When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

This forum has been developed to discuss aviation related topics.

Moderators: lilfssister, North Shore, ahramin, sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, I WAS Birddog

When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

6 months
15
4%
1 year
52
15%
2 years
111
33%
3 years
76
23%
4 years
22
7%
5 years
22
7%
between 5 and 10 years
17
5%
more than 10 years
10
3%
never
12
4%
 
Total votes: 337

garfield
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 222
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2014 5:35 pm

When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by garfield »

What's your guess?
---------- ADS -----------
  

flyingcanuck
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:55 am

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by flyingcanuck »

Definitely hard to tell. Even if tomorrow they gave out a vaccine I still don't think the flood gates would open with passengers.. Its going to be gradual increase. It may never get back to as good as it was pre COVID
---------- ADS -----------
  

GoinVertical
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by GoinVertical »

People always forget history and "lessons learned". Eventually it will get back to pre-COVID levels, but who knows when.

I believe the full economic fallout of this is yet to be seen and will have a bigger effect than peoples' fear of a new contagion.

Businesses that are just scraping by won't be able to afford travel and will continue with their Zoom meetings.

People that have taken a pay cut or layoff (and that's a good number of people) won't be able to afford their regular vacations or trips to visit family.

Those companies doing a lot of fly-in fly-out flying for mines, "essential service" northern and remote destinations will recover more quickly.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
schnitzel2k3
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

I think if anything this is going to exacerbate the shortage going forward.

I am sure flying for the general public will change as it does when it's faced with major obstacles like COVID-19 or 9/11. There will be a lengthy spool up period, but at the end of the day, people enjoy traveling.

Air Canada was set to hire IIRC up to 900 people this year based on December growth projections. While that demand is acutely surpressed, there is no doubt that level of travel demand will return.

What is certain is any entry level pilots or prospective pilots will be scared away from the industry after this most recent down turn, and it is my belief that the effects of COVID-19 could drive future shortages to be even more extreme.

Time will tell.
---------- ADS -----------
  

DHQ
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 192
Joined: Thu Apr 08, 2004 4:07 pm
Location: Ontario/Anywhere

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by DHQ »

I think things will pick back up and that demand that was there will return. But when it does, and things are going great... keep in the back of your mind that Covid-29 will come one day again.
---------- ADS -----------
  

GATRKGA
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 155
Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:24 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by GATRKGA »

I think one thing a lot of people have to remember is this.

The majority of people that fly on planes for leisure, live for next month. It’s why all of them need to be bailed out when they lose their jobs. No one actually has savings. And anything remotely attached to entertainment is 99% on the credit card or line of credit.

So for those that say people won’t fly cause of being broke, I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on that opinion.

I think you’re going to see record spending on credit cards when people are freed from their jail cells and leisure travel will be one of the first to spring back up. Don’t forget the #yolo generation will do anything to keep their Instagram page pretty and “baller.” Even if they’re on the brink of bankruptcy. Which as we just saw the government demonstrate, they won’t let happen anyway with all the subsidies and deferral programs.

Case in point? Everyone was contributing to the booming travel market without enough money to whether next months covid19 in February. They will be back flying shortly.

Hope I’m right, so that we can all be flying soon.
---------- ADS -----------
  

shimmydampner
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1648
Joined: Sat Feb 21, 2004 3:59 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by shimmydampner »

schnitzel2k3 wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:09 pm
I think if anything this is going to exacerbate the shortage going forward.

While that demand is acutely surpressed, there is no doubt that level of travel demand will return.

What is certain is any entry level pilots or prospective pilots will be scared away from the industry after this most recent down turn, and it is my belief that the effects of COVID-19 could drive future shortages to be even more extreme.
I respectfully disagree. My opinion is almost diametrically opposed to this. There is absolutely doubt that that level of travel will return. If anything, businesses and governments are being forced to discover that virtual meetings are often just as effective as the real thing, or at the very least, more cost effective. And let's be real: that's the more important demographic than the flip flop sporting, sweat pant wearing, Swoop fare seeking, human trash that has crowded airports as of late. Furthermore, it's the least well kept secret in the business, that pilots don't become pilots because they think it's a secure job; it's because they think it's cool. Or they're a bit lazy. Or both. Either way, this won't stem the tide of wannabe pilots.
---------- ADS -----------
  

Loon-A-Tic
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 33
Joined: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:51 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by Loon-A-Tic »

One word; NEVER, the industry was ripe for a correction and every Board of Directors is knee deep in re-setting their airline's business model to deal with all the issues that existed well before Covid19
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
schnitzel2k3
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

shimmydampner wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:59 pm
schnitzel2k3 wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:09 pm
I think if anything this is going to exacerbate the shortage going forward.

