Will the industry ever be fully back?

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gtappl
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Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by gtappl »

I noticed a lot of things were never the same after 2008, even in places that more than recovered. (Job perks slashed never to return, 2 people doing 3 peoples job 12 years later etc)


Is the airline industry ever going to be back to how it was in 2019? Or even 2015? I've had my ppl for a few years and was wondering do I quit my day job to chase my cpl and a chance at working at one of the big guys! Then Corona hit and I'm even more unsure what's best to do.

From what I know nobody new will get a job until all the people laid off are rehired AND demand goes up enough to justify hiring more people. In my mind that could be close to a decade?
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McKinley
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by McKinley »

Just my opinion but I don’t think aviation really ever recovered from 9/11. By recovery, I mean a return to original wage and working conditions prior to the crisis.

Aviation just came out of an unprecedented hiring spree.. contracts were signed during this period that denuded wage and working conditions further amidst a so- called hiring “ boom.”

I agree with your opinion that things haven’t really bounced back ...
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digits_
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by digits_ »

I think you're right, especially for the airline side of things. Technology has evolved so much that the skills, knowledge and intelligence required to safely operate an airliner has been significantly reduced. This opened up the job to a much wider pool of applicants that can be succesfully trained. While it is sad to see it happening, I do think the days of the 300k or even 200k/year pilot wage will be behind us soon.

At this point, I have the impression the money is there to compensate for the lifestyle, not to attract talent.
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Hangry
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by Hangry »

digits_ wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:06 pm I think you're right, especially for the airline side of things. Technology has evolved so much that the skills, knowledge and intelligence required to safely operate an airliner has been significantly reduced. This opened up the job to a much wider pool of applicants that can be succesfully trained. While it is sad to see it happening, I do think the days of the 300k or even 200k/year pilot wage will be behind us soon.

At this point, I have the impression the money is there to compensate for the lifestyle, not to attract talent.
I love it when ppl’s wax poetic about airline ops.
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tbaylx
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by tbaylx »

digits_ wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:06 pm I think you're right, especially for the airline side of things. Technology has evolved so much that the skills, knowledge and intelligence required to safely operate an airliner has been significantly reduced. This opened up the job to a much wider pool of applicants that can be succesfully trained. While it is sad to see it happening, I do think the days of the 300k or even 200k/year pilot wage will be behind us soon.

At this point, I have the impression the money is there to compensate for the lifestyle, not to attract talent.
Technology is only as good as the pilots who manage it. While automation has increased, a modern pilot needs a far bigger skill set and knowledge that someone operating a three or 4 crew jet 30+ years ago did.

Sure a hand flown NDB to minimums isn't high on the list of skills most pilots excel at now, however managing all that information, data as well as the cabin crew and passengers (especially during covid) demands another level of skills that seat of the pants pilots supported by engineers and navigators never had, nor did they need. There was a time 250 hours and a high school diploma would get you into an airliner.

Now its decades of experience and often post secondary education as well as people skills that never used to be a job requirement.

It's bad enough when the media perpetuate the airplanes fly themselves crap, but when pilots do it to themselves its worse. They're not special, but airline pilots are highly skilled, and trained professionals.
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tbaylx
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by tbaylx »

McKinley wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:05 pm Just my opinion but I don’t think aviation really ever recovered from 9/11. By recovery, I mean a return to original wage and working conditions prior to the crisis.

Aviation just came out of an unprecedented hiring spree.. contracts were signed during this period that denuded wage and working conditions further amidst a so- called hiring “ boom.”

I agree with your opinion that things haven’t really bounced back ...
Only 12 months ago airlines were giving pilots 20% raises mid contract because they wanted to retain talent. It'll get back there, if anything COVID has made the pilot shortage worse. Albeit delayed another 3 to 5 years
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780Pilot
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by 780Pilot »

tbaylx wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:49 pm
McKinley wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:05 pm Just my opinion but I don’t think aviation really ever recovered from 9/11. By recovery, I mean a return to original wage and working conditions prior to the crisis.

Aviation just came out of an unprecedented hiring spree.. contracts were signed during this period that denuded wage and working conditions further amidst a so- called hiring “ boom.”

I agree with your opinion that things haven’t really bounced back ...
Only 12 months ago airlines were giving pilots 20% raises mid contract because they wanted to retain talent. It'll get back there, if anything COVID has made the pilot shortage worse. Albeit delayed another 3 to 5 years
I agree when this is all done there will be another shortage. The real question is where will the bottleneck be? Regionals? Mainline? Honestly its hard to say.
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Inverted2
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by Inverted2 »

It’ll take a while before everyone furloughed even gets back to work before a shortage but this will definitely cause many to leave the industry for other careers/retire early as well as discourage many from starting their flight training. I’d agree on 3-5 years unless they unleash more viruses on us. :?
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by goingnowherefast »

Inverted2 wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:31 pm ...this will definitely cause many to leave the industry for other careers/retire early as well as discourage many from starting their flight training. I’d agree on 3-5 years unless they unleash more viruses on us. :?
I agree that the jobs will return. However it has yet to be seen if they are the same jobs we had or even want. In 5 years, a lot of contracts will be up for negotiation. I'm betting pay and working conditions will be severely suppressed as compared to 2019. I hope I'm wrong.
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digits_
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by digits_ »

Inverted2 wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:31 pm It’ll take a while before everyone furloughed even gets back to work before a shortage but this will definitely cause many to leave the industry for other careers/retire early as well as discourage many from starting their flight training. I’d agree on 3-5 years unless they unleash more viruses on us. :?
I doubt it will significantly discourage people from starting flight training. "Now's the time to start, so you'll be ready for the next hiring spree!"
Even during the financial crisis, people were still training to be pilots. Even if some are discourage, there will still be ample supply to fill whatever jobs might pop up in the next few years.

