When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

['97 Tercel]

By the mid-1920's it was almost forgotten and people got on with their lives as though it never happened, and the same will happen here.

Good point - and it came roaring back when life did return.. (of course it was after a war as well)

[rigpiggy]

I bet 5-10 years anybody want to give me odds? I have 20$

[RippleRock]

I bet 5-10 years anybody want to give me odds? I have 20$

I'll take those odds. Triple them if you like, I'll still take them.

We are THREE months into this "shutdown" and Provinces are already at Stage 2 of reopening the economy. Airline stocks in the US have jumped up to 40% yesterday. AC is showing strong bookings leading into summer. Most Epidemiologists are predicting multiple vaccines ( with varying degrees of effectiveness) will be available within a year. At least five promising vaccine candidates are already in human clinical trials. Nearly a hundred others are being fast-tracked.

The Government is now admitting that the elderly are most vulnerable with 50% of the deaths in long term care facilities (where kids drop off their parents to die, essentially) They really dropped the ball badly here, and they know it, as there were indications in January that this virus compromised mainly the elderly, as the Flu does. (lots of elderly in care homes in close proximity....duhhhh)

Your low end estimate of five years is 20x the timeframe from lockdown (late March to early June) to Stage 2 restriction lifting. People are already restless and want things back to normal. They won't stand for another broadly targeted lockdown for what is essentially a slightly more virulent Flu bug. The insanity seen in New Brunswick is hopefully the last straw for many. The individual who died was on deaths door anyway. One could only hope to make it to 85. Any thought of locking the Province back down is plain fascism. I wouldn't blame some for suicide under this rule. What hope is there if the hard target is zero cases and zero deaths? Just like with the regular Flu, heart disease, smoking, and driving deaths there has to be some flexibility and acceptance or things will never return to normal. We may be living with this forever.

[780Pilot]

I bet 5-10 years anybody want to give me odds? I have 20$

I'll take those odds. Triple them if you like, I'll still take them.

We are THREE months into this "shutdown" and Provinces are already at Stage 2 of reopening the economy. Airline stocks in the US have jumped up to 40% yesterday. AC is showing strong bookings leading into summer. Most Epidemiologists are predicting multiple vaccines ( with varying degrees of effectiveness) will be available within a year. At least five promising vaccine candidates are already in human clinical trials. Nearly a hundred others are being fast-tracked.

The Government is now admitting that the elderly are most vulnerable with 50% of the deaths in long term care facilities (where kids drop off their parents to die, essentially) They really dropped the ball badly here, and they know it, as there were indications in January that this virus compromised mainly the elderly, as the Flu does. (lots of elderly in care homes in close proximity....duhhhh)

Your low end estimate of five years is 20x the timeframe from lockdown (late March to early June) to Stage 2 restriction lifting. People are already restless and want things back to normal. They won't stand for another broadly targeted lockdown for what is essentially a slightly more virulent Flu bug. The insanity seen in New Brunswick is hopefully the last straw for many. The individual who died was on deaths door anyway. One could only hope to make it to 85. Any thought of locking the Province back down is plain fascism. I wouldn't blame some for suicide under this rule. What hope is there if the hard target is zero cases and zero deaths? Just like with the regular Flu, heart disease, smoking, and driving deaths there has to be some flexibility and acceptance or things will never return to normal. We may be living with this forever.

Me too. I will give him 20-1 lol

[Launchpad1]

I'm sure things will be very closely back to February 2020 levels in February 2021. Unless there's some super surge in the fall the scare factor of this thing is diminishing. At a point the desire for the masses to travel is going to overcome their fear of the virus.

The crunch month is probably going to be October 2020. If we can get through the month when mortgage deferrals end, the CERB ends and when the virus is likely to reappear in ernest (if it does) and be ok, then spring 2021 things should be back to near normal.

[KAG]

IMHO, 3- 4 years for major recovery but it will never again be as big as it was 3 months ago.
I say this as covid 19 is rewriting the global economic playbook. Online meetings are really going to chip into the business segment. That's a huge revenue stream for AC and Westjet, and both companies will need to pivot to compensate. God help us all if the middle seat ban becomes a long lasting policy.
This could really hurt, for a long time.
Couple that with what will be new taxes compliments of all the government help, and a newer slimmer economy- it all points to less desposable income.
I hope I'm very wrong, but I dare say the pilot shortage is over for many years.
The offset to this is the boomers retiring and AC will end up hiring before westjet as our workforce is largely younger.
Hang on to your seats, the music stopped.