While that demand is acutely surpressed, there is no doubt that level of travel demand will return.

What is certain is any entry level pilots or prospective pilots will be scared away from the industry after this most recent down turn, and it is my belief that the effects of COVID-19 could drive future shortages to be even more extreme.
I respectfully disagree. My opinion is almost diametrically opposed to this. There is absolutely doubt that that level of travel will return. If anything, businesses and governments are being forced to discover that virtual meetings are often just as effective as the real thing, or at the very least, more cost effective. And let's be real: that's the more important demographic than the flip flop sporting, sweat pant wearing, Swoop fare seeking, human trash that has crowded airports as of late. Furthermore, it's the least well kept secret in the business, that pilots don't become pilots because they think it's a secure job; it's because they think it's cool. Or they're a bit lazy. Or both. Either way, this won't stem the tide of wannabe pilots.
Respectfully, I hope you are wrong for both our sakes.

Cheers!
---------- ADS -----------
  

FL320
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:44 am

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by FL320 »

Many friends (not working in aviation) are planning to go on vacation asap. Leisure travel may recover quicker than business.

https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/article ... -air-chief
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
schnitzel2k3
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun May 15, 2011 11:17 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

GATRKGA wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:55 pm
Don’t forget the #yolo generation will do anything to keep their Instagram page pretty and “baller.” Even if they’re on the brink of bankruptcy. Which as we just saw the government demonstrate, they won’t let happen anyway with all the subsidies and deferral programs.
I think it's going to be the retirement generation (Boomers) who are going to bring back flying.

The YOLO generation has been punted back to the starting line once again.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
valleyboy
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue May 03, 2016 4:05 am
Contact:

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by valleyboy »

The last of the baby boomers (born 1964) are still good to work until 2029, why would any senior pilot want to leave a company early if he is healthy, it's the cash cow years after all.

I personally hope the level of insanity never returns. I think this is a real reality check for airlines and they will concentrate on core business. I wouldn't be surprised to see WS think about dumping Encore and going into a fee for departure like Jazz

There was a dramatic increase in jobs and airline expansion that bordered on the absurd and a far more dramatic vertical drop to the trough of the aviation wave. Marginal routes will be dropped and it will be up to smaller carriers stepping up under code share. Commuter airlines have been traditionally been the first to get hammered when there are roll backs so it's only logical that level one carriers would like to explore some kind of buffer.

Ticket prices will go up and likely that is a good thing, maybe the paying public will get better service, options and aircraft comfort. Un-necessary travel was one of the biggest causes for the rapid spread of this virus. It would be nice to see airline industry establish its self above the "grey hound bus" mentality environment.

I'm don't think I'm stuck in a time warp but flying airplanes for a living was a lot more fun way back when.
---------- ADS -----------
  

Launchpad1
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:49 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by Launchpad1 »

In my opinion the demand is going to get back to February 2020 levels in February 2021 (so long as there isn’t another second wave in the fall). This year is probably pretty much done for but a lot of events that should have happened this year have been postponed to next year etc.
---------- ADS -----------
  

bald seagull
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 53
Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2007 5:59 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by bald seagull »

Until there's a proven vaccine.....it'll be years. Young wannabe's will actually become better pilots, cutting their teeth getting 5,000 hours in King Airs before following that magenta line at AC
---------- ADS -----------
  

Big Pistons Forever
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5190
Joined: Wed Feb 18, 2004 7:17 pm
Location: West Coast

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

The industry took about 5 years to regain their level of operations after the 9/11 downturn. I would suggest that that would be a good historical metric.

My personal predictions is that there will be no new hiring at the regional or main line airlines before 2025. The only bright spot is going to be for the owners of the smaller 703 operations and flight schools. For the first time in quite awhile they will have the luxury of operating with with a stable group of well qualified pilots.
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
flying4dollars
Rank 8
Rank 8
Posts: 891
Joined: Mon Jul 09, 2007 8:56 am

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by flying4dollars »

shimmydampner wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:59 pm
schnitzel2k3 wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:09 pm
I think if anything this is going to exacerbate the shortage going forward.

While that demand is acutely surpressed, there is no doubt that level of travel demand will return.

