Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

[Notapilot1]

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[CpnCrunch]

Regarding the plane heard: there might have been other planes there that day, so there's no guarantee that it was that particular plane that was heard.

One possibility is that they took a wrong turn at that point, turning right towards Wheeler Hut rather than left towards Rogers Pass. That's just speculation, but it might be worth at least driving up there to look around. (Note that even if they had gone the correct route, someone on the ground at Wheeler hut probably still would have heard the plane, so that isn't proof they flew the wrong way).

If they did fly in that direction, from what I can see looking at the charts it looks like a big box canyon. I don't think they would have been able to get through , and they would have had to turn back. If they couldn't turn back, they might have impacted the mountains somewhere around the 6000-7000ft level.

[Notapilot1]

I did just say that there could have been other planes flying around that day. We will check to see if that was looked into as well.

[Diadem]

Looking at the location of Wheeler Hut, which is also where I initially thought he might have made a wrong turn, something else came to mind: maybe he intentionally headed up the Illicillewaet Valley, thinking it was the Beaver Valley. Perhaps he didn't think the conditions ahead through Rogers Pass looked good, or maybe he just wanted to get through the mountains as quickly as possible before dark, and thinking he was further than he was he turned south to try to follow the valley towards the Columbia. If he took his first right instead of his second, perhaps because of some clouds and looming dusk, he would have been faced with abruptly-rising terrain.
Alternatively, I would be more inclined to think that if he missed a turned somewhere, it would be after the head of the pass, where the highway turns north towards Kinbasket Lake along the Beaver Valley. There's another valley that runs east-west on the far side of that turn, and if he missed the change in the highway's direction he might have continued up it to a dead end. That, to me, seems more likely than missing the turn at the Illicillewaet, since he would have had to go right instead of continuing straight ahead there. Of course, the information that's been released seems to indicate that the phone which was pinging off the towers never connected to the one at the head of the pass, which they would have flown right over if this hypothesis is correct; either it never connected as they passed over, or they never made it that far.

[cncpc]

I've taken the data from FlightAware and superimposed it on Google Earth and connected the dots and added the altitudes from the radar hits. The 3pm local Revelstoke weather at the airport is shown at the top. It indicates that wherever the beam hits, the base of the scattered layer was at 8450 ASL. If that layer extended to where they were at 3:05 they would have been in cloud or between layers, and they would have had the base of the overcast layer 200 feet above them. IF the cloud structure was similar to the airport. They would have been above the freezing level. But, there is no evidence they were in cloud. Scattered means between 3/8 and 1/2 of the sky. Alternatively it means that you can see the ground at least half the time, if that is what you are trying to do. It means that there should have been little difficulty in descending VFR below the scattered layer.

From 3:06 to 3:08 the aircraft descends 1400 feet. It seems to show a very high right downwind for 12, if I remember correctly. At reaching 3:09 it is heading northwest, but at 3:10 it is just abeam the button of 12 and 6500 feet above it. Heading east. Then it turns and It then goes up to the Big Eddy subdivision at 3:11 and that hit shows it having descended 100 feet and heading north, up the Mica Highway and towards the Revelstoke dam. Then in two minutes it seems to head back to an offset final for the airport, and then goes up beside the Coast Resort along the highway out of town, at 7000 ASL, and heading northeast.

Everything after 3:08 would seem to be happening in VFR conditions. Something was going on, and it was resolved by eventually setting out eastbound on the TCH.

What is missing is the content of any communications with Center for the flight following, and request for weather from Kamloops radio or position reporting.

Notapilot's info on the witness seeing a low level aircraft in low vis conditions is very likely connected to this airplane.

Is there any background as to why they had to be home on Saturday night on a weekend?

Some of the behaviour at Revelstoke might be taken to be some form of incapacitation, but if that were the case, surely they would have landed, instead of heading up the Pass.

I've also included the clear day view they would have had at 3:13. Notapilot, are you sure that the cell ping was at 3:30 and not 3:13, because that would mean they went up the pass and turned around and came back to Revy in 17 minutes.

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[Notapilot1]

cncpc- Thank you for doing all this, you have no idea how much I appreciate it. It gives a lot of insight. They had to leave on Saturday to be back to pick up the passenger's children.

I am double checking on the ping at Revy, trying to get an exact time. Can you see any reason for the "erratic" flying over Revelstoke? He tried to land there?

Do you think we could access the information regarding contact with Center for Flight? I understand there is no weather station at Roger's Pass and would have had to rely on the Kamloops station?

