Corona Virus

[cjp]

as the great Kent Brockman once said,
"it's in Revelations people !"

P.S. I think its the Illuminati.

CIA bio warfare, destabilize the government by destabilizing the people.

Remember to make sure the reflective shiny side of the tinfoil is on the outside of your hat, dull side in.

Lol - like this?

[Eric Janson]

Spare a thought for our flight and cabin crew colleagues who are doing evacuation flights out of China.

I see one of my company's aircraft is in Wuhan at present.

[7ECA]

Assuming they aren't coming into contact with the "great unwashed masses", and that they wash their hands and practice generally accepted best practices for hygiene; the risk of contracting the virus is about the same as any other virus.

I find it interesting that people (read conspiracy theorists) are drawing a conclusion of sorts between the large scale quarantine efforts in China and the idea that the government has something to hide... Quarantines have proven effective at halting the spread of contagious disease since the Black Death - actually, that's about when the first efforts at isolation and quarantine were made; I believe it was the Italians who came up with the idea at their ports. The original timeline was 40 days, apparently a biblical reference to the 40 days/40 nights in the desert. Seemed to work fairly well, at least in communities who practiced it religiously.

[Eric Janson]

@7ECA

I'm trying to remember the last time 50+ Million people were quarantined - this is huge Red Flag imho.



Having lived in Asia and spent time in China - I have seen first hand how things (don't) work. The levels of Incompetence would shock you.

I have no doubt that the true extent of this outbreak has not been revealed by the Chinese government.

They've lost control of the situation imho - not a surprise given the fact that appointments are not based on merit. It's the Peter Principle in action.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mayor ... es-weekend

The last paragraph is the one to remember.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Zerohedge - they frequently cover stories you won't read in the Mainstream Media.

As for comparisons to seasonal Flu - this appears to have double the infectious rate, 30 times the mortality rate and 14 times the initial asymptomatic period (in which the virus is communicable).

This is a very serious situation imho.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

I lived and worked in downtown Toronto through SARS. It was bad - really bad - as I'm sure anyone here who lived through it can attest. I wore a mask. The fear was real. I can't speak for the incompetence of the Chinese government, but I can speak for the competence of ours. SARS changed everything, and for the better IMHO.

Put it this way - I'm grateful that we have SARS behind us for this. Coronavirus seems worse, and more deadly, but I think we're far, far better prepared for it than we were for SARS. Yes, 40 million people (ish?) in quarantine is bad, but with the world being recently reminded of how to stage a global quarantine effort, I have faith.

This too, will pass. Many more will perish, but this too will pass.

[Daniel Cooper]

How does a quarantine and evacuation flights go together? Either this is the worst quarantine ever or it's all for show.

"Peg, I'm trying to control an outbreak and you're driving the monkey to the airport!"

[complexintentions]

It could be the reason they're quarantining 50 million people is...they've learned a few things from, and since, SARS...?

Last line from ZH article:

The officials need to think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions," he said, which is all one needs to know about any "facts" coming out of China.

If one honestly believes that every politician in the US, Canada, or elsewhere doesn't absolutely "think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions" you simply aren't living in reality.

I too have experienced shocking incompetence in Asia, but as someone who's relocated back to the West I can tell you China by no means has any monopoly on corrupt, inept and ineffectual institutions. God help Europe if the same outbreak were taking place here and the EU was running the response. Ironically, it's the totalitarian nature of their regime there that is allowing China to impose such draconian measures. Meanwhile in Canada the response is mainly to publish hand-wringing editorials warning against racism if anyone dares to suggest cutting transport links to the epicentre of a global viral outbreak. Apparently a geographical area is a race now. The virtue-signalling will end up killing people yet.

As far as zerohedge, suspected dodgy numbers is not a rationale for making up your own numbers, nor is the plural of personal anecdotes "data".

Could you post some math that substantiates your claims that coronavirus has mortality rates many multiples higher than seasonal flu, please? Not disagreeing, just would like to see it.

But to expand on the perspective given earlier - according to this article:

- in a bad year, flu kills 61,000 people in the US. So far this flu season, an estimated 10,000 people have died of the flu in the US, including 68 children. As of today the reported worldwide deaths from coronavirus have just topped 300, with virtually all of them of a similar profile: elderly, and/or pre-existing medical conditions. It should be noted that at this point, ALL of the deaths have been within China save 1... a traveller infected in China. Of course the numbers outside of China can and will increase, but it's a somewhat compelling argument that the Chinese have not "lost control" - not yet, anyway.
- so far this season, there have been an estimated 19 million flu cases in the US. Current reported cases of coronavirus - 14,628 worldwide with 14,451 in China. The coronavirus has some catching up to do. Hopefully, it won't.

Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread


Mapping 2019-nCoV - John Hopkins CSSE

[Blowin' In The Wind]

@7ECA



I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Zerohedge - they frequently cover stories you won't read in the Mainstream Media.



This is a very serious situation imho.

Respectfully, Zerohedge is a pile of steaming trash that has a long and well-documented history of publishing outright falsehoods and click-bait conspiracy.

[7ECA]

@7ECA

I'm trying to remember the last time 50+ Million people were quarantined - this is huge Red Flag imho.

As for comparisons to seasonal Flu - this appears to have double the infectious rate, 30 times the mortality rate and 14 times the initial asymptomatic period (in which the virus is communicable).

This is a very serious situation imho.

It's not a red flag, is a reasonable response to try and limit the spread of an infectious disease. You know, the same sort of thing Europeans did during the plague, but apparently that was different and this is "novel". But I digress...

As for your comparisons, you're way off. Panicky, paranoid, and way off. 2019-nCoV has miles to go before it comes anywhere near being as infectious as "run of the mill" influenza - and the mortality rate of around 2% (thus far) is not at all frightening. And why, please god why, do people keep going back and harping on the asymptomatic period? Tons of diseases are contagious while asymptomatic, "regular" influenza, measles, mononucleosis, typhoid (say hello, again, to Typhoid Mary), HIV, c. difficile, polio, etc...

Yes, it is a serious situation; and one which thus far has been handled in a manner that only a totalitarian nation can - large scale enforced quarantines. Am I afraid of catching 2019-nCoV in Canada? Not really. If, and it is a big if, we start to see large exponentially growing outbreaks elsewhere (outside of China) then my level of concern will increase.

It could be the reason they're quarantining 50 million people is...they've learned a few things from, and since, SARS...?

Gosh, could it? You know, people get really bent out of shape when you talk about governments learning lessons from other outbreaks - apparently SARS was an unmitigated catastrophe.

[Castorero]

Seems pointless to enjoin a debate on what is clearly an infectious disease/epidemiological topic, on this, a forum populated by pilots. And that is not meant to disparage my brother pilots in any way.

Some, have shown intellectual capacities on this thread alone, worthy of a PhD in something, or at least an advanced degree in a variety of disciplines besides aviation. And I am being serious when I say that.

The mere mention of percentages, analyses, and other minutiae related to this topic, causes
my vision to blur and my already P&W ravaged hearing to fade to nil.

One thing that i am certain of, is that China is a totalitarian state, hell bent on controlling every morsel of information or news that ends up on the radar of the local population and elsewhere.

Since Xi's rise to power those efforts have reached stifling proportions.

Imagine arresting and imprisoning local health officials for informing residents in affected areas of this viral risk. The crime?... "fear mongering".

Is it any wonder that we in the West and elsewhere, are concerned with the past and present lack of transparency and timely sharing of information regarding this current outbreak ?

It is laudable that China has taken gargantuan measures aimed at containing this "Plague".

Imagine, a huge hospital complex put together in just ten days. This did not happen because some local council decided to act with foresight. You can bet the direction came from the top.

Something does not add up in this whole affair, and I will maintain until shown otherwise, that we have not been told all the facts as China currently knows them.

I have been aware for some time now, of the presence of China apologists and ardent defenders, in all manner of fora and publications, when something remotely "injurious" is said about China.

Until today, I have had no indication whatsoever that this forum could have been so, infected.

I am starting to harbor some suspicions...

Is this paranoia or simple apprehension? I just don't know...

[Eric Janson]

Well this is going to have a huge impact on our industry imho.

A number of countries have finally closed their borders to people coming from China - going against the WHO who have shown themselves to be completely useless so far.

I'm expecting increasing flight cancellations across the globe. This will be followed by mass layoffs imho.

I'm guessing a lot of people are re-evaluating their travel plans.

Finally does anyone have a website that gives good coverage of the Corona Virus outbreak? - I'm always looking for new sources of information.

Criticism of zerohedge is certainly justified - but they have the best coverage I've been able to find.

[Heliian]

Well this is going to have a huge impact on our industry imho.

A number of countries have finally closed their borders to people coming from China - going against the WHO who have shown themselves to be completely useless so far.

