Future of Canada's Airline Industry

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Airbusa3
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Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by Airbusa3 »

Hey Guys!

Well, im a third year university student in Toronto whos always wanted to become a commercial pilot. Im just in a sort of a dilemma about if I should pursue a career in aviation or go onto banking. I just want to ask people who are currently in the industry or have extensive knowledge about it that where do you see the industry in 10 to 15 years from now in terms of employment opps, wawcon, etc


Thanks!
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plausiblyannonymous
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by plausiblyannonymous »

You need to ask yourself a serious set of questions.

Do you want to make money?
Do you want to have a family?
Do you want to have a social life?
Do you want to be able to make your own choices?

If you have answered yes to any of these, you should consider banking.

The aviation industry is booming right now, but the first thing that people stop spending on when money gets tight is travel.
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by goingnowherefast »

The last 25 years of pilot contracts have been concessions or status quo. Even during the current economic growth and unprecedented pilot demand, there haven't been any appreciable gains.

The next recession will likely lead to more massive concessions, pay cuts, higher workload, and make the job even less appealing than it already is.
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Duke Point
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by Duke Point »

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Last edited by Duke Point on Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DirtyDashDriver
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by DirtyDashDriver »

You are asking a length of time so far ahead that precedence says you can't possibly know where the industry will be.

If you asked the same question in 1945, most pilots would not have imagined that by 1960 there would not be 5 people in the cockpit (Captain, First Officer, Flight Engineer, Navigator, Communicator). But by 1960, technology progressively did away with the Navigator and Communicator.

Fast forward to 1975 and most pilots would not have imagined that by 1990, there would not be 3 people in the cockpit (Captain, First Officer, Flight Engineer). But by 1990, technology had progressively done away with the Flight Engineer to where the position is now a relic of a bygone era, save for a handful of cargo aircraft.

So asking in 2019 where the industry will be in 2034 is asking people to consider an industry they cannot fathom. Manufacturers are already designing single-pilot aircraft, and drones have proven themselves time and again on the battlefield. Just as quickly as the Navigator, Communicator, and Flight Engineer disappeared, so too will the First Officer. As soon as the first airline starts to operate a single-pilot aircraft, they all will. Then once the public becomes accustomed to self-driving cars, drones will make a move into commercial aviation. That's not to say there won't be pilots, but I believe we are firmly in the twilight of the airline pilot as we know it.

You'd likely get a better picture of the future if you research the pilots and squadrons of the USAF flying the Global Hawk and Predator drones.
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FL320
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by FL320 »

plausiblyannonymous wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:20 am You need to ask yourself a serious set of questions.

Do you want to make money?
Do you want to have a family?
Do you want to have a social life?
Do you want to be able to make your own choices?

If you have answered yes to any of these, you should consider banking.

The aviation industry is booming right now, but the first thing that people stop spending on when money gets tight is travel.
I am an airline pilot and here are my answers to the questions:

Do you want to make money? Yes - I make more than 200k/y (and it’s still increasing every year)
Do you want to have a family? Yes and I do
Do you want to have a social life? Yes - I do and I enjoy it
Do you want to be able to make your own choices? Yes - I do, I work half the month and I can afford more choices than most people working an office job.

A friend of mine is working at RBC wealth management and he makes a little more money than me but he works 50h per week, always on his cell phone while at home in the evenings - he’s unhappy and exhausted - he knows the burnout is at the corner.... I would never ever trade my job with him!

Duke Point is spot on!
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rudder
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by rudder »

I have a close family acquaintance with an Ivy League MBA who used to work as an investment banker. It was a second career (former airline pilot - job lost due to company insolvency and liquidation).

After that particular recession ended, went back to the airlines. Even after another liquidation and loss of seniority has never looked back. Either work 50-70 hours per week in the rat race or speed along at FL370.

It is a personal choice.
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mixturerich
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by mixturerich »

At the end of the day, you have to really enjoy flying the airplane.

