Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by Alcoholism »

Rudder and Cavalier, I get what you guys are saying and makes sense, however, there is no requirement to have a common type at a specific company. Look south of the boarder plenty of regionals all operating the same equipment. Yes the regionals are united under ALPA banner, but it is still advantageous for CR to keep everyone separate incase one of those groups strikes (a la Jazz a dozen yrs ago). Pilots aren't that united to strike at company B when company A is striking during negots. Show of solidarity on days off, that's it. You can bet each negot will be a process by each company to keep costs down for CR, just look at GGN now, and soon SR, there's will drag out, it's inevitable.

My crystal booze bottle says no mergers, new aircraft yes, which'll be Q, RJ, and a good deal on E175E2's.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by speedah »

I know that the Sky Regional Q400’s that jazz took possession of will be returned in the near future. They will be replaced by something, maybe 900’s ?
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by Lightchop »

livenet001001 wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:19 am
rudder wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am
Radiocaster wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:24 am Is also heard from the Jazz MEC’s mouth, that “the classic is not the plane of the future for our pilot group”. Wich is pointing towards possible loss of that type in order to operate more jets.
That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Can someone explain why AC would merge Express partners? Right now you have GGN and Sky both negotiating contracts in a few years Jazz is in negotiations. The entire diversification play was to ensure no one player in Express could cripple the entire feed into mainline. Add on to this the bonus of playing Express partners off of each other to drive costs down it is a win win for AC. Never in feed jeopardy and a competitive structure to bid for new work. I do see some admin savings etc if there was a merge but AC would be giving up 100% of the control they have in pricing pressure and put themselves at jeopardy for a feed shutoff in the case of labour disruption. Not to mention the millions they have pumped into GGN and Sky to build this flexibility.

To me the bigger question is how big is Express after the A220 and Rouge take their kicks at the work. How do ULCC's change the Express platform? I think these are more real issues to address than any change in structure.
Why? Well GGN can barely find DEC applicants to fill their seats so...
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by livenet001001 »

Lightchop wrote: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:53 pm
livenet001001 wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:19 am
rudder wrote: Fri Nov 30, 2018 9:11 am

That is an interesting comment considering the bet that was placed in 2010 by CHR (via the CPA) and the Jazz MEC (via the collective agreement) to maintain the Dash 8 in the fleet plan in substantial numbers out to 2025. The decision to extend the service life of the Dash 8 300’s likely netted CHR tens of millions in revenue on the MRO side. And in the years that followed that decision, Jazz watched 14 CRJ’s (and routes) be transferred to GGN and the 15 mainline E175’s moved to SKY with the subsequent addition of 10 175’s. Seems the bet that was placed on aging Dash 8’s may have come at the expense of the Jazz share of the jet side of the Express portfolio.

Once again - circumstances change. Plans change. If the Jazz fleet is to undergo yet another transformation, it will be at the request of AC. The leverage for CHR and the Jazz pilots is they both have signed deals out to 2025 regarding minimum fleet size. Any changes must be mutually agreed (notwithstanding the substitution provisions of the CPA).
Can someone explain why AC would merge Express partners? Right now you have GGN and Sky both negotiating contracts in a few years Jazz is in negotiations. The entire diversification play was to ensure no one player in Express could cripple the entire feed into mainline. Add on to this the bonus of playing Express partners off of each other to drive costs down it is a win win for AC. Never in feed jeopardy and a competitive structure to bid for new work. I do see some admin savings etc if there was a merge but AC would be giving up 100% of the control they have in pricing pressure and put themselves at jeopardy for a feed shutoff in the case of labour disruption. Not to mention the millions they have pumped into GGN and Sky to build this flexibility.

To me the bigger question is how big is Express after the A220 and Rouge take their kicks at the work. How do ULCC's change the Express platform? I think these are more real issues to address than any change in structure.
Why? Well GGN can barely find DEC applicants to fill their seats so...

Maybe but that is not AC’s problem. That is a Georgian problem. Give credit where it is due, as much as it pains me to say, Georgians completions is rock solid and that would be the best indicator if they were actually short pilots or just feeding the machine. If they can feed the machine why would AC care?

I also think Sky is the likely player for change, but I don’t even see that in the next few years.

All the CPA come due within 36 months of each other (I think) by that time the fate and impact of the ulcc will be known, the 220 will have found its place, Sky and Georgian will be used to ALPA and Jazz will have a new contract. To me that may be a time to put everything in a bag and shake it up.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder »

AC needs an Express plan that will work from 2019-2028. It needs to know that there will be labour stability, operational reliability, cost certainty, and fleet modification flexibility within the Express network.

