Is this The End of the Pilot Career

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KiloDelta
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Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by KiloDelta »

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 05.article

https://fortune.com/2020/08/26/space-x- ... airplanes/

https://skift.com/2020/08/28/reliable-r ... this-week/

There is talk of one pilot in the cockpit and removing the role of the co-pilot or the first officer altogether.
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PilotDAR
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by PilotDAR »

Reliable Robotics aims for certification of a pilotless cargo-carrying Caravan under FAA Part 23 airworthiness standards,
There's a very clear path, without changing any laws
They better do more research. Part 23 would require a massive rewrite to remove the requirement for a pilot in the airplane. There are more than a hundred references to "Pilot" and aside from "Automatic pilot", they'd all have to be changed to enable compliance to be found for certification. When a standard is changed, it must be changed to something else, which has been very well researched and vetted. And this, in the midst of the FAA reviewing MCAS to try to assure it works properly, and convince the public that they did better this time!

I'm not worried about civil pilot's day jobs being taken by automation any time soon. I'm the consumer. I seek out cashiers, rather than automated pay stations, so I will sure seek out airplanes being flown by pilots for my transportation!
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socsbrian
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by socsbrian »

Interesting... So a pilot with 250hours fresh out of flight school can be captain right away...?
How do new pilots gain experience when the first officer position is not required to operate an aircraft?
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trey kule
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by trey kule »

As humans, and pilots, we are very attached to our emotions and perspectives.

But there are people who look at causes. At statistics.
As emerging technology improves, there will maybe be a point in time when automation will prove to make fewer errors then pilots do.
At that point, automation will become the norm.

Single pilot, I believe, is inevitable. The first step might be two pilots on long haul instead of three. Or a single pilot and a ground based second pilot.

The majority of accidents , even today, attribute about 80% to pilot error. The bar is really not set that high.

The FO on a heavy, now, should not be considered a training or experience position, as far as flying the aircraft. That it is the case though, should be concerning to anyone who wants two qualified pilots in the cockpit who are not doing training .
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Meatservo
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by Meatservo »

Wow. They built a giant radio-controlled plane. Big deal. The video is more ground-breaking than the actual aircraft.
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mixturerich
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by mixturerich »

Inevitable but still a very long ways off. We have to fully automate cargo trucks and container ships first as proof of concept before we move on to airplanes. The service life of a new airliner is around 40 years or whatever, so maybe the next generation of airliners after that will have 1 pilot. But then you still need another monitoring pilot somewhere in the mix in case the 1 becomes incapacitated. If anything we would be “drone” pilots first l, operating the aircraft from ground, even this would save tons of money obviously. Point being, there will of course be a very long and gradual transition period.

Isn’t there already a huge separate thread on this where all of this has been beaten to death?
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challenger_nami
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by challenger_nami »

My job as a pilot won’t be affected. But I sure will advise my grand kids (when they are born and grow up) that they should not aim at becoming pilots.
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Last edited by challenger_nami on Fri Sep 25, 2020 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
planebored
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by planebored »

mixturerich wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:38 pm Inevitable but still a very long ways off. We have to fully automate cargo trucks and container ships first as proof of concept before we move on to airplanes. The service life of a new airliner is around 40 years or whatever, so maybe the next generation of airliners after that will have 1 pilot. But then you still need another monitoring pilot somewhere in the mix in case the 1 becomes incapacitated. If anything we would be “drone” pilots first l, operating the aircraft from ground, even this would save tons of money obviously. Point being, there will of course be a very long and gradual transition period.

Isn’t there already a huge separate thread on this where all of this has been beaten to death?
These are my thoughts as well.
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challenger_nami
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by challenger_nami »

Keep in mind that even if this technology was fully developed and was approved by Transport Canada TOMORROW MORNING... We would have a lot of current generation airplanes that will be grandfathered and will need the pilot.

Also keep in mind that DC3 which is 1930-1940’s technology is still flying in Canada.
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gtappl
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by gtappl »

Honestly I'm pretty clueless about the industry but a big thing few people realize is having that second person there is part of the whole two heads are better than one approach.

Want to leave and you feel it might be unsafe? It's a lot easier to look over to the guy next to you and see if how he feels. Especially if you have to push back against management.
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worstpilotincanada
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by worstpilotincanada »

I might be mistaken, but after the Germanwings crash is not mandatory to have two people in the cockpit at all times; to prevent pilot suicide etc. I was told by a flight attendant that they must stand in the cockpit when one pilot leaves to go to the bathroom; as part of policy. I am not a commercial pilot yet myself so I am not 100% on this. If aircraft move to a single pilot model how will they accomodate for this rule?
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fish4life
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by fish4life »

worstpilotincanada wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 4:30 pm I might be mistaken, but after the Germanwings crash is not mandatory to have two people in the cockpit at all times; to prevent pilot suicide etc. I was told by a flight attendant that they must stand in the cockpit when one pilot leaves to go to the bathroom; as part of policy. I am not a commercial pilot yet myself so I am not 100% on this. If aircraft move to a single pilot model how will they accomodate for this rule?
It was a rule for a few months but I believe most airlines went back to the old way.
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by rookiepilot »

PilotDAR wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:40 pm
I'm the consumer. I seek out cashiers, rather than automated pay stations, so I will sure seek out airplanes being flown by pilots for my transportation!
Well, I hate to bust your bubble on that, Dar, but they don't care about you, or any of the consumers that care about a higher standard of service, or safety, in any industry.

Do you recall shoppers drug mart got some negative media attention for taking All cashiers out of a few stores. One employee left, to point people to self serve stations. They got flack, they back off. For a little while. Then they push again. Reduce people. Reduce people.

