Best guess when recalls could happen

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CPT.HarshColdReality
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

Malfunction wrote:
Sat May 09, 2020 1:52 pm
I'm on beer 3 already...
hahah cheers brother! your lucky you got a job offer in these times!
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truedude
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by truedude »

Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
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Rowdy
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Rowdy »

The second provincial and national restrictions ease this summer, it'll 'take off' and it'll happen quickly. Sure there might now be requirements for this and that to get on an airplane (temperature checks etc).

Within hours of the US border opening it'll jump as well.

My predictions (for Jazz anyways) are that the company is going to be caught massively off guard when it goes crazy end of july or start of august. Expect them to be offering up double time(or better) as they scramble to catch up on recurrent training/currency etc. It's way easier to lay off than it is to recall.Will we be back to the hiring /upgrade frenzy? No. But we will be back flying.

Being 'trapped' at home will cause many to simply load up the credit card and lines of credit to go see loved ones and get a vacation the second they are able. From what I've seen and heard, it's really sparked a need to stay in touch and focus on whats important. Usually that means family and friends. that'll do a lot for travel domestically.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Ash Ketchum »

I think part of how long the recall takes depends on if and when the second wave of the virus arrives coupled with the time it takes to make an effective antibody treatment or vaccine. We could see flying go up in July-September but then get hammered down next fall/winter when the second wave arrives. Of course there is also the issue of how long it will take the economy to bounce back with millions of people losing their jobs and businesses going bankrupt.
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McKinley
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by McKinley »

Hard call.. ( I do not work for Jazz) but I work for a regional carrier that served many places Jazz goes. I see lots of things that may bode well for aviation and other factors that do not.

There’s so many different possibilities...

I do know that many of the places that Jazz services depend on regional airlines for sanity, medical trips, cultural trips, family connections into other cities, bereavement travel etc. I do not see this demand evaporating. I cannot see people driving from Terrace to Vancouver for a medical appointment.. there will be a lot of demand for this..

I also think CR is in a bit of a conundrum where If he pulls out of places like YXT, YYD etc there’s the very strong possibility someone else moves in and therefore he loses market share along those routes. Once one pulls out of a place it can be difficult to get those customers back once someone else moves in. ( this may bode well for us)

Jazz provides an excellent, professional, efficient and safe service as does AC.

Personally, I cannot wait to visit family and friends. Yes, there’s risk to flying .. but there’s also a risk pumping my own gas, going to the bank, post office, Costco, the bike shop etc ..you name it. Personally, I’d prefer flying to going to Costco.

The best thing airlines can do is risk mitigation.. the public will need to see the airlines taking serious and concrete steps to reduce transmission and enforcing their rules. ( eg. If someone is hacking, horking and sweating profusely in the boarding lounge they should be removed from the boarding lounge)

On the other hand, I have elderly parents who have said that they’d prefer me to drive to see them vs flying. ( 15+ hr drive 🤮) (Here’s where the risk mitigation comes in) the thing is, they still go to the grocery store. 🤪

The media has created such a culture of hysteria surrounding this virus and that culture probably will have a greater impact than the virus itself.

I hope we all go back to work sooner than later.
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by goleafsgo »

Malfunction wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 5:25 pm
Hello everyone. What are your best guesses when jazz will start recalling inactive/layed off pilots. The only reason I am asking is because I have been offered summer employment but I don't want to accept it if jazz is going to recall me in July or Aug. I have been with the company 2.5 years and low 900's on the senority list.
Section 6 - .09 of our contract may cover you
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ayseven
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by ayseven »

The media loves a story sure, but possible hospital problems as a result of this are very real. Even with beds, they will be short-staffed. This is the issue and what we are trying to avert.
Just think tho how much money people are saving by not going to hockey games etc. A nice trip is in the cards for sure. That said, there is a lot of suffering going on. Food banks are going mental.
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Babar350
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Babar350 »

To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx
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MrAviator19
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by MrAviator19 »

truedude wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 7:39 am
Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
Pessimists? On AvCanada?! NOOOO! :goodman:

MrA
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mbav8r
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by mbav8r »

MrAviator19 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:56 am
truedude wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 7:39 am
Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
Pessimists? On AvCanada?! NOOOO! :goodman:

