Best guess when hiring will happen

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RegionalPilot
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Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by RegionalPilot »

So I’m curious to know everyone’s opinion about the future hiring at Jazz.

I’m amazed to see how much the express flying is ramping up in November. Is it fair to say that Jazz will be running ground schools before Christmas?
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the-minister31
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by the-minister31 »

RegionalPilot wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:57 pm So I’m curious to know everyone’s opinion about the future hiring at Jazz.

I’m amazed to see how much the express flying is ramping up in November. Is it fair to say that Jazz will be running ground schools before Christmas?
Considering the bid vacancies that were posted mid-august, not before spring or summer 2022. There are vacancies up to July 2022 in that bid. Some pilots that were recalled will only be in the classroom in december or january.

But bear in mind that that outlook might change drastically depending on the bid results that should be out by next week.
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RoAF-Mig21
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by RoAF-Mig21 »

I think the biggest challenge now is to schedule and train everyone already employed. There are lots of pilots that will be reduced (DH8-300 pilots) and hundreds that were recalled. The training department will be very, very busy. I'm waiting to see what aircraft I will be on and more importantly, the training date.

Eventually, if the industry heads in the right direction, we'll see hiring again. I couldn't even guess to be honest.
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link821
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by link821 »

I had reached out to HR about those of us whose ground schools had been canceled in March and April, Their response was they hope to be in contact by early 2022. As someone said above it will take till December/January at least to get everyone back from layoff.
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QKZXKV
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by QKZXKV »

It's really a guess here but I'd say 1 year. As stated, vacancies are shown for next summer months when there's typically very few ground schools. I'd say fall is when we COULD expect a new GS from Jazz.
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RoAF-Mig21
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by RoAF-Mig21 »

QKZXKV wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:24 am It's really a guess here but I'd say 1 year. As stated, vacancies are shown for next summer months when there's typically very few ground schools. I'd say fall is when we COULD expect a new GS from Jazz.
That's a decent guess. I tend to agree, but like yourself, I'm just estimating. Retirements will also continue, as will global passenger demand due to an exponential population growth. The pandemic altered this accelerated demand, but it will be back in full force once the pandemic is under control.
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by rudder »

RoAF-Mig21 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:20 am
QKZXKV wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:24 am It's really a guess here but I'd say 1 year. As stated, vacancies are shown for next summer months when there's typically very few ground schools. I'd say fall is when we COULD expect a new GS from Jazz.
That's a decent guess. I tend to agree, but like yourself, I'm just estimating. Retirements will also continue, as will global passenger demand due to an exponential population growth. The pandemic altered this accelerated demand, but it will be back in full force once the pandemic is under control.
Winter is low monthly block hour schedule for Express. Slows down from November to February. Peak months June-September.

Jazz will hire for the peak with 3-5 months lead time. Unlikely hiring in 2022 unless it is late 2022 in preparation for summer 2023 staffing or (highly unlikely) summer 2022 block hours exceed plan by such a significant amount that current pilot staffing not adequate - even with high block targets - requiring spring 2022 hiring. May depend on how many Jazz pilots declined recall and resigned.
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QKZXKV
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by QKZXKV »

RoAF-Mig21 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:20 am
QKZXKV wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:24 am It's really a guess here but I'd say 1 year. As stated, vacancies are shown for next summer months when there's typically very few ground schools. I'd say fall is when we COULD expect a new GS from Jazz.
That's a decent guess. I tend to agree, but like yourself, I'm just estimating. Retirements will also continue, as will global passenger demand due to an exponential population growth. The pandemic altered this accelerated demand, but it will be back in full force once the pandemic is under control.
yeah and while things may look a little bit bad virus wise in Canada and the US right now... there is a significant global decline in cases worldwide... It may give the other countries a chance to distribute vaccines and catch up which could bode well for travel rebounds next spring/summer.
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Kosiw
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by Kosiw »

rudder wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:32 am
RoAF-Mig21 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:20 am
QKZXKV wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:24 am It's really a guess here but I'd say 1 year. As stated, vacancies are shown for next summer months when there's typically very few ground schools. I'd say fall is when we COULD expect a new GS from Jazz.
That's a decent guess. I tend to agree, but like yourself, I'm just estimating. Retirements will also continue, as will global passenger demand due to an exponential population growth. The pandemic altered this accelerated demand, but it will be back in full force once the pandemic is under control.
Winter is low monthly block hour schedule for Express. Slows down from November to February. Peak months June-September.

