Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

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telex
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by telex »

boeingboy wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:59 pm By far the biggest threat to the Max is the engines - with all the problems they are having - they should have had their ETOPS certification pulled long ago.

Of course - you don't hear anyone going on about that.
Do you have the data available to support your theory?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by 47north »

Gino Under wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:39 pm
Can we get a round of applause for SMS?

Gino Under
SMS works well at most 705 carriers in Canada and very well at Jazz where I beilieve you work Gino. Many other countries, including the ASAP programs in the US are not as evolved as we are in Canada in this regard.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Diadem »

boeingboy wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:59 pm By far the biggest threat to the Max is the engines - with all the problems they are having - they should have had their ETOPS certification pulled long ago.

Of course - you don't hear anyone going on about that.
ETOPS certification has to do with failure rate, and as far as I'm aware there hasn't been an unusual number of engine failures on the Max. Any issue with MCAS would be just as prevalent in short-haul flights as long-haul, and I fail to see how issues with lift at high AoAs would affect aircraft spending long periods of time in cruise.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Eric Janson »

Diadem wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:18 pm ETOPS certification has to do with failure rate, and as far as I'm aware there hasn't been an unusual number of engine failures on the Max. Any issue with MCAS would be just as prevalent in short-haul flights as long-haul, and I fail to see how issues with lift at high AoAs would affect aircraft spending long periods of time in cruise.
The issue is a faulty AOA sensor activating MCAS and driving the stabilser to full nose down. Re-trimming causes MCAS to once again drive the stabilser to full nose down. Lionair FDR data clearly shows this.

Moving the control column opposite to the direction of stabilser trim will not disable MCAS.

Unclear if any Simulators have MCAS built in (I doubt it since Boeing didn't feel the need to tell Pilots about this system).

A full nose down stabiliser cannot be overridden with elevator inputs as shown in several previous 737 crashes (737 Classic and NG).

I've only flown the 737 Classic - my understanding of MCAS comes from what I have been reading.

It appears that there are similarities between the Lionair and Ethiopian crash.

That warrants a grounding imho. Good to see individual Airlines and countries taking the initiative.

As for the 787 battery issues - building a steel box around them with a pipe going overboard isn't a solution imho.

The FAA has a lot to answer for as does Boeing imho. Corrupt Crony Capitalism at its worst.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Heliian »

P-40 wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:08 am
tsgas wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 am
karmutzen wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:35 am For an astronaut/engineer Garneau is a running dog-lackey to the sway of internet hysteria. He did not specify what "new information" he was processing with his engineer or astronaut "chapeau" on. Vertical profile? That was available from the start with Flight Radar. All my Max pilot buddies, including some training captains, don't have a concern flying it but emphasize that like any modern airliner you need to have a good understanding of the systems. And the Lion Air system issues with MCAS are now well known and reviewed in training, with thanks DaviiB for that explanation of this "bogeyman".

Copilot with 200 hrs? Was crew pairing done on a risk-assessed model? Things will go wrong with any machinery, the human interface is, or was, meant to mitigate the fact that every conceivable problem cannot be anticipated. The safety net of punching everything off and then systematically re-engaging after control is regained has now fallen out of favour because of the new religion that only full and complete automation can make an aircraft safer. Combined with pilot skill level that you wouldn't trust to hand fly, so just as well I suppose.

Like the large assortment of slightly different helmets in my closet for every leisure activity, this hypersensitivity to perceived or imagined risk is just a sign of the times. And the power of internet emotion and political interference has replaced the lengthy certification process, engineering analysis, and careful safety management systems.
Very well stated . It seems that man's superstitions and fears override science and technology . In the end , all politicians ever care about, is votes .
Agreed - perfectly phrased karmutzen.
Do you have 3 accounts to bolster yourself? Nobody ever agrees on anything here. You played yourself too.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by MrWings »

boeingboy wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:59 pm By far the biggest threat to the Max is the engines - with all the problems they are having - they should have had their ETOPS certification pulled long ago.

Of course - you don't hear anyone going on about that.
You've downplayed the accidents and defended the MAX saying any MCAS issue the plane may have had was "not unrecoverable" and that grounding is "over-reaction" and "herd mentality".

Now you are saying there are engine problems with the plane that no one is talking about, including yourself, until just now.

Exactly what IS your agenda?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by shimmydampner »

boeingboy wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:59 pm By far the biggest threat to the Max is the engines - with all the problems they are having - they should have had their ETOPS certification pulled long ago.

