Open the door, no thanks

[5x5]

Speaking of data, here's a graph using the most basic data from Worldometer - worldwide cumulative numbers of cases and deaths. Started Apr 29 at 7% death rate and dropping steadily, now at 4.6% today. Take from it what you will.

Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 12.07.51.png (41.02 KiB) Viewed 1644 times

[Pilotdaddy]

Speaking of data, here's a graph using the most basic data from Worldometer - worldwide cumulative numbers of cases and deaths. Started Apr 29 at 7% death rate and dropping steadily, now at 4.6% today. Take from it what you will.



Screen Shot 2020-07-07 at 12.07.51.png

It may be plausible that the reason the death rate is dropping is because the denominator (# of people who test positive) have gone up in proportion to those who are positive but never went in for a test. I made zero research and I'm not claiming this is the case.... just putting it out there.

Death Rate = [# of deaths] / ([# of people who test positive (A)] + [# of people who are positive, but untested (B)])

What I'm theorizing is that the proportion of A to B has simply gone up in the recent times, given how more accessible COVID tests are nowadays.

[drone_driver24]

I like this map. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

[TheStig]

Clearly Avcanada has its finger on the pulse, this is from todays Washington Post. Mind you, I'm sure Jeff Bezos (who owns the Post) wouldn't mind this epidemic never ending.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html

A Lower Covid-19 Death Rate Is Nothing to Celebrate

By Max Nisen | Bloomberg
July 7, 2020 at 1:56 p.m. EDT

The recent spike in U.S. Covid-19 infections has mercifully been accompanied by a declining death count. There were days in the spring when the country had half the number of cases but twice as many deaths. Now, at least, the U.S. is testing more widely.
And even though death is a lagging indicator, and the numbers are likely to catch up to some degree, there is reason to hope that the lag could now be longer and slower than it was in the spring. After all, much has been learned about how to treat Covid-19 patients.
At the same time, however, a lower death count is no justification for states to reopen their economies incautiously or to suggest, as the White House appears to be doing, that Americans should just get used to living with Covid-19.
Fatalities lag behind cases because Covid-19 is a rather slow-going illness. It takes time to develop an infection severe enough to require hospitalization. It can take longer still for an acute infection to result in death. Add in that deaths aren’t always reported in a timely manner, and you see why fatalities are slow to rise and fall. Note that at the moment, the U.S. is less than a month into a sustained increase in cases.

Rising death tolls in hot-spot states such as Arizona, Florida and Texas have been balanced so far by declining figures in initially hard-hit states that now have the virus better under control.
California is an unusual case. Its case numbers are rising, yet its death count is still flat. This may be evidence that fewer of those people most likely to die from Covid-19 are now contracting the virus. This possibility is reinforced by data from several other states showing that Covid cases are skewing younger. Such an age shift means that more people arriving at the hospital have a better chance of surviving.
Once there, patients of all ages are getting better treatment. Remdesivir is helping some, and the steroid dexamethasone is preventing deaths among the severely ill. Having patients lie on their stomachs, a practice known as proning, may also improve outcomes. Covid patients do better in hospitals that are less crowded and overwhelmed, which many have been, until recently.

It must be kept in mind, however, that a lower average death count — say, 500 a day — is still tragic. And if the U.S. continues to add 50,000-plus new cases a day, the number of deaths will rise. Rampant case growth will inevitably breach measures that lead to better outcomes.
If current trends continue, the virus will inevitably spread to more older Americans and other vulnerable people in households with those who get out into the community. Few states provide housing for infected people to wait out the virus.
And as hospitals in some hot spots fill up, the crowding will lead to more deaths — from Covid-19 as well as other illnesses for which people cannot get care.
Nor is death is the only concern raised by rising infection rates. Covid-19 may also cause significant harm to those who survive. Organ damage might be lasting, and extended time in a hospital or on a ventilator can weaken people for months.

