Pilot shortage “slowing down “

[marakii]

Just asking whether the pilot hiring is starting to slow down or get worse before it really halts.
Thanks

[schnitzel2k3]

Companies have been readjusting their hiring strategies to compensate long term so it will eventually slow down in Canada.

Considering Navajo captains at barely cresting 1000hr TT, I think the going is pretty good still. Why Ho captains are a good measure, I don't know.

For now the spring hiring boom is done. There should be fall hiring boom associated with AC which should create some more movement.

S.

[Xonga013]

Is there really a pilot shortage? I feel like there is a pay shortage. So many companies supposedly desperate for pilots yet not willing to pay livable wages. They rather park airplanes than pay someone. Don’t get it (especially the big companies that can afford it)

[2112]

What he said ^ I left my last job because the owner was too cheap to raise wages or improve working conditions, as a result he lost all but 2 pilots sold two planes and parked another. Don’t kid yourself a lot of 703 operations would rather close up shop than give you what your worth.

[C.W.E.]

Don’t kid yourself a lot of 703 operations would rather close up shop than give you what your worth.

From a business point of view that does not make any sense.

Maybe they just can not afford to pay more?

[upnatem]

Don’t kid yourself a lot of 703 operations would rather close up shop than give you what your worth.

From a business point of view that does not make any sense.

Maybe they just can not afford to pay more?

C'mon now .. Everyone knows (or at least many pilots seem to think) that small aviation operators make kazillions of dollars in excess of operating costs. So shutting down and turning off all that profit is the only logical thing to do when staff want "just a little bit" more money.

[2112]

It shouldn’t make sense but I watched it happen, As far as not being able to pay more I call BS when a new truck, boat or other toy show up at the hangar every couple months but maybe that’s just my sense of entitlement shining through. I mean who doesn’t like working 20 days straight and not being paid overtime “because your salary covers it” total BS. Anyways I’m just ranting now it’s really no skin off my back jobs are easy to come by nowadays. These companies who don’t keep up will be hurting until things go back to normal.

[schnitzel2k3]

It shouldn’t make sense but I watched it happen, As far as not being able to pay more I call BS when a new truck, boat or other toy show up at the hangar every couple months but maybe that’s just my sense of entitlement shining through. I mean who doesn’t like working 20 days straight and not being paid overtime “because your salary covers it” total BS. Anyways I’m just ranting now it’s really no skin off my back jobs are easy to come by nowadays. These companies who don’t keep up will be hurting until things go back to normal.

It won't take long, there is a finite amount of baby boomers retiring (it may seem like a lot) and all you need is one aviation global recession (which may or may not happen based on fluctuating oil prices right now), and you can set the industry back 10 years.

A lot of this hiring is driven from those two factors, but primarily the retiring of an aging workforce. The current growth/expansion we are seeing in China and the U.S is being driven by profits based on suppressed oil prices and the ability to tap into cheaper markets with the same aircraft.

It's tough to comment without direct experience on small regional operators and why they refuse to pay more. You have to imagine unless they reinvested their earnings to get newer birds, their costs have increased to maintain older airframes.

S.

[daedalusx]

It shouldn’t make sense but I watched it happen, As far as not being able to pay more I call BS when a new truck, boat or other toy show up at the hangar every couple months but maybe that’s just my sense of entitlement shining through. I mean who doesn’t like working 20 days straight and not being paid overtime “because your salary covers it” total BS. Anyways I’m just ranting now it’s really no skin off my back jobs are easy to come by nowadays. These companies who don’t keep up will be hurting until things go back to normal.

It won't take long, there is a finite amount of baby boomers retiring (it may seem like a lot) and all you need is one aviation global recession (which may or may not happen based on fluctuating oil prices right now), and you can set the industry back 10 years.

A lot of this hiring is driven from those two factors, but primarily the retiring of an aging workforce. The current growth/expansion we are seeing in China and the U.S is being driven by profits based on suppressed oil prices and the ability to tap into cheaper markets with the same aircraft.