Joining this industry is a gamble. It's in great shape now, but what if the economy tanks, there's another big SARS/flu outbreak, or a terrorist attack?
Now you're stuck with $50k+ of debt, living in some dumpy backwater town, loading airplanes and doing grunt work for min wage for a few years, waiting patiently for the industry to recover. You need to be prepared for hitting 0 or 00 when you bet on red or black. The only thing that keeps most people going through these years is a strong passion for piloting, for aviation. If you don't truly love the job, and can't imagine doing anything else, it's going to be really tough, especially with a spouse and any kids.

So you just need to be mentally prepared for that possibility. The happiest pilots I know are the ones that went "all in" and kept that airline job in their sights, kept the faith, and never let it go. Life does eventually become quite comfortable, it's just a gamble on how long it takes to get there, since the industry is at the mercy of world economics. It's very much a single man/woman's job for the first several years.

Personally, I never went into this career expecting a normal schedule, weekends or holidays off, or great pay for the first 5 years at least. But damn do I love flying airplanes. So just keep your expectations in check.
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DropTanks
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by DropTanks »

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Last edited by DropTanks on Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
FOD_Vacuum
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by FOD_Vacuum »

FL320 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:06 am
plausiblyannonymous wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:20 am You need to ask yourself a serious set of questions.

Do you want to make money?
Do you want to have a family?
Do you want to have a social life?
Do you want to be able to make your own choices?

If you have answered yes to any of these, you should consider banking.

The aviation industry is booming right now, but the first thing that people stop spending on when money gets tight is travel.
I am an airline pilot and here are my answers to the questions:

Do you want to make money? Yes - I make more than 200k/y (and it’s still increasing every year)
Do you want to have a family? Yes and I do
Do you want to have a social life? Yes - I do and I enjoy it
Do you want to be able to make your own choices? Yes - I do, I work half the month and I can afford more choices than most people working an office job.

A friend of mine is working at RBC wealth management and he makes a little more money than me but he works 50h per week, always on his cell phone while at home in the evenings - he’s unhappy and exhausted - he knows the burnout is at the corner.... I would never ever trade my job with him!

Duke Point is spot on!
If you are in Canada, may I ask where you work? With those facts, I assume you are an AC captain with a pretty good seniority...I am in my 8th year as a commercial pilot in Canada working at a regional airline out of Vancouver and I fly 85-100 hours a month since we are always short pilots. If you want to make a semi-decent paycheque it is around 100-110 hours a month of flying (around 50 duty hours a week) with the OT that kicked in after 85 hrs. And yes, crew sched is constantly worried that they will go beyond the 30 day, 3 month etc duty hour limits. The pay and retention is not there and pilots are looking to get out at their earliest convenience. Being scheduled to work 85 hours a month is the norm now these days and it is getting ridiculously damn exhausting. Many people calling in sick because they don’t want to call “fatigued”.I make less than a third what you make.I have no real social life anymore because I am too tired to do anything else. I couldn't imagine having a family and kids and I have no idea how the other pilots cope with the demanding schedule we have these days. Yes I am looking to move on. I would go the banking job if you want any kind of good paying and financially stable job with a social life-my two cents.
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FL320
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by FL320 »

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Last edited by FL320 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
FL320
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by FL320 »

If you are in Canada, may I ask where you work?
Air Transat; A330/321 captain (same payscale) - low seniority
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mixturerich
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by mixturerich »

FOD_Vacuum wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:13 pm
FL320 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:06 am
plausiblyannonymous wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:20 am You need to ask yourself a serious set of questions.

Do you want to make money?
Do you want to have a family?
Do you want to have a social life?
Do you want to be able to make your own choices?

If you have answered yes to any of these, you should consider banking.

The aviation industry is booming right now, but the first thing that people stop spending on when money gets tight is travel.
I am an airline pilot and here are my answers to the questions:

Do you want to make money? Yes - I make more than 200k/y (and it’s still increasing every year)
Do you want to have a family? Yes and I do
Do you want to have a social life? Yes - I do and I enjoy it
Do you want to be able to make your own choices? Yes - I do, I work half the month and I can afford more choices than most people working an office job.

A friend of mine is working at RBC wealth management and he makes a little more money than me but he works 50h per week, always on his cell phone while at home in the evenings - he’s unhappy and exhausted - he knows the burnout is at the corner.... I would never ever trade my job with him!

