A mess to regain confidence.

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mmm..bacon
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by mmm..bacon »

^Pelmet, no, although for people in their mid-80's, that is, of course, an unfortunate possibility. I was getting at the concept of 'Excess Mortality' - as outlined in Rockie's first link above yours. [As usual, I though that I had come up with a brilliant, original idea, only to find that someone older than me had come up with it first! LOL!]
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rookiepilot
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by rookiepilot »

That confidence taking a major hit down south today.....
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photofly
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by photofly »

pelmet wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:02 pm
mmm..bacon wrote: Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:45 am
Rockie wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 4:04 pm

466,000 dead world wide. 8400 dead in Canada. And of course the 120,000 dead in the US that is climbing by 1000 per day.
Those deaths aren't in a vacuum, though...the 'real' death numbers would be the deaths caused by CV that are in excess of the underlying normal death rate
Are you suggesting that the vast majority of those who have died from Covid-19 would be dead by now anyways? If so....not sure, could be possible.
Data:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... -countries
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pelmet
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:02 pm Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
U.S. health officials estimate 20 million Americans have had coronavirus.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4999818

This is why you should not listen to incompetents like Rockie. I have proven him wrong on every topic I have debated him on. Now you do the math and figure out the death rate. 5.58% is what he said as he demands to public officials to continue rules that result in you losing your career(while he is comfortably retired)....Not even close to the mortality rate he said. Now lets open up and get back to normal with vulnerable people quarantining.


America is going herd.
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mbav8r
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by mbav8r »

pelmet wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:04 pm
Rockie wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:02 pm Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
U.S. health officials estimate 20 million Americans have had coronavirus.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4999818

This is why you should not listen to incompetents like Rockie. I have proven him wrong on every topic I have debated him on. Now you do the math and figure out the death rate. 5.58% is what he said as he demands to public officials to continue rules that result in you losing your career(while he is comfortably retired)....Not even close to the mortality rate he said. Now lets open up and get back to normal with vulnerable people quarantining.


America is going herd.
Yah, sounds like it’s working out great for them

There are 198 Adult Intensive Care Unit beds available in the state, or 12%, as of Wednesday, state data shows. There are currently 1,495 ICU beds, or 88%, in use.

GILES: Humble said it's not too late to reverse Arizona's troubling trends. He said the governor should issue a new executive order requiring that Arizonans wear face masks and allow local governments to put in place restrictions stronger than the state's recommendations. State officials are developing a mask awareness campaign that may launch next week.
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pelmet
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by pelmet »

mbav8r wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:57 pm
pelmet wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:04 pm
Rockie wrote: Sun Jun 21, 2020 5:02 pm Actually as of April 6th the number of worldwide confirmed cases reported to the WHO is 1,210,244 with the number of related deaths standing at 67,583. Now there are a several caveats to go along with those numbers but to save you the trouble of doing the math yourseelf that equals a 5.58% mortality rate.

But what are stats and medical expertise against the awe inspiring mental powers of Professor Pelmet? We should all bow...
U.S. health officials estimate 20 million Americans have had coronavirus.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4999818

This is why you should not listen to incompetents like Rockie. I have proven him wrong on every topic I have debated him on. Now you do the math and figure out the death rate. 5.58% is what he said as he demands to public officials to continue rules that result in you losing your career(while he is comfortably retired)....Not even close to the mortality rate he said. Now lets open up and get back to normal with vulnerable people quarantining.


America is going herd.
Yah, sounds like it’s working out great for them

There are 198 Adult Intensive Care Unit beds available in the state, or 12%, as of Wednesday, state data shows. There are currently 1,495 ICU beds, or 88%, in use.
Flattening the curve means that the hospitals can cover the number pf patients. So far, they are below capacity. Hopefully, it stays that way.
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mixturerich
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by mixturerich »

Unfortunately, if you use lockdowns to flatten the curve, it no longer stays flat when you lift such restrictions, as we are now seeing in certain states. In less that two weeks from now, they are projecting ICU’s beyond surge capacity.
Here we go again.
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pelmet
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by pelmet »

mixturerich wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 12:16 am Unfortunately, if you use lockdowns to flatten the curve, it no longer stays flat when you lift such restrictions, as we are now seeing in certain states. In less that two weeks from now, they are projecting ICU’s beyond surge capacity.
Here we go again.
It probably will happen because the vulnerable are not quarantined. That will be the responsibility of the leaders of both parties.

Instead, some will want to shut down the entire economy again instead of the appropriate 5% of it.
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Rockie
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by Rockie »

The virus is as impervious to stupidity as Pelmet is to facts. Unfortunately in Canada we are stuck right next to the epicenter of stupidity and that is going to greatly delay our own recovery as we will need to keep the border closed until America grabs a brain.
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Launchpad1
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by Launchpad1 »

Things would have to get pretty bad (as in people keeling over in the streets foaming at the mouth bad) in a lot of states in the U.S for them to close down their economies again. There just isn't the will in either the politicians or the people to do that again in my opinion.
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Rockie
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by Rockie »

I don’t think they’ll have a choice, the only question is how bad it will get before they’re inevitably forced to their knees. The number of infections there never dropped to where it should have because they foolishly reopened too fast, and even more foolishly without taking the necessary precautions to prevent a resurgence. Now infections are just shy of their worst levels and are again increasing exponentially. The pain of the closure the last four months has been completely wasted and now things will get much, much worse.

