Best guess when recalls could happen

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rudder
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by rudder »

link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm
Any updated opinions on when hiring will start back up.
Recalls commencing spring 2021 to accommodate increase to 70% capacity. New-hires spring 2022 if AC starts hiring again.

If Jazz and SKY merge, or if AC still has pilots on lay-off for all of 2022, no Express hiring before 2023.
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link821
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by link821 »

[/quote]

Recalls commencing spring 2021 to accommodate increase to 70% capacity. New-hires spring 2022 if AC starts hiring again.

If Jazz and SKY merge, or if AC still has pilots on lay-off for all of 2022, no Express hiring before 2023.
[/quote]

Brutal....this sounds more like a fact than an opinion?
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by rudder »

link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:55 pm
Brutal....this sounds more like a fact than an opinion?
Pure speculation. But just look at what AC is doing with the schedule and listen to what is AC is saying publicly.

The rest is just a math exercise.
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AA123455
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by AA123455 »

rudder wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 3:28 pm
link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:55 pm
Brutal....this sounds more like a fact than an opinion?
Pure speculation. But just look at what AC is doing with the schedule and listen to what is AC is saying publicly.

The rest is just a math exercise.
Exactly.

A company the size of Air Canada can’t do much without publicly disclosing it. You won’t find many insights or enlightenment on this forum that isn’t available on the AC website.

%25 seats available this fall, no clue on the type, base distribution or express/mainline ratio. Should know more by mid August.
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truedude
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by truedude »

rudder wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:08 pm
link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm
Any updated opinions on when hiring will start back up.
Recalls commencing spring 2021 to accommodate increase to 70% capacity. New-hires spring 2022 if AC starts hiring again.

If Jazz and SKY merge, or if AC still has pilots on lay-off for all of 2022, no Express hiring before 2023.
This is pure speculation. Everything being said in public is super conservative. In reality, they just don't know. Watch the schedule as it is updated month to month. Watch passenger numbers as they are published. Watch when and under what conditions boarders are reopening. Everything he is saying is being pulled from his ass, with the self delusional confidence pilots tend to exume.

But people do want to travel, and it will come back sooner than I think he is prediciting. Time will tell. The picture will be far clearer come September.
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780Pilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 780Pilot »

Remember some AC exec said he expects pretty good pax levels by December this year. He didn't specific what % capacity would be acceptable. Like others have said they will update the schedule month to month based on demand most likely. Again this is all smoke for now. But it seems logical.
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KenoraPilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by KenoraPilot »

link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm
Any updated opinions on when hiring will start back up.
It's going to be a while I would guess. Jazz currently has 675 pilots "inactive" which all need to come back on the property before Jazz will "hire" again. Also the only reason Jazz was really hiring was due to the shortage at AC which has now gone away. AC has many pilots furloughed which all need to be recalled before they hire again. So until you see AC hiring, you won't really see Jazz hiring for the foreseeable future. Jazz has an average of 33.6 pilots per year who are reaching 65 in the next 5 years. 168 to reach 65 by 2024. Even retirement/attrition doesn't account for the kind of hiring we've seen over the past 5 years. Personally I think we're going back to the 1-3 GS's a year like it was pre 2015 (at least for a little while).
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Ash Ketchum »

rudder wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:08 pm
link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm
Any updated opinions on when hiring will start back up.
Recalls commencing spring 2021 to accommodate increase to 70% capacity. New-hires spring 2022 if AC starts hiring again.

If Jazz and SKY merge, or if AC still has pilots on lay-off for all of 2022, no Express hiring before 2023.
That's my line of thinking as well. I figure 12-24 months to get recalled at Jazz depending on seniority. I was in the hiring pool at AC before all of this went down and was expecting a call for April/May GS (references were called and all) and it seems like now I will most likely get on with AC in 3 ish years +/- 1 year.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Ash Ketchum »

rudder wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:08 pm
link821 wrote:
Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:19 pm
Any updated opinions on when hiring will start back up.
Recalls commencing spring 2021 to accommodate increase to 70% capacity. New-hires spring 2022 if AC starts hiring again.

If Jazz and SKY merge, or if AC still has pilots on lay-off for all of 2022, no Express hiring before 2023.
That's my line of thinking as well. I figure 12-24 months to get recalled at Jazz depending on seniority. I was in the hiring pool at AC before all of this went down and was expecting a call for April/May GS (references were called and all) and it seems like now I will most likely get on with AC in 3 ish years +/- 1 year.
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SteveWhite
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by SteveWhite »

For those still active (this applies to any airline really) how often are you flying?

I know some airlines have reduced blocks, but those still holding the (reduced) blocks...is there much flying at the moment? What about guys/girls on RSV?
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KenoraPilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by KenoraPilot »

Sounds like Sky is recalling pilots June 1 & July 1
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CPT.HarshColdReality
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

well aint that some awsome news! keep it coming. lets turn the tide around.
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flybyyou
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by flybyyou »

KenoraPilot wrote:
Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:47 pm
Sounds like Sky is recalling pilots June 1 & July 1
Don't forget Sky has a much smaller operation and employs +/- 280 pilots versus 1500+ at Jazz...
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McKinley
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by McKinley »

I don’t claim to have a crystal ball but I think this crisis ( excuse the gaslighting language) is far from over.

