Corona Virus

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corethatthermal
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by corethatthermal »

Netherlands tried the herd immunity trick and here are the numbers : 1042 ( cases per 1M ) 103 ( deaths per 1M ) they since changed their minds ! The economic issue can be erased with a pen-stroke ( Global currency reset and global debt forgiveness ) The 2 problems with going along with herd immunity as a sole response is 1) The obvious, as everyone knows , overwhelming the health care system and thereby causing unnecessary deaths and 2) Causing mass casualties through other means ( third world issues, lack of food to market, increased death rate due to societal breakdown, Weakened countries causing authoritarian takeovers ( Coups) leading to MILLIONS of extra deaths, suicides, depression leading to opioid deaths etc etc. )
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corethatthermal
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by corethatthermal »

Does one listen to a success story like Taiwan OR losers like Sweden, the Netherlands, Dr. Tam and the CHO, I mean WHO !
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Thanks,

It is essential that measures are taken to protect those at high risk of complications. We see in some jurisdictions a desire to open up the economy again. Protection of the vulnerable is important. I have passed along my idea.
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corethatthermal
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by corethatthermal »

If bill bartered with jenny, Bill would give Jenny 1 cow and Jenny would give bill 400 pounds of vegetables and fruits, done deal, no "cash" transaction. Any cash transaction is simply a "debt note" an IOU . If Bill were to provide a debt note ( Cash) to Jenny for 400 pounds of produce, Jenny would not be able to cut up the cash and eat it ! She would have to use the notes to buy a cow somewhere else. The world nowadays is a house of cards, trading on IOU s well beyond their stored produce (resource backing) All countries are doing this but will not come to the table to fix this impending disaster. A calamity greater than Covid19 MAY just do this through dictatorial control, and zero balance of all debtor nations. Countries like America better get their act together and be self sufficient insteading of relying on a debt note and promise to repay, otherwise, she will be as vulnerable to the NWO continuing enslavement as most other nations will! WRT Covid19, money and the economy is NOT the issue, the issue is HOW will the NWO globalists turn this occasion into a complete subjugation of the WHOLE world. ( Personally, I think it's not a big enough disruption, but rather a good crisis that ought not to be wasted, as the saying goes.)
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mixturerich
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by mixturerich »

It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.
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complexintentions
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by complexintentions »

mixturerich wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:30 am
It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.
Hilarious - a self-righteous rant about self-righteousness! :lol:

You're correct we should trust the trustworthy experts. Which ones are those, again? The ones who completely missed a global viral outbreak? The ones now doing the about-face on masks? The Canadian WHO doc who ends an interview regarding Taiwan - arguably with the best practices in the world against Covid-19 - to avoid offending the PRC? The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom who owes his position on the WHO to support from the PRC? The experts who advised against closing borders to avoid "stigmatizing" people? I could go on.

I am fully on board with a rational, science-based approach to the crisis. But the signal-to-noise ratio from the deemed "experts" has been absolutely brutal so far. Your implication that we should all suspend critical thought and relegate that to our "betters" is more frightening than the virus.

So, my uneducated opinion. I believe the current practices of isolation are vital, and effective in reducing the spread and ensuing mortality rates. But those defending them are missing the point. Without treatment or vaccine, it's only postponing the inevitable resurgence once isolation practices are stopped.

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

A compelling argument that the massive numbers of casualties is only being being pushed further down the road.
...an inevitable feature of realistic models of epidemics; once transmission rates return to normal, the epidemic will proceed largely as it would have without mitigations, unless a significant fraction of the population is immune (either because they have recovered from the infection or because an effective vaccine has been developed), or the infectious agent has been completely eliminated, without risk of reintroduction. In the case of the model presented in Kristof’s article, assumptions about seasonality of the virus combined with the longer mitigation period simply push the epidemic outside the window they consider.
The delay time that isolation is buying may be vital while we try and figure out what to do ie, treatments and vaccines, but it isn't realistic to think the world will lockdown for the amount of time it may take for a viable vaccine to emerge. There is in fact no guarantee one ever will. There are some promising treatments but they'll take time too to properly clinically trial.

The only intermediate solution I foresee would be massive, I mean global-scale, testing (while still maintaining strict social distancing in the interim, of course). This DOES eliminate much of the unknown regarding both the pervasiveness and the spread. Non-infected or recovered former infected get to work - everyone else stays home until they recover. Or don't. But those who don't would be able to access the medical care to at least give them a chance.

