Best guess when recalls could happen

[AWOS]

Any idea where we’re at on the seniority list after this last round of recalls?

Trying to figure out where I sit on the list now.

T

I'm pretty sure top of the inactive list is 1571. I heard there are quite a few people who have waived their call back for now so 1571 isn't necessarily the "top of the list" if those people choose to come back on the next round of callbacks.

[Transition9er2]

Thanks AWOS!

Hopefully there’s a couple more recall announcements coming in the nearish future.

Does anyone know if the company is getting close to meeting current demand levels or is there still a gap to fill? Starting to think we may not see anymore triple digit recalls coming our way after AC’s presentation to furloughed pilots yesterday. I assume we won’t hear anything else on recalls now until the bid comes out.

All speculation right now as usual. But any reliable info would be great.

T

[rudder]

Recalls are out of seniority (DOH) due the SKV MOU and the non-DOH Recall List.

Looking at DOH of junior active pilot is not a good indicator of where the next recall will come from.

361 pilots still on layoff/CEWS.

[yhz41]

Thanks AWOS!

Hopefully there’s a couple more recall announcements coming in the nearish future.

Does anyone know if the company is getting close to meeting current demand levels or is there still a gap to fill? Starting to think we may not see anymore triple digit recalls coming our way after AC’s presentation to furloughed pilots yesterday. I assume we won’t hear anything else on recalls now until the bid comes out.

All speculation right now as usual. But any reliable info would be great.

T

What was AC's presentation?

[Transition9er2]

Thanks AWOS!

Hopefully there’s a couple more recall announcements coming in the nearish future.

Does anyone know if the company is getting close to meeting current demand levels or is there still a gap to fill? Starting to think we may not see anymore triple digit recalls coming our way after AC’s presentation to furloughed pilots yesterday. I assume we won’t hear anything else on recalls now until the bid comes out.

All speculation right now as usual. But any reliable info would be great.

T

What was AC's presentation?

AC held a presentation for furloughed pilots only to discuss current state and next steps of the airline. The high-lites were, based on travel demand over the last 15 months they should have laid off more like 1700-1800 pilots rather than only 600. Current travel demand remains only 15% compared to same time 2019. Based on forecasts (using today’s numbers) recalls maybe 2022/2023 and hiring at AC could “potentially” start in another 2-3 years from now. All this could change however depending on government restrictions/involvement and travel demand as they were using today’s ugly numbers.

Looks to me like AC is giving Jazz the lions share of domestic flying vs. doing it themselves (which makes sense) and utilizing the pilots they currently have as best they can. That’s where my question comes from of weather jazz is close to filling their overall need of pilots or if there is still more room to go.

Thanks,

T

[boeingpilotguy]

I congratulate all those recalled.

Jazz Pilot Salary [YouTube] https://youtu.be/ZnYFy1c8Uyg [/YouTube]

[digits_]

AC held a presentation for furloughed pilots only to discuss current state and next steps of the airline. The high-lites were, based on travel demand over the last 15 months they should have laid off more like 1700-1800 pilots rather than only 600. Current travel demand remains only 15% compared to same time 2019. Based on forecasts (using today’s numbers) recalls maybe 2022/2023 and hiring at AC could “potentially” start in another 2-3 years from now.

If they truly believed that, wouldn't they lay off a bunch more pilots? What's the point of keeping them around if you don't think you'll need them for another 1.5-2 years.

[rudder]

AC held a presentation for furloughed pilots only to discuss current state and next steps of the airline. The high-lites were, based on travel demand over the last 15 months they should have laid off more like 1700-1800 pilots rather than only 600. Current travel demand remains only 15% compared to same time 2019. Based on forecasts (using today’s numbers) recalls maybe 2022/2023 and hiring at AC could “potentially” start in another 2-3 years from now.

If they truly believed that, wouldn't they lay off a bunch more pilots? What's the point of keeping them around if you don't think you'll need them for another 1.5-2 years.

AC had planned an 80% capacity summer 2022 operation. Looks like now AC feels return of the WB international capacity may lag that forecast.

Having said that, in a multi fleet type/ multi base system it takes significant advance planning to qualify pilots. The addition of the A220 and the return to service of the MAX required training of pilots to start in 2020 continuing through 2021 in order to be ready for summer 2022.

The CEWS subsidy has partially mitigated the excess pilot staffing costs. AC also received temporary relief from ACPA for pay guarantees in 2020.

The impact on Jazz is that it is unlikely that Jazz will be in a position to recall all laid off pilots or to begin hiring until AC resumes hiring and there is flow attrition from Jazz to AC.

Jazz may also have pilots on lay-off until 2023.

[link821]

Damn, few weeks ago it felt like we would see all furloughs back by early 2022..

[C-GGGQ]

Damn, few weeks ago it felt like we would see all furloughs back by early 2022..

You will. I see this as nothing more than AC scare tactics to get more concessions. The contract is due correct?

[rudder]

Damn, few weeks ago it felt like we would see all furloughs back by early 2022..

You will. I see this as nothing more than AC scare tactics to get more concessions. The contract is due correct?

There will be 100% employment at Jazz when the required pilots are 1350-1400.

As of July 2021, the requirements are several hundred pilots less.

It is a math exercise. Nothing more. Nothing less.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Damn, few weeks ago it felt like we would see all furloughs back by early 2022..

You will. I see this as nothing more than AC scare tactics to get more concessions. The contract is due correct?

There will be 100% employment at Jazz when the required pilots are 1350-1400.

As of July 2021, the requirements are several hundred pilots less.

It is a math exercise. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Except that Jazz is waaaayyy overstaffed right now.

