Corona Virus

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ayseven
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by ayseven »

You know, Mr Pelmet, some of us actually have science degrees, I for one, an MSc. You are wrong.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

ayseven wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:27 am
You know, Mr Pelmet, some of us actually have science degrees, I for one, an MSc. You are wrong.
Wow...for an MSc, your reasoning for me being wrong as spelled out by you after telling me that I was wrong is not very convincing.

I don't have a problem being proven wrong(all I want is the harsh truth), but you have to actually make your case. I would assume that is how one gets an MSc.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

doiwannabeapilot wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:44 am
https://edmontonjournal.com/news/nation ... the-virus/

Read the full article and tell me you don't want to throw up.
What a surprise. Just like I suspected. Political correctness is by far the first priority and no doubt part of trudeaus's choice. I challenge someone to fully read this article by our medical expert. OK, keep it short and start at chapter 2....

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... ystem.html

Now you know why China was not cut off and we were all told how racist we are. Sorry folks, but after the news came out in January, I said to myself that I would not go into Asian market stores in cities with Asian flights. Why? Because on layovers, that is where the flight crews and foreign passengers go to get their food. Trust me...I know. If it had been the same for some other group, I would have done the same.

Poor racist me.

I guess I fall into this category....as tweeted by the Doctor....

Jan. 29: Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, on Twitter: “I am concerned about the growing number of reports of racism and stigmatizing comments on social media directed to people of Chinese and Asian descent related to 2019-nCoV coronavirus… Racism, discrimination and stigmatizing language are unacceptable and very hurtful… Everyone has a part to play in preventing the spread of the virus. The Chinese community and all travellers from affected areas are a key part of these efforts….Racism, discrimination and stigmatizing language are unacceptable and very hurtful. These actions create a divide of Us Vs Them. Canada is a country built on the deep-rooted values of respect, diversity and inclusion.”
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BTD
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by BTD »

pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am
Rockie wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:24 am
It’s astounding to me the number of pilots who think they’re smarter than the people who actually look after their collective health for a living. You rightfully wouldn’t tolerate an infectious disease expert coming up front to question your fuel choices, yet you have the lethal combination of ignorance and arrogance to effectively do the same to them. You also somehow fail to imagine that the entire professional apparatus doesn’t constantly re-evaluate their own recommendations against actual scientific evidence every single day.

Jesus, sometimes my colleagues in this business discourage me....
If our infectious disease experts are so smart. how come this pilot beat our leader to state that masks should be used. They have been doing it for decades in her home country. Maybe if a few infectious disease experts(or anybody else who saw the obvious) had told some pilots over the years not to land in thunderstorms, thousands would be alive who are not. It is called common sense.
rookiepilot wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:29 am
I dare Pelmet to post his "wisdom" on a medical professional's forum....I'd enjoy watching the shredding........
If he or anyone else feels that strongly, post it on a forum of ER / ICU doctors ---
Here is my wisdom...
1. Wear masks even if asymptomatic while in public as you may cough for various other reasons and spread the virus. The experts...just figuring it out.
2. Don't trust China. They lied during the SARS epidemic and they are lying now. If America closes their border to China, we should do the same. The experts like WHO thought differently.
3. Human to human contact is obviously the way this is spread just like all the other flu type viruses that come out of China. The WHO....no human to human spread.
4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
While I agree there is an argument to be made perhaps a good one perhaps not, your positions above are only valid in hindsight. You are right by luck.

If I say a coin will land on heads, and then it does, does that mean you should believe any prediction I make? No. I got lucky.

Vigorous debate should be had by those that have the expertise and those that can adequately educate themselves on epedimeology and statistics. Unless one were already well versed in these ahead of time, I doubt 3 weeks of internet review has brought someone up to speed on the intricacies.

Before any recommendations or strategies can be put forth on a national scale they need to be supported by evidence, otherwise it is just making sh*t up on the fly.
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Capt. Underpants
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Capt. Underpants »

pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am

They have been doing it for decades in her home country.
Her home country is Canada.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

Taken in the context of the political climate at the time, I think it was naive to think that banning Chinese flights would have been that effective.

We have the stark examples of the US and Italy being some of the earliest nations to do just that, yet they are some of the hardest hit nations. I think the Science was there to say it would not have helped, and perhaps hindered efforts to track spread (as passengers and airlines connected through other countries), and hindered efforts of Canadian citizens to come home.

I don't think anybody would have argued that an immediate halt to all international flying wouldn't have helped. Or if the international community came together to basically quarantine Chinese flights altogether -- but again, taken in the context of the political climate no nation on earth was prepared to do this due to the obvious and immediate economic repercussions in the face of a threat that was still doubted by those outside of the scientific communities.

