Aviation and the 2021 Election

[AnonPilot]

Looks like a lot of people in the GTA are enjoying their “free” money and wanna keep that unrealistic gravy train going …

The interesting thing to watch will be interest rates, the bank of Canada has no choice but to raise them, and with the stupid prices people are paying for homes .. we will see defaults or tough choices.

They SHOULD raise interest rates for no other reason than to rein in housing prices.

[fruz]

Also, if you voted PPC you voted for Justin because of the vote splitting.

No, if you voted PPC, you voted for PPC. One of the big threats for democracy is a polarized 2 party system like you have in the US. It breeds a split society. Smaller parties help to prevent that. And it needs to be respected.

Members of major parties often try to claim the votes of those smaller parties. But guess what. People who voted for the smaller parties didn't vote for you, so acknowledge that piece of information, and use it. Don't ignore it, or soon you'll be the smaller party.

We have more parties in our political system than we've ever had in our confederation. Our society is more divisive than it's ever been also. I understand the idea of voting for who you want rather than strategically. However, if the parties respected inclusiveness and a broader range of ideas, fewer parties would be needed to water down results.

Attributing split societies to a two party system suggests that this system is limited to black and white ideologies. That isn't entirely correct and can be easily overcome.

[montado]

Trudeau is the PC leader killer. O’toole was so underwhelming I’m surprised he had as many votes as he did. Personally I think the conservatives need a new leader, might not happen. I don’t see o’toole as the guy to pull off a win for the conservatives in a few years.

Actually when I think more about it, maybe there’s just no place for conservatives in Canada anymore. The left as a whole have a commanding majority. Socialism will be the way for Canada.

[dhc#]

Canada is going to end up like Greece a few years ago.

[digits_]

Attributing split societies to a two party system suggests that this system is limited to black and white ideologies. That isn't entirely correct and can be easily overcome.

They might not be black and white ideologies, but if you have only 2 parties, one will suggest of fix issue X by doing A, and the other will do anything but A, and the rhetoric in the media will be about A vs non A, instead of dealing with X, while a lot of people who previously didn't care *how* the issue got solved, are now discussing A or non A as a solution.

What are the easy solutions to overcome this?

[CpnCrunch]

Trudeau is the PC leader killer. O’toole was so underwhelming I’m surprised he had as many votes as he did. Personally I think the conservatives need a new leader, might not happen. I don’t see o’toole as the guy to pull off a win for the conservatives in a few years.

Actually when I think more about it, maybe there’s just no place for conservatives in Canada anymore. The left as a whole have a commanding majority. Socialism will be the way for Canada.

Personally I quite like underwhelming in a leader. And I thought O'Toole was fine up until that debate about the assault rifle ban. After that my impression that he was trustworthy was turned on its head.

Really, I just want a leader I can trust who isn't going to screw up the country. Is that too much to ask? If you vote for my dog I'm sure he can manage that, as long as you don't leave any food sitting on low tables.

[Inverted2]

Trudeau is the PC leader killer. O’toole was so underwhelming I’m surprised he had as many votes as he did. Personally I think the conservatives need a new leader, might not happen. I don’t see o’toole as the guy to pull off a win for the conservatives in a few years.

Actually when I think more about it, maybe there’s just no place for conservatives in Canada anymore. The left as a whole have a commanding majority. Socialism will be the way for Canada.

Personally I quite like underwhelming in a leader. And I thought O'Toole was fine up until that debate about the assault rifle ban. After that my impression that he was trustworthy was turned on its head.

Really, I just want a leader I can trust who isn't going to screw up the country. Is that too much to ask? If you vote for my dog I'm sure he can manage that, as long as you don't leave any food sitting on low tables.

Assault rifles have been banned since 1977 in Canada. They are now calling anything semi-auto an "assault rifle". Trudope is trying to ban pretty much anything now besides shotguns, bolt actions and .22s - basically banning something on its appearance.

I do hope interest rates go up soon and/or hyperinflation kicks in. Either way its got to happen eventually, and a lot of people are going to be in a big mess.

[CpnCrunch]

Assault rifles have been banned since 1977 in Canada. They are now calling anything semi-auto an "assault rifle". Trudope is trying to ban pretty much anything now besides shotguns, bolt actions and .22s - basically banning something on its appearance.

Haven't you heard? O'Toole now wants to maintain the ban on "assault like" weapons. That's the problem...

He said in the debate he wasn't going to repeal the assault weapons ban, but he refused to answer questions asking if he was talking about the 1977 assault weapons ban, or the more recent ban on "assault like" weapons. After the debate a spokesperson for his party clarified that he was indeed talking about the 1977 ban (which nobody has talked about repealing), and that he was indeed going to still repeal the liberal ban on assault like weapons (even though in the debate he said he wasn't).

