CPT.HarshColdReality wrote: ↑Sat Dec 12, 2020 5:37 pm
For my part, in all my social circles, everyone is employed, even pilot friends in non-aviation jobs. Everyone is ready to book a holiday as soon as the quarantine is lifted. Talk to your circles. This will be the best way to get a feel for the vibes out there. Ppl are sick and tired of lockdowns and want to travel and have the money to do so.
Call me crazy but I think the turn around is going to be almost as fast as the downturn. I think there will be some trigger event like a bunch of resorts offering blow out deals just as there is a collective belief that COVID is in the rearview, that will trigger an explosion of pent up demand. My guess and worth every penny you paid for it, is this will happen in early spring of 2022.
Popular media always over reacts, so right now it is all gloom and doom, as soon as the pendulum turns they will over react in the other direction and people will pile on airplanes because the media says COVID is over.
My other fearless projection is that the pilot shortage will come back "bigly" in late 2022. There has been a un-forecasted wave of early retirements at the top and I think a lot of the young zero to hero pilots who went straight from a buck 72 to a Q400 or RJ are not coming back. They will be established in a new career and are not interested in being a low seniority FO again.
The No 1 issue for Canada right now is IMO, not the airlines future, it is the future of the Air Traffic System. Nav Canada was just able to keep up with pre COVID traffic levels because of ACC and major tower airport controllers working crazy amounts of overtime. With no money coming in and no targeted government support; and total spending that is almost 75 % pure salary, they are starting to cut major muscle groups. It will take literally years to rebuild what has been cut. Stand by for crazy delays in getting a slot time, and asking for IFR training slots or VFR flight following ? UMM the answer will be a hearty PFO every time.