They will sell you, program you, as some of you here sell. "Everyone wants lower prices and nothing else" -- so forget any substance to service.

They push, and they push. Less FA's. Check in yourself, tag your own bag, weigh your own bag, AND load it correctly on the belt yourself. Anything goes wrong, it's your fault. Here's a 1800 number that you can't reach a human being.

Combine that with the trend towards monopolies, and what are you supposed to do?

Small businesses that can't afford to invest in the automation, become ground to dust, because they've programmed most people, their few dollars saved is worth more than their time.

My time is valuable. It ticks me off. I despise the modern self serve economy. I'll pay more. But that's not an option, except at the top top top level, which I'm not.

Canada is just like dozens of countries I've visited with less sterling reputations. Run by a small handful of families. THEY, not you consumer, decide what you get, and they are a lot cosier with the regulators than you are.

The water is boiled very slowly, and you don't even notice....

The answer: Tax. Tax every pay station, every automated baggage belt, exactly like the employee it displaced. Ongoing, permanently,

They want to remove safety and service, make them pay.

But that ain't gonna happen.

Unless you are naive enough to think we live in a democracy that gives a rip about you and me.

Every one of you are dinosaurs, just as I am in my world.

It's a certainty, no pilots. Only a matter of time.
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Mick G
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by Mick G »

Self driving cars and self flying planes are not too far away. Personally, it doesn't scare me too much, its just going to be hard to get used to. Once self driving cars are mainstream (~10 years), most people will stop owning a car and just call one when needed. Pilots days are certainly numbered, I would suspect young pilots will see this before their careers are over.....its coming whether you like it or don't. In 30 years, thiose of us that are still alive will talk about the old days when we used to drive our own vehicles and fly our own planes......
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by PilotDAR »

self flying planes are not too far away
Sure, they're here now. But, there are no present standards to certify them for passenger carrying use. Sure, they'll develop standards, but it won't be fast. And MCAS has done nothing to build confidence in the FAA certifying automated systems. Pilots are safe for a while - as long as they can consistently fly better than computers can!
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by linecrew »

They have unmanned Bell 407s in development testing for the military now. How long til these start fighting forest fires with bambi buckets?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_ ... Fire_Scout


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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by HavaJava »

PilotDAR wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:41 pm
self flying planes are not too far away
Sure, they're here now. But, there are no present standards to certify them for passenger carrying use. Sure, they'll develop standards, but it won't be fast. And MCAS has done nothing to build confidence in the FAA certifying automated systems. Pilots are safe for a while - as long as they can consistently fly better than computers can!
I think MCAS will be an impetus to move more quickly towards pilotless aircraft. We are now expecting engineers to make planes that either never fail or have very specific procedures in place for pilots to follow (procedures that could easily be programmed into automation). Thinking and/or going back to basics of flying is apparently not a desirable quality for pilots any more. If pilots can’t adequately solve relatively simple problems when system/computers fail then what is the point in having pilots at all.

Before you jump all over me, I know very well the details of the MCAS and, while a confusing situation, they were completely manageable situations that should never have led to crashes. If you disagree with this that’s fine, but I won’t waste my breath debating with you.
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Shinyjetsyndrome
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by Shinyjetsyndrome »

Companies exist to make profits and if airlines can save a large amount of cash by reducing or eliminating the pilot headcount due to advancements in technology, they’ll embrace it in a heartbeat. In 10-15 years, automated vehicles, trucks, hyper loop, etc. will already be the norm and if people are used to that and comfortable with it, it won’t be a hard sell to the consumer. It’ll be cheaper tickets and an equal or better safety level. My college human factors class spent a good amount of time drilling into our minds that human error accounts for roughly 80% of recent accidents. Like others said, it will be gradual, but it will certainly happen much faster than a lot of people think. Single pilot airliners are probably around the corner. Maybe they’ll have a backup guy on the ground who’s responsible for multiple flights, kind of like a dispatcher. As someone who just began this career in aviation, I know I likely won’t retire as a pilot.

The northern specialty flying or operations like in Papua where split second life vs death decisions are constantly being made will likely stay manned for a lot longer, but technology is improving exponentially and it won’t be long till that’s automated too. It is what it is. Automation has always created new careers that never existed before, so who knows how the pilot career will evolve. It’s scary and sad, but also kind of exciting.
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by gtappl »

Mick G wrote: Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:42 pm Self driving cars and self flying planes are not too far away. Personally, it doesn't scare me too much, its just going to be hard to get used to. Once self driving cars are mainstream (~10 years), most people will stop owning a car and just call one when needed. Pilots days are certainly numbered, I would suspect young pilots will see this before their careers are over.....its coming whether you like it or don't. In 30 years, thiose of us that are still alive will talk about the old days when we used to drive our own vehicles and fly our own planes......
Has anyone here ever ridden the subway in Canada? Or a better example, used car2go?

Both great services but people had memberships tied to their rental and still left garbage and all sorts of terrible things in the car. Canadians are not a communal people.
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PilotDAR
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Re: Is this The End of the Pilot Career

Post by PilotDAR »

I know very well the details of the MCAS and, while a confusing situation, they were completely manageable situations that should never have led to crashes.
Me too, entirely agree!

Though the technology exists, and works, to be certified for commercial service, particularly with passengers, new standards will have to be developed and enacted internationally. he development of the aircraft is one thing, the development of the certification standards is entirely another. My reference to MCAS is that under the present standards, they could not get the certification right. We're a long way away from certification to standards which do not exist yet! Particularly in the shadow of the MCAS certification fail! Regulators and foreign authorities will be looking extra hard at what is presented!

It'll happen, but I think today's pilots are safe for a while!
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