BUT WAIT! THERE'S MORE!

After that he then completely changed his mind and said he was NOT going to repeat the recent ban on "assault like" weapons, even though his own platform had said he would.

That's the problem. Most people really don't give much of a shit about this issue. For me, it makes sense to take a closer look at the legislation and make evidence based decisions. I would have supported O'Toole if his platform had said that.

[goldeneagle]

They SHOULD raise interest rates for no other reason than to rein in housing prices.

Raising interest rates will affect the sticker price on houses. Unless you are a cash buyer, wont affect what you pay for the house. For the most part, housing prices are determined by the ability to service the mortgage. If the sticker price goes down, and interest rates go up, payment doesn't change.

[‘Bob’]

My guess is that you haven’t had a mortgage in a long time and are unfamiliar with variable interest rates, mortgage renewals, or what happened in the USA 13 years ago where people wound up owing more on their outstanding mortgages than what their houses were worth.

Yes. New buyers are unaffected because it’s part of a whole package of affordability. You either pay low interest and a high price or vice versa.

[co-joe]

One thing's for sure, our industry is going to be on its own for the next while. You can count on no help from Ottawa, no help from the media, continued travel restrictions, and likely the government forced termination of some of our friends/ coworkers on November 1st.

[loudmouth]

Not much to look forward to when the Canadian Government continues to offer license waivers to foreign pilots, while we have thousands sitting on the street.

[AnonPilot]

My guess is that you haven’t had a mortgage in a long time and are unfamiliar with variable interest rates, mortgage renewals, or what happened in the USA 13 years ago where people wound up owing more on their outstanding mortgages than what their houses were worth.

Yes. New buyers are unaffected because it’s part of a whole package of affordability. You either pay low interest and a high price or vice versa.

I have a mortgage. I purchased a condo that I could easily service the mortgage even with an increase in interest rates.

To sit here and pretend that low interest rates don’t inflate housing prices Or affect affordability is wild.

I’m not suggesting the government will ever increase rates, I’m saying they should.

Also, what was the effect of 2008 on housing prices in the US?

[Mach1]

Prior to the just concluded federal election that nobody wanted, one that cost Canadian taxpayers $600+ Bln, the Liberal Government pushed forward policies to limit the growth of the oil and gas sector in Alberta. Bill C-69 delayed and damaged the ability of new projects to get started in Alberta, while foreign investment in Alberta’s oil patch continued to exit the country. The Senate pushed through with Bill C-48 – the oil tanker moratorium – a bill specifically targeted at Alberta and the ability of Alberta and Canada to ship oil to overseas markets. Meanwhile, pre-Covid and post-Covid, cruise ships burning oil will continue to harbor in B.C. ports and B.C. will continue to ship coal to China and India. There has been no mention of curtailing these activities. The fact that these industries have not been targeted in a province that still has potential for Liberal votes is no coincidence.

To “help out”, the oil and gas sector, the Liberals recently pledged $2 billion for a “Futures Fund” for Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador to “support local and regional economic diversification” and develop clean energy opportunities in the coming decade. This is to transition oil and gas workers away from the energy industry. The government wants to spend $2 billion to reduce work in an industry that employs over 500,000 people nationwide and one that represents 10% of Canada’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 20 % of our exports, and contributes $10 to 20 billion a year to the governments coffers. How does that make any sense?

How important is the oil and gas sector to Canada’s balance of trade and gross exports? In 2020, it represented almost 20% of Canadian Exports – which was the worst year ever for the oil and gas industry. No other industry contributes as much to the Canadian economy and trade.

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Alberta also contributes more to confederation than any other province. In 2017, in the harshest downturn in the Alberta oil patch had seen in at least the last 30 years if not in history, Alberta was the largest contributor to the Federal tax coffers per capita. Albertans pay almost twice as much per capita in taxes as Quebec does, 33% more than Ontario or BC, and about 45 % more than the national average if Alberta wasn’t included in it. Even during Covid, Alberta was the largest contributor per capita to GDP and to government revenue, although detailed statistics have not yet been supplied by our woefully inadequate Liberal government.

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But this isn’t new… it is not like this is a recent event. In fact, it has been like this for years. On average, Albertans pay twice as much in taxes as anyone else in Canada. And Albertans haven’t complained. Alberta is a province of hard-working individuals who want to excel, grow, lead, and produce. Alberta cautiously produces its resources in an environmentally friendly fashion that sets the international standards for safety, stewardship, and compliance. Alberta also freely gives some of the wealth generated back to the Federal economy for the patronage, safety, and lifestyle that Canada offers, to the benefit of all Canadians. Or it has until now.

