.

Eventually though, the 737 needs to be killed. Boeing now not only faces the fallout and loss of confidence in the MAX.. but mostly likely repeating the 787 debacle with a clean sheet aircraft costing billions to develop and likely being over budget and behind schedule. Airlines will have to face higher costs of having two types as they swap over... and many like Southwest or Westjet may use the opportunity to go to a competitor instead.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by '97 Tercel » Wed Dec 18, 2019 3:13 pm

I think they'll eventually realize it needs a new/different tail.

This going to be really bad for Boeing but I agree, government will prop it up. And maybe some airlines will pick up more 787's than originally planned (at a nice discount).
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by fish4life » Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:07 am

Stock price today is still higher than it was a year ago before the max got grounded
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by Eric Janson » Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:03 pm

iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:48 pm
Any airline who wants to switch to Airbus can forget it. Delivery slots are booked years in advance. Airbus can’t exactly scale its operations to take advantage, either. So airlines are left waiting and hoping that the MAX will be fixed.
Depending on who you are airbus will do everything to help. Even if new build aircraft are not available they can offer older aircraft as an interim solution. And they have been able to provide earlier production slots in the past.

I'm sure there are discussions going on behind the scenes.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by iflyforpie » Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:35 pm

Eric Janson wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:03 pm
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:48 pm
Any airline who wants to switch to Airbus can forget it. Delivery slots are booked years in advance. Airbus can’t exactly scale its operations to take advantage, either. So airlines are left waiting and hoping that the MAX will be fixed.
Depending on who you are airbus will do everything to help. Even if new build aircraft are not available they can offer older aircraft as an interim solution. And they have been able to provide earlier production slots in the past.

I'm sure there are discussions going on behind the scenes.
I imagine there is a certain quid pro quo involved. But I don’t think that even they will be able to make up Boeing’s 4500 aircraft order backlog.

Even if the FAA revoked the 737 MAX type certificate permanently and all of a sudden a 5000 aircraft market opened up that any bank, government, or private investor would be a fool not to back, it would be the better part of a decade until Airbus could fill it because of suppliers, infrastructure, personnel, logistics, etc etc.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by Eric Janson » Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:22 pm

iflyforpie wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:35 pm
Eric Janson wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 7:03 pm
iflyforpie wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:48 pm
Any airline who wants to switch to Airbus can forget it. Delivery slots are booked years in advance. Airbus can’t exactly scale its operations to take advantage, either. So airlines are left waiting and hoping that the MAX will be fixed.
Depending on who you are airbus will do everything to help. Even if new build aircraft are not available they can offer older aircraft as an interim solution. And they have been able to provide earlier production slots in the past.

I'm sure there are discussions going on behind the scenes.
I imagine there is a certain quid pro quo involved. But I don’t think that even they will be able to make up Boeing’s 4500 aircraft order backlog.
That's 10 years of production so I would agree with you. Not sure how much more the current A3XX production can be expanded.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by rookiepilot » Fri Dec 20, 2019 6:12 pm

fish4life wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:07 am
Stock price today is still higher than it was a year ago before the max got grounded
I suspect not for long.

Here's an anecdotal question:

If AC is being hurt so much by not using the MAX -- why the non stop sales on its site?
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by iflyforpie » Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:03 pm

Most of the sales I see are for the winter doldrums. January and February where people still have the holiday hangover. Forget revenue per seat mile and try to make it on volume. Typically if you fly midweek and connect from a less popular city.

Nothing over either end of Christmas break or spring break.

Was checking loads over Christmas and many of Air Canada’s flights are sold out both domestically and to sun destinations. The few that aren’t are ones using larger aircraft like the 767-300 where they probably would have used a Max and got filled plus payed less to operate it or again mid week where nobody wants to travel.

Westjet seemed to have lower load factors but have stubbornly held onto prices. A 737 just left here for PVR with at least 7 empty seats they wanted over $1000 for as of yesterday.

One thing I’ve heard is Air Canada oversells flights but Westjet doesn’t.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by losercruiser » Sun Dec 22, 2019 4:14 pm

You can get away with overselling more when you have such a large fleet and route structure. Westjet doesn't. One plane goes mechanical and everything falls apart.

Overselling is a very specific science all done by computers based on historical data of missed connections, weather and mechanical events and such. It's no different than LIDO making all our flight plans taking into account ATC fees, winds, fuel pricing, crew costs, time enroute etc.

AC won't oversell a plane from a place like Whitehorse, Terrace or Yellowknife the same way they would a YYZ-YVR or even an overseas flight to Shanghai. Why? Because people will always miss connections and the cost benefit of having to some put people up for a night vs having a plane fly with empty seats if likely lower. Now one could argue, what about customer satisfaction and repeat business? That's where this does get complicated and where AC needs to do a WAY better job treating customers who were bumped with more compassion.

Now with the new passenger rights rules this will all likely change, and the input data they use for overselling will change and we should likely see an improvement. As an ex-commuter that's a good thing. As a shareholder and employee of AC, not so much.

But that's life, and we'll adapt as required.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by 2R » Mon Dec 23, 2019 8:52 am

Since the invention of zone loading for pax , the improvements to turn around times might make the 757 viable again ?
A very flexable useful aircraft ,just a slow plane to load and unload . Playing elevator type music would help people move quicker . Not as quick as gun fire although some panic and freeze at loud noises (startle effect) but dance music might liven their steps :)

The people who created the problem , hid the problem and those who could not see the problem will have greater difficulty in fixing the problem .Than a set of fresh eyes and open minds .

All a pilot needs is a big red button to turn the automation OFF and let the pilots fly the aircraft.
Needle , ball and airspeed :)
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by goldeneagle » Mon Dec 23, 2019 11:03 am

CEO canned this morning. Some reports say 'resigned', others say 'fired'.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by losercruiser » Mon Dec 23, 2019 12:38 pm

They'll just use this as the fall person. He made mistakes in not grounding the aircraft or taking responsibility as a company, but the decision to build the Max and the issues when it was being designed fall on his predecessor McNerny.

They put another bean counter in charge, and I'm sure it's so they can cut and slash to get the share price growing more for the shareholders. I don't think they've learned anything.
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by corethatthermal » Mon Dec 23, 2019 6:20 pm

Someone that high up ( whether CEO or politician ) rarely gets "fired" but is given the option to "resign" it looks better and the folks get to retain more after job perks !! Old boys club from beginning to end ! Like most shareholder paid for and bought puppets, his LAST concern ( if ever) was for passenger safety and we now have all the proof necessary to back up my assertion
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by corethatthermal » Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:41 am

Everyone and his pet dog knows that the board "asked Mull to step down". Mull accepted and "resigned" ! Is there anyone stupid enough on avcanada to not understand that he was fired?
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Re: BA suspends MAX production

Post by goingnowherefast » Tue Dec 24, 2019 11:19 am

There were two options:

BOD: plesase resign, we'll give you a bunch of money, everybody gets to use nice words and save face
CEO: okay
BOD: here's a fancy stock package

BOD: plesase resign, we'll give you a bunch of money, everybody gets to use nice words and save face
CEO: no, I want to keep my job
BOD: your fired, no money, use mean words in press release and ruin his reputation
CEO: breach of contract, character defamation, see you in court
lawyers: yay! at least we're getting paid.
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