What we have happening now, is that the same people who royally fucked up the response to this (the trump administration), and the people who were utterly and completely wrong about the severity of the threat (the alt-right, anti-science, anti-intellectual, anti-authority whackjobs of the world) trying to save face. They are now engaged in playing the blame game to our collective detriment.

What we need is to shut the @#$! up, stay home, and listen to the doctors and scientists -- and save the ideological bullshit for the economic recovery where it sadly still has a leg to stand on.

When it comes to the science of this disease, we know what works and what doesn't. We don't need the political bullshit muddying the waters right now.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:21 pm
What we have happening now, is that the same people who royally fucked up the response to this (the trump administration), and the people who were utterly and completely wrong about the severity of the threat (the alt-right, anti-science, anti-intellectual, anti-authority whackjobs of the world) trying to save face. They are now engaged in playing the blame game to our collective detriment.
The only people with credibility on that issue are the ones wiling to admit that both sides were wrong. Trump and NYC mayor de Blasio were wrong that it was not a concern. Trudeau and Dems were wrong that it was all about racism. At least one of the group is ready to start up the economy soon(I guess he is not saying how wonderful it is these days that there are less carbon emissions.

I have a few suggestions for him as already outlined above.

25% of the population can be temporarily quarantined and they probably represent a much lower percentage of the workforce.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

Pelmet.

You are part of the problem.

Stop.
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A346Dude
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by A346Dude »

Just so I have this clear... the response from the "pro-science" camp is: we are right, you are wrong, stop talking. No evidence, no admission that some of the talking points from mere weeks ago were 100% contrary to the current rules and advice.

But we're sure we're on the right path now.

OK then.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Capt. Underpants wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:14 pm
pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am

They have been doing it for decades in her home country.
Her home country is Canada.
Sorry, I forgot momentarily how important political correctness is when it comes to this whole disaster. I will re-arrange my priorities and admit my privilege.
Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:44 pm
Pelmet.

You are part of the problem.

Stop.
Which problem...the economic one, the health one, or the one that looks for ideas to save the economy and protect lives at the same time.
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Last edited by pelmet on Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am

4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm
pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am

4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
Start bowing. Anybody stupid enough to not realize that there are millions of unconfirmed cases should do nothing less. :prayer:

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-coronavi ... 19-1493201
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Last edited by pelmet on Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

A346Dude wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:55 pm
Just so I have this clear... the response from the "pro-science" camp is: we are right, you are wrong, stop talking. No evidence, no admission that some of the talking points from mere weeks ago were 100% contrary to the current rules and advice.

But we're sure we're on the right path now.

OK then.
The "pro-science" camp isn't saying we are right, we're saying given a choice between the advice of medical and public health professionals or keyboard experts on an aviation forum? Well, the choice is simple, and in this case could actually save the life of real people.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:21 pm
Taken in the context of the political climate at the time, I think it was naive to think that banning Chinese flights would have been that effective.

We have the stark examples of the US and Italy being some of the earliest nations to do just that, yet they are some of the hardest hit nations. I think the Science was there to say it would not have helped, and perhaps hindered efforts to track spread (as passengers and airlines connected through other countries), and hindered efforts of Canadian citizens to come home.

I don't think anybody would have argued that an immediate halt to all international flying wouldn't have helped. Or if the international community came together to basically quarantine Chinese flights altogether -- but again, taken in the context of the political climate no nation on earth was prepared to do this due to the obvious and immediate economic repercussions in the face of a threat that was still doubted by those outside of the scientific communities.

What we have happening now, is that the same people who royally fucked up the response to this (the trump administration), and the people who were utterly and completely wrong about the severity of the threat (the alt-right, anti-science, anti-intellectual, anti-authority whackjobs of the world) trying to save face. They are now engaged in playing the blame game to our collective detriment.

What we need is to shut the @#$! up, stay home, and listen to the doctors and scientists -- and save the ideological bullshit for the economic recovery where it sadly still has a leg to stand on.

When it comes to the science of this disease, we know what works and what doesn't. We don't need the political bullshit muddying the waters right now.
utterly and completely wrong; you mean TAM and WHO and the Canadian political correctness bs ?
alt-right ? what!?
Read what TAM said at the beginning of this....she was no better than Trump.
The US isn't the only country that royally f'd up.

Yes, listen to the people who say do X this week; but 2 weeks later say don't do X.
THAT is where the credibility issue comes from.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

A346Dude wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:55 pm
Just so I have this clear... the response from the "pro-science" camp is: we are right, you are wrong, stop talking. No evidence, no admission that some of the talking points from mere weeks ago were 100% contrary to the current rules and advice.

But we're sure we're on the right path now.