What is certain is any entry level pilots or prospective pilots will be scared away from the industry after this most recent down turn, and it is my belief that the effects of COVID-19 could drive future shortages to be even more extreme.
I respectfully disagree. My opinion is almost diametrically opposed to this. There is absolutely doubt that that level of travel will return. If anything, businesses and governments are being forced to discover that virtual meetings are often just as effective as the real thing, or at the very least, more cost effective. And let's be real: that's the more important demographic than the flip flop sporting, sweat pant wearing, Swoop fare seeking, human trash that has crowded airports as of late. Furthermore, it's the least well kept secret in the business, that pilots don't become pilots because they think it's a secure job; it's because they think it's cool. Or they're a bit lazy. Or both. Either way, this won't stem the tide of wannabe pilots.
I'm sure companies would have figured out that hosting web chats would have been more cost effective pre-pandemic. I also think its grossly ignorant to call passengers travelling on Swoop human trash. Is that how you categorize the people who couldn't afford to fly before the entrance of ULCC's? I guess by your opinion about companies saving money by hosting web conferences, they could also save money by putting employees on Swoop or Flair on the same routes that they serve as well to save cost too and avoid the higher prices of AC or WJ right? I also believe people want to become pilots for other reasons than ONLY the two you mentioned. So, I respectfully disagree with your disagreement :rolleyes:
---------- ADS -----------
  

BigQ
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 109
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:41 pm
Location: YUL-ish

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by BigQ »

Voted 4 years... Because it'll take about 1 month for North America to re-open its businesses, 10 or so months for everybody to get re-hired, or start jobs somewhere else, and 3 years for people to stop cowering in fear and realize that this virus was a convenient economic reset excuse.

Same death rates as the flu, as of April 25.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&t=1115s
---------- ADS -----------
  

172_Captain
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:16 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by 172_Captain »

BigQ wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:00 pm
Voted 4 years... Because it'll take about 1 month for North America to re-open its businesses, 10 or so months for everybody to get re-hired, or start jobs somewhere else, and 3 years for people to stop cowering in fear and realize that this virus was a convenient economic reset excuse.

Same death rates as the flu, as of April 25.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&t=1115s
Please, catch the virus and report back with your findings.
---------- ADS -----------
  

Aux1
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:39 am

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by Aux1 »

BigQ wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:00 pm
Same death rates as the flu, as of April 25.
“I mean people always say, 'Well, the flu does this, the flu does that,'” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), said Wednesday during a hearing before the House Oversight and Reform Committee.
“The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that."

And then there are the rows of refrigerated morgue trucks...
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mi ... -19-deaths

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... yes-by-far

It's not like the flu bro.
---------- ADS -----------
  

co-joe
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 3639
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 2:33 am
Location: YYC 230 degree radial at about 10 DME

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by co-joe »

schnitzel2k3 wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:09 pm
I think if anything this is going to exacerbate the shortage going forward.

I am sure flying for the general public will change as it does when it's faced with major obstacles like COVID-19 or 9/11. There will be a lengthy spool up period, but at the end of the day, people enjoy traveling.

Air Canada was set to hire IIRC up to 900 people this year based on December growth projections. While that demand is acutely surpressed, there is no doubt that level of travel demand will return.

What is certain is any entry level pilots or prospective pilots will be scared away from the industry after this most recent down turn, and it is my belief that the effects of COVID-19 could drive future shortages to be even more extreme.

Time will tell.
I agree. Air Canada was 900+ plus pilots short of a full roster, not including the unfilled spots on the Max, plus they offered a bunch of early retirements, plus Jazz was hundreds of pilots short. I say 18 months for full recovery, AC will be more like 1500 pilots short, when big red hires, everybody hires. Remember in 911 there was still a glut of pilots on the market so things went back to normal which was you needed 4000 hours to even apply to the majors....

That's if global currencies don't collapse.
---------- ADS -----------
  

florch
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 126
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 9:22 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by florch »

If I'm able to hold 2 ideas in my head at the same time - that the disease is serious AND that the longer the economy is idled, the harder the recovery which will eventually result in serious tax shortfalls for heavy spending governments. Some people think there will be higher taxes to follow and maybe, but not right away because that pulls stimulus out of the system which is the point of all these handouts. We will see inflation first.

Our sector will be one of the last to get the full green light. Business travel has been pushed towards online meetings. They were headed that way anyway, but because that tech has existed in some form for years, I think most business travel will return. Some travelers will be affected by income loss for a while, and others will be fine. Lots of people are mitigating their problems by tightening their spending. Retirees, gov't workers and a few other sectors haven't missed a pay cheque. Medical professionals will take a much deserved break at some point.

