Good observations, and I would think you are right. This pandemic is also going to force some boomers’ early retirement. I think there will be a drastic increase in many trades/professions that will shift to working from home.iflyforpie wrote: ↑Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:13 am Yes.. and this is a result of paradigm shifts that will likely become semi-permanent as time goes on.
The Baby Boomers. They are dependent on their investments, more vulnerable to the disease, more prone to being frightened by sensationalist news, and larger liabilities for insurance companies. I think it’s fair to say that they have driven a large part of the leisure travel market and will likely exit it in droves.
Business travellers. As we’ve known for many years and have seen with this pandemic, it is no longer necessary to travel to do most business related activities. While we might see an uptick in corporate, fractional, and charter flights because of this.. I think we will see an overall decline in business travel and there has already been capacity cuts and route abandonments that speak to this. The inefficiencies of e-commuting and working from home will be offset by eliminating the potential risks of having to quarantine a large portion of essential on-site staff for weeks should an outbreak occur.
The Millennials. The YOLO generation has also driven the travel market choosing to focus on experiences rather than possessions. But they’ve been hit hard twice in a decade and the time has come to grow up, try and settle into a decent paying job, and build or rebuild wealth.
All of this points to a large and permanent contraction in air travel that will only partially recover as the next generational surges approach adulthood and retirement or some semblance of sanity returns to the world.
Office / business / industrial building taxes/rent/hydro etc is a major drain on any business.
As for millenials, we like working from home for the most part I think “at least myself and my brother do”. Going in to an office o be monitored by the age old draconian work style of years passed will likely die off with the advent of biometric remote time clocks “they already exist” and zoom / Skype meetings etc.
The reality is that no one cares about being in an office packed with drama and strangers etc etc. Most all business can be and has been able to be conducted remotely for >10 years.
As for fixing and flying aircraft you have to show up for that, but in the aforementioned hypothesis, a reduction in on site workers will likely result as well as less time spent in the aircraft/hangar etc as most paper work can be completed remotely. As for the retirement of the A380,that aircraft was designed on an old business plan as well at the time and was sure to see its demise with the shrinking demand for air travel, let alone this likely permanent blow to air travel, it’s out of control with all the demand for cheap flights VS DOC of aircraft and maintaining pilot and maintenance salaries to a reasonable rate HA!
If anything this is a time for most operators and aircraft owners to re-evaluate the long term projections for their businesses. Rotary flight has been on shaky legs since 2008 and has never seen its height of demand since. Reduced exploration, reduced demand for commodities, reduced oil and gas and more roads in and out of these areas has all but extinguished a once very viable means of flight, now couple that with automation and drone technology for fixed and rotary wing aircraft and their ever growing popularity and you can see where the industry is going. Pipeline and wildlife survey once done by helicopter is almost all done by drone. Ag spraying drones are up to bay next and will likely be gps / automated. The future projections of 20 years ago are already here, and I think the once foggy crystal ball is becoming more clear...
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