Best guess when recalls could happen

[Transition9er2]

Congrats to the 77(ish) that got recalled.

It’s a numbers game now. How many staff can be employed at a minimum to get Wage Subsidy and provide the company issued top-up. Given the complicated extension to the CEWS and complete lack of regulatory improvement in aviation... why would they let 600 leeches stick around. They had to rip the bandaid off at some point and move on with the group they have.

Sh!tty pill to swallow, could totally see it coming, but it still sucks to see the official notice.

Again, congrats to those who got recalled!! Hopefully things start improving with the BS virus so we can all get back to work soon.

T.

[astronaut]

Fantastic work calling 600 pilots "leeches".

[flyinhigh]

Curious, 77 recalls but 600 layoffs. MMM, why would there be recalls in this case?

[mbav8r]

Curious, 77 recalls but 600 layoffs. MMM, why would there be recalls in this case?

Originally it was 675 layoffs but they were on CEWS, which kept getting an extension, this time though both the company and the union attempted to get clarification on the “new” CEWS so they could make an agreement. They were unable to get any information on how the new program works in time to extend it, so they had to officially give notice that layoffs are in effect. They managed to make an agreement to save an additional 75 jobs with some compromises to contract language as a LOU, anyhow 600 are the official numbers until next March unless the flying drops below 5% of pre COVID.

[KenoraPilot]

The terms have changed:

Before it was NO MORE than 675 laid off
now it is NO LESS than 635 Active Pilots (not including training pilots, LTD, STD, MAT, LOA etc)

So essentially as retirements or attrition happen they will have to recall more pilots & when flying increases they will have to recall.

[Inverted2]

I wonder if the 70 downgrades of current pilots will be reduced to account for the 20 taking the early retirement package at the end of the year as well as several more hitting 65? That would bring the downgrades to about 40-45.

[flyinhigh]

Ahh, thanks.

Curious, 77 recalls but 600 layoffs. MMM, why would there be recalls in this case?

Originally it was 675 layoffs but they were on CEWS, which kept getting an extension, this time though both the company and the union attempted to get clarification on the “new” CEWS so they could make an agreement. They were unable to get any information on how the new program works in time to extend it, so they had to officially give notice that layoffs are in effect. They managed to make an agreement to save an additional 75 jobs with some compromises to contract language as a LOU, anyhow 600 are the official numbers until next March unless the flying drops below 5% of pre COVID.

[Inverted2]

So for what it’s worth, 635 pilots plus 41 training pilots gives 676, plus there’s approximately 150 pilots on medical leaves so as long as you’re roughly 850 or below on the list you’re safe. (for now)

[TheStig]

Don't have a horse in this race but I want to pass along my best wishes to those facing a layoff. I'm sure empty platitudes from anonymous posters don't mean much when you're faced with such disappointment and difficult economic circumstances but I think everyone here is hoping this nightmare ends soon. I have a number of friends who have been furloughed or expect to be within the coming months and the positive attitudes and focus that made them successful clearly show.

[KenoraPilot]

I wonder if the 70 downgrades of current pilots will be reduced to account for the 20 taking the early retirement package at the end of the year as well as several more hitting 65? That would bring the downgrades to about 40-45.

26 retiring at the end of 2020 and I doubt it. Essentially they will be 150-175FOs (ball park) and then that leaves 450+ Captains on the roster. They would downgrade more if they could but ALPA stopped the bleeding at 70 downgrades.....for now until a formal reduction. It’s all a give and take to avoid a full reduction bid which would result in moving and re training many pilots. Essentially we want to avoid bankruptcy so the give and take

[flyer 1492]

By delaying the equipment bid would not stop CCAA. Jazz is a creditor to Air Canada, so if Big Red goes to file with the courts Jazz goes also. Saw it in early 2000.

Flyer

[rudder]

By delaying the equipment bid would not stop CCAA. Jazz is a creditor to Air Canada, so if Big Red goes to file with the courts Jazz goes also. Saw it in early 2000.