If AC has all of this already then status quo will prevail. If not - watch for change.

AC is firing on all cylinders during a time of unprecedented growth. CR will likely not tolerate any Express partner becoming a weak link in the expansion chain.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by goingnowherefast »

You get what you pay for. Bargain labour costs will result in labour uncertainty.

I wouldn't be too worried about GGN striking and then losing the AC contract. Jazz or the next guy will just pick up the flying and everybody will still have a job.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by livenet001001 »

rudder wrote: Sun Dec 02, 2018 9:36 pm AC needs an Express plan that will work from 2019-2028. It needs to know that there will be labour stability, operational reliability, cost certainty, and fleet modification flexibility within the Express network.

If AC has all of this already then status quo will prevail. If not - watch for change.

AC is firing on all cylinders during a time of unprecedented growth. CR will likely not tolerate any Express partner becoming a weak link in the expansion chain.

Agree things will change but I don't see it being a shift in diversification. Fleet yes. Size of Express yes. Diversification was set up to protect feed into mainline any consolidation erodes that protection. Diversification also keeps costs in check as each Express player sharpens their pencils to get new/more work.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by dhc# »

Chorus must be looking beyond the CPA's with their diversification/expansion into the regional aircraft leasing market and buying Voyageur over the past few yrs... not having all their "eggs in one basket", does it mean they see something ominous regarding the relationship with AC and the Express brand post 2025 ?
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by goingnowherefast »

Most companies want to expand and diversify. They had a good thing going with AC, but getting squeezed more and more by Sky/GGN, so naturally looking elsewhere. More lucrative markets out there too.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by Rowdy »

dhc# wrote: Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:51 pm Chorus must be looking beyond the CPA's with their diversification/expansion into the regional aircraft leasing market and buying Voyageur over the past few yrs... not having all their "eggs in one basket", does it mean they see something ominous regarding the relationship with AC and the Express brand post 2025 ?

Quite the contrary, diversification and other revenue streams allows Chorus via Jazz to remain competitive in the regional market. It enables them to provide a specific level of service and capacity stability for AC. Nothing ominous post 2025. I'm fairly certain the current negotiations are to establish an even longer program as an express carrier.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder »

So, considering the developments of the past two weeks - does anybody want to update their predictions?
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by av8ts »

Won’t happen
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder »

av8ts wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:23 am Won’t happen
And the disappearance of GGN as an a Express carrier was not going to happen. GGN was going to get CRJ900’s and expand. That WAS the AC plan. Wonder what changed?

I will go with 50/50 that there will be just 1 Express operating certificate within 24 months.

What just happened? In the jump ball between 3 carriers for incremental 76 jets in the Express portfolio, Jazz was just assigned 14 more aircraft. And along with that, one Express carrier was erased from the map.

In 2008 Jazz operated approximately 96% of the Express ASM’s. By 2018 that was down to 70%. With the recent announcement, Jazz will return to 80%+ by the end of 2019. And by the end of 2020 Jazz will be operating 35 CRJ900’s representing just under 60% of the 76 seat Express jet seat capacity. Add in the 15 CRJ200’s and that represents 65% of the Express jet seat capacity. Assuming that extending the service life of the CRJ200 to 2025 is a little far fetched, then those aircraft will eventually be replaced by 76 seat jets on some ratio basis using the substitution language in the CPA. These replacement jet aircraft will also operated by Jazz. And finally, Jazz has a MINIMUM fleet guarantee of 80 large regional aircraft for the period of 2026-2035.

So unless AC has a plan to grow the overall Express 76 seat jet fleet above 70 fins (possible), or to have Jazz operating 80 Q400’s from 2026-2035 (unlikely), the opportunities for either remaining Express operator to add incremental 76 seat jets from their respective current Express fleet plans are limited. And every Express pilot is waiting for the RRA/A220 shoe to drop in terms of routes over the next couple of years.

The older 175’s need to be replaced. Perhaps not in 2019/2020, but most certainly by 2025 and I predict sooner. Best outcome is 1:1 with either an E2 jet or whatever product is comparable. Worst outcome is that RRA/A220’s trigger a contraction in the Express 76 seat jet fleet. Can the Jazz 76 seat jet fleet be reduced prior to 2025? Nope. Wonder who that leaves?