[Old fella]

IMHO, 3- 4 years for major recovery but it will never again be as big as it was 3 months ago.
I say this as covid 19 is rewriting the global economic playbook. Online meetings are really going to chip into the business segment. That's a huge revenue stream for AC and Westjet, and both companies will need to pivot to compensate. God help us all if the middle seat ban becomes a long lasting policy.
This could really hurt, for a long time.
Couple that with what will be new taxes compliments of all the government help, and a newer slimmer economy- it all points to less desposable income.
I hope I'm very wrong, but I dare say the pilot shortage is over for many years.
The offset to this is the boomers retiring and AC will end up hiring before westjet as our workforce is largely younger.
Hang on to your seats, the music stopped.

Guess the question is how confident is the public in travelling outside of the country, domestically as well. With the continuation of restrictions ie masks, social distancing, provincial border restrictions,self isolation after travel et al I would argue the mindset is one of lacking confidence, but I could be wrong. I mean why would I want to go anywhere knowing a 14 day isolation period is a certainty upon return. I have a close family member who works for JDI Saint John NB and all travel has been curtailed this year, work from home and video calling is the new norm. Matter of fact if an employee travels outside of Province for personal reason and an isolation period is required upon return, it will be considered your vacation time, failing that unpaid leave. I was of the view things would bust loose once summertime hit but am not convinced now, not by a long shot. A turning point comes with a proven vaccine and confidence will flow from there. Unfortunately for your industry(airline) I believe the music has stopped and times will be tough on the pilot fraternity for awhile, sadly.

[mbav8r]

Seems like a good compromise to resume tourism and get things going again, no reason this couldn’t be done for inter-provincial travel as well.
https://simpleflying.com/alaska-covid-tests/
“Starting tomorrow, anyone heading to the state of Alaska will not be forced to quarantine, providing they take a COVID-19 test. Previously, anyone arriving in Alaska had to isolate for two weeks. The test can be taken before departing for Alaska or upon arrival.“
“For anyone who was unable to get tested before flying, a test will be administered upon arrival. Any passenger tested upon arrival will have to self-isolate until the test results are confirmed. These travelers will need a second test seven to 14 days after arrival.“

[ayseven]

Young people are not even social distancing now, let alone in a few months. It will all be forgotten by next year, although the pilot hiring situation may be stopped for a bit. But who knows? What happened to the vaccine they were working on in Saskatchewan?

[fishface]

Young people?
NOBODY is anymore.
But I do agree, it will be forgotten. The US riots are the new media frenzy now

[172_Captain]

Seems like a good compromise to resume tourism and get things going again, no reason this couldn’t be done for inter-provincial travel as well.
https://simpleflying.com/alaska-covid-tests/
“Starting tomorrow, anyone heading to the state of Alaska will not be forced to quarantine, providing they take a COVID-19 test. Previously, anyone arriving in Alaska had to isolate for two weeks. The test can be taken before departing for Alaska or upon arrival.“
“For anyone who was unable to get tested before flying, a test will be administered upon arrival. Any passenger tested upon arrival will have to self-isolate until the test results are confirmed. These travelers will need a second test seven to 14 days after arrival.“

Iceland is doing the same thing starting June 15th as well. Until Canada does away with the 14 day quarantine upon arrival, travel will continue to suffer. I’m myself ready to travel in and outside Canada. What’s keeping me home is the 14 day quarantine upon arrival back home. I think it’s utterly crazy that Iceland for example will let me in from Canada which has ~34,000 active cases with no mandatory quarantine as long as I submit to a test, yet when I return on a direct flight from Iceland which has 3 active cases as of this writing, I’m required to quarantine. Canada needs to do away with these draconian measures and bring itself into the future.

[mixturerich]

I'm sure things will be very closely back to February 2020 levels in February 2021. Unless there's some super surge in the fall the scare factor of this thing is diminishing. At a point the desire for the masses to travel is going to overcome their fear of the virus.

The crunch month is probably going to be October 2020. If we can get through the month when mortgage deferrals end, the CERB ends and when the virus is likely to reappear in ernest (if it does) and be ok, then spring 2021 things should be back to near normal.

I’m don’t think even the best case forecasts and recovery models share this optimism unfortunately. There are also way bigger things at play now than just the fear of the virus.

[FL320]

I'm sure things will be very closely back to February 2020 levels in February 2021. Unless there's some super surge in the fall the scare factor of this thing is diminishing. At a point the desire for the masses to travel is going to overcome their fear of the virus.

The crunch month is probably going to be October 2020. If we can get through the month when mortgage deferrals end, the CERB ends and when the virus is likely to reappear in ernest (if it does) and be ok, then spring 2021 things should be back to near normal.

I’m don’t think even the best case forecasts and recovery models share this optimism unfortunately. There are also way bigger things at play now than just the fear of the virus.