If you think your smartphone knows a lot about you now, you ain't seen nothing yet. :mrgreen:
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

mixturerich wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:30 am
It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.
Thank god we have the experts to save us :roll: .

World Health Organization tweet on January 14....
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."

Well, how the hell do you think it is spreading idiot experts?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... eaks-onset

The WHO also said not to close borders to China but fortunately, the US did anyways. Now every border is closed. Yet you say you have trust in the experts and people with real medical expertise. An organization with a leader from corrupt Africa which now gets billions from China as influence money.

'WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says 151 cases of the disease and one death have been confirmed in 23 countries outside China. He says this small number of cases can be managed without countries resorting to extreme measures.
"There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take,” Tedros said.'


https://www.voanews.com/science-health/ ... ners-china

Meanwhile Canada's supposed chief expert(what qualified that person for the top job in Trudeau's affirmative action style government leaders of equality - maybe she was most qualified of the choices but there is no way to have faith in that with this government) along with the World Health Organization that seems to be obedient to Chinese government propaganda is still claiming that there is no benefit to wearing a mask if you want to prevent spread of this disease while the CDC in the US has finally started recommending wearing a mask to prevent spreading the disease. Think about it bonehead experts. I have had an occasional cough from a cold for at least a week. If I am also an asymptomatic carrier of Covid-19, then what happens if I cough near someone. Cough into your sleeve you say...sometimes one doesn't have time. Is it not obvious to an expert. Quickly read the links below....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid- ... -1.5515526
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... rings.html
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... e-question

Why do people blindly say.....

Follow The Experts? They sound like amateurs to me. Yet they want to lock us down forever.

What if no vaccine can be found. Will be still be debating this on lockdown five years from now with our country looking like Venezuela(which is likely worse than a pandemic). Get the herd immunity for the young people as they return most of the economy to normal. Quarantine the vulnerable ones(and anyone else who prefers to do so) and prevent a descent into the real risk of anarchy.

Haven't we seen enough bad advice screw-ups from federal regulating authorities and professional pilots themselves to realize that just because you have a title, doesn't mean you know what the hell you are talking about. From endless airline disasters due to pilot error to certified aircraft crashing when they shouldn't have been certified to poor training techniques. Why would it be any different in the medical field where the number off accidental deaths due to medical errors each year is astronomical. Yet there is a never-ending line-up of lemmings.
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Last edited by pelmet on Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

shimmydampner
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by shimmydampner »

Hey mods, what does this have to do with aviation?
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ayseven
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by ayseven »

You are a fool. Believe what you will, but trying to influence attitudes with misinformation and twisted fantasies is dangerous. You are not contributing to a discussion, you are a troll.

I will tell you what happens in a care facility lock down: nobody but the workers can go into the building. Who do you think these workers are? Who lifts a 90 year old lady and helps her to the toilet? SOMEBODY UNDER 55. Those people go home after their shift is over - there is no room in the long term care facility for anybody but the residents. Those people have families who work in large office buildings with mostly under 55s - buildings that blow the same air all over the place. These are full of people who do not know they are carrying the virus. This disease can be air borne. Surely even you can see what happens next? But I won't bet you will. See above.
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2R
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 2R »

The first casualty in War is Truth .
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Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:32 am

Follow The Experts? They sound like amateurs to me. Yet they want to lock us down forever.

What if no vaccine can be found. Will be still be debating this on lockdown five years from now with our country looking like Venezuela(which is likely worse than a pandemic). Get the herd immunity for the young people as they return most of the economy to normal. Quarantine the vulnerable ones(and anyone else who prefers to do so) and prevent a descent into the real risk of anarchy.
If there were a way to isolate you and the rest of the "herd immunity" Darwin Award contenders on an island so you could conduct your little health experiment I'd be all for it. But we can't. So for now you'll just have to do what the public health and infectious disease experts tell us is the safest way out of this quagmire political incompetents have gotten us into.