Duke Point is spot on!
If you are in Canada, may I ask where you work? With those facts, I assume you are an AC captain with a pretty good seniority...I am in my 8th year as a commercial pilot in Canada working at a regional airline out of Vancouver and I fly 85-100 hours a month since we are always short pilots. If you want to make a semi-decent paycheque it is around 100-110 hours a month of flying (around 50 duty hours a week) with the OT that kicked in after 85 hrs. And yes, crew sched is constantly worried that they will go beyond the 30 day, 3 month etc duty hour limits. The pay and retention is not there and pilots are looking to get out at their earliest convenience. Being scheduled to work 85 hours a month is the norm now these days and it is getting ridiculously damn exhausting. Many people calling in sick because they don’t want to call “fatigued”.I make less than a third what you make.I have no real social life anymore because I am too tired to do anything else. I couldn't imagine having a family and kids and I have no idea how the other pilots cope with the demanding schedule we have these days. Yes I am looking to move on. I would go the banking job if you want any kind of good paying and financially stable job with a social life-my two cents.
Are you forced to work over 85 hours a month? By now you should be able to sit left seat and make a fair paycheque (over $85k) without OT with a good amount of days off. If not, you’re not at the right company.

The average family household income in Canada is like $70k (how the hell do they get by?), so if you’re single and making something like that (by 8 years you really should be making at least that) and have “no social life”, you’re either budgeting poorly or you’re at the wrong company. No offence but if you’re pay and lifestyle is like that after 8 years something doesn’t really add up, no wonder people want to leave your company at their “earliest convenience.” Yikes!
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The De-Icer
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by The De-Icer »

[/quote]

If you are in Canada, may I ask where you work? With those facts, I assume you are an AC captain with a pretty good seniority...I am in my 8th year as a commercial pilot in Canada working at a regional airline out of Vancouver and I fly 85-100 hours a month since we are always short pilots. If you want to make a semi-decent paycheque it is around 100-110 hours a month of flying (around 50 duty hours a week) with the OT that kicked in after 85 hrs. And yes, crew sched is constantly worried that they will go beyond the 30 day, 3 month etc duty hour limits. The pay and retention is not there and pilots are looking to get out at their earliest convenience. Being scheduled to work 85 hours a month is the norm now these days and it is getting ridiculously damn exhausting. Many people calling in sick because they don’t want to call “fatigued”.I make less than a third what you make.I have no real social life anymore because I am too tired to do anything else. I couldn't imagine having a family and kids and I have no idea how the other pilots cope with the demanding schedule we have these days. Yes I am looking to move on. I would go the banking job if you want any kind of good paying and financially stable job with a social life-my two cents.
[/quote]

8 years at a company and still have no social life. You ever think maybe it’s a you thing? 4 yrs at Jazz and yr 3 captain and I have no complaints about the industry. If you can’t afford a family after 8 years at an airline, you should ask yourself why you’re not making 80-90k plus. And if you are already making that, still don’t have a social life and still struggling to make it by, where is the money going? Sounds like you’re stuck because of your own decisions.
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ant_321
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by ant_321 »

FOD_Vacuum wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:13 pm
FL320 wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:06 am
plausiblyannonymous wrote: Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:20 am You need to ask yourself a serious set of questions.

Do you want to make money?
Do you want to have a family?
Do you want to have a social life?
Do you want to be able to make your own choices?

If you have answered yes to any of these, you should consider banking.

The aviation industry is booming right now, but the first thing that people stop spending on when money gets tight is travel.
I am an airline pilot and here are my answers to the questions:

Do you want to make money? Yes - I make more than 200k/y (and it’s still increasing every year)
Do you want to have a family? Yes and I do
Do you want to have a social life? Yes - I do and I enjoy it
Do you want to be able to make your own choices? Yes - I do, I work half the month and I can afford more choices than most people working an office job.

A friend of mine is working at RBC wealth management and he makes a little more money than me but he works 50h per week, always on his cell phone while at home in the evenings - he’s unhappy and exhausted - he knows the burnout is at the corner.... I would never ever trade my job with him!

