Recession incoming

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rookiepilot
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

photofly wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:16 am
rookiepilot wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.
And that’s the cop-out, there it is in one line.

I’m an excellent weather forecaster. I’m 100% sure it’s going to rain again. Just don’t ask me when.
I love how you quoted HALF of what I wrote.

When I see a solid line of TS forming on my route, I make another plan. I don't know about you.

It's not important to know exactly when it rains, it's to pay attention to the GFA in ones planning. Beefs questions are neither precisely answerable nor important.
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

7ECA wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:44 pm
rookiepilot wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:55 am That's nothing to do with Trump or anyone else.
Nothing, at all? Would you care to comment on the trade war with China - is that having an effect on the world economy, or how about its effects on the US in manufacturing, farming, etc.? How about the pissing match with Canada about aluminum, steel, and soft wood lumber - I mean, I guess all the mills shutting down in BC are unrelated...?

Then there's the Brexit fiasco with "Not a good start" Boris thinking he can fight with the EU. Japan and South Korea getting in a pissing match over trade. India and Pakistan - who just happen to be nuclear armed and trigger happy, looking to get something started over Kashmir and settle old scores. China is of course mixed up in Kashmir, as well as trying to gain influence and standing by intervening in the Japan/S. Korea game. North Korea is a nuclear armed wildcard in the region - albeit one who tends to focus on their own survival more than anything, but they've gained "street cred" internationally of late. Hong Kong, showing Xi has remarkable patience before rolling the cavalry. Iraq is unstable - big surprise. Syria is shot to hell, but still uppity and trying to push Turkey around - of course the wildcard in this fight is Russia being that they like to cozy up to Syria and Turkey, and the US can't be left out the show either... Saudi Arabia is overextended in Yemen and showing more than her usual tendency of being a complete road apple when it comes to defence. Iran, same old story since '78/79 but showing a lot more tenacity but also doing a remarkable job with her cohorts in the region (beating up ISIS). Israel, yeah...

Anyhow, I'm of the opinion that when the upcoming recession kicks off that the previous bitching from Trump in regard Federal Reserve policy will start up again in earnest, and will do little to help ease the strain - actually it'll probably end up doing the exact opposite and make things worse. I'm just wondering though if the predictions will be correct, that this will end up being a Depression rather than a recession - and possibly worse than the crash of '29, with all the associated fun that brought about.
Are you aware how many in congress, and the US public, are highly supportive of Trump's stance on China?

And many would say the trade war(s) has been going on a long time. Only now is the US pushing back.

Anyway that isn't the cause of the pending recession.

The point of my post isn't to argue about the causes, it's advice to consider preparing for a very difficult and different environment, a year or 2 down the road.
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photofly
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by photofly »

rookiepilot wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:03 am
photofly wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:16 am
rookiepilot wrote: Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:42 pm Beef, there are many timelines in your questions, and no one knows them with precision.
And that’s the cop-out, there it is in one line.

I’m an excellent weather forecaster. I’m 100% sure it’s going to rain again. Just don’t ask me when.
I love how you quoted HALF of what I wrote.

When I see a solid line of TS forming on my route, I make another plan. I don't know about you.

It's not important to know exactly when it rains, it's to pay attention to the GFA in ones planning. Beefs questions are neither precisely answerable nor important.
You’ve been posting about the looming recession for a couple of years or more (or perhaps it just seems that way). I too can guarantee a recession will happen in the next twenty years.

If you want to impress, tell us when, and stand on your forecast.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

Easy to not like Trump, but you can't deny US economy is roaring, and he's not afraid to push back at anyone.

He has also said he would go full out free trade with any nation that dropped their own trade subsidies and tariffs.

He might not be eloquent, but he's doing exactly what he said he would before he was elected.

I felt somewhat slighted as a Canadian by the pressure he put on us, steel exports, etc, but that was just as much a result of our weak leadership and protectionism of the dairy cartel.

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
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Babar350
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Babar350 »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:26 am Easy to not like Trump, but you can't deny US economy is roaring, and he's not afraid to push back at anyone.

He has also said he would go full out free trade with any nation that dropped their own trade subsidies and tariffs.

He might not be eloquent, but he's doing exactly what he said he would before he was elected.

I felt somewhat slighted as a Canadian by the pressure he put on us, steel exports, etc, but that was just as much a result of our weak leadership and protectionism of the dairy cartel.

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
We would lose. We saw it with the C-Series. We are not playing in the same playground. People don’t get that the only « countries » that can stand are either China, or European Union when they would decide to to so.
Canada needs US more than they need us.
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altiplano
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

I don't think you read my comment right.

And it isn't China standing up to the Americans, the Americans are standing up to China.

For that matter, the entire West better get on that track too, shore up our alliances - valuewise, politically, economically, culturally - put all the socialist commie blue sky bullshit division to pasture or divided we're going to get stepped on. If we pivot left we're going to get owned.
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Babar350
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Babar350 »

I was answering to this :
Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
I’ve read somewhere that China has taken control of the majority of the rare earth elements production.

The West didn’t believed in was relevant to think about it... oil is not everything, we’ll learn it the hard way unfortunately.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. »

Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
Or teach Trump how to speak French.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

I just openly wonder if this is a great time for young folks to take on a giant load of debt -- as many posts seem to indicate many are doing to try to catch the pilot gold rush -- when we may well have turned already.

I could be wrong and the pilot shortage is secular.

Especially when one sees stories on the premiums to be paid due to a shortage of instructors.

But that's me. I'm cautious about debt.

My sense in a year, 2 at the most, there will be loads of availability for instruction, anytime you want.