Say, you don't live in Georgia by any chance do you?
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digits_
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by digits_ »

pelmet, how would the result of your proposal differ from the situation in Italy and Spain? They -unwillingly- implemented the herd strategy by not taking any isolation actions in time.
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rookiepilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by rookiepilot »

shimmydampner wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:08 am
Hey mods, what does this have to do with aviation?
CADORS reguritation is clearly not enough for some.
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Soyer
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Soyer »

Both 'sides' have valuable points. The fact is that 50-75% of the population will get Covid-19 and, eventually, herd immunity becomes viable. Hunkering down, as we are doing now, is meant ONLY to to spread the rate of infection over time so that the 50-75% who end up of with a serious case of the infection are able to be treated with the hope of keeping deaths to a minimum. It kills approx. 0.5-1% of those infected whether they receive medical help or not.

When we come out of isolation there WILL be a spike again in the number of cases as the virus continues spreading. The world is in mitigation mode. Complete suppression would require over a year in isolation.

But if we are to look at this objectively then we have to look at the economic consequences of the policies we follow. The suicide rate in the US (and elsewhere) during the last financial crisis increased as people lost everything - the same, and worse, will happen with Covid. How many people may/will be unemployed for great lengths of time - the affects of poverty with regard to health and mortality are well documented, numbers that don't lie. How many hundreds of millions in the 3rd world will be affected by the virus itself and the economic devastation that results from it? The despots of the world are licking their lips at the opportunities this will provide them.

Governments around the world f#cked up big time, only 17 years after SARS. Canada, in particular, suffered from SARs and should have know better. What did we do - let our stocks of masks go stale! So NO - I don't take anything they say any longer at face value!

There are consequences - REAL consequences - that go along with any path we follow. Our job is to evaluate those consequences, as a society, and make an informed decision. But no politician will stand up and say that deaths now may be better than more deaths later. They won't even discuss it and people don't want to hear it. I'm not saying that is the path we should follow but it should be openly and honestly discussed. This should be second nature on an airline forum as that is our bread and butter - we assess, act, manage and then reassess.
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ehv8oar
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by ehv8oar »

The good news is this does seem to be ending, lower cases in Italy, Spain and New York. The social distancing policy while having an economic impact is obviously working.

Those people that complain about how it’s ill advised, over the top etc etc should honestly ask themselves if their opinion would still be the same if their parents or relatives got it and ended up in ICU.
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altiplano
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by altiplano »

Challenging the group-think echo chamber, or discussing policy alternatives isn't trolling.

I'd suggest that the responses to policy criticism I see here are worse.
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corethatthermal
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by corethatthermal »

PELMET, I applaud you for summarizing everything and putting it all together ( I am either too lazy or know the ignorant folks would not believe easily researched truths anyways or be banned )
I have come by this information as you have and it doesn't take an intelligent person to figure it all out ! Apparently, just a more intelligent person than some of the pilots here lol

I have read about the Chinese green/yellow/red scorecard that they carry in their cellphones . I would like to see massive antibody tests done in Canada to confirm those who are now immune to the virus ( When enough research proves longer term natural immunity is certain) and those people being allowed unrestricted access everywhere. They would need to carry about some proof of course. We also must rely on EVIDENCE and diligently use proper masks/eye protection for ALL people when within communicable distances ( 2-10M ) This Covid has not infected 2-5 million people already due to just coughing or lack of hand washing folks, it is airborne and a mix of particle ( carried by droplets) and atomized ( dried up particle ) nuclei spread ! WE CAN get back to a nearly normal life ( LIKE TAIWAN ) BUT we must listen and apply proven /observable means to do it and NOT listen to the so-called professional idiots pelmet obviously pointed out !!!
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corethatthermal
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by corethatthermal »

BTW, Dr. Tam Tam , Providing FALSE deceiving information or outright lies that cause illness, injury or multiple deaths, to me , constitutes mass murder !
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Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

It’s astounding to me the number of pilots who think they’re smarter than the people who actually look after their collective health for a living. You rightfully wouldn’t tolerate an infectious disease expert coming up front to question your fuel choices, yet you have the lethal combination of ignorance and arrogance to effectively do the same to them. You also somehow fail to imagine that the entire professional apparatus doesn’t constantly re-evaluate their own recommendations against actual scientific evidence every single day.

Jesus, sometimes my colleagues in this business discourage me....
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rookiepilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by rookiepilot »

I dare Pelmet to post his "wisdom" on a medical professional's forum....I'd enjoy watching the shredding........

