When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

[FL320]

L

[goldeneagle]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

If airlines give customers refunds for services not delivered, then maybe talk about some financial help. As long as they just give vouchers, they already have that money in the form of an interest free loan from customers, and governments covering wages while they figure out how the downsizing is going to work. That's more help than most businesses are getting, most are required by law to give refunds for services not delivered.

[FL320]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

If airlines give customers refunds for services not delivered, then maybe talk about some financial help. As long as they just give vouchers, they already have that money in the form of an interest free loan from customers, and governments covering wages while they figure out how the downsizing is going to work. That's more help than most businesses are getting, most are required by law to give refunds for services not delivered.

I agree with you; and they should give back the money to the customers. That’s what I would be expecting as a passenger.

[dot123]

Even if it gets back to normal, it won't be the same.

[piperdriver]

Even if it gets back to normal, it won't be the same.

Why will it not be the same?

[Hilroy]

3rd quarter is estimated to be a 25% total capacity vs 2019 Q3. Still about 10% for Q2.

[Jetfly]

In the UK the Q3 is even looking rubbish. From what I have read, flying pax should increase more due June. It is going to be hard.

[dialedin]

Our sector will be one of the last to get the full green light. Business travel has been pushed towards online meetings. They were headed that way anyway, but because that tech has existed in some form for years, I think most business travel will return. Some travelers will be affected by income loss for a while, and others will be fine. Lots of people are mitigating their problems by tightening their spending. Retirees, gov't workers and a few other sectors haven't missed a pay cheque. Medical professionals will take a much deserved break at some point.

I'm one of those people who havent missed a paycheck....i work in agriculture. And the wife and i already have plans to travel once we get the green light, but not on an airplane, international or domestically for awhile. LIkely be driving someplace and spend some time by the ocean somewhere.

I'm also working toward a PPL (hence my being here), which has been put on hold as well. So as stated elsewhere, i think schools are going to have a hayday long before anyone else in this sector. Soon as i get that call that my instructor is back in business, i'm going to be going like mad to get my last 10 or so hrs in and a written done....before the next wave of this comes!

[golden hawk]

40yo pilot in training here. I made a choice, and I will see it through. I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and one or two pandemics. We will see the other side of this.

When do I think flying will be back to February 2020 levels? In February 2022. But it will be back. It's gonna be rough, but not 9/11 rough.

I need to believe this, because I've made my choice. But I do not think I'm wrong.

I wish you the best but this we are dealing with now is like 10 times worse than 9/11.

Oh my God, that's 9110!

For those who didn't get it.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZcZ6eJoxeE

A movie that never stops being funny!

[sjatana]

It took years for the industry to get to where it was before the virus. I imagine it will be the same this time around. This is a tough pill to swallow but it's our reality. Who knows how long it will take...

The cards will fall the way they will. I've found having fewer expectations leads to fewer disappointments. Make the best of what you have now and the time that you have. Death, taxes and uncertainty are the guarantees of life.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

Much Much more than a bump or a temporary slowdown. I don’t want to be right about this, but I think that we are going to feel the echo of COVID 19 for a decade.

Alright, so let me pose this question...

As someone who is (or at least, was) looking to be a bush pilot for a good number of undetermined years, halfway through training, what does my future look like?

['97 Tercel]

I think probably not destroyed -- just add 3-5 years onto your original plans. If that still works ok, keep at it - if not then I guess bail out and do something different (like become a virologist)

[Stayfly121]

I agree with your perspective. Your typical leisure traveler is completely different in todays day. Young people are willing to take the risks. For older folks, yes there will be concerns but for the young generation, the live fast die young generation, they'll hop on a plane the next chance they get to head over to Bali. For the industry people that are concerned about the money aspect, yes it will hold back the smarter folks from leisure travelling but with with the current power of social media, young adults with credit cards and and some left of CERB money will be ready to book their tickets. I believe there will be an initial spike in leisure travel for people that have been locked up due to this virus. It will slow down and then eventually pick back up gradually. The moment there a vaccine available, we'll being to see the trajectory take a positive turn.

godspeed

[leftoftrack]

Never, it'll never be the same

[fishface]

Never, it'll never be the same

Why though? That’s what was said after 9/11.
Oh but this time it’s different. That’s what was said after 9/11.

The demand for air travel has been steadily increasing every year every year every year. I think it’s just a pause and we’ll get over it.
To say it’ll never be the same? I dunno..

[Launchpad1]

I wonder what will be the thing to stick after this (after 911 it was of course all the extra security). Will it be everyone has to wear a face mask on an aircraft, temperature checks at the airport. Somethings going to change for sure.

[JohnnyHotRocks]

Masks on planes will likely be the permanent change after all this

[MrAviator19]

Possible travel changes post-virus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZLZqGFV-nc&t=6s

[Gear Jerker]

I think that more robust aircraft cleaning/sanitizing will be permanent. Social norms in terms of hand washing, more people doing what we were all taught to do as kids and cough/sneeze into your elbow etc., and I could also see some kind of questionnaire/legal statement confirming that you're healthy before travelling becomes mandatory.

I don't think that wearing masks on airplanes will become the norm, or at least not in North America. I imagine that for a period of perhaps 5-10 years people will often choose to wear them and it won't seem odd when they do.

Game changer in terms of pandemic preparedness/research for sure. And the big unknown is the economic aspects; ie how long to recover from the recession. I don't think this will result in a depression, as a depression is loosely defined as 4 quarters of retraction in the economy. Also, how it shakes out in terms of companies surviving, consolidating etc. For our industry, once things settle down again in 3-5 years I think it'll be more or less a reversion to the mean.

My answer to the thread question was 3 years. 2 is optimistic. Less than 2 doesn't sound realistic. I'd love to be wrong.

[DirtyDashDriver]

I wonder what will be the thing to stick after this (after 911 it was of course all the extra security). Will it be everyone has to wear a face mask on an aircraft, temperature checks at the airport. Somethings going to change for sure.

Remember: individuals are smart and groups are stupid.

Temperature checks are a given. Whether that will be taken at check-in, security, the gate, or through an automated system that looks for "hot spots," who knows. My bet is that it will be a relatively quick transition from the handheld units to a centralized system because the zeitgeist won't permit the obvious indignities of having a probe forced towards a head for too long. Think a Y2K level response, but with infrared units throughout the terminal.

As for the face masks, those are gone as soon as word comes down that a vaccine has been approved. Better than half the people don't wear them properly now and just this last week I had conversations with flight attendants on three or four different flights about kicking people off because they refused to wear them, so yeah - gone.

If you really want to know what post-2020 will look like, look at the 1920s following the Spanish Flu as many of the same sentiments were expressed then - wash your hands, cover your face, don't go out unless you have to. Heck, people were barred from boarding streetcars unless they wore masks - that sounds strangely familiar. By the mid-1920's it was almost forgotten and people got on with their lives as though it never happened, and the same will happen here.