It's tough to comment without direct experience on small regional operators and why they refuse to pay more. You have to imagine unless they reinvested their earnings to get newer birds, their costs have increased to maintain older airframes.

S.

You're absolutely right on both count.

Also as long as you can be right seater on a 705 airliner with a pulse, 250 hours and a commercial, there will never be a 'shortage' of pilot.

[schnitzel2k3]

It shouldn’t make sense but I watched it happen, As far as not being able to pay more I call BS when a new truck, boat or other toy show up at the hangar every couple months but maybe that’s just my sense of entitlement shining through. I mean who doesn’t like working 20 days straight and not being paid overtime “because your salary covers it” total BS. Anyways I’m just ranting now it’s really no skin off my back jobs are easy to come by nowadays. These companies who don’t keep up will be hurting until things go back to normal.

It won't take long, there is a finite amount of baby boomers retiring (it may seem like a lot) and all you need is one aviation global recession (which may or may not happen based on fluctuating oil prices right now), and you can set the industry back 10 years.

A lot of this hiring is driven from those two factors, but primarily the retiring of an aging workforce. The current growth/expansion we are seeing in China and the U.S is being driven by profits based on suppressed oil prices and the ability to tap into cheaper markets with the same aircraft.

It's tough to comment without direct experience on small regional operators and why they refuse to pay more. You have to imagine unless they reinvested their earnings to get newer birds, their costs have increased to maintain older airframes.

S.

You're absolutely right on both count.

Also as long as you can be right seater on a 705 airliner with a pulse, 250 hours and a commercial, there will never be a 'shortage' of pilot.

Yeah, if we instituted that 1500 hr rule like they have in the U.S for regional work, I think the Canadian airlines would be in more dire straights as they would have to develop a more short term plan.

But other than the odd collegiate pilot that gets their cadet spot at SWG, JZ, GGN, et al, most of these places are still seeing pilots between 1000-1500 hrs. Anything connected with Air Canada is going to need 1000hrs min to fly 705.

The question is, and they don't have any published stats that I've seen, is how many +1000 hr pilots are there in the market that already do not work for an airline.

S.

[digits_]

Some companies read this topic and posted a bunch of ads

[rookiepilot]

Add the Ontario NDP telling us they will stick the business community. "Just a little more"
Carbon taxes. "Pay a little more"
Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"
And on and on.

Do you really blame some marginally profitable 703 owner for deciding to hang it up?

That is his / Her right.

[schnitzel2k3]

Add the Ontario NDP telling us they will stick the business community. "Just a little more"
Carbon taxes. "Pay a little more"
Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"
And on and on.

Do you really blame some marginally profitable 703 owner for deciding to hang it up?

That is his / Her right.

Between that and the near constant apologizing...fak we get it JT, you're Canadian, get to work. We've lost our backbone politically.

Rock and a hard place Rockie, I think federally though we are in a better place candidate wise next election. Provincially not so much.

I think if the little guys could trust the pilots staying longer than 6 months they might be able to pay more. Last ad our company put out netted rezis with most pilots on their 3-4 job in less than three years (all of which had type ratings...).

The cost of a revolving door and lost revenue is tough to maintain. Going to court constantly doesn't help either.

Integrity is a lost value nowadays, as everyone clamors for the top.

S.

[mixturerich]

If the projections are accurate we are going to continue to see ongoing hiring. However within each year we are going to seasonal variations and small “waves” up and down.

[rookiepilot]

Add the Ontario NDP telling us they will stick the business community. "Just a little more"
Carbon taxes. "Pay a little more"
Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"
And on and on.

Do you really blame some marginally profitable 703 owner for deciding to hang it up?

That is his / Her right.

Between that and the near constant apologizing...fak we get it JT, you're Canadian, get to work. We've lost our backbone politically.

Rock and a hard place Rockie, I think federally though we are in a better place candidate wise next election. Provincially not so much.

I think if the little guys could trust the pilots staying longer than 6 months they might be able to pay more. Last ad our company put out netted rezis with most pilots on their 3-4 job in less than three years (all of which had type ratings...).