Jazz will hire for the peak with 3-5 months lead time. Unlikely hiring in 2022 unless it is late 2022 in preparation for summer 2023 staffing or (highly unlikely) summer 2022 block hours exceed plan by such a significant amount that current pilot staffing not adequate - even with high block targets - requiring spring 2022 hiring. May depend on how many Jazz pilots declined recall and resigned.
When the results of the bid come out, will the number of those pilots who don't return be known to everyone ?
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by rudder »

Kosiw wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:37 pm
rudder wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:32 am
RoAF-Mig21 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:20 am

That's a decent guess. I tend to agree, but like yourself, I'm just estimating. Retirements will also continue, as will global passenger demand due to an exponential population growth. The pandemic altered this accelerated demand, but it will be back in full force once the pandemic is under control.
Winter is low monthly block hour schedule for Express. Slows down from November to February. Peak months June-September.

Jazz will hire for the peak with 3-5 months lead time. Unlikely hiring in 2022 unless it is late 2022 in preparation for summer 2023 staffing or (highly unlikely) summer 2022 block hours exceed plan by such a significant amount that current pilot staffing not adequate - even with high block targets - requiring spring 2022 hiring. May depend on how many Jazz pilots declined recall and resigned.
When the results of the bid come out, will the number of those pilots who don't return be known to everyone ?
Specifically? No.

System seniority lists are issued quarterly on the last day of the month. Next list Sept 30.

The difference between total pilots on June 30 and September 30 is comprised of SSP terminations, age 65 retirements, deaths, and Resignations.

Whatever number is attributed to resignations would be a guess, but the June-Sept Pilot differential should only be around 40-50 excluding resignations.
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the-minister31
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by the-minister31 »

Also, a few that won't return took LOAs will dalay resigning as much as they can to keep the door opened. This won't show up in the bid I presume.

Won't be a significant number though.

Either way, everyday we are getting closer to answers !
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Inverted2
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by Inverted2 »

rudder wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:57 pm
Kosiw wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:37 pm
rudder wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:32 am

Winter is low monthly block hour schedule for Express. Slows down from November to February. Peak months June-September.

Jazz will hire for the peak with 3-5 months lead time. Unlikely hiring in 2022 unless it is late 2022 in preparation for summer 2023 staffing or (highly unlikely) summer 2022 block hours exceed plan by such a significant amount that current pilot staffing not adequate - even with high block targets - requiring spring 2022 hiring. May depend on how many Jazz pilots declined recall and resigned.
When the results of the bid come out, will the number of those pilots who don't return be known to everyone ?
Specifically? No.

System seniority lists are issued quarterly on the last day of the month. Next list Sept 30.

The difference between total pilots on June 30 and September 30 is comprised of SSP terminations, age 65 retirements, deaths, and Resignations.

Whatever number is attributed to resignations would be a guess, but the June-Sept Pilot differential should only be around 40-50 excluding resignations.
You’re assuming the seniority list will be updated on Sept 30. :rolleyes:

The position list is a week overdue. Whoever does them is giving Transport Canada a run for their money in the slow department.
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by loudmouth »

Ya'll are lucky you get updated lists this often. One thing I miss about Jazz. Now it's a yearly list which becomes outdated in 1-2 months.
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Outlaw58
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by Outlaw58 »

All irrelevant at this particular time.

Right now, training is at full capacity and with the bid result, training will remain at full capacity well into 2022.

If/when the forecast down the road indicates that we both need extra pilots AND we can train them, that's when the hiring will resume. The bid result will give a pretty good insight as to how long the trg dept will be tied up for and by extension, will determine when new hire classes can be scheduled.

58
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QKZXKV
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by QKZXKV »

loudmouth wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:16 pm Ya'll are lucky you get updated lists this often. One thing I miss about Jazz. Now it's a yearly list which becomes outdated in 1-2 months.
same
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link821
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by link821 »

Anyone have a guess on how long it will take to to the 450 training events?
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by rudder »

link821 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:17 am Anyone have a guess on how long it will take to to the 450 training events?
Until July 2022.

I would assign a 20% likelihood that Jazz will require new-hire FO’s in spring/summer 2022 to balance rosters. That answer will come if another Bid runs in January 2022.
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QKZXKV
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by QKZXKV »

rudder wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:30 am
link821 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 8:17 am Anyone have a guess on how long it will take to to the 450 training events?
Until July 2022.

I would assign a 20% likelihood that Jazz will require new-hire FO’s in spring/summer 2022 to balance rosters. That answer will come if another Bid runs in January 2022.
And it won't be consistent across types too. The 175 will be very slow because that's the bulk of the training with no approved initial course as of yet and only 1 sim.
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link821
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by link821 »

What factors play into that 20% by spring 2022 happening? AC flying increasing?
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rudder
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Re: Best guess when hiring will happen

Post by rudder »

link821 wrote: Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:55 am What factors play into that 20% by spring 2022 happening? AC flying increasing?
Only if:

1. Increased flying over 90% plan, and/or

2. Increased attrition, particularly FO, and/or

3. Roster balancing (CA/FO)

These answers will not come for several months so the presence of a January 2022 equipment bid will indicate that one or more of these conditions exist.
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