Some recovery models in Europe are now becoming much more optimistic; recovery will be faster than expected. Anyway from the beginning all these forecasts and models were just hypothesis and as usual not very accurate...the medias always issue the worst case scenarios as this is what people like; so they can make it even worse and then spread their feelings all over the internet. So what are the bigger things at play?

[jp7500]

700,000 mortgage deferrals in Canada since this all started, not a good sign:(

[mixturerich]

I'm sure things will be very closely back to February 2020 levels in February 2021. Unless there's some super surge in the fall the scare factor of this thing is diminishing. At a point the desire for the masses to travel is going to overcome their fear of the virus.

The crunch month is probably going to be October 2020. If we can get through the month when mortgage deferrals end, the CERB ends and when the virus is likely to reappear in ernest (if it does) and be ok, then spring 2021 things should be back to near normal.

I’m don’t think even the best case forecasts and recovery models share this optimism unfortunately. There are also way bigger things at play now than just the fear of the virus.

Some recovery models in Europe are now becoming much more optimistic; recovery will be faster than expected. Anyway from the beginning all these forecasts and models were just hypothesis and as usual not very accurate...the medias always issue the worst case scenarios as this is what people like; so they can make it even worse and then spread their feelings all over the internet. So what are the bigger things at play?

Well, it’s not the media coming up with the models. At least not the ones I look at.

Bigger things at play, I mean the economic consequences and ripple effects, and worldwide political and socioeconomic shifts. Even if people get over the fear of the virus (this can never reach 100%), the damage is done, and so begins the long recovery process. Historically speaking, I just can’t see how things will be back to normal in Feb 2021. I think that is too optimistic. Regardless, time will tell.

[mbav8r]

https://thepointsguy.com/news/global-ai ... 024-covid/
So, looking like the votes for a 4-5 year recovery are more likely to be correct

[McKinley]

I’m don’t think even the best case forecasts and recovery models share this optimism unfortunately. There are also way bigger things at play now than just the fear of the virus.

Some recovery models in Europe are now becoming much more optimistic; recovery will be faster than expected. Anyway from the beginning all these forecasts and models were just hypothesis and as usual not very accurate...the medias always issue the worst case scenarios as this is what people like; so they can make it even worse and then spread their feelings all over the internet. So what are the bigger things at play?

Well, it’s not the media coming up with the models. At least not the ones I look at.

Bigger things at play, I mean the economic consequences and ripple effects, and worldwide political and socioeconomic shifts. Even if people get over the fear of the virus (this can never reach 100%), the damage is done, and so begins the long recovery process. Historically speaking, I just can’t see how things will be back to normal in Feb 2021. I think that is too optimistic. Regardless, time will tell.

I agree with you ... 100%. There’s a ton of complexities with this mess.

I hope we’re wrong.

[PitchLink]

Changed globally for reduced flight likely for the next ten years. Changed flying and social interaction of humanity for the unforeseeable future. With this craziness I wouldn’t doubt ten plus years until flying picks back up to pre March 2020 levels, if ever. Humanity is learning more can be done from home than in an office. This is opening the blinders to many companies about office rent, paying for corporate and commuter flights for business etc. It will rebound, but not right after the vaccine is formulated, and that could take ten years! That’s the average for vaccine procurement...

[EPR]

One only has to look at the accelerated retirement of a relatively modern "long haul fleet" as well as a the few hundred "domestic breeds", put out to pasture well before anticipated retirement dates to realize, shit is real and not going to rebound anytime soon!

[iflyforpie]

Yes.. and this is a result of paradigm shifts that will likely become semi-permanent as time goes on.

The Baby Boomers. They are dependent on their investments, more vulnerable to the disease, more prone to being frightened by sensationalist news, and larger liabilities for insurance companies. I think it’s fair to say that they have driven a large part of the leisure travel market and will likely exit it in droves.

Business travellers. As we’ve known for many years and have seen with this pandemic, it is no longer necessary to travel to do most business related activities. While we might see an uptick in corporate, fractional, and charter flights because of this.. I think we will see an overall decline in business travel and there has already been capacity cuts and route abandonments that speak to this. The inefficiencies of e-commuting and working from home will be offset by eliminating the potential risks of having to quarantine a large portion of essential on-site staff for weeks should an outbreak occur.

The Millennials. The YOLO generation has also driven the travel market choosing to focus on experiences rather than possessions. But they’ve been hit hard twice in a decade and the time has come to grow up, try and settle into a decent paying job, and build or rebuild wealth.

All of this points to a large and permanent contraction in air travel that will only partially recover as the next generational surges approach adulthood and retirement or some semblance of sanity returns to the world.