The cost of a revolving door and lost revenue is tough to maintain. Going to court constantly doesn't help either.

Integrity is a lost value nowadays, as everyone clamors for the top.

S.

I am personally also very tired of the persistent demonization of the small business community as a popular Canadian narrative, one encouraged by the government.

In many other counties, running a successful small company that employs people, is something to aspire to and is a respected choice.

Here in this country, the assumption is ALL small business owners are disgustingly rich crooks that cheat the government and abuse their employees.

I get it.

[schnitzel2k3]

Add the Ontario NDP telling us they will stick the business community. "Just a little more"
Carbon taxes. "Pay a little more"
Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"
And on and on.

Do you really blame some marginally profitable 703 owner for deciding to hang it up?

That is his / Her right.

Between that and the near constant apologizing...fak we get it JT, you're Canadian, get to work. We've lost our backbone politically.

Rock and a hard place Rockie, I think federally though we are in a better place candidate wise next election. Provincially not so much.

I think if the little guys could trust the pilots staying longer than 6 months they might be able to pay more. Last ad our company put out netted rezis with most pilots on their 3-4 job in less than three years (all of which had type ratings...).

The cost of a revolving door and lost revenue is tough to maintain. Going to court constantly doesn't help either.

Integrity is a lost value nowadays, as everyone clamors for the top.

S.

I am personally also very tired of the persistent demonization of the small business community as a popular Canadian narrative, one encouraged by the government.

In many other counties, running a successful small company that employs people, is something to aspire to and is a respected choice.

Here in this country, the assumption is ALL small business owners are disgustingly rich crooks that cheat the government and abuse their employees.

I get it.

I had a nice rant, but I think we agree Rockie, so I edited it.

Damn it Rockie, you got me fired up...

S.

[JohnnyHotRocks]

When Big Red has more resumes than they can deal with at a whopping $50,000 a year, there is no pilot shortage.

[C.W.E.]

I think if the little guys could trust the pilots staying longer than 6 months they might be able to pay more. Last ad our company put out netted rezis with most pilots on their 3-4 job in less than three years (all of which had type ratings...).

If a pilot applied to me for a job and they had a history of changing jobs that fast there would be a iron clad pro rated bond to cover any loss if they left before the bond time expired.

Assuming of course there were not any reliable candidates available.

[Diadem]

Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"

I'm having a hard time substantiating this claim, considering the federal corporate tax rate is unchanged since 2014: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/corporate-tax-rate It also looks like it's only 0.4% higher than the all-time low since 1981. If you're talking about personal taxes, it's true that a new top tax bracket was created, but simultaneously the second bracket was lowered, which benefited everyone making more than $46000/year.

[confusedalot]

When Big Red has more resumes than they can deal with at a whopping $50,000 a year, there is no pilot shortage.

I learned through many sources that the 50K goes to 80K in four years, and then continues to climb well over the 100k and 200K mark, finishing off at 300K.

Out of curiosity, since I am at the senior and retired end of the business, what type of salaries are we looking at in non airline flying these days? Curious because I can confirm that I was paid crap wages even way back in the day, and wages ever so slowly and painfully went up a little bit over time. Never got air canada when it was my turn, however, if I did, and confirmed by peers of the day who actually got it, I would be, and they are, net worth individuals counted in the multiple millions.

People know that. Not ideal for sure, but you have to play the long game, rarely does anyone become wealthy overnight in any occupation.

Played the non big airline game by circumstance (even big planes), overall financial situation better than lower middle/poverty class, nowhere near the financial independence of a major airline employee.

[matthew.oommen]

I think if the little guys could trust the pilots staying longer than 6 months they might be able to pay more. Last ad our company put out netted rezis with most pilots on their 3-4 job in less than three years (all of which had type ratings...).

If a pilot applied to me for a job and they had a history of changing jobs that fast there would be a iron clad pro rated bond to cover any loss if they left before the bond time expired.

Assuming of course there were not any reliable candidates available.