Logic dictates that none of the reasons that provoked AC to go with the Express portfolio strategy still exist. CR got exactly what he wanted from both CHR and Jazz ALPA. He has a lock on those conditions at Jazz to 2035. And the Skyregional CPA has an early termination clause just like the one that was used on GGN. That represents flexibility for AC should the trend of declining Express inventory continue. So what further changes might that trigger in Express fleet and capacity for 2020-2025? I guess we can all wait to find out.

Better the remaining Express pilots put their heads together and create a win-win scenario. There is no reason that the Express pilots cannot demonstrate that further consolidation represents a superior outcome for AC, and for their constituents. The CHR/AC/ALPA agreement recently announced demonstrates that the AC perspective has changed, and that Express pilot job security is fleeting absent solid protections in both the CPA and the pilot collective agreement. Only one Express pilot group has such guarantees enshrined in their collective agreement. Do you believe those guarantees will be available at the other Express pilot bargaining table? I think it unlikely. Time will tell.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by teacher »

rudder wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:17 am
av8ts wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:23 am Won’t happen
And the disappearance of GGN as an a Express carrier was not going to happen. GGN was going to get CRJ900’s and expand. That WAS the AC plan. Wonder what changed?

I will go with 50/50 that there will be just 1 Express operating certificate within 24 months.

What just happened? In the jump ball between 3 carriers for incremental 76 jets in the Express portfolio, Jazz was just assigned 14 more aircraft. And along with that, one Express carrier was erased from the map.

In 2008 Jazz operated approximately 96% of the Express ASM’s. By 2018 that was down to 70%. With the recent announcement, Jazz will return to 80%+ by the end of 2019. And by the end of 2020 Jazz will be operating 35 CRJ900’s representing just under 60% of the 76 seat Express jet seat capacity. Add in the 15 CRJ200’s and that represents 65% of the Express jet seat capacity. Assuming that extending the service life of the CRJ200 to 2025 is a little far fetched, then those aircraft will eventually be replaced by 76 seat jets on some ratio basis using the substitution language in the CPA. These replacement jet aircraft will also operated by Jazz. And finally, Jazz has a MINIMUM fleet guarantee of 80 large regional aircraft for the period of 2026-2035.

So unless AC has a plan to grow the overall Express 76 seat jet fleet above 70 fins (possible), or to have Jazz operating 80 Q400’s from 2026-2035 (unlikely), the opportunities for either remaining Express operator to add incremental 76 seat jets from their respective current Express fleet plans are limited. And every Express pilot is waiting for the RRA/A220 shoe to drop in terms of routes over the next couple of years.

The older 175’s need to be replaced. Perhaps not in 2019/2020, but most certainly by 2025 and I predict sooner. Best outcome is 1:1 with either an E2 jet or whatever product is comparable. Worst outcome is that RRA/A220’s trigger a contraction in the Express 76 seat jet fleet. Can the Jazz 76 seat jet fleet be reduced prior to 2025? Nope. Wonder who that leaves?

Logic dictates that none of the reasons that provoked AC to go with the Express portfolio strategy still exist. CR got exactly what he wanted from both CHR and Jazz ALPA. He has a lock on those conditions at Jazz to 2035. And the Skyregional CPA has an early termination clause just like the one that was used on GGN. That represents flexibility for AC should the trend of declining Express inventory continue. So what further changes might that trigger in Express fleet and capacity for 2020-2025? I guess we can all wait to find out.

Better the remaining Express pilots put their heads together and create a win-win scenario. There is no reason that the Express pilots cannot demonstrate that further consolidation represents a superior outcome for AC, and for their constituents. The CHR/AC/ALPA agreement recently announced demonstrates that the AC perspective has changed, and that Express pilot job security is fleeting absent solid protections in both the CPA and the pilot collective agreement. Only one Express pilot group has such guarantees enshrined in their collective agreement. Do you believe those guarantees will be available at the other Express pilot bargaining table? I think it unlikely. Time will tell.
If I had to bet on fleet renewal I'd bet on this.

https://commercialaircraft.bombardier.c ... crj-series

Still the lowest cost per mile around. For the shorter routes it's perfect. Redesigned cabin, larger luggage bibs like the CSeries and updated flight deck.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by V1Vr »

teacher wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:54 pm
rudder wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:17 am
av8ts wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:23 am Won’t happen
And the disappearance of GGN as an a Express carrier was not going to happen. GGN was going to get CRJ900’s and expand. That WAS the AC plan. Wonder what changed?

I will go with 50/50 that there will be just 1 Express operating certificate within 24 months.

