"COVID pricing" for aircraft sales?

[laminar]

Is it just me, or does the current market for aircraft seem ridiculously overinflated? Is this an effect of COVID and people wanting to do more socially distanced activities (like flying?)

Last spring I was looking as a cash in hand buyer and made the decision to do some home renos instead, and bump an aircraft purchase for a year to see how things go . Plenty of inactive ramp ornaments or aircraft with clapped out engines out there. I have seen some hilarious ads mentioning aircraft hangared since the 80s yet one aircraft has a pile of Google images of it sitting in the weeds throughout the decades including pics of it sitting outside with no windscreen. All of these aircraft are asking premium dollars. Ones that seem decent mechanically are listed for such high prices that I continue seeing their ads 2 years after they were originally listed.

I value many of the opinions on this board. Would it be more beneficial to wait 1-2 more years? I already own a hangar (purchased last spring) so the issue of storage is taken care of.

Maybe I'm out to lunch?

[photofly]

No, there will be no downward movement in airplane prices. There is huge demand at the bottom of the ladder, and maintenance, overhaul and upgrade costs increase year-on-year. meaning that any airplane in decent condition is only for sale at top dollar. Everything else follows. The market for small airplanes is very illiquid, and most owners who could be persuaded to sell are happy instead to sit on their (non-flying) planes, so there's no downward pressure on prices at all.

[montado]

I don't think its that these aircraft are worth more, its just that your dollars are worth less. I don't see this improving any time soon, it usually only gets worse. 2x4x8 lumber was up at 7 bucks a piece this summer. Do you think we will ever see 3 dollar 2x4's like they were a year ago? Probably never. Things can only go up from here!

[digits_]

I've noticed the same thing. Some of those planes actually sell within a few months, so I guess they were priced right. But if your plane doesn't sell after 2 years, maybe it is time to review your price, assuming you actually want to sell.

Covid seems to have increased asking prices. I did not expect that at all.

[goldeneagle]

I don't think its that these aircraft are worth more, its just that your dollars are worth less. I don't see this improving any time soon, it usually only gets worse. 2x4x8 lumber was up at 7 bucks a piece this summer. Do you think we will ever see 3 dollar 2x4's like they were a year ago? Probably never. Things can only go up from here!

This reminds me of a story we often relate around here. Shortly after I met the lady who is now my wife, bought a camper van, that was back in 2007. That summer we were getting ready to go on a trip with it, and filling up with gas on Vancouver Island, pump price was 149.9. We joked about it, better fill it right up, the way gas prices are going, we will never see dollar fifty gas again.

Today it's 2020, soon to be 2021, and that prophesy was correct, we have never seen dollar fifty gas since. I've bought it as low as 89.9 earlier this year, and over the time since we joked about that, it's been up and down all over the place, but, 149.9 was indeed the highest price we have paid over all those years. So it's true, never did see dollar fifty gas again, just didn't pan out like we expected. If you had told me then, that 13 years down the road we would be filling up for under a buck a liter, would have said you are delusional.

FWIW, regarding your 2x4, just checked. Home Depot picked up at the local store, 2x4x8 is 4.90 today. Lumber is a commodity, wouldn't surprise me at all to see a 3 dollar 2x4 again, before we see a 7 dollar 2x4. ofc, this does depend a lot on where where and what you buy. I'm checking the Home Depot website here, probably one of the most expensive places to buy lumber. It does make a big difference what kind of sticks you are buying too. I can find your 7 dollar stick if I specify cedar, even more spendy if I want it treated.

[photofly]

I've bought it as low as 89.9 earlier this year,

63.something in March.

[all_ramped_up]

I've bought it as low as 89.9 earlier this year,

63.something in March.

Yeah, had it in that range here in Scotia too then.

Back up to 102.3 here now though.

[whistlerboy02]

I was told the correct price for the CAD should be 80 cents US, but we are well below that currently.
I agree aircraft prices are nuts currently, I sold mine last spring for almost full asking price.
I am waiting till reality sets in, and will purchase in a year or two. I have a specific type I want to purchase however they are in short supply (30 currently for sale). Once supply increases I hope prices will drop.
I could however be completely wrong, but the dollar is low and the market is hot so I'll wait.

[fish4life]

Covid has raised the price of almost everything recreational.
Anything from seadoo’s to boats to snowmobiles are 20-30% higher than I’ve ever seen. There was points this summer you couldn’t find a new camper or boat on a lot, this is all being driven but our inflation adjusted negative interest rates so if that turns around the GA market is going to come down in price as well.