On the bright side, once this virus gets dealt with, another virus won't have the same effect.
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As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
gtappl
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by gtappl »

Hangry wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:28 pm
digits_ wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:06 pm I think you're right, especially for the airline side of things. Technology has evolved so much that the skills, knowledge and intelligence required to safely operate an airliner has been significantly reduced. This opened up the job to a much wider pool of applicants that can be succesfully trained. While it is sad to see it happening, I do think the days of the 300k or even 200k/year pilot wage will be behind us soon.

At this point, I have the impression the money is there to compensate for the lifestyle, not to attract talent.
I love it when ppl’s wax poetic about airline ops.
Can you give the class some insight on what's wrong with his take? Or will you stay on your path of useless trolling.
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Zaibatsu
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by Zaibatsu »

gtappl wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:52 pm
Hangry wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:28 pm
digits_ wrote: Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:06 pm I think you're right, especially for the airline side of things. Technology has evolved so much that the skills, knowledge and intelligence required to safely operate an airliner has been significantly reduced. This opened up the job to a much wider pool of applicants that can be succesfully trained. While it is sad to see it happening, I do think the days of the 300k or even 200k/year pilot wage will be behind us soon.

At this point, I have the impression the money is there to compensate for the lifestyle, not to attract talent.
I love it when ppl’s wax poetic about airline ops.
Can you give the class some insight on what's wrong with his take? Or will you stay on your path of useless trolling.
What’s funny is the ppl is right. So many airline guys are still drinking the coolaid that sitting on reserve for 50k on the other side of the country in a soul crushing crash pad is going to translate to pay dirt some day. Those wages are for the survivors. Most of it will go to alimony.
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Gino Under
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Re: Will the industry ever be fully back?

Post by Gino Under »

The German government gave $10B to Lufthansa in May to help sustain it through this pandemic. Lufthansa, now 4 months on, are saying that government assistance has not had the hoped for affect. What would government financial assistance mean for Canada's airlines? Does this mean government assistance at this point in time will be too little too late? What about that return to normal we all hope for? According to this article in Flight...

For airlines, a focus on 'getting back to 2019 ' ignores reality
By Lewis Harper 23 September 2020

There are few more commonly asked questions in the airline industry today than “when will we be back to 2019 levels of demand and revenue?”
As with many coronavirus crisis-related discussions – involving airlines or otherwise – it is tempting to focus on getting back to how things were, even at the cost of considering that some changes might be for the better.
For airlines, estimates of when that return to “normality” will be achieved average around the 2024 mark.
The simplicity of this answer often encourages a rather simplistic take on the industry’s predicament.
“Get through this tricky patch, then it’s back to a growth trajectory from next year onwards.”
But the concept of a return to 2019 levels is really a rather moot one for most operators.
That the industry will be smaller for years to come is already baked into proceedings, as chunks of fleets are retired and tens of thousands of employees let go.
The next few years are not about a journey back to the pre-Covid world; they are about the industry finding a new footing, then establishing a sustainable growth path in a post-pandemic environment.
“Anybody who believes that this is just a temporary crisis and can be resolved through temporary measures is misguided,” said departing IAG chief executive Willie Walsh in early August, while noting that securing enough liquidity is only one part of a viable survival strategy.
There are structural changes under way, which will affect all airlines – and some more than others.
Walsh was perhaps most conscious of a fundamental shift in corporate markets, causing a decline in business travel – an area critical to network carriers with their premium seating-heavy widebody jets.
Other markets – notably the long-haul leisure sector – are also facing a tougher recovery path, raising the prospect that the current generation of passengers becomes more accustomed to shorter-haul trips as different traveler habits are formed.
At the same time, airlines are facing the next few years much more heavily indebted than they could have ever imagined. For that reason, and others, only the most reckless operators are likely to emerge from this crisis without a new-found focus on building liquidity.
For many airlines, a return of governments having a bigger say over strategy is also an inevitable – and arguably regressive – step following various state bailouts across the sector.
All the while, sustainability is starting to become baked into every strategic decision for some carriers – with several bailouts in Europe contingent on environmental targets being met.
Another structural change is the simple fact that airlines are adjusting to being smaller operations.
That said, accelerated industry consolidation is likely to become a consequence of current woes at some point.
A shift in power might also be under way, with those airlines fortunate enough to have a large domestic market to serve likely to emerge from the crisis in a much stronger position than those with a heavy reliance on open international borders.
And eventually, new operators unencumbered by pre-Covid employee contracts, fleet burdens and high debt might spy an unusually attractive opportunity to enter the market.
Customers’ expectations are also likely to change, as they demand more health measures – even once the virus is under control.
Ultimately, these factors and more mean that when the industry does return to those heady days of 2019 demand and revenue, success is likely to be measured on different terms than those imagined just months ago.
And, although the coronavirus crisis has been horrific for the industry, it is important to note that structural changes are not always for the worse.
Rather than “when will we back to 2019 levels?”, a more meaningful question is therefore: “What will the industry look like when we get there?”

So, will the industry ever be fully back? Probably not for some time to come.

Gino Under :partyman:
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