[Notapilot1]

Looking at the location of Wheeler Hut, which is also where I initially thought he might have made a wrong turn, something else came to mind: maybe he intentionally headed up the Illicillewaet Valley, thinking it was the Beaver Valley. Perhaps he didn't think the conditions ahead through Rogers Pass looked good, or maybe he just wanted to get through the mountains as quickly as possible before dark, and thinking he was further than he was he turned south to try to follow the valley towards the Columbia. If he took his first right instead of his second, perhaps because of some clouds and looming dusk, he would have been faced with abruptly-rising terrain.
Alternatively, I would be more inclined to think that if he missed a turned somewhere, it would be after the head of the pass, where the highway turns north towards Kinbasket Lake along the Beaver Valley. There's another valley that runs east-west on the far side of that turn, and if he missed the change in the highway's direction he might have continued up it to a dead end. That, to me, seems more likely than missing the turn at the Illicillewaet, since he would have had to go right instead of continuing straight ahead there. Of course, the information that's been released seems to indicate that the phone which was pinging off the towers never connected to the one at the head of the pass, which they would have flown right over if this hypothesis is correct; either it never connected as they passed over, or they never made it that far.

The Illicillewaet Glacier (I assume is in or near the Illicillewaet Valley because it doesn't show up on Google Maps) is very close to the area I have marked on the map.

Do you know what the other valley is? Or could you show me on a map?

[Notapilot1]

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[CpnCrunch]

Can you see any reason for the "erratic" flying over Revelstoke? He tried to land there?

You have to bear in mind that flightaware only shows data for about once per minute. Nav Canada might have higher resolution data. Anyway, when looking at the data it just looks like he is circling in a descent (it becomes pretty obvious that he's circling in a descent when you look at the heading, altitudes and speeds). Given the scattered cloud base at 7000ft, I think the most likely reason is that he was trying to get under those clouds. Possibly the clouds got more widespread at that point.

[Notapilot1]

Can you see any reason for the "erratic" flying over Revelstoke? He tried to land there?

You have to bear in mind that flightaware only shows data for about once per minute. Nav Canada might have higher resolution data. Anyway, when looking at the data it just looks like he is circling in a descent (it becomes pretty obvious that he's circling in a descent when you look at the heading, altitudes and speeds). Given the scattered cloud base at 7000ft, I think the most likely reason is that he was trying to get under those clouds. Possibly the clouds got more widespread at that point.

That makes sense. Once he got low enough for VFR he carried on to the TC route.

[cncpc]

cncp- Thank you for doing all this, you have no idea how much I appreciate it. It gives a lot of insight. They had to leave on Saturday to be back to pick up the passenger's children.

I am double checking on the ping at Revy, trying to get an exact time. Can you see any reason for the "erratic" flying over Revelstoke? He tried to land there?

Do you think we could access the information regarding contact with Center for Flight? I understand there is no weather station at Roger's Pass and would have had to rely on the Kamloops station?

The best I can say about the flight path around Revelstoke is that it may indicate uncertain intentions and the pilot being faced with different options, which eventually resolves to proceeding into Rogers Pass. That takes place in the context of them having just flown the leg between Penticton and Revelstoke, and encountering what was likely some challenging weather and possibly some pretty scary stuff if ice was encountered, or if it appeared they were trapped on top of an undercast. There is likely some aspect of a condition we call get home itis involved in this.

I am just one of many people on this forum who may have insight into what was going on at Revelstoke. There are dozens, if not hundreds of people on here who have been in similar situations, sometimes more than once. They may be able to offer other insights, or they may agree with my assessment, which is at best, within reason.

I would absolutely confirm and get every detail of that witness who saw an aircraft flying low in lowered visibility. Where did he see the aircraft, what did it look like, which direction was he/she travelling, which direction was the aircraft travelling, what was the weather behind him, the weather as he went farther. The time of day. If that is your friends, they are certainly in peril at that time and if they did not turn around, I expect the aircraft is somewhere near that spot. Even at 8000 feet, there is a feeling of little shoulder room at some points along that route. At low level there are quite a few places where a 180 degree turn may not be possible.

I do have some experience of doing work for lawyers on air crashes. I know that the TSB gives special access to families to keep them in the know. As the aircraft has not been found, the TSB may not yet be involved, but I think the general principle of special consideration for families may well apply. I take it you are not a family member, so I would advise that you get a letter from the family(s) which says you represent them for the purposes of receiving information they may be entitled to receive. From that point, you have to find out where the right Nav Canada facility is at and contact them. The Kamloops Flight Service Station, or whatever they are called these days, is probably your one stop for phone numbers. I expect they have saved any tapes they have.