I've seen a few posters longing to return to a higher class of traveler. It boggles my mind that someone could be so stuck up that they care whose money they take or what kind of person they serve or that they feel fit to decide if such people are making wise spending decisions. If people want to spend their hard earned money to come on my plane, they will be welcomed warmly. I believe most of us at least act that way. Without democratized travel this industry is just a luxury when we've been trying for years to make it a part of the infrastructure that serves everyone. How is it in a pilot's interest not to supply that service?

I voted 3 years for a full return. Might be just 2. Fundamentals were decent heading into the storm.
---------- ADS -----------
  

gtappl
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 49
Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:48 am

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by gtappl »

GATRKGA wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:55 pm
I think one thing a lot of people have to remember is this.

The majority of people that fly on planes for leisure, live for next month. It’s why all of them need to be bailed out when they lose their jobs. No one actually has savings. And anything remotely attached to entertainment is 99% on the credit card or line of credit.

So for those that say people won’t fly cause of being broke, I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on that opinion.

I think you’re going to see record spending on credit cards when people are freed from their jail cells and leisure travel will be one of the first to spring back up. Don’t forget the #yolo generation will do anything to keep their Instagram page pretty and “baller.” Even if they’re on the brink of bankruptcy. Which as we just saw the government demonstrate, they won’t let happen anyway with all the subsidies and deferral programs.

Case in point? Everyone was contributing to the booming travel market without enough money to whether next months covid19 in February. They will be back flying shortly.

Hope I’m right, so that we can all be flying soon.
I love the shit talking about the "yolo generation" here but it's like everyone forgets all of the boomers who took home equity loans thinking the market would never catch up with them
---------- ADS -----------
  

RippleRock
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 100
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by RippleRock »

We will have a much better idea in June.

By then the Governments "go forward" plan will be clearer, as will actual morbidity rates which seem on the decline. We will have come a long way in a month. The "at risk" will be properly isolated and monitored, which is huge.

A bit of "herd immunity" will have been attained, and we will be much closer to "short term help" in the form of effective antibodies for emergency use. We will also be closer to "quick testing", which will be a massive leap forward.

An effective vaccine is still a ways off, unless those who have agreed to participate in the clinical trials allow themselves to be infected intentionally in small increments. This could be done on the very healthy, and would shave 6 months off the search. If they offered healthy individuals $20,000 (tax exempt) to participate in these trials, they would be breaking down the doors. They would be labeled as heros and would save many thousands of lives. It would never happen though.
---------- ADS -----------
  

160tonoaha
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:34 pm

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by 160tonoaha »

gtappl wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:10 pm
GATRKGA wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:55 pm
I think one thing a lot of people have to remember is this.

The majority of people that fly on planes for leisure, live for next month. It’s why all of them need to be bailed out when they lose their jobs. No one actually has savings. And anything remotely attached to entertainment is 99% on the credit card or line of credit.

So for those that say people won’t fly cause of being broke, I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on that opinion.

I think you’re going to see record spending on credit cards when people are freed from their jail cells and leisure travel will be one of the first to spring back up. Don’t forget the #yolo generation will do anything to keep their Instagram page pretty and “baller.” Even if they’re on the brink of bankruptcy. Which as we just saw the government demonstrate, they won’t let happen anyway with all the subsidies and deferral programs.

Case in point? Everyone was contributing to the booming travel market without enough money to whether next months covid19 in February. They will be back flying shortly.

Hope I’m right, so that we can all be flying soon.
I love the shit talking about the "yolo generation" here but it's like everyone forgets all of the boomers who took home equity loans thinking the market would never catch up with them
Triggered? :lol:
---------- ADS -----------
  

User avatar
780Pilot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:53 pm
Location: Edmonton

Re: When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

Post by 780Pilot »

The people saying how virtual meetings are the future and working from home is the new normal forget one thing.. Productivity goes way down. People simply don't get as much done at home vs being in the office. So when things get back to normal people will travel for in person meetings and work because that is how things get done. On top of that people like to vacation and like others have said will forget about this and carry on eventually. The real question is how long for the current state of things to return to normal levels. Frankly its hard to say until we see how the re opening the economy plans go in respective provinces. Then, the question about how the rest of the world recovers. However I think people saying regional carriers wont hire until 2025 is a little nuts.
---------- ADS -----------
  

Post Reply

Return to “General Comments”