The virus doesn’t have a brain but it ruthlessly punishes stupidity.
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mixturerich
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by mixturerich »

pelmet wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:41 amInstead, some will want to shut down the entire economy again instead of the appropriate 5% of it.
Get this man in the White House already!
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CpnCrunch
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by CpnCrunch »

Both Sweden's plan (just protect high risk) and Canada's plan (selective closures without complete lockdown) seem reasonable plans. The US simply doesn't have a plan, and is actively pushing dangerous pseudoscience. Fucking weird. Who would have thought the US would sink to that level?
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pelmet
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:21 am The virus is as impervious to stupidity as Pelmet is to facts. Unfortunately in Canada we are stuck right next to the epicenter of stupidity and that is going to greatly delay our own recovery as we will need to keep the border closed until America grabs a brain.
Thanks for telling us the facts Rockie....like your totally fake death rate that I quoted.

You are a fraud, whether on this or the fraudelent information you have passed along about aviation.
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Rockie
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by Rockie »

CpnCrunch wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:14 am Who would have thought the US would sink to that level?
.

As it turns out, a bit over half of the Americans and pretty much the entire rest of the world.
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pelmet
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by pelmet »

Another example of the stupidity we have.......

"A new study points to a disturbingly simple explanation for some of the havoc wrought by COVID-19 in Canada’s nursing homes: keeping residents in ward-like shared accommodation can be lethal.

The deaths of close to 300 long-term care residents in just one province could have been prevented if those individuals were housed in two-bed instead of four-bed rooms, suggests the research."


What have I said all along? Isolate the vulnerable. Four to a room is not isolation. Fecal-oral transmission sickens huge amounts of people in good times. It is going to be much more likely in an old folks home. Plus...I am told that many old folks homes don't allow locks on the rooms which allows dementia patients to wander into other rooms on a regular basis. This sort of thing has allowed epidemics such as flu to sweep through and kill many over the years. Covid is obviously even worse.

Proper, thorough isolation could prevent this. It would be expensive but not as expensive as unnecessarily shutting down the economy. Ignore the frauds like Rockie whose only solution is to shut everything down(except his pension) and isolate/quarantine effectively.
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photofly
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by photofly »

What have I said all along? Isolate the vulnerable. Four to a room is not isolation. Fecal-oral transmission sickens huge amounts of people in good times. It is going to be much more likely in an old folks home. Plus...I am told that many old folks homes don't allow locks on the rooms which allows dementia patients to wander into other rooms on a regular basis. This sort of thing has allowed epidemics such as flu to sweep through and kill many over the years. Covid is obviously even worse.
@#$! me. Now you're an expert on long term care as well?! There is no end to your knowledge!

These guys need your expertise, STAT:
https://www.oltca.com/OLTCA/
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DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
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RRJetPilot
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by RRJetPilot »

You are being sarcastic but they obviously do. Canada has the highest death rate in Care Homes compared to any other country. The military had to go in at one point. There will be a public inquiry regarding the failings in the care homes. Its an absolute failure. So some common sense and new ideas might actually be a positive thing.
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photofly
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by photofly »

Of course. It is an absolute failure. But I can promise you the answer won't be "make all rooms two-bed, and lock the doors." The problems are a lot deeper, and fixing them will take a lot more work.
Plus...I am told that many old folks homes don't allow locks on the rooms which allows dementia patients to wander into other rooms on a regular basis.
Pelmet may be surprised, but long term care is not a prison, and residents (note, not inmates) are not chained to their beds, either. Not even the ones with dementia.
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DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
Rockie
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Re: A mess to regain confidence.

Post by Rockie »

photofly wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:49 am
What have I said all along? Isolate the vulnerable. Four to a room is not isolation. Fecal-oral transmission sickens huge amounts of people in good times. It is going to be much more likely in an old folks home. Plus...I am told that many old folks homes don't allow locks on the rooms which allows dementia patients to wander into other rooms on a regular basis. This sort of thing has allowed epidemics such as flu to sweep through and kill many over the years. Covid is obviously even worse.
@#$! me. Now you're an expert on long term care as well?! There is no end to your knowledge!

These guys need your expertise, STAT:
https://www.oltca.com/OLTCA/
Much better he’s here than someplace where his kind of drivel has an audience. Like the White House.

I don’t understand with the hours of his life wasted obsessing over my every post he still doesn’t understand that nobody (including me) has ever called for permanent complete shutdown. The only people saying that is the Fox News crowd because they don’t watch anything else and wouldn’t know what a newspaper was if it were placed open on the table in front of them.
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