Just to point it out since a few of us are thinking it. If you are hiring people that you are pretty certain won’t stick it out more than a year, either ,
- they are unreliable and you are scooping the bottom of the barrel (meaning pilot shortage is a thing)
- something is wrong with your wages or working conditions and he/she won’t be happy there for more than a year (and you probably know it already, but might not want to make any changes in regards to it)
- you like to hand out training bonds (which actually makes some sense business wise, but screws the pilot if the training bond lasted more than a year and he actually just wants to progress in his career as quickly as possible in these ridiculous times of flying 705 machines as a 1000 hour wonder.)
Don’t mean to stir the pot. I have never worked for a company with a training bond, but I had many friends that did and were stuck working ridiculous flying jobs (10 % flying , 90 % BS) longer than necessary, and it was sad to see them struggle for many years, just to get a decent reference to get outta there. Times sure have changed though.

[schnitzel2k3]

Trudeau raising taxes, AND calling all small businesses tax crooks. "Pay your fair share"

I'm having a hard time substantiating this claim, considering the federal corporate tax rate is unchanged since 2014: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/corporate-tax-rate It also looks like it's only 0.4% higher than the all-time low since 1981. If you're talking about personal taxes, it's true that a new top tax bracket was created, but simultaneously the second bracket was lowered, which benefited everyone making more than $46000/year.

He may have misspoke regarding Trudeau and taxes and meant to reference Wynne with regards to minimum wage increases and closing small business tax exemption loopholes.

It's been a bit of a farce all the way around, with not a lot of viable options.

S.

[schnitzel2k3]

When Big Red has more resumes than they can deal with at a whopping $50,000 a year, there is no pilot shortage.

I learned through many sources that the 50K goes to 80K in four years, and then continues to climb well over the 100k and 200K mark, finishing off at 300K.

Out of curiosity, since I am at the senior and retired end of the business, what type of salaries are we looking at in non airline flying these days? Curious because I can confirm that I was paid crap wages even way back in the day, and wages ever so slowly and painfully went up a little bit over time. Never got air canada when it was my turn, however, if I did, and confirmed by peers of the day who actually got it, I would be, and they are, net worth individuals counted in the multiple millions.

People know that. Not ideal for sure, but you have to play the long game, rarely does anyone become wealthy overnight in any occupation.

Played the non big airline game by circumstance (even big planes), overall financial situation better than lower middle/poverty class, nowhere near the financial independence of a major airline employee.

What type of flying and machines did you retire on confused?

In corporate, particularly under the CBAA section, some guys were hinting at well over 200k as line captains. Likely ultra long flying, similar to what you'd see at Air Canada for the upper echelon pay. Don't know what type of schedule or benefits are associated.

It's easy to say AC is the be all end all and long game, but for many (not all), that lifestyle can jade their perception of aviation. I know some happy characters, and some very bitter characters at AC.

Having said that, my experience in corporate is that I've met a lot of happy campers who wouldn't dream of crossing over. It's just different, not necessarily better, just different.

S.

[JohnnyHotRocks]

I would love to retire a multimillionaire. Too old to jump to AC unless they start hiring DEC again...also think 80hrs a month would kill me!

[Boreas]

When Big Red has more resumes than they can deal with at a whopping $50,000 a year, there is no pilot shortage.

I learned through many sources that the 50K goes to 80K in four years, and then continues to climb well over the 100k and 200K mark, finishing off at 300K.

Out of curiosity, since I am at the senior and retired end of the business, what type of salaries are we looking at in non airline flying these days? Curious because I can confirm that I was paid crap wages even way back in the day, and wages ever so slowly and painfully went up a little bit over time. Never got air canada when it was my turn, however, if I did, and confirmed by peers of the day who actually got it, I would be, and they are, net worth individuals counted in the multiple millions.

People know that. Not ideal for sure, but you have to play the long game, rarely does anyone become wealthy overnight in any occupation.

Played the non big airline game by circumstance (even big planes), overall financial situation better than lower middle/poverty class, nowhere near the financial independence of a major airline employee.

Not really saying much... If you're a baby boomer and you aren't worth a couple of million, you gone done faked up.