There are Nav Canada people on this forum. They may be able to assist you.

[Notapilot1]

Yes, I am waiting on more details. There are so many people involved, and quite a bit of second hand information. I have also asked about the witness account at Canyon Hot Springs, and like you asked if he/she saw the color of the plane, what time it was, etc.

I haven't heard if the TSB is involved but I will definitely pass that along (as I have been with all of the other information, theories, and insight on this forum.) We will get in touch with the flight station as well.

[cncpc]

Looking at the location of Wheeler Hut, which is also where I initially thought he might have made a wrong turn, something else came to mind: maybe he intentionally headed up the Illicillewaet Valley, thinking it was the Beaver Valley. Perhaps he didn't think the conditions ahead through Rogers Pass looked good, or maybe he just wanted to get through the mountains as quickly as possible before dark, and thinking he was further than he was he turned south to try to follow the valley towards the Columbia. If he took his first right instead of his second, perhaps because of some clouds and looming dusk, he would have been faced with abruptly-rising terrain.
Alternatively, I would be more inclined to think that if he missed a turned somewhere, it would be after the head of the pass, where the highway turns north towards Kinbasket Lake along the Beaver Valley. There's another valley that runs east-west on the far side of that turn, and if he missed the change in the highway's direction he might have continued up it to a dead end. That, to me, seems more likely than missing the turn at the Illicillewaet, since he would have had to go right instead of continuing straight ahead there. Of course, the information that's been released seems to indicate that the phone which was pinging off the towers never connected to the one at the head of the pass, which they would have flown right over if this hypothesis is correct; either it never connected as they passed over, or they never made it that far.

The Illicillewaet Glacier (I assume is in or near the Illicillewaet Valley because it doesn't show up on Google Maps) is very close to the area I have marked on the map.

Do you know what the other valley is? Or could you show me on a map?

The valley east of Illicillewaet is that of the Duncan River, which flows down to Duncan Lake, above Kaslo. I've marked it on red. They would have needed at least 9000 feet to clear the glacier area barrier, and there would be no point to go there if they could make 9000 feet.

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[Notapilot1]

cncpc- Would an icing map of the area help?

[cncpc]

Yes, I am waiting on more details. There are so many people involved, and quite a bit of second hand information. I have also asked about the witness account at Canyon Hot Springs, and like you asked if he/she saw the color of the plane, what time it was, etc.

I haven't heard if the TSB is involved but I will definitely pass that along (as I have been with all of the other information, theories, and insight on this forum.) We will get in touch with the flight station as well.

If this low level sighting in bad weather happened at Canyon Hot Springs, the chances of them making it much farther are not good. There is a rise in elevation of some 2000 feet between the Hot Springs and the Ross Peak area, and if ceiling was forcing them down low, they would likely have run out of room as they went east, if that cloud structure remained going east. It may not have.

There is an off chance a road landing was attempted and went over a shoulder. I've done that.

[Notapilot1]

The witness at Canyon Springs said the plane was white (but that the weather was bad, and it could have looked white.) The plan was flying very low, just above the tree tops, and was heading East. I am waiting on a time for this sighting.

The ping in Revelstoke was at 3:13 pm, you were correct.

Snowmobiles also heard him at the location below between 3:20 - 3:40

We did talk about a highway landing as well although, looking at the search maps it looks as if they have searched all along the TC. I am still waiting on a map to show all cell phone pings.

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[cncpc]

This is a reasonable approximation of the view at tree top level at Canyon. It is hard to believe that witness sighting.

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[Notapilot1]

I guess you have to take witness sightings with a grain of salt. The time of the sighting was 3:30 pm.

[Notapilot1]

This is a reasonable approximation of the view at tree top level at Canyon. It is hard to believe that witness sighting.

canyon.jpg

Is this due to the elevation of the trees? Or why don't you believe that?

[Diadem]

The Illicillewaet Glacier (I assume is in or near the Illicillewaet Valley because it doesn't show up on Google Maps) is very close to the area I have marked on the map.

Do you know what the other valley is? Or could you show me on a map?

The Illicillewaet River runs down from the Illicillewaet Glacier, past Wheeler Hut, under the Trans-Canada, and down to Revelstoke, so that's the one you were looking at already. I was just speculating as to why he might have turned south there if that was where he turned.
The valley to which I was referring is this one: https://goo.gl/maps/hyTrX5V3HC82 If he was following that short section of the TC eastbound before it turns north and missed the curve, the natural course would be to continue up that valley while trying to find the road because it's roughly the same track.