MrA
Don’t mistake pessimism for realism, I had a conversation on here last year when there was talk about big raises and using the shortage to make gains, I said we are one SARS event away from not having a shortage, which was completely dismissed as though the shortage of experienced pilots would last forever. Well here we are, some companies have already closed their doors forever, some are restructuring in bankruptcy, some are shrinking before they end up bankrupt, how long do you think this surplus will last.
I have changed my view, initially I was at three years now I more on the realistic side of five years before any meaningful hiring will occur.
Disclaimer, I have absolutely no idea, just my gut and experience of three downturns, by all means though if it helps you, keep up the optimism
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truedude
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by truedude »

Pessimism and realism are generally perspectives. The original question was when he could expect to be back at work. That will not be 3 years, or 5 years. He will be back before that. Likely inside a year, possibly by the end of this year. As far as major hiring, again, that is perspective. But right now I will be happy to see everyone back at work, and again, I don't think that will take 3 years. Maybe I am wrong. But people seem ready to bust, and flights are being added near daily to schedules, both here at home, and in the states. The EU is talking about opening boarders to countries with similar COVID numbers and precautions in place.

People want to move. For the first time in modern history, the majority of the world has had restrictions placed on their ability to move freely around the world (or at least the parts they want to go). I think that has left a pretty bitter taste for a lot of people, and perhaps they are reexamining priorities in their life.

It won't be the same as it was. But again, people have short memories. The news media will lose interest, and when this isn't in people's faces 24/7, people will wonder out.
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2112
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 2112 »

It's all conjecture at this point. The only major problem I see in the short term is that 50% of Canadian consumers were living within $200 dollars of default before covid. A large number of these people now find themselves either laid off or on reduced hours/wages. Many will use lines of credit and other high interest debt to keep the lights on. The longer this lockdown lasts the less money these households will have to spend on that trip when deciding between vacation and mortgage payments. I hope i'm wrong but most people I talk to are already stuggling to stay afloat never mind take a trip.
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DHC-1 Jockey
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

Babar350 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 5:00 am
To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx
That 600% surge is compared to the 3 days before Carnival announced they were resuming some cruises. It's easy to increase bookings 600% when no-one was booking trips a few days prior.
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skypirate88
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by skypirate88 »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 5:12 pm
Babar350 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 5:00 am
To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx
That 600% surge is compared to the 3 days before Carnival announced they were resuming some cruises. It's easy to increase bookings 600% when no-one was booking trips a few days prior.
It also said bookings were up 200% from the same time last year.
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tbayav8er
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by tbayav8er »

I think it's going to depend largely on when/if a vaccine is developed and mass distributed. I think if there were a vaccine, that would drastically increase the public's confidence in going back on airplanes, going back to normal etc. I would say, once a vaccine is developed, recalls would probably start happening around that time. If there's never a vaccine developed, it might be a while.
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780Pilot
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 780Pilot »

Yea the second theirs a vaccine that's the savior to us. people just won't care anymore imo. Business as usual.
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double-j
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by double-j »

780Pilot wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:59 am
Yea the second theirs a vaccine that's the savior to us. people just won't care anymore imo. Business as usual.
People won't but the government will. Just look round at the limitations on gatherings (non-existent, separation, etc). This will take some time yet.

J
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by dhc# »

Are these numbers accurate for how much of the Jazz fleet is currently active ? Where is the inactive fleet parked ?? (info from the Planespotters site)
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by EPR »

dhc# wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 6:35 am
Are these numbers accurate for how much of the Jazz fleet is currently active ? Where is the inactive fleet parked ?? (info from the Planespotters site)
I've heard North Bay is a "boneyard" for the older RJ's.
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by Canoehead »

dhc# wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 6:35 am
Are these numbers accurate for how much of the Jazz fleet is currently active ? Where is the inactive fleet parked ?? (info from the Planespotters site)
Seems somewhat correct, although there are a few errors there. For starters, Jazz doesn't have any CRJ-100s, but they have CRJ-200s.
Also, that list shows no "Future" CRJ-900s. There are in fact 9 CRJ-900s that are to be delivered to Jazz (supposed to be 2020 but will be delayed).

But to answer your question, yes a fairly accurate list of active aircraft. Inactive airplanes are parked at all 4 bases, plus YHZ. DH8 classics go to YYB for retirement. Several CRJ-200s that were to be phased out towards the end of 2020 are currently being sent to Arizona. Most of these are the airplanes that Jazz retrieved back from GGN (good riddance).
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by FL-200 »

Seems somewhat correct, although there are a few errors there. For starters, Jazz doesn't have any CRJ-100s, but they have CRJ-200s.
Also, that list shows no "Future" CRJ-900s. There are in fact 9 CRJ-900s that are to be delivered to Jazz (supposed to be 2020 but will be delayed).