What just happened? In the jump ball between 3 carriers for incremental 76 jets in the Express portfolio, Jazz was just assigned 14 more aircraft. And along with that, one Express carrier was erased from the map.

In 2008 Jazz operated approximately 96% of the Express ASM’s. By 2018 that was down to 70%. With the recent announcement, Jazz will return to 80%+ by the end of 2019. And by the end of 2020 Jazz will be operating 35 CRJ900’s representing just under 60% of the 76 seat Express jet seat capacity. Add in the 15 CRJ200’s and that represents 65% of the Express jet seat capacity. Assuming that extending the service life of the CRJ200 to 2025 is a little far fetched, then those aircraft will eventually be replaced by 76 seat jets on some ratio basis using the substitution language in the CPA. These replacement jet aircraft will also operated by Jazz. And finally, Jazz has a MINIMUM fleet guarantee of 80 large regional aircraft for the period of 2026-2035.

So unless AC has a plan to grow the overall Express 76 seat jet fleet above 70 fins (possible), or to have Jazz operating 80 Q400’s from 2026-2035 (unlikely), the opportunities for either remaining Express operator to add incremental 76 seat jets from their respective current Express fleet plans are limited. And every Express pilot is waiting for the RRA/A220 shoe to drop in terms of routes over the next couple of years.

The older 175’s need to be replaced. Perhaps not in 2019/2020, but most certainly by 2025 and I predict sooner. Best outcome is 1:1 with either an E2 jet or whatever product is comparable. Worst outcome is that RRA/A220’s trigger a contraction in the Express 76 seat jet fleet. Can the Jazz 76 seat jet fleet be reduced prior to 2025? Nope. Wonder who that leaves?

Logic dictates that none of the reasons that provoked AC to go with the Express portfolio strategy still exist. CR got exactly what he wanted from both CHR and Jazz ALPA. He has a lock on those conditions at Jazz to 2035. And the Skyregional CPA has an early termination clause just like the one that was used on GGN. That represents flexibility for AC should the trend of declining Express inventory continue. So what further changes might that trigger in Express fleet and capacity for 2020-2025? I guess we can all wait to find out.

Better the remaining Express pilots put their heads together and create a win-win scenario. There is no reason that the Express pilots cannot demonstrate that further consolidation represents a superior outcome for AC, and for their constituents. The CHR/AC/ALPA agreement recently announced demonstrates that the AC perspective has changed, and that Express pilot job security is fleeting absent solid protections in both the CPA and the pilot collective agreement. Only one Express pilot group has such guarantees enshrined in their collective agreement. Do you believe those guarantees will be available at the other Express pilot bargaining table? I think it unlikely. Time will tell.
If I had to bet on fleet renewal I'd bet on this.

https://commercialaircraft.bombardier.c ... crj-series

Still the lowest cost per mile around. For the shorter routes it's perfect. Redesigned cabin, larger luggage bibs like the CSeries and updated flight deck.

I'd agree with you. Jazz has mostly always been a bombardier airline and the CRJ is already on the OC with a proven training program. Plus it's Canadian.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder »

teacher wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:54 pm
If I had to bet on fleet renewal I'd bet on this.

https://commercialaircraft.bombardier.c ... crj-series

Still the lowest cost per mile around. For the shorter routes it's perfect. Redesigned cabin, larger luggage bibs like the CSeries and updated flight deck.
You may be right but unless I am mistaken it is still equipped with the cold war era tubed CRT screens accompanied by noisiest flight deck fans of any commercial aircraft. No autothrust. Or auto brake. Or auto land.

The interior is a significant improvement. Jazz/AC should give serious consideration to an interior retrofit on existing CRJ900 fleet.

Given the slightly increased range on the CRJ1000, I would give thought to seeking a let from ACPA to operate CRJ900/1000 Express mixed fleet with operational seat limit remaining at 76 seats. Clearly, ACPA would get something in return. ACPA still has a shopping list. Alternatively, I would seek a Supplement on the CRJ900 increasing MGTOW to 85,500 lbs/ Max RAMP 86,000 lbs. This is not optimal solution vs increased cargo capacity/range on the CRJ1000 with the option to either increase the J class cabin or add more economy plus inventory owing to the increased cabin space but limiting configuration to 76 seats.

E2 jet is really nice. And really expensive. And a long waiting list. But would be a customer favourite. Auto thrust. Auto brake. Auto land. Would all be nice features for the pilots.