Of course - you don't hear anyone going on about that.
Probably because it hasn't killed over 300 people in spectacular fashion.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Diadem »

Eric Janson wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:35 am That warrants a grounding imho. Good to see individual Airlines and countries taking the initiative.
There's a big difference between grounding and pulling ETOPS certification. If there's a satisfactory rectification to the problem such that the aircraft are deemed airworthy again, then I don't see why they wouldn't be allowed to do long-haul flights; the problem isn't with the engines failing, so if the Max is safe to take off and land again then it'll be safe in cruise, and Boeing shouldn't have to go through the whole ETOPS certification a second time.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by goingnowherefast »

Any word on when they're actually going to pull the FDR data?

It would be nice to know anything other than political speculation based on ADS-B/RADAR tracks and ATC tapes.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by BMLtech »

If MCAS were to be activated due to erroneous AOA data I'm curious if other false warnings would be presented that could cause confusion. Is there the possibility of a false stall warning/stick shaker at the same time?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by P-40 »

Heliian wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:15 am
P-40 wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:08 am
tsgas wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 am

Very well stated . It seems that man's superstitions and fears override science and technology . In the end , all politicians ever care about, is votes .
Agreed - perfectly phrased karmutzen.
Do you have 3 accounts to bolster yourself? Nobody ever agrees on anything here. You played yourself too.
Of course, you're just too darn smart. Perhaps for your own good...
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy »

The more I read about this MCAS system the more I wonder why it isn’t handled as a stab trim runaway by disabling it with the stab trim cut off switches. Or does this come down to crew training in other parts of the world on this jet that isn’t adequate compared to the US and Canada?
That is exactly what the procedure is. That is what Boeing re-enforced after Lion air went in and that is exactly what the previous 3 Lion air crews did when it went funky on the pervious 3 legs - and they all made it to destination just fine. Why the 4th crew didn't do that is a mystery.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy »

Any word on when they're actually going to pull the FDR data?
France.


The issue is a faulty AOA sensor activating MCAS and driving the stabilser to full nose down. Re-trimming causes MCAS to once again drive the stabilser to full nose down. Lionair FDR data clearly shows this.

Moving the control column opposite to the direction of stabilser trim will not disable MCAS.
No - but flipping the stab trim cutout switches will disable it - as will selecting flaps 1.
If you can disable a faulty system with the flip of a switch - a problem yes - grounding - no. If the problem was similar to the DC10 cargo doors (as someone alluded to earlier by saying this was DC10 bad) where the problem is sudden and catastrophic - then absolutely a grounding is in order.


You've downplayed the accidents and defended the MAX saying any MCAS issue the plane may have had was "not unrecoverable" and that grounding is "over-reaction" and "herd mentality".

Now you are saying there are engine problems with the plane that no one is talking about, including yourself, until just now.

Exactly what IS your agenda?
I have no agenda - As I stated above and still do - the MCAS is not an unrecoverable situation - it needs a fix yes, but the pilots flew around for 10 min before they lost it. My point is simply that the Leap engines have some real issues but no-one is talking about them are they? They are being treated as just teething problems. However - the 787 engines (Trent 1000) are having issues as well - and they had their ETOPS pulled. If they splashed a max due to a double engine failure - you can bet everybody would be in an uproar.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by gwengler »

Here is a simple description "what to do". It seems exactly the same procedure as the above mentioned "trim run-away".

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... ckpit.html
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by telex »

boeingboy wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:06 am
Any word on when they're actually going to pull the FDR data?
France.


The issue is a faulty AOA sensor activating MCAS and driving the stabilser to full nose down. Re-trimming causes MCAS to once again drive the stabilser to full nose down. Lionair FDR data clearly shows this.

Moving the control column opposite to the direction of stabilser trim will not disable MCAS.
No - but flipping the stab trim cutout switches will disable it - as will selecting flaps 1.
If you can disable a faulty system with the flip of a switch - a problem yes - grounding - no. If the problem was similar to the DC10 cargo doors (as someone alluded to earlier by saying this was DC10 bad) where the problem is sudden and catastrophic - then absolutely a grounding is in order.


You've downplayed the accidents and defended the MAX saying any MCAS issue the plane may have had was "not unrecoverable" and that grounding is "over-reaction" and "herd mentality".

Now you are saying there are engine problems with the plane that no one is talking about, including yourself, until just now.