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One should look at what Alberta gets back for those contributions. After all, the Federal government does spend on programs to increase research, support business, provide access to healthcare, support entrepreneurs, etc. Look at the help they have given the auto industry in Ontario, Bombardier in Quebec, the Irvings in the Maritimes. Despite recent scandals, the current government still gives projects to SNC Lavalin! How about Alberta? Surely it must get its fair share? Apparently not.

The table below illustrates where the government uses its money to buy goods and services. This covers basic government activities – the salaries of public servants, the day‑to‑day operation of government departments, and military installations and operations. It also includes the purchase of supplies and materials. Alberta has the least amount per capita spend of any province. Obviously, the Government prefers to do business elsewhere than Alberta.



Well, I am sure they give it back equally to the people though, right? After all, aren’t Canadians all equal under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Since Alberta had the worst unemployment in its history and Calgary has the highest unemployment of all the large cities in Canada with the recent oil downturn, surely this is when Alberta would get some back, isn’t it? These transfers to persons are federal transfers to persons, comprising payments under federal programs, such as Employment Insurance, the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security. Hmmm it seems like more of that money goes to other provinces too.

Goose and Golden Eggs - Phil Harris 5

Well then… where do those BILLIONS of extra tax dollars go? They go to the “have-not” provinces. In the case of some of those provinces, they have been getting billions of dollars in equalization for years so you think they would be grateful regarding where that money comes from. Quebec has received over $55 Billion in the last five years. Even almighty Ontario, with all the government support for autos and government offices, has received more than $6 B in the last 5 years. Anyone see Alberta in that chart? No, Alberta hasn’t seen an equalization payment in about 40 years. Now if you look at the charts above and realize that one province pays a lot more than everyone else, and receives a lot less, it shouldn’t be hard to figure out where that money is coming form.

Goose and Golden Eggs - Phil Harris 7

One would also think if the federal government is taking and spending Alberta’s money, they would also give Alberta a fair say at the federal level when it comes to politics- that only seems to make sense – right?

Not so. Alberta is the least represented province in Confederation, by a long shot. It can be seen from the readily published data – Alberta is poorly represented compared to its population and even more so compared to its contributions to GDP in this country. I particularly stressed the four largest provinces in the figure below – no slight is meant to our other friends and neighbors. Alberta contributes more per capita to Canada’s GDP than any other province – and gets the least representation in parliament. For ever Billion $ of GDP, Alberta gets half the seats of Quebec and the fewest seats. For every million people, Alberta gets fewest seats of any province in Canada. Alberta is under-represented on every account. Can anyone justify why Quebec gets 9.3 seats per million people while Alberta only gets 7.9? That is almost a 20% difference in representation, and it is going to the largest population center in Canada, and the largest “taker” of transfer payments.

As it sits, Alberta is almost 12 % of the population of Canada but only gets 10% of the seats in parliament. What are the implications if Ontario and Quebec each got as many seats per capita as Alberta? Ontario would lose 8 seats and Quebec would lose 12. Twenty seats lost from the dominant east whose votes drive the results of federal elections. Consider how that would change election results and policies across this country. If the number of seats was determined by provincial GDP, with Alberta as the norm, Ontario would lose 45 seats and Quebec would lose 40 – with the result being that Alberta’s 34 seats would almost match the 38 that Quebec would get. An electoral reform based on contributions to GDP would move the balance of power away from the east. Currently, eastern Canada represents about 69% of the seats in the House of Commons, a GDP based reform would reduce that to about 62% and result in representation based on economic contribution to the country.

Goose and Golden Eggs - Phil Harris 8

Just how economically powerful is the west? Were Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba (the prairie provinces) to secede from Confederation – The newly formed union would be the 5th largest oil and gas producer in the world. Alberta produces 80% of all the crude oil in Canada, and 70 % of all the natural gas. By far, the majority of this is used by the rest of Canada – although exports of oil and gas is one of the revenue generators federally. Between Alberta and Saskatchewan, it is 90 % of all the crude oil. While becoming one of the richest countries per capita in the world, the rest of Canada would slip to about 30th place on the list of oil producing countries, somewhere between Romania and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The trade balance of the rest of Canada would drop dramatically as we shipped oil to them, our export and their import.

Canada is the 6th largest wheat producer in the world, and 90% of it comes from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba. The prairie provinces also have huge uranium and potash resources, other major exports. Canada ranks highest of all the top 10 oil exporting countries, having the lowest levels of corruption, the highest ethics, and the most environmental production.