OK then.
+1
stop talking...or you'll be sent to a re-education camp.

YAY! CRM !
I'm the Captain, I'm an expert. You are wrong lowly FO. Gear UP, wait, what day is it....gear DOWN. flip a coin.
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Last edited by doiwannabeapilot on Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.

Rockie
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Rockie »

This virus is ruthlessly punishing bluster, ignorance and stupidity in government. It cannot be intimidated into behaving the way orange-faced morons want it to behave. Science or ignorance. Stark choices.
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pelmet
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by pelmet »

Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:04 pm
Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
How does anything I said not have anything to do with science. I accept the science and have come up with a solution that minimizes lives lost and prevents economic disaster.

Once again...show me where I said anything that is not backed up by scientific reality.

Expect nothing folks.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.
Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:04 pm
Fox news is not reality. Reality isn't "fair and balanced". There are not two sides to the story. There is fact and there is fiction.

You can blather about which side is right and wrong, or how both were wrong and share equal amounts of blame. It doesn't matter.

The reality of this DOES NOT CARE. The virus does not follow any political ideology. The only tool we have to understand and predict outcomes and choose courses of action is the science.

If one side of a political debate actually respects and pays attention to the science, and makes evidence-based decisions then I'm sorry but THEY ARE CORRECT.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

Rockie wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:09 pm
This virus is ruthlessly punishing bluster, ignorance and stupidity in government. It cannot be intimidated into behaving the way orange-faced morons want it to behave. Science or ignorance. Stark choices.
And the other 170+ countries..... ?
You are correct though, he has said some incredibly stupid things.
But if you were a governor of a state, couldn't your genius override that and you'd be a hero ? Couldn't you flip a switch and you'd have quintuple the amount of PPE and a vaccine overnight?
At least he isn't giving masks away to the country that started the nightmare.
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:10 pm
How does anything I said not have anything to do with science. I accept the science and have come up with a solution that minimizes lives lost and prevents economic disaster.

Once again...show me where I said anything that is not backed up by scientific reality.

Expect nothing folks.
Listen to your health experts. You are not one of them.

As somebody else mentioned, it would be as ridiculous as a public health official coming up to your flight deck and telling you how to operate your aircraft.
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Soyer
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Soyer »

Rockie wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:58 pm
pelmet wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:06 am

4. It is not nearly as high a death rate as you are saying...."On Mar. 3, the World Health Organization said the mortality rate for the virus had increased to 3.4 per cent." Guess what WHO.....there are all kinds of people without symptoms or few symptoms who never got tested. The mortality rate is much lower than estimates because so many people have few symptoms.

Shred away experts.

Time to get the young people infected while getting the economy going while older people are quarantined.
Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...


Rockie - that same statistic modelling that you are leveraging suggests the actual number of infected in 4-8 times that reported. As you see them now reporting they also understand that a significant number of people have very mild symptoms and so those infected rate numbers are likely much higher with a resultant death rate percentage much lower.


This crisis has evolved quickly and the science has changed almost as quickly since they are still learning. I think the reasoned argument here on this forum is NOT to ignore scientific advice and go out (stay in!!!) but to look at it critically and question. The reason that our politicians and the doctors/scientists they have on screen say so little is that they don't have all the answers and are more fearful that critical debate will result in people not taking it seriously then the fear of being untruthful.

What is true is that EVERY statistical model and every respected doctor/scientist/tactician says that when we come out of isolation the virus WILL spike again. All we are doing, at the moment, is trying to spread the infections over time so that the health system can cope for as long as possible. The hope now is that this time will allow another approach that will work - vaccine etc. That is something that no politicians discuss- watch them dance around it - and something the TV doctors and scientists don't yet discuss .
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Trematode
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Trematode »

doiwannabeapilot wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:13 pm
The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.

We should be coming together to deal with this with the tools of science and evidence-based decision making. Not sowing division.

I encourage you to think about that instead of pursuing the same tired ideological arguments that set the stage for the bungled western response to this crisis.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

https://www.macleans.ca/society/science ... ple-steps/

Yes, he is edumacated.

Pelmet, you might like this article.
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doiwannabeapilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

the bungled response was not stopping travel (movement of the virus) SCIENCE.
because of political correctness.....IDEOLOGICAL.

Who was sowing division......its science.

Thanks for the encouragement.
Trematode wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:30 pm
doiwannabeapilot wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:13 pm
The virus DID follow political ideology; it followed inclusiveness and tolerance.
We should just find the root cause.

We should be coming together to deal with this with the tools of science and evidence-based decision making. Not sowing division.

I encourage you to think about that instead of pursuing the same tired ideological arguments that set the stage for the bungled western response to this crisis.
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