The long-term consequences of infection, still poorly understood, are not included in the data that appear on state and national dashboards. But it’s obvious that with the numbers the U.S. has seen in the past month — more than a million new infections and more than 30,000 people hospitalized — many more people, and the health system, will feel the effects for years to come.
Covid patients probably have a better chance of survival now than they did in March. They’ll almost certainly have even better odds a few months hence. But that’s no reason to allow infections to keep soaring.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Max Nisen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering biotech, pharma and health care. He previously wrote about management and corporate strategy for Quartz and Business Insider.

[redlaser]

Americans have the plague, don't let them contiminated our country and people, Trudeau must build a wall or put up a chicken fence to keep them out,

[schnitzel2k3]

There is a business term to which I cannot recall that describes the optimization of repetition. I would imagine as time ticks on, like everything, we become more efficient at treating the virus, thereby reducing mortality rates.

The biggest issues we faced in the beginning of this pandemic thanks to China failing to share information regarding severity and hoarding supplies, were shortages of PPE and ventilators. I don't believe hospitals are suffering from PPE or ventilator shortages anymore now that production lines have had a chance to play catchup.

Anybody else read those articles where they sampled sewage in Spain from March 2019 and are finding samples of Covid-19 as far back as then, nearly 9 months prior to the first documented cases in China.

[Launchpad1]

Trudeau must build a wall or put up a chicken fence to keep them out,

I say we go all out and use a piece of string!

[mixturerich]

Time to learn how to live with Covid

Time to learn to die with Covid.

Fixed it for you.

[Inverted2]

I don't think the death rate is any worse than a bad strain of the flu. If the death rate was really that bad people would be dropping everywhere and the hospitals would be overwhelmed. That is not the case.

I know of a person who's relative died in a nursing home, and they marked it down as the COVID without even testing them.

[photofly]

Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?

[Inverted2]

Well what are we supposed to do? Everything we do has some risk. Driving to work, sports, recreational activities, catching a viral infection etc. We can’t go on indefinitely as we are. There will be no economy and no jobs for many and a low quality of life.

[EPR]

Just wash your goddamned disease carrying feces covered filthy hands!

[pelmet]

Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?

Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.

[flyguy73]

I don't think the death rate is any worse than a bad strain of the flu. If the death rate was really that bad people would be dropping everywhere and the hospitals would be overwhelmed. That is not the case.

Have you not noticed the lockdown we've been under for 4 months? This has resulted in people NOT dropping like flies. At even a 1% fatality rate (it's probably higher than this), this means 370,000 Canadians would die from getting this. About 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year, and it kills about 500-1500.

I know of a person who's relative died in a nursing home, and they marked it down as the COVID without even testing them.

Do you know of someone who has died from the flu? Probably not, so it disproves your own point.

So yeah, this ain't the flu and stop thinking that it is.

[flyguy73]

Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?

Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.

This is not the flu. 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year and 500-1500 die from it. Already 100,000+ Canadians have had COVID-19 and 8500+ have died from it. COVID-19 is 10x more deadly than the flu. If flying suddenly became 10x more deadly, you better believe something would be done to fix it. Like, I don't know, grounding all planes that have a tendency to crash suddenly?

[pelmet]

Well what are we supposed to do? Everything we do has some risk. Driving to work, sports, recreational activities, catching a viral infection etc. We can’t go on indefinitely as we are. There will be no economy and no jobs for many and a low quality of life.

Folks, there is a massive scam going on. One can now see the actual attempted revolution happening in the US. Our freedom of speech to say things that ten years ago that people would have thought to be obvious and normal now result in the destruction of your career.

The revolutionaries are determined to destroy the economy in order to destroy capitalism. The large percentage of folks going along with it are what the communists like Lenin callied useful idiots, ie.....non-communists susceptible to communist propaganda.

The useful idiots these days are the emotional people who need to do good for society, to be liked. They buy into the man made global warming scam that keeps on getting more and more extreme(eliminate all motorized vehicles in ten years is the proposed green new deal. But it will not be enough either. It is always more.