I'm expecting increasing flight cancellations across the globe. This will be followed by mass layoffs imho.

I'm guessing a lot of people are re-evaluating their travel plans.

Finally does anyone have a website that gives good coverage of the Corona Virus outbreak? - I'm always looking for new sources of information.

Criticism of zerohedge is certainly justified - but they have the best coverage I've been able to find.

WHO is the one that made the recommendations for controls. Many other countries besides the usa and canada have joined in on the quarantine. There is no conspiracy.

[7ECA]

It may, or may not, have a large impact on aviation. Obviously large scale shutdowns of routes will have an impact on the bottom line; but it's not as though flights have been stopped to the entire Asia/Pacific region.

Closing borders will be ineffective, as it incentivizes smuggling - if people are desperate to get out of China that is. The other question is, how porous are the borders into Russia and surrounding nations? Is it actually feasible to close the entire border, or is this more a symbolic move?

It's my understanding that the WHOs recommendations for controls are mostly for quarantining potentially ill or possibly contagious individuals. They're realistic enough to know that you won't be able to stop all movements to/from China - not to mention the fact that people were travelling freely while 2019-nCoV was hardly a blip on the international radar. The main centres for the outbreak still remain in China, so continued efforts at quarantine are the best bet for containing things to a "manageable" level. If wider outbreaks begin occurring elsewhere in the world, then things will get more interesting - and that would lead to damage to not only the aviation industry, but likely a significant economic reversal.

[Eric Janson]

It may, or may not, have a large impact on aviation. Obviously large scale shutdowns of routes will have an impact on the bottom line; but it's not as though flights have been stopped to the entire Asia/Pacific region.

If the Corona Virus gets loose in India or Indonesia then large scale route shutdowns will take place imho. Last week Indonesia did not have any way to test for the Corona Virus.

I have received second hand info that all Expat Pilots at China Southern have been put on LWOP (Leave WithOut Pay).

Additionally if they can't come back when called due to travel restrictions their contracts will be terminated.

The number I have heard is that 400+ Expat Pilots have been put on LWOP at various Airlines across China.

There were some Pilots working in China on this board - can anyone clarify the situation?

I understand that an evacuation flight is being organised for Canadian citizens from Wuhan.

[Castorero]

There is plenty of scientific data now that sides squarely against travel bans, whether by air, or donkey cart.

Hence the WHO recommendations against closing borders.

At best travel bans only Delay the spread to other countries by only 2-4 days. Hardly worth the economic fallout that can cripple smaller economies that rely on tourism.

Canadian Health Minister appears to be following the Science on this one as she has been well briefed on the evidence and past experience in Canada.

I wish her well, as she will be pilloried either way if things don't go well.

[rookiepilot]

Zerohedge is Zeroedge, in my world.

That said no one trusts data released from China in my world, either.

[rookiepilot]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5455224

At least the 6th article from the CBC on third hand reports of racism since this virus came out. At least. None about the people who died from it, though.

Ok we get it. Your're obsessed CBC, with the slightest offense against visible minorities.

If some nasty comments is the worst thing that's happened in your life, suck it up. Seriously.

[corethatthermal]

Tintin may have "mistakenly" let out death and infection figures 10 times higher than what the chinese authorities are saying . This also might have been a weaponized virus brought into Winnipeg from Saudi Arabia and then stolen and taken to Wuhan. Maybe it was not from the Wet ( seafood ) market in Wuhan but rather from the research facility , in which case, the authorities would KNOW how dangerous it is!

['97 Tercel]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ ... -1.5455224

At least the 6th article from the CBC on third hand reports of racism since this virus came out. At least. None about the people who died from it, though.

Ok we get it. Your're obsessed CBC, with the slightest offense against visible minorities.

If some nasty comments is the worst thing that's happened in your life, suck it up. Seriously.

Exactly. CBC news has become painful to watch/read.

If I chose not to eat at a Chinese restaurant these days, it would not mean I was racist.

[2R]

It took SARS almost six months to hit the 1000 dead mark. This new bug is already at 100 dead a day and it has just started .
Quarantine of 14 days may change to 28 days if it can be spread by persons without symptoms.
The arrests and forced detentions have begun , how long before " Head Shots " start ?
Smokers are more likely to get the bad version , no word on vapers yet . Might just be the face touching that happens during smoking that is skewing the stats , smokers who do not touch their faces during their smoking or touch hands getting a light ?
Those long cigarette holders may make a comeback ,
The only drawback is where will they be made