And a load of shiny near - new aircraft, boats, and pickup trucks, at great prices.......
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:59 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rxl »

I’ve been gainfully employed flying and or fixing airplanes since I left high school in 1976 and have lost track of how many recessions/economic downturns there has been since then. In the (holy sh!t) 43 years that have passed I have been unemployed at grand total of one month.
From that personal historical perspective I have to say ... recession? What recession?
With respect to Mr. Trump, he can barely speak English let alone any other language. I have ZERO respect for that con man.
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altiplano
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

Babar350 wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:39 pm I was answering to this :
Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
So what do you mean then: "we would lose"?

Aligning and working with Trump, rather than making careless comments after he's out of the room (Trudeau), getting yourself banned from the Oval Office (Freeland), and trying to negotiate bullshit, fruitless, virtue signal left wing identity crap into the largest, most critical deal Canada is involved in would bring far more success for Canada and Canadians.

We threw a ton away and left the Americans shaking their heads about what our priorities really are...
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Babar350
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Babar350 »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:09 pm
Babar350 wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:39 pm I was answering to this :
Put someone in Ottawa who speaks his language and let's get on the gravy train.
So what do you mean then: "we would lose"?

Aligning and working with Trump, rather than making careless comments after he's out of the room (Trudeau), getting yourself banned from the Oval Office (Freeland), and trying to negotiate bullshit, fruitless, virtue signal left wing identity crap into the largest, most critical deal Canada is involved in would bring far more success for Canada and Canadians.

We threw a ton away and left the Americans shaking their heads about what our priorities really are...
I am just wondering, what leverage do(did) we have to negotiate a profitable USMCA agreement?
We can get on the gravy train only when the people we would put in Ottawa have leverage and you can't have leverage when we are so much dependent over the USA.
My thoughts though...
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rxl »

What country on what planet is it that Trump is interested in “aligning and working” with?
Americans have enjoyed a very high standard of living since the end of WW2 thanks to their hard work, ingenuity and TRADE with the rest of the world.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rookiepilot »

rxl wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:40 pm What country on what planet is it that Trump is interested in “aligning and working” with?
Americans have enjoyed a very high standard of living since the end of WW2 thanks to their hard work, ingenuity and TRADE with the rest of the world.
Well,

We have a fearless leader - for now anyway -- who expresses admiration for communist china and takes cheap shots at our historical best friends every chance he gets.

And Canadians wonder why we aren't respected on the world stage. And why our friends in the US congress have gone awfully quiet.

Good job!
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by altiplano »

rxl wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:40 pm What country on what planet is it that Trump is interested in “aligning and working” with?
Americans have enjoyed a very high standard of living since the end of WW2 thanks to their hard work, ingenuity and TRADE with the rest of the world.
I think we ought to be interested in aligning and working with America, and today that's Trump.

I agree with the rest of your post.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by C.W.E. »

They have Trump.

We have Trudeau .

I'll take Trump any day over Trudeau.
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by rxl »

I’m not a fan of Mr. Trudeau either.
I’ve grown very weary of politicians of all stripes continually spewing rhetorical nonsense to gain or maintain power. Trump telling Americans that only he can “Make America Great Again” is a perfect example.
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trey kule
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by trey kule »

So did you vote Liberal, because our Prime minister is such an ethical, world respected leader?
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Old fella »

OK, y’all don’t want JT back as PM and/or think he has been a disaster. For sure and fair enough, tell us then who should replace him. Just asking!
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Re: Recession incoming

Post by Squaretail »

rookiepilot wrote: Sun Oct 06, 2019 4:09 pm
We have a fearless leader - for now anyway -- who expresses admiration for communist china and takes cheap shots at our historical best friends every chance he gets.
Which leader are you talking about here? Unfortunately it describes both Trump and Trudeau.

At the end of the day, who our leader is doesn't matter. It wouldn't matter if Harper was still in office. What does matter to us is that whenever there's a Republican in the White House, its more prominent that they seek to score political points at home by using Canada as a scapegoat for poor practices on their own side. Not that the Democrats don't do that too, the Republicans just seem to be more aggressive about it. Softwood lumber, Dairy producers, Oil, Beef, whatever is easiest depending on where they need votes. Unfortunately for us, a lot of Red votes are in swing districts along our border.

Cheese for instance. Whatever you think of Canada's dairy market and system, the fact of the matter is that its friggin' small potatoes. People forget how few people live here when it comes to market shares, and at the end of the day we don't have a lot of pull. There's more people in California than there is in Canada. So does the U.S. starting a fight with us really help their dairy farmers at the end of the day? No. IF they were to increase American exports in Dairy to Canada by 300% it would mean an increase in less than 1% in revenues for Wisconsin producers. It would be smarter to convince Californians to buy more cheese. But it sounds good in a presidential election to American voters that you're fighting for them.

TBH, what Canadians need to do, is convince Americans on the whole, we're good for business. Which for the most part we are. They get cheap stuff from us, and its secure. We also buy tons of stuff from them, and the better we're doing, the more stuff we buy.

Now if you think Trump's policies are all clever, I know they're not. Oddly his election had a direct impact in my personal business, since one of the first things he did when getting into office was cancel or review all government contracts with foreign businesses, to which I was told was then paid a fee to us, to which we then re-submitted a proposal that was then approved by DoE - for more money. Win for me, I get more work and paid more. Maybe wasn't as great of a deal for the American taxpayer. But sounded good right? Maybe it helped him get more votes.
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I'm not sure what's more depressing: That everyone has a price, or how low the price always is.
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