If he or anyone else feels that strongly, post it on a forum of ER / ICU doctors ---
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

https://edmontonjournal.com/news/nation ... the-virus/

Read the full article and tell me you don't want to throw up.

To blindly say follow the experts......how many flip flops can they do ?
not transmitted by human contact
travel restrictions don't help
the risk is low

I just hope in 15 or 20 years at the next outbreak;
DAY 1 !!!!!! We close travel to China IMMEDIATELY.
Anyone there for work or pleasure; I'm sorry, that's a risk you take.....you're stuck there for a few months.
END OF STORY.

I WHOLEHEARTEDLY trust the scientists working on a vaccine, the professionals in a hospital. Yes, they are experts.
I don't trust the WHO or the UN or FIFA or the IOCC or TAM as far as i can throw them.

I was shocked that the NBA was the first to close up shop. Someone there had balls and integrity.
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A346Dude
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by A346Dude »

I don't necessarily agree with Pelmet's plan, but he's not wrong for asking questions and nobody has the right to tell him he can't. The current plan, which some have signed up for so wholeheartedly, isn't really a plan at all as it has no exit strategy. Shutting down the world economy for 6-18 months is untenable, and will fail.

Given the track record of our experts thus far, I refuse to blindly trust them until I see an actual, viable plan.
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Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

A346Dude wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:06 am
The current plan, which some have signed up for so wholeheartedly, isn't really a plan at all as it has no exit strategy.
Save lives and give the health services a fighting chance, that's the plan right now. Exit strategy is constantly being evaluated and will be put in place when the first two objectives are assured. Economic strategies (drastic ones at that) have been put in place and will similarly be constantly re-evaluated. Surely you've noticed?
A346Dude wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:06 am
Given the track record of our experts thus far, I refuse to blindly trust them until I see an actual, viable plan.
As an A346 Dude I submit you're not qualified to tell if a plan is viable or not unless you're hiding some kind of health and economic expertise we don't know about. But you can trust or not trust as you like, as long as you adhere to the measures in place.
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ayseven
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by ayseven »

I would urge those who think they know more than the thousands of scientists who study this for a living, to inform themselves on the scientific method (I think Francis Bacon was the first to propose it officially (thank you internet)). People used to think things were only "an act of God", and to an extent they are, but we have learned ways to verify, and act accordingly, that can actually help us, instead of throwing ourselves out in front of buses, and hoping for the best.

I would argue that another point of view, one proposing ignoring the isolations orders, is more dangerous than some on here believe right now. I have no idea where this distrust of certain scientific authorities comes from, but I for one, find it baffling (actually I do know - easier to just say "things are so, just believe me" rather than look at indisputable facts). Is it so hard to admit that there are those that know more than we do?

Having said all that, alternative ideas are most certainly welcome in the right environment, but we are not well placed enough to argue each point that has been presented. We all want this over as soon as possible.

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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:24 am
It’s astounding to me the number of pilots who think they’re smarter than the people who actually look after their collective health for a living. You rightfully wouldn’t tolerate an infectious disease expert coming up front to question your fuel choices, yet you have the lethal combination of ignorance and arrogance to effectively do the same to them. You also somehow fail to imagine that the entire professional apparatus doesn’t constantly re-evaluate their own recommendations against actual scientific evidence every single day.

Jesus, sometimes my colleagues in this business discourage me....
If our infectious disease experts are so smart. how come this pilot beat our leader to state that masks should be used. They have been doing it for decades in her home country. Maybe if a few infectious disease experts(or anybody else who saw the obvious) had told some pilots over the years not to land in thunderstorms, thousands would be alive who are not. It is called common sense.
rookiepilot wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:29 am
I dare Pelmet to post his "wisdom" on a medical professional's forum....I'd enjoy watching the shredding........
If he or anyone else feels that strongly, post it on a forum of ER / ICU doctors ---
Here is my wisdom...
1. Wear masks even if asymptomatic while in public as you may cough for various other reasons and spread the virus. The experts...just figuring it out.
2. Don't trust China. They lied during the SARS epidemic and they are lying now. If America closes their border to China, we should do the same. The experts like WHO thought differently.
3. Human to human contact is obviously the way this is spread just like all the other flu type viruses that come out of China. The WHO....no human to human spread.
4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
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Last edited by pelmet on Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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