Goose and Golden Eggs - Phil Harris 9

The recent election has determined that Canada will basically have the same federal government it had 6 weeks ago. Canadians want the current government to be held in check and not have a majority. Despite what the current government wants, the reality is, once the world emerges from Covid, oil and gas consumption in the world will be on the rise once again. The IEA foresees peak oil demand in 2040, although the rate of increase is expected to slow by 2030.

Canada can provide energy to the world cost effectively, ethically and under the strictest of environmental regulations. Canada can lead the world in emissions reductions – we already have the lowest flare gas emissions and have dramatically reduced the emissions from the oil sands. This is not being done by carbon taxes; it is done by incentivizing industry to grow in an environmentally conscious manner. Canada can employ the wealth of its resources to drive research and development (the oil and as industry is already the largest private sector contributor to R&D) into carbon sequestration, alternative energy, and energy efficiency. Even with the same election results, it’s time Canadians demand more growth rather than more governance, more value rather more virtue signalling and for more conscience and more common sense rather than more control.

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[Mach1]

The remaining graphics

[Mach1]

The final graphic.

Sorry...it's the only way I could put the whole article in here.

[complexintentions]

Canada's been a socialist haven for ages. They're just stopped pretending anything else anymore. Must suck a bit a bit to be Jagmeet when the Libs out-Commie the NDP hahah! And now Justin and Jag are in bed again for another 2-4 years. Think the money taps were open before now? You haven't seen anything.

Unfortunately, it always ends the same way. It's never different this time.

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[digits_]

Canada's been a socialist haven for ages. They're just stopped pretending anything else anymore. Must suck a bit a bit to be Jagmeet when the Libs out-Commie the NDP hahah! And now Justin and Jag are in bed again for another 2-4 years. Think the money taps were open before now? You haven't seen anything.

Unfortunately, it always ends the same way. It's never different this time.





dt210920.gif

Yeah, look at all those other failed 'socialist' states in Europe where 5 weeks vacation is the norm, people can afford to own houses on minimum wage, healthcare is affordable even without insurance and you don't risk getting kicked out of your home at retirement because property taxes are linked to your level of income.

Yuck!

[goldeneagle]

To sit here and pretend that low interest rates don’t inflate housing prices Or affect affordability is wild.

Demand affects affordability, interest rate affect prices.

It's not hard to see how this works. Take a look at some hard and fast numbers.

A 500,000 mortgage with 25 year amortization at a 1.9% rate equates to a monthly payment of 2093 dollars. Over the life of the mortgage principle payment equates to 500,000, and there will be 128,000 paid out as interest, total cost of the purchase was 628,000

A 360,000 mortgage on a 25 year amortization at a 5% interest rate equates to a monthly payment of 2093 dollars. Over the life of the mortgage principle payments total 360,000 dollars, and interest payments total 268,000, for a total payout of 628,000

If an average household can afford a 2100 dollar payment, they will be in the market for a 500K home today, and average homes will be priced at that level with today's rates. If/When rates go up to 5%, that same buyer will only be able to afford 360, and average house prices will eventually settle to that number because that's what the buyers can afford.

What is most interesting, doesn't matter if it's 500 at 1.9 or 360 at 5.0, in both cases that home will cost you 628.

Low interest rates cause sticker prices to go up because folks can borrow more for the same payment. Higher rates cause sticker prices to go down, because folks can borrow less for that payment.

[complexintentions]

Canada's been a socialist haven for ages. They're just stopped pretending anything else anymore. Must suck a bit a bit to be Jagmeet when the Libs out-Commie the NDP hahah! And now Justin and Jag are in bed again for another 2-4 years. Think the money taps were open before now? You haven't seen anything.

Unfortunately, it always ends the same way. It's never different this time.





dt210920.gif

Yeah, look at all those other failed 'socialist' states in Europe where 5 weeks vacation is the norm, people can afford to own houses on minimum wage, healthcare is affordable even without insurance and you don't risk getting kicked out of your home at retirement because property taxes are linked to your level of income.

Yuck!

Oh please. I live in Europe and what you're saying is nonsense. Which country or countries are you referring to? Let me guess...Scandinavia? Completely different culture, where people are willing to pay 25% VAT and actually pay it because they trust the government - not like Canada where everybody's doing everything they can to avoid paying their taxes. 40% of Canadians don't even pay ANY tax net of government programs. As far as embracing socialism, you better believe the former Soviet states have zero interest in going back to collectivism, comrade. Do tell, which country are you saying it's possible to buy a house on that country's minimum wage? lol

Sorry, but there's no such thing as a free lunch. But it's a nice escapist fantasy to believe that things are so much better somewhere else. Good luck with that 1.5 trillion dollar debt, I'm just grateful I won't be contributing a dime towards it.