[Heliian]

Covid has raised the price of almost everything recreational.
Anything from seadoo’s to boats to snowmobiles are 20-30% higher than I’ve ever seen. There was points this summer you couldn’t find a new camper or boat on a lot, this is all being driven but our inflation adjusted negative interest rates so if that turns around the GA market is going to come down in price as well.

+1 It's a funny consequence I didn't foresee, I know some powersports places that were just making it before and now have had their best year. The prices will surely drop again once people get traveling.

[Big Pistons Forever]

All airplanes are expensive now as almost everyone fits into 2 categories

1) The ones that have had a lot of work done to them and are nice hence a high asking price, or

2) The ones that need a lot of work that are cheaper but will cost huge dollars to bring up to a reasonable condition

Most airplanes for sale are in the 2nd group. The high cost of parts and maintenance has caused many owners to scrimp on repairs but eventually the chickens come home to roost. Since you will never get back what you paid for major maintenance or upgrades buying off the top of the market is IMO the best route. Pay now or pay (more) later, but you will pay.

A couple of things are driving the market. One is that the price of any common airplane is heavily influenced by US prices because the market is so much bigger there. With the low Canadian dollar this has inflated the price of Canadian airplanes. Also most of the majority of light aircraft are 1970's vintage because of very high production volumes in the hey day of GA. in 1979 Cessna made over 17,000 airplanes in 2019 they made less than 400 so they are comparatively few newer used airplanes out there and so they hold a large price premium.

All of those 1970's planes are at least 40 years old and many suffer from aging aircraft problems especially airframe corrosion. Many are so far gone that they probably will never fly again so the available stock of "good" airplanes is getting smaller as demand rises.

[I WAS Birddog]

Is it just me, or does the current market for aircraft seem ridiculously overinflated? Is this an effect of COVID and people wanting to do more socially distanced activities (like flying?)

Last spring I was looking as a cash in hand buyer and made the decision to do some home renos instead, and bump an aircraft purchase for a year to see how things go . Plenty of inactive ramp ornaments or aircraft with clapped out engines out there. I have seen some hilarious ads mentioning aircraft hangared since the 80s yet one aircraft has a pile of Google images of it sitting in the weeds throughout the decades including pics of it sitting outside with no windscreen. All of these aircraft are asking premium dollars. Ones that seem decent mechanically are listed for such high prices that I continue seeing their ads 2 years after they were originally listed.

I value many of the opinions on this board. Would it be more beneficial to wait 1-2 more years? I already own a hangar (purchased last spring) so the issue of storage is taken care of.

Maybe I'm out to lunch?

You're not out to lunch. Have you seen the price of boats lately? A 1991 40' floating bucket of garbage with clapped out engines is selling right now for 83K on BoatTrader.com whereas a year ago...the same boat by the same owner was asking 22K. And guess what...some poor ignorant sap bought it.
I literally missed the "boat". Bitcoin and clapped out boat purchases in 2019.

Good luck

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

This reminds me of a story we often relate around here. Shortly after I met the lady who is now my wife, bought a camper van, that was back in 2007. That summer we were getting ready to go on a trip with it, and filling up with gas on Vancouver Island, pump price was 149.9. We joked about it, better fill it right up, the way gas prices are going, we will never see dollar fifty gas again.

Today it's 2020, soon to be 2021, and that prophesy was correct, we have never seen dollar fifty gas since. I've bought it as low as 89.9 earlier this year, and over the time since we joked about that, it's been up and down all over the place, but, 149.9 was indeed the highest price we have paid over all those years. So it's true, never did see dollar fifty gas again, just didn't pan out like we expected. If you had told me then, that 13 years down the road we would be filling up for under a buck a liter, would have said you are delusional.

Got you beat there. The highest I ever paid for mogas was 154.9 in Chapleau three years ago. I think the lowest I paid during the pandemic was 59.9. Got in a lot of good driving on nice empty roads in April.

[laminar]

Thanks for the replies. I'm going to wait until spring as there is some work I want to do to the hangar before I put an aircraft in there. At that point I'll see if things have begun to cool off or if I just need to suck it up.

I definitely echo the same thoughts as what's mentioned in here about looking at the better examples of type (both in maintenance and upgrades and of course the higher initial purchase price that goes with it). It's the route I will aim for. Until then, I'll have to stick with rentals.

Cheers everyone