Flyer

Jazz went in with AC in 2003 because it was a wholly-owned subsidiary of AC. AC took all of its wholly-owneds in with them. Any AC creditor would have gone after assets of any wholly-owned that did not have court supervised protection.

An AC filing circa 2020/2021 does not mean that CHR will also file. But Jazz will not go in to CCAA separately from CHR. CHR would take Jazz, Voyageur, and CAC in with them.

[KenoraPilot]

By delaying the equipment bid would not stop CCAA. Jazz is a creditor to Air Canada, so if Big Red goes to file with the courts Jazz goes also. Saw it in early 2000.

Flyer

The trick is not to go bankrupt prior to AC. If Chorus goes bankrupt prior to AC then it fails in its obligated contract (CPA). If Chorus lasts longer than AC, then Jazz gets a seat at the table when AC goes into bankruptcy.

[Splash]

By delaying the equipment bid would not stop CCAA. Jazz is a creditor to Air Canada, so if Big Red goes to file with the courts Jazz goes also. Saw it in early 2000.

Flyer

The trick is not to go bankrupt prior to AC. If Chorus goes bankrupt prior to AC then it fails in its obligated contract (CPA). If Chorus lasts longer than AC, then Jazz gets a seat at the table when AC goes into bankruptcy.

Yes, it would be better for AC to file for CCAA first, however it's not going to end well for Chorus in any event as the current CPA will get renegotiated. It doesn't take much of an imagination to foresee what the outcome will be; more cuts. Chorus as a creditor will not have enough influence on a restructuring to come out at the end of the process untouched.

[KenoraPilot]

By delaying the equipment bid would not stop CCAA. Jazz is a creditor to Air Canada, so if Big Red goes to file with the courts Jazz goes also. Saw it in early 2000.

Flyer

The trick is not to go bankrupt prior to AC. If Chorus goes bankrupt prior to AC then it fails in its obligated contract (CPA). If Chorus lasts longer than AC, then Jazz gets a seat at the table when AC goes into bankruptcy.

Yes, it would be better for AC to file for CCAA first, however it's not going to end well for Chorus in any event as the current CPA will get renegotiated. It doesn't take much of an imagination to foresee what the outcome will be; more cuts. Chorus as a creditor will not have enough influence on a restructuring to come out at the end of the process untouched.

Of course not....everyone will feel pain. That being said it's better to go into CCAA as a creditor who was still completing their contract rather than defaulting on the contract due to going into protection before AC. No one is going to come out the same once anyone enters CCAA.

Also there is no saying what "changes" will happen to the CPA and agreement due to covid regardless of CCAA.....I'm sure its being discussed as AC reduces fleet sizes etc. The 17 year contract is strong, but this COVID situation is stronger.

[Instructor_Mike]

That's my line of thinking as well. I figure 12-24 months to get recalled at Jazz depending on seniority. I was in the hiring pool at AC before all of this went down and was expecting a call for April/May GS (references were called and all) and it seems like now I will most likely get on with AC in 3 ish years +/- 1 year.

I was in the same boat. I have a buddy of mine at AC who was in ground school when this all hit. He's expecting it will take 2-3 years just to get through all the re-training for the laid off pilots that AC already has. Consider that AC has retired some of their older fleet which displaced a bunch of pilots and you still need to operate in seniority. It's going to be messy for a bit.

Still, retirements and so on will still keep picking away at the top and we just have to wait for our chance to move up. I'll be recalled by Jazz first though.

[link821]

Any updated opinions for this thread? Some glimmers of hope from a few US carriers over the last few months.

[Ash Ketchum]

Any updated opinions for this thread? Some glimmers of hope from a few US carriers over the last few months.

My guess is recalls start in Spring 2022 and go on until the end of 2023.

[780Pilot]

Does the news that AC gave Sky Regional the boot change anything? Jazz is the only one for AC now.

[Stayfly121]

Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.

Hope everyone’s doing alright.