[Transition9er2]

You will. I see this as nothing more than AC scare tactics to get more concessions. The contract is due correct?

There will be 100% employment at Jazz when the required pilots are 1350-1400.

As of July 2021, the requirements are several hundred pilots less.

It is a math exercise. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Except that Jazz is waaaayyy overstaffed right now.

Notwhoyouthinkiam - do you know this for a fact or you just putting your own opinions up?

T

[North Shore]

BC relaxed some travel restrictions yesterday: We are finally allowed to travel between health regions again. A short time after the announcement, BC Ferries' reservations website crashed because of volume. I wouldn't expect airlines to be any different once international or inter-provincial travel restrictions get removed...

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

There will be 100% employment at Jazz when the required pilots are 1350-1400.

As of July 2021, the requirements are several hundred pilots less.

It is a math exercise. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Except that Jazz is waaaayyy overstaffed right now.

Notwhoyouthinkiam - do you know this for a fact or you just putting your own opinions up?

T

It was a logical conclusion to come to from the following facts.

• Jazz took over the Embraers from SkyRegional
• Many SkyRegional pilots were recalled out of order
• For each SkyRegional pilot recalled out of order, another pilot was recalled (but not necessarily trained)

I could very easily be wrong, but I would be surprised if I am.

[the-minister31]

It was a logical conclusion to come to from the following facts.

• Jazz took over the Embraers from SkyRegional
• Many SkyRegional pilots were recalled out of order
• For each SkyRegional pilot recalled out of order, another pilot was recalled (but not necessarily trained)

I could very easily be wrong, but I would be surprised if I am.

I don't think Jazz is overstaffed. According to the MEC, the most junior Jazz recall is junior to the most junior Sky recall, they expect further recalls in july, august and possibly september, blocking averages are going up and they are at max training capacity...

Sounds like they are ramping up more than anything, it's promising.

I could very well be wrong as well, but it looks like they expect next summer and winter to be crazy busy !

[rudder]

It was a logical conclusion to come to from the following facts.

• Jazz took over the Embraers from SkyRegional
• Many SkyRegional pilots were recalled out of order
• For each SkyRegional pilot recalled out of order, another pilot was recalled (but not necessarily trained)

I could very easily be wrong, but I would be surprised if I am.

I don't think Jazz is overstaffed. According to the MEC, the most junior Jazz recall is junior to the most junior Sky recall, they expect further recalls in july, august and possibly september, blocking averages are going up and they are at max training capacity...

Sounds like they are ramping up more than anything, it's promising.

I could very well be wrong as well, but it looks like they expect next summer and winter to be crazy busy !

The biggest bottleneck for Jazz to get to next summer staffing is training. This includes instructor resources, line training resources, and simulator availability. AC recognized this on its own property and that is why it is ‘over staffed’ by 1100 pilots in June 2021. Many AC pilots are still awaiting training for the position they will need to fill next summer.

Jazz has probably figured out that the hundreds of training events need to commence sooner rather than later. This does not even factor in the training plan that will result from the upcoming equipment bid. Jazz has previously experienced what it looks like when training resources are running at 110%. It should be aware of the maximum monthly volume that the system can accommodate.

That means next summer training needs to start now.

[the-minister31]

The biggest bottleneck for Jazz to get to next summer staffing is training. This includes instructor resources, line training resources, and simulator availability. AC recognized this on its own property and that is why it is ‘over staffed’ by 1100 pilots in June 2021. Many AC pilots are still awaiting training for the position they will need to fill next summer.

Jazz has probably figured out that the hundreds of training events need to commence sooner rather than later. This does not even factor in the training plan that will result from the upcoming equipment bid. Jazz has previously experienced what it looks like when training resources are running at 110%. It should be aware of the maximum monthly volume that the system can accommodate.

That means next summer training needs to start now.

Do you think that means they will try to get most if not all pilot current before the next equipment bid? What I gather from the MEC emails is that the company said that training capacity won't affect flight operations and recalls. If the next equipment bid comes with people still inactive, it'll delay their recall I presume.

[rudder]

Do you think that means they will try to get most if not all pilot current before the next equipment bid? What I gather from the MEC emails is that the company said that training capacity won't affect flight operations and recalls. If the next equipment bid comes with people still inactive, it'll delay their recall I presume.

Peak flying levels for Jazz within the next 18 months will be summer 2022.

Jazz fleet is 114 aircraft. If the entire fleet were fully utilized and staffed at 6 crews per fin that would be approximately 1370 line pilots required. ‘Fully utilized’ would only manifest with flying levels equivalent to 2019. Unlikely to happen for summer 2022.

Required line pilots for summer 2022 will be something less than 1370 (1270? 1170?). All depends on what AC commercial comes up with. Attrition will be modest at best until AC starts hiring again (not likely prior to 2023).

There are still 361 Jazz pilots on layoff (some voluntary. Most involuntary). I don’t see Jazz needing all 361 for summer 2022. Having said that, not every Jazz pilot on layoff will return to Jazz. There are other options (CargoJet/Flair/Morningstar/etc).

All of this is just a guess. There has been zero guidance about the level of Express flying for summer 2022. Heck, there isn’t even any reliable guidance for Fall 2021.

[the-minister31]

I have to say that I am puzzeled as to why the MEC thinks there will be more recalls throughout the summer... We've got what, 1400 on property as of July 4th?

Anymore recalls would bring almost everybody on board, but with the very realistic math that you present, it's likely that Jazz is staffed for at least the next year or so.

To be quite honest. I hope you are wrong and I'll be back somewhere in the fall! haha. I can't wait to see planned flying for the summer/fall...