Duke Point is spot on!
If you are in Canada, may I ask where you work? With those facts, I assume you are an AC captain with a pretty good seniority...I am in my 8th year as a commercial pilot in Canada working at a regional airline out of Vancouver and I fly 85-100 hours a month since we are always short pilots. If you want to make a semi-decent paycheque it is around 100-110 hours a month of flying (around 50 duty hours a week) with the OT that kicked in after 85 hrs. And yes, crew sched is constantly worried that they will go beyond the 30 day, 3 month etc duty hour limits. The pay and retention is not there and pilots are looking to get out at their earliest convenience. Being scheduled to work 85 hours a month is the norm now these days and it is getting ridiculously damn exhausting. Many people calling in sick because they don’t want to call “fatigued”.I make less than a third what you make.I have no real social life anymore because I am too tired to do anything else. I couldn't imagine having a family and kids and I have no idea how the other pilots cope with the demanding schedule we have these days. Yes I am looking to move on. I would go the banking job if you want any kind of good paying and financially stable job with a social life-my two cents.
I’m in my 8th year of flying and no complaints here. I’ll make about $180k this year. I have a family. No complaints about my social life. What other job will give 15-20 days a month to hang out with friends, have hobbies, etc. You just need friends who don’t do 9-5. As a plus I haven’t touched an airplane since the first week of August 😉
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FOD_Vacuum
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by FOD_Vacuum »

When you have worked at the same company for about two years and crew scheduling increases your work month by 30% of that from when you started to the max. As per the book until OT kicks in, increases the overnight with min rest by 30% and has no wage increases to match the inflation rate, I highly doubt it has anything to do with me as to why I feel burnt out and feel how I do. I was in another type of flying before I joined my airline and did not go the regional route early in my career due to family reasons.

At the 704/705 regional level it seems the work is almost doubling for the same amount of pay. If I wanted to make any more money in OT, it has to come on top of the 85 hours a month. That amount of flying, month after month is not conducive to a healthy and happy lifestyle, which is why I am deciding to call it quits and move on to somewhere else. But it must be nice not to have touched an AC since August...your social life I’m sure would thrive. Since then I’ve put in another 165 hours in my logbook. I am burnt out, my colleagues are burnt out...where do I find that job that pays almost 200 K and barely work?? And no, I do not even make close to $85k base pay in the left seat which is also why I am leaving.

But to go back to the OP, the above examples are rare-a lot of pilots do not have this type of pay or luxury schedule, especially for the first five or so years after starting to work as a pilot.
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PT6onH20
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by PT6onH20 »

FOD_Vacuum wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:44 am
But to go back to the OP, the above examples are rare-a lot of pilots do not have this type of pay or luxury schedule, especially for the first five or so years after starting to work as a pilot.
And if most pilots did have that lifestyle, there certainly wouldn’t be a shortage.

Don’t compare yourself to others in this business. Pay your dues, the pot of gold is there for the smart and the patient.

-a fellow millennial
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mixturerich
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by mixturerich »

FOD_Vacuum wrote: Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:44 am And no, I do not even make close to $85k base pay in the left seat
That is really sad for 704/705. Really sad.
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Sky Regional? Georgian? Jazz? Encore? Porter?
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goingnowherefast
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Re: Future of Canada's Airline Industry

Post by goingnowherefast »

85k a year in Montreal provides much more disposable income than 85k a year in Vancouver.

I'd say the average pilot struggles financially for the first 5-10 years of their career. Depends on how many pay cuts they took to chase tin, or how much dept they acquired in flight school. Which city they chose to live in, etc.

Buying a shiny new car or other toys doesn't help either. I drove shit boxes for quite a while and still haven't owned a motorized toy, boat, quad or otherwise. Is it right? I dunno, I suppose my family deserves a nice safe modern car for all the personal and family sacrifices I make for my profession.

FWIW, it took me about 6 years to break 50k a year, and now I'm around 100k. Industry is CURRENTLY moving faster than it was when I started. In another 5 years, we could see a trade war recession.

15 years in the future, we'll all have flying electric Teslas flying us around on drone mode at mach 2.5, and there will be no such thing as an airline, or airline pilots. :D
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