I certainly hope that the cessation of lay-off mitigation will coincide with a uptick in flying. I also hope that further layoffs won’t be required and we can start on the road to recovery. With this being said, 6-8 months for a basic restart of the economy ( assuming there’s no resurgence of the virus) makes me inclined to worry. Then, when we add in the unemployment rate, debt loads and ( valid and inflated) fear I worry more.
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dhc#
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

dhc# wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 6:35 am
Are these numbers accurate for how much of the Jazz fleet is currently active ? Where is the inactive fleet parked ?? (info from the Planespotters site)
Not sure where the Planespotters site gets their updates, but this snapshot of the number of Jazz planes currently in service has increased in the past six weeks since the last time I checked the numbers from that site (29 total aircraft in service on May 13th 2020)...maybe some good news...
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dhc#
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

Ouch :(

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/a ... 82841.html

Air Canada Discontinues Service on 30 Domestic Regional Routes and Closes Eight Stations in Canada

Regional flying rationalized due to COVID-19 and government travel restrictions, part of airline's Cost Reduction Program to reduce cash burn


MONTREAL, June 30, 2020  /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada said today that it is indefinitely suspending service on 30 domestic regional routes and closing eight stations at regional airports in Canada.

These structural changes to Air Canada's domestic regional network are being made as a result of continuing weak demand for both business and leisure travel due to COVID-19 and provincial and federal government-imposed travel restrictions and border closures, which are diminishing prospects for a near-to-mid-term recovery.

As the company has previously reported, Air Canada expects the industry's recovery will take a minimum of three years. As a consequence, other changes to its network and schedule, as well as further service suspensions, will be considered over the coming weeks as the airline takes steps to decisively reduce its overall cost structure and cash burn rate.

A full list of route suspensions and station closures is below.

As a result of COVID-19, Air Canada reported a net loss of $1.05 billion in the first quarter of 2020, including a net cash-burn in March of $688 million. The carrier has undertaken a range of structural changes including significant cost savings and liquidity measures, of which today's announced service suspensions form part. Other measures include:

A workforce reduction of approximately 20,000 employees, representing more than 50 per cent of its staff, achieved through layoffs, severances, early retirements and special leaves;
A company-wide Cost Reduction and Capital Deferral Program, that has to date identified around $1.1 billion in savings;
A reduction of its system-wide capacity by approximately 85 per cent in the second quarter compared to last year's second quarter and an expected third quarter capacity reduction of at least 75% from the third quarter of 2019;
The permanent removal of 79 aircraft from its mainline and Rouge fleets;
And raising approximatively $5.5 billion in liquidity since March 13, 2020, through a series of debt, aircraft and equity financings.
Further initiatives are being considered.

Route Suspensions

The following routes will be suspended indefinitely as per applicable regulatory notice requirements. Affected customers will be contacted by Air Canada and offered options, including alternative routings where available.

Maritimes/Newfoundland and Labrador:

Deer Lake-Goose Bay;
Deer Lake-St. John's;
Fredericton-Halifax;
Fredericton-Ottawa;
Moncton-Halifax;
Saint John-Halifax;
Charlottetown-Halifax;
Moncton-Ottawa;
Gander-Goose Bay;
Gander-St. John's;
Bathurst-Montreal;
Wabush-Goose Bay;
Wabush-Sept-Iles;
Goose Bay-St. John's.

Quebec/Ontario:

Baie Comeau-Montreal;
Baie Comeau-Mont Joli;
Gaspé-Iles de la Madeleine;
Gaspé-Quebec City;
Sept-Iles-Quebec City;
Val d'Or-Montreal;
Mont Joli-Montreal;
Rouyn-Noranda-Val d'Or;
Kingston-Toronto;
London-Ottawa;
North Bay-Toronto
Windsor-Montreal

Western Canada:

Regina-Winnipeg;
Regina-Saskatoon;
Regina-Ottawa;
Saskatoon-Ottawa.

Station Closures

The following are the Regional Airports where Air Canada is closing its stations:

Bathurst (New Brunswick)
Wabush (Newfoundland and Labrador)
Gaspé (Quebec)
Baie Comeau (Quebec)
Mont Joli (Quebec)
Val d'Or (Quebec)
Kingston (Ontario)
North Bay (Ontario)

About Air Canada

Air Canada is Canada's largest domestic and international airline. Canada's flag carrier is among the 20 largest airlines in the world and in 2019 served over 51 million customers. Air Canada is a founding member of Star Alliance, the world's most comprehensive air transportation network. Air Canada is the only international network carrier in North America to receive a Four-Star ranking according to independent U.K. research firm Skytrax, which also named Air Canada the 2019 Best Airline in North America. For more information, please visit: aircanada.com/media, follow @AirCanada on Twitter and join Air Canada on Facebook. 

Internet: aircanada.com/media

SOURCE Air Canada
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780Pilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 780Pilot »

Makes sense. Areas where COVID is worse like Ontario and Quebec just don't have the demand. Especially when a lot of local small town mayor's don't want people from the city's. At least places like BC are adding more route capacity recently (Jazz).
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