Best guess when hiring will happen

[dhc#]

What factors play into that 20% by spring 2022 happening? AC flying increasing?

Only if:

1. Increased flying over 90% plan, and/or

2. Increased attrition, particularly FO, and/or

3. Roster balancing (CA/FO)

These answers will not come for several months so the presence of a January 2022 equipment bid will indicate that one or more of these conditions exist.

Flair and Porter expansion should cause reason #2 to be a catalyst.

[Cavalier44]

What factors play into that 20% by spring 2022 happening? AC flying increasing?

Only if:

1. Increased flying over 90% plan, and/or

2. Increased attrition, particularly FO, and/or

3. Roster balancing (CA/FO)

These answers will not come for several months so the presence of a January 2022 equipment bid will indicate that one or more of these conditions exist.

Flair and Porter expansion should cause reason #2 to be a catalyst.

Perhaps, but I'd be somewhat doubtful of that.

I'm not sure why any Jazz FO would leave and go to Porter, especially since most of the Jazz FOs hired in the last 2-3 years are working there with the goal of flowing through to AC mainline. Even with flow-through being delayed until perhaps 2023, why take the risk and jump ship to what will essentially be a startup operation with an uncertain future?

With regard to Flair, my understanding is they've been hiring almost exclusively 737-rated or other Boeing-rated experienced captains. I would expect 5,000+ hours total time, probably more, with significant jet PIC experience at a minimum to be competitive there, at least until the industry rebounds further, and the pool of laid-off Sunwing/Transat/WestJet pilots diminishes as they are recalled to their respective airlines. Would there be any Jazz FOs that would meet these requirements? For Captains, what would be the motivation to make the move?

I'm not suggesting that there will be zero attrition, but I don't think Porter's or Flair's expansion will be as much of a driver for attrition as you're assuming.

[Inverted2]

Don’t forget there will still be 40-50 yearly retirements at Jazz for the foreseeable future. Not to mention we are an aging pilot fleet health wise so there’s always pilots going off on medical leaves which adds to the requirement.

[rudder]

Only if:

1. Increased flying over 90% plan, and/or

2. Increased attrition, particularly FO, and/or

3. Roster balancing (CA/FO)

These answers will not come for several months so the presence of a January 2022 equipment bid will indicate that one or more of these conditions exist.

Flair and Porter expansion should cause reason #2 to be a catalyst.

Perhaps, but I'd be somewhat doubtful of that.

I'm not sure why any Jazz FO would leave and go to Porter, especially since most of the Jazz FOs hired in the last 2-3 years are working there with the goal of flowing through to AC mainline. Even with flow-through being delayed until perhaps 2023, why take the risk and jump ship to what will essentially be a startup operation with an uncertain future?

With regard to Flair, my understanding is they've been hiring almost exclusively 737-rated or other Boeing-rated experienced captains. I would expect 5,000+ hours total time, probably more, with significant jet PIC experience at a minimum to be competitive there, at least until the industry rebounds further, and the pool of laid-off Sunwing/Transat/WestJet pilots diminishes as they are recalled to their respective airlines. Would there be any Jazz FOs that would meet these requirements? For Captains, what would be the motivation to make the move?

I'm not suggesting that there will be zero attrition, but I don't think Porter's or Flair's expansion will be as much of a driver for attrition as you're assuming.

There are experienced former SKV and Jazz pilots that were either CA or held a CA award pre-COVID that cannot hold it now or even in the near future. Some of them will move on. Some already have.

Unless your ultimate goal is AC via Jazz, there are other opportunities out there and more presenting themselves every day.

[RoAF-Mig21]

I'll add to this (posts above):

Some pilots, like myself, actually made a choice to stay at Jazz and not go over to AC Mainline. Like many of my colleagues I had the opportunity to go but after careful consideration, I decided against it. It just didn't add up for me and as a result I did not even apply. I have no intention of leaving Jazz until I retire, or decide to move back to Europe (if that's even in the cards).

Jazz is a great place to work and it offers me the lifestyle I want. To quote a training pilot here "If you're gonna get 'stuck' at a regional, Jazz is the place to 'get stuck' at".

[Skyfoxal]

Flair and Porter expansion should cause reason #2 to be a catalyst.

Perhaps, but I'd be somewhat doubtful of that.

I'm not sure why any Jazz FO would leave and go to Porter, especially since most of the Jazz FOs hired in the last 2-3 years are working there with the goal of flowing through to AC mainline. Even with flow-through being delayed until perhaps 2023, why take the risk and jump ship to what will essentially be a startup operation with an uncertain future?

With regard to Flair, my understanding is they've been hiring almost exclusively 737-rated or other Boeing-rated experienced captains. I would expect 5,000+ hours total time, probably more, with significant jet PIC experience at a minimum to be competitive there, at least until the industry rebounds further, and the pool of laid-off Sunwing/Transat/WestJet pilots diminishes as they are recalled to their respective airlines. Would there be any Jazz FOs that would meet these requirements? For Captains, what would be the motivation to make the move?