But to answer your question, yes a fairly accurate list of active aircraft. Inactive airplanes are parked at all 4 bases, plus YHZ. DH8 classics go to YYB for retirement. Several CRJ-200s that were to be phased out towards the end of 2020 are currently being sent to Arizona. Most of these are the airplanes that Jazz retrieved back from GGN (good riddance).
[/quote]

Yup!

Chorus CPA with AC is a pre negotiated fixed cost for AC. Once those new RJs arrive at Jazz’s hangar, AC starts paying for them, wether they fly or not.
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by genetic jack hammer »

FL-200 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 7:01 pm
Seems somewhat correct, although there are a few errors there. For starters, Jazz doesn't have any CRJ-100s, but they have CRJ-200s.
Also, that list shows no "Future" CRJ-900s. There are in fact 9 CRJ-900s that are to be delivered to Jazz (supposed to be 2020 but will be delayed).

But to answer your question, yes a fairly accurate list of active aircraft. Inactive airplanes are parked at all 4 bases, plus YHZ. DH8 classics go to YYB for retirement. Several CRJ-200s that were to be phased out towards the end of 2020 are currently being sent to Arizona. Most of these are the airplanes that Jazz retrieved back from GGN (good riddance).
Yup!

Chorus CPA with AC is a pre negotiated fixed cost for AC. Once those new RJs arrive at Jazz’s hangar, AC starts paying for them, wether they fly or not.
[/quote]

A few of the new CRJ-900's have arrived already, they're just sitting in Halifax, waiting to be put into service.
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by 47north »

[/quote]

A few of the new CRJ-900's have arrived already, they're just sitting in Halifax, waiting to be put into service.
[/quote]

That is incorrect. The aircraft in YHZ are from the existing fleet. The newest aircraft is coming together in YMX and will be delivered in June. The deliveries for the remaining 8 have been delayed, but most will come this year with one or two pushed into the beginning of 2021
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by genetic jack hammer »

47north wrote:
Tue May 19, 2020 7:49 am
A few of the new CRJ-900's have arrived already, they're just sitting in Halifax, waiting to be put into service.
[/quote]

That is incorrect. The aircraft in YHZ are from the existing fleet. The newest aircraft is coming together in YMX and will be delivered in June. The deliveries for the remaining 8 have been delayed, but most will come this year with one or two pushed into the beginning of 2021
[/quote]


Ok, i'm just going by what maintenance told us. Maybe it was an apprentice who didn't know all the details. I stand corrected.
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Re: Best guess when recalls could happen

Post by flying4dollars »

truedude wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 7:39 am
Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.
I agree. I was having this discussion with an AC friend of mine yesterday about this very topic. I strongly disagree it will take 3 years to return to pre-pandemic levels. Most people will follow the herd or the popular idea. In the beginning, everyone got on the stay home train, whether they truly believed in it or not. Then people got antsy sitting inside all the time, isolated from friends, family and everyday life. The moment the first nice day hit, everyone was outside. I was even stuck in traffic on HWY 1. It felt like pre-pandemic times. I think now that provinces are starting to open up, people will have generally gotten over the fear mongering and will NOT hesitate to return to normalcy. No, not the new normal that everyone thinks will happen, but normal normal. We were sitting at Joey's yesterday (only 2 days after opening back up) and by the end of the discussion, and a few hours later, we looked up to see a fairly full restaurant, bustling with servers and patrons. The patio was full and the mood was positive. Sure there was spacing between tables and all the servers were wearing masks etc, but otherwise it all felt normal again. It was refreshing.

Do I think aviation will recover as quickly? Mmm maybe not quite, but it'll happen a lot quicker than experts were, or are, anticipating. Tell me, do you personally know anyone who will be refusing or hesitant to travel when the borders open? Because I sure don't. And that includes elderly folk that I know. Nobody seems phased anymore because the anticipation of everything opening is a huge relief to a lot of people who are craving social interaction.

Now, what will be interesting to watch, will be the impact of any second wave. I think if it remains manageable with phased opening plans, the general consensus will be that we're good to go. If the impact of the second wave starts to shut things down again, then I could see that crippling things. I'm not saying everything will be normal by fall, but it sure won't be fall 3 years from now. My guess is no more than a year or 2, if that.
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