That is why the left had embraced an economically destructive response to the virus. Keep the lockdown they say.

Masses of People are foolish enough to believe in, and vote for a leader who follow a 16 year old girl. Some politicians on the moderate left play on this whole thing for their own power.

But the results are becoming obvious with our financial situation the way it is a quickly getting worse. Have no doubt, there are revolutionaries right here on this thread and they are quite obvious. They are using you.

[pelmet]

Why does the death rate have to be worse than a bad strain of influenza for it to be worth taking action?

Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.

This is not the flu. 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year and 500-1500 die from it. Already 100,000+ Canadians have had COVID-19 and 8500+ have died from it. COVID-19 is 10x more deadly than the flu. If flying suddenly became 10x more deadly, you better believe something would be done to fix it. Like, I don't know, grounding all planes that have a tendency to crash suddenly?

You missed the point. The first poster basically made it clear that it would be ‘worth taking action’ for a bad strain of flu. Perhaps the new normal future that activists will be demanding.

Plane crashes were 10X worse in the past. They were not grounded en masse which would be economically destructive. Policies were slowly put in place to change it to what it is now.

We can do the same with Covid and flu-like diseases, starting with quarantining the vulnerable.

[Rockie]

The revolutionaries are determined to destroy the economy in order to destroy capitalism. The large percentage of folks going along with it are what the communists like Lenin callied useful idiots, ie.....non-communists susceptible to communist propaganda.

That's right folks, It's all a communist plot to destroy capitalism. You heard it here first from Pelmet...who read it on a whole bunch of right wing whackjob conspiracy websites so you just know it has to be true.

[altiplano]

Where Marxism failed in the 20th century was that it grasped on to class, in the new post modern Marxist drive they grasp on to identity and intersectionality.

The "useful idiots" as you say eat it up.

Make no mistake that China and Russia are having a good laugh watching the unraveling of the West... they stoke a little here, inject some dissent there, and sit back and eat our lunch.

People from the most affluent, privileged society in all of human history don't think they have it good enough and are ready to burn it down... They wave Soviet flags and scream for socialism... Anyone check how LGBT are doing in Russia there days? How do minorities do in China? How are the underprivileged making out in Venezuela? Or Cuba? unbelievable...

[flyguy73]

Why does no one say we should put tens of millions out of work for a bad strain of flu in a year where the vaccine turns out to be ineffective, that would kill the same number of people.

This is not the flu. 40,000 Canadians get the flu every year and 500-1500 die from it. Already 100,000+ Canadians have had COVID-19 and 8500+ have died from it. COVID-19 is 10x more deadly than the flu. If flying suddenly became 10x more deadly, you better believe something would be done to fix it. Like, I don't know, grounding all planes that have a tendency to crash suddenly?

You missed the point. The first poster basically made it clear that it would be ‘worth taking action’ for a bad strain of flu. Perhaps the new normal future that activists will be demanding.

Plane crashes were 10X worse in the past. They were not grounded en masse which would be economically destructive. Policies were slowly put in place to change it to what it is now.

We can do the same with Covid and flu-like diseases, starting with quarantining the vulnerable.

Sorry, but clearly you missed the point. Are you not aware of the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed more people than WWI? Are you saying it should have been "business as usual" at that time? Obviously you understand nothing about medicine and you've clearly never had even a mild case of influenza.

And you missed my point as well. If plane crashes increased by a factor of ten overnight, then the industry would be shut down the next day and action taken to address it. In fact, I seem to recall Boeing 737 Max jets have been grounded for well over a year now because of 2 accidents that killed hundreds of people. This has resulted in thousands of people at Boeing and related industries losing their jobs. But I guess you think we should have continued to fly them without addressing the underlying issues and letting more planes crash? After all, it's just a left-wing conspiracy theory right?

I find it amusing that the same people protesting to lift lockdowns are the same ones protesting being forced to wear a mask. They are the very ones prolonging this pandemic and most affecting the economy by propagating this disease. Wear the mask, physical distance and get this over as soon as possible.