I'm not suggesting that there will be zero attrition, but I don't think Porter's or Flair's expansion will be as much of a driver for attrition as you're assuming.

There are experienced former SKV and Jazz pilots that were either CA or held a CA award pre-COVID that cannot hold it now or even in the near future. Some of them will move on. Some already have.

Unless your ultimate goal is AC via Jazz, there are other opportunities out there and more presenting themselves every day.

I came to jazz with a bunch of time and this is my case, I can’t afford to be a regional FO, without that upgrade I’m toast. Looking for other opportunities.

[link821]

Awfully quiet round here, no updates I guess?

[a2btrail]

Awfully quiet round here, no updates I guess?

LOL. We are all busy here a Jazz working away at Max blocks. Everyone is just focused on getting back in track. Glad to see things busy.

[RegionalPilot]

Awfully quiet round here, no updates I guess?

LOL. We are all busy here a Jazz working away at Max blocks. Everyone is just focused on getting back in track. Glad to see things busy.

Let’s recall/rehire those 2 cancelled/postponed ground schools from 2020

[a2btrail]

Awfully quiet round here, no updates I guess?

LOL. We are all busy here a Jazz working away at Max blocks. Everyone is just focused on getting back in track. Glad to see things busy.

Let’s recall/rehire those 2 cancelled/postponed ground schools from 2020

I hope that it happens for you! However atm all sims are running 24/7 as our training department has over 450+ training events that need to be completed over the next 14 months due to the recent bid shuffle. In the upcoming Q1 Equip Bid we will have a better idea on whether there is a requirement for further vacancies to be filled. All the best!

[dhc#]

Even when Jazz does resume hiring, new hires should expect long stints on reserve and little opportunity for an upgrade until movement to AC starts again whenever that will be.

[rudder]

There seem to be stronger indications that hiring may resume in Spring 2022.

How could that happen?

1. An Equipment Bid runs in January 2022
2. There are unbid FO vacancies in the bid
3. The company is not obliged to hire to fill these vacancies, but likely will.
4. The timeline to hire to fill these FO vacancies could span May-October 2022

Jazz mostly hires for attrition. Attrition levels for 2022 are expected be low due to nominal retirements and zero movement to AC. That of course could change and there could be attrition to other flying opportunities.

[Kosiw]

There seem to be stronger indications that hiring may resume in Spring 2022.

How could that happen?

1. An Equipment Bid runs in January 2022
2. There are unbid FO vacancies in the bid
3. The company is not obliged to hire to fill these vacancies, but likely will.
4. The timeline to hire to fill these FO vacancies could span May-October 2022

Jazz mostly hires for attrition. Attrition levels for 2022 are expected be low due to nominal retirements and zero movement to AC. That of course could change and there could be attrition to other flying opportunities.

Nice to hear some "potential" positive news !

[Inverted2]

Another wildcard to consider is if Porter actually starts getting Embrarers next year. I would think some of the junior 175 pilots might make the move over there. That could free up some spots at Jazz. I doubt AC will be hiring in 2022. Still have hundreds laid off over 18 months now.

[link821]

There seem to be stronger indications that hiring may resume in Spring 2022.

How could that happen?

1. An Equipment Bid runs in January 2022
2. There are unbid FO vacancies in the bid
3. The company is not obliged to hire to fill these vacancies, but likely will.
4. The timeline to hire to fill these FO vacancies could span May-October 2022

Jazz mostly hires for attrition. Attrition levels for 2022 are expected be low due to nominal retirements and zero movement to AC. That of course could change and there could be attrition to other flying opportunities.

Well may-oct 22 would be awesome! Guess by January we’ll know more. Thanks for the insight.

[Kosiw]

There seem to be stronger indications that hiring may resume in Spring 2022.

How could that happen?

1. An Equipment Bid runs in January 2022
2. There are unbid FO vacancies in the bid
3. The company is not obliged to hire to fill these vacancies, but likely will.
4. The timeline to hire to fill these FO vacancies could span May-October 2022

Jazz mostly hires for attrition. Attrition levels for 2022 are expected be low due to nominal retirements and zero movement to AC. That of course could change and there could be attrition to other flying opportunities.

Hey Rudder, curious as to what the "stronger indications" are that might push hiring by the spring of 22 ? You mentioned attrition...are you finding that Jazz FO's not returning for recall...or are there other reasons not mentioned above ?

[rudder]

Hey Rudder, curious as to what the "stronger indications" are that might push hiring by the spring of 22 ? You mentioned attrition...are you finding that Jazz FO's not returning for recall...or are there other reasons not mentioned above ?

Forecast Imbalanced rosters (CA vs FO) and it seems to be a common commentary circulating within the Jazz training dept at CAE.

Limiting factor/timing will be training resources available.

[link821]

Did the first class from March 2020 get training dates yet?

[Stayfly121]

Yeah

[link821]

Yeah

Do you know when?