Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

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photofly
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

Skymark wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:38 am As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.
Two were friends who lived in Toronto - the ride up from the US was just the parents and three children.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by trey kule »

So here was a man who loved aviation. Who was passionate about flying. And who bought himself a nice plane.

And on a flight ,it all ended in a terrible tragedy. 7 people died.

And on AvCanada a pack of ghouls forms to dissect this tragedy as if no one would care
A learning experience? Bullshit.
From what I read in these posts it was one person after another speculating to prove how clever they are,or to be the first to have guessed the cause. Or just throwing in some useless facts. Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot...not one bit....maybe a bit of lip service before wildly speculating,

The weather at some removed airport! Speculation about his skills..gross and empty weights! Anything to tear down a fellow aviator who cant defend himself. Just to make yourself feel superior.

No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?

Sit back for a moment and ask your self how it would be to read a thread like this if it was your relatives.

There are few new causes of accidents. The TSB will eventually issue their findings. And that will be just fine as a learning exercise for those who really want to learn.

In the meantime how about we all show some respect for the seven people who lost their lives.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

To be honest, the only emotion I have towards this guy is anger. Maybe respect will come, but I doubt it. I am sorry about his wife, his three children, and the other couple. So very sorry.

Yesterday was a great time to be learning some lessons; while my friends and family were hearing about it on the news, and asking me about it. In eighteen months time, it's going to be another statistic, another dispassionate accident analysis, and some grave chin-holding and nodding. Let it make an impression now, while things are still raw.

Does the actual cause of the accident matter? Not at all. If it turns out that the engine blew up, or the pilot had a coronary - are we going to turn around and say, "ah well, we thought it was a risky flight, but we were all wrong - nothing to see here, nothing to learn, after all"? The very finger of the Almighty might as well have poked down from the heavens and dashed the plane to pieces: the chain of poor decision-making and risk factors remains unchanged. That's what people should pay attention to.
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Last edited by photofly on Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by rookiepilot »

I have to agree with PF. Doesn't matter what the cause was.

In my view, night VFR for us private guys, had better be severe clear or close to it for the most part. "Marginal" and "night" don't mix too well. Unfamiliar terrain and lower experience levels, just place already high risks through the roof.

Probably dozens of these kinda of flights are concluded successfully, this one wasn't.

It's a worthwhile study in risk management.

I'm also not out to demonize this pilot or place my decisions above his. I have done night VFR flights I wouldn't do again, in good weather but over inappropriate terrain. (Algonquin park)

This accident truly, profoundly saddens me.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR »

No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?
Oh... I have made so many! Nearly died in one. Written about many others here, in the hope that newer pilots might consider what I think threatened the safety of my flight, could also threaten the safety of theirs. Maybe they're more skillful than I, or maybe more lucky....

In the mean time, the unfortunate pilot made some errors. However, more importantly to me, and not for the first time, people and pilots around him made some omissions.

Of course the pilot did not want to embark on a flight of danger, much less fatal - I give him the benefit of any doubt that he just did not give it enough consideration to balance the risk. Why did he not give it enough consideration? He does not appear in the videos to be bull headed, he seems a genuine caring pilot. So, I suppose that he just did not use the information he had available, to make a different decision, before it was too late.

I know not what weather he encountered enroute. I do know that the weather he chose to depart in would give me the shivers! My risk benefit analysis of departing in that weather at night at all, let alone with a plane load of people, would have resulted in a decision different to his. This, because I have departed in that type of weather, and lived to regret that decision, or, allowing another pilot to make that decision, and take me along.

So, we ll bear responsibility for this sad event.
Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot
I respect all pilots, including those who read here. I hope to impress newer pilots by inspiring them to consider their choices, before they have no choices left. Yes, in the past, I have quietly, and diplomatically said to an unknown pilot: "I would not be going flying right now", in the hope that annoying advice they did not ask, might be considered to alter a decision they were appearing to make. I have certainly told a fellow pilot who did not know any better that they should be scared right now, while in flight.

This sad event is a learning opportunity for new pilots, so should be discussed. More to the point, it is a reminder to we experienced pilots that we should not sit by silently, and let this kind of thing reoccur. How many accidents could I have prevented, had I been able to speak with the pilot about the risk of that flight, as my experience knew it to be, before they decided to fly....

This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....

Yes, seven people died, and that is very sad. It is a very sad milestone in aviation to incite discussion. I have also taken the opportunity to post to avoid such circumstances, without loss of life being the opener.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by rookiepilot »

ASI's videos are very good.

This case study is somewhat similar. (Potentially) -- although daytime.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W0lWsqAwYwY
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Cliff Jumper »

rookiepilot wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:36 pm
This case study is somewhat similar. (Potentially) -- although daytime.
PilotDAR wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:47 pm I know not what weather he encountered enroute. I do know that the weather he chose to depart in would give me the shivers!
Departure time was 4pm.

METAR CYYZ 272100Z 21011G17KT 15SM FEW015 BKN040 BKN075 10/05 A2941 RMK CF1SC6AC1 CF TR SLP964 DENSITY ALT 700FT=

METAR CYTZ 272100Z AUTO 22008KT 9SM SCT047 BKN060 BKN072 08/06 A2942 RMK SLP966=

METAR CYOO 272100Z AUTO VRB06KT 9SM SCT011 BKN026 BKN036 OVC060 08/08 A2941 RMK SLP962=
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Last edited by Cliff Jumper on Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Cliff Jumper »

trey kule wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:03 pm And on AvCanada a pack of ghouls forms to dissect this tragedy as if no one would care
A learning experience? Bullshit.
From what I read in these posts it was one person after another speculating to prove how clever they are,or to be the first to have guessed the cause.

ETC....
You're completely right Trey, and I'm grossly embarrassed for my part in it.

Why does it always immediately degrade into this? Everybody thinks they are right, and smarter than everyone else, and has to prove it, and thinks the problem is everybody else, and has no idea that they are actually the problem. Worst of all, I'm doing it right now.

Facts only from me from now on. No more opinion.

My apologies for my indiscretion in the past.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by valleyboy »

The one big problem with written forums is the fact that people interpret posts differently than the author intends. Personally I was upset that another low time pilot had a very tragic preventable accident. No personal attack or disrespect just speculation he was set up to fail by a piss poor training system.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by RatherBeFlying »

The dirty secret of night VFR is that you can suddenly be inside a cloud. Clouds are not lit. JFK Jr. is a prominent example of how you can get disoriented at night without even being in a cloud.

Like JFK Jr, I suspect this pilot did not realize the hazard of his