Exactly what IS your agenda?
I have no agenda - As I stated above and still do - the MCAS is not an unrecoverable situation - it needs a fix yes, but the pilots flew around for 10 min before they lost it. My point is simply that the Leap engines have some real issues but no-one is talking about them are they? They are being treated as just teething problems. However - the 787 engines (Trent 1000) are having issues as well - and they had their ETOPS pulled. If they splashed a max due to a double engine failure - you can bet everybody would be in an uproar.
Can you provide info regarding these problematic engines?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy »

ETOPS certification has to do with failure rate, and as far as I'm aware there hasn't been an unusual number of engine failures on the Max.
Between Aug 17 2018 and Feb 13 2019 there have been 5 in flight shutdowns and 4 cases of engine failure (unscheduled engine removal) caught on the ground. CFM is dictating 100 hr inspections and they are not catching all the issues. The transfer gearbox bearings are failing at an alarming rate and CFM has no idea why - or how to fix them.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy »

Back to the topic at hand.....

Here is the bulliten issued by Boeing to all operators and made mandentory by an FAA AD after the Lion air accident....


"On Nov 7th 2018 Boeing issued an Operations Manual Bulletin (OMB) to all Boeing 737 MAX Operators stating that the investigation into the crash of PK-LQP found one of the Angle of Attack Sensors had provided incorrect readings, which could cause the aircraft's trim system to uncommandedly trim nose down in order to avoid a stall during manual flight. The OMB directs "operators to existing flight crew procedures to address circumstances where there is erroneous input from an AOA sensor." The OMB reiterates the Stabilizer Runaway non-normal checklist.

The flight Crew Operations Manual Bulletin TBC-19 reads:

The Indonesian National Transportation Safety Committee has indicated that Lion Air flight 610 experienced erroneous AOA data. Boeing would like to call attention to an AOA failure condition that can occur during manual flight only.

This bulletin directs flight crews to existing procedures to address this condition. In the event of erroneous AOA data, the pitch trim system can trim the stabilizer nose down in increments lasting up to 10 seconds. The nose down stabilizer trim movement can be stopped and reversed with the use of the electric stabilizer trim switches but may restart 5 seconds after the electric stabilizer trim switches are released. Repetitive cycles of uncommanded nose down stabilizer continue to occur unless the stabilizer trim system is deactivated through use of both STAB TRIM CUTOUT switches in accordance with the existing procedures in the Runaway Stabilizer NNC. It is possible for the stabilizer to reach the nose down limit unless the system inputs are counteracted completely by pilot trim inputs and both STAB TRIM CUTOUT switches are moved to CUTOUT.

Additionally, pilots are reminded that an erroneous AOA can cause some or all of the following indications and effects:

- Continuous or intermittent stick shaker on the affected side only.
- Minimum speed bar (red and black) on the affected side only.
- Increasing nose down control forces.
- Inability to engage autopilot.
- Automatic disengagement of autopilot.
- IAS DISAGREE alert.
- ALT DISAGREE alert.
- AOA DISAGREE alert (if the AOA indicator option is installed)
- FEEL DIFF PRESS light.

In the event an uncommanded nose down stabilizer trim is experienced on the 737 - 8 / - 9, in conjunction with one or more of the above indications or effects, do the Runaway Stabilizer NNC ensuring that the STAB TRIM CUTOUT switches are set to CUTOUT and stay in the CUTOUT position for the remainder of the flight."
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by co-joe »

FICU wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:03 pm The more I read about this MCAS system the more I wonder why it isn’t handled as a stab trim runaway by disabling it with the stab trim cut off switches. Or does this come down to crew training in other parts of the world on this jet that isn’t adequate compared to the US and Canada?
I wonder that myself. So the mcas system is giving you an un-commanded nose down trim. You disengage the autoflight system and the harder you pull back the more that wheel spins forward. Without even knowing what mcas is, wouldn't you immediately be thinking runaway trim?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by FICU »

boeingboy wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:50 am
The more I read about this MCAS system the more I wonder why it isn’t handled as a stab trim runaway by disabling it with the stab trim cut off switches. Or does this come down to crew training in other parts of the world on this jet that isn’t adequate compared to the US and Canada?
That is exactly what the procedure is. That is what Boeing re-enforced after Lion air went in and that is exactly what the previous 3 Lion air crews did when it went funky on the pervious 3 legs - and they all made it to destination just fine. Why the 4th crew didn't do that is a mystery.
Interesting. So, in the case of Lion Air it was a mishandled stab trim runaway. They would also notice the stab trim wheel trimming nose down uncontrollably so it's not like it's a hidden system that the crew wouldn't have known what was happening. If it's the same with the Ethiopian crash it could again come down to a mishandled trim runway.

Does that require a need to ground the fleet other than for public optics?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy »

Does that require a need to ground the fleet other than for public optics?
That's exactly my point.
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