I don’t see an Express 76 seat jet fleet larger than 70. Perhaps even remaining at 60. Single type at some point in the future is an imperative. AC certainly appear to be price sensitive. Will need to source a mission capable aircraft that could remain in service to 2035 and beyond. And figure out whose corporate balance sheet will retain the debt. AC? CAC? Other?

First step - how many Express carriers. Next step - fleet after 2025.
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av8ts
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by av8ts »

rudder wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 8:17 am
av8ts wrote: Sun Feb 03, 2019 7:23 am Won’t happen
And the disappearance of GGN as an a Express carrier was not going to happen. GGN was going to get CRJ900’s and expand. That WAS the AC plan. Wonder what changed?

I will go with 50/50 that there will be just 1 Express operating certificate within 24 months.

What just happened? In the jump ball between 3 carriers for incremental 76 jets in the Express portfolio, Jazz was just assigned 14 more aircraft. And along with that, one Express carrier was erased from the map.

In 2008 Jazz operated approximately 96% of the Express ASM’s. By 2018 that was down to 70%. With the recent announcement, Jazz will return to 80%+ by the end of 2019. And by the end of 2020 Jazz will be operating 35 CRJ900’s representing just under 60% of the 76 seat Express jet seat capacity. Add in the 15 CRJ200’s and that represents 65% of the Express jet seat capacity. Assuming that extending the service life of the CRJ200 to 2025 is a little far fetched, then those aircraft will eventually be replaced by 76 seat jets on some ratio basis using the substitution language in the CPA. These replacement jet aircraft will also operated by Jazz. And finally, Jazz has a MINIMUM fleet guarantee of 80 large regional aircraft for the period of 2026-2035.

So unless AC has a plan to grow the overall Express 76 seat jet fleet above 70 fins (possible), or to have Jazz operating 80 Q400’s from 2026-2035 (unlikely), the opportunities for either remaining Express operator to add incremental 76 seat jets from their respective current Express fleet plans are limited. And every Express pilot is waiting for the RRA/A220 shoe to drop in terms of routes over the next couple of years.

The older 175’s need to be replaced. Perhaps not in 2019/2020, but most certainly by 2025 and I predict sooner. Best outcome is 1:1 with either an E2 jet or whatever product is comparable. Worst outcome is that RRA/A220’s trigger a contraction in the Express 76 seat jet fleet. Can the Jazz 76 seat jet fleet be reduced prior to 2025? Nope. Wonder who that leaves?

Logic dictates that none of the reasons that provoked AC to go with the Express portfolio strategy still exist. CR got exactly what he wanted from both CHR and Jazz ALPA. He has a lock on those conditions at Jazz to 2035. And the Skyregional CPA has an early termination clause just like the one that was used on GGN. That represents flexibility for AC should the trend of declining Express inventory continue. So what further changes might that trigger in Express fleet and capacity for 2020-2025? I guess we can all wait to find out.

Better the remaining Express pilots put their heads together and create a win-win scenario. There is no reason that the Express pilots cannot demonstrate that further consolidation represents a superior outcome for AC, and for their constituents. The CHR/AC/ALPA agreement recently announced demonstrates that the AC perspective has changed, and that Express pilot job security is fleeting absent solid protections in both the CPA and the pilot collective agreement. Only one Express pilot group has such guarantees enshrined in their collective agreement. Do you believe those guarantees will be available at the other Express pilot bargaining table? I think it unlikely. Time will tell.
My “it won’t happen “ was in response to the title of this thread.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by rudder »

And here is what AC think about Express consolidation -

Air Canada Fourth Quarter and Year End 2018 Management Discussion and Analysis page 8:


• The consolidation of more of Air Canada’s overall regional capacity into Jazz’ footprint, thereby lowering Air Canada’s overall regional costs in the future.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by BE02 Driver »

rudder wrote: Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:29 pm And here is what AC think about Express consolidation -

Air Canada Fourth Quarter and Year End 2018 Management Discussion and Analysis page 8:


• The consolidation of more of Air Canada’s overall regional capacity into Jazz’ footprint, thereby lowering Air Canada’s overall regional costs in the future.
Quite the "I told you so".

Frankly, I agreed with you all along.
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Re: Chorus/Ggn/Sky merge

Post by DanWEC »

They had likely already bet that the group would accept that bananas wage contract, and they planned well beforehand to shift capacity to Jazz under the presumption it would be even cheaper for AC because of the contract. Great job.

Remember guys, Investors are number one, we are not. We'll never be voluntarily given any sort of improvement unless we fight for it. There's nothing sinister or conspiring about it, it's just business. I'm just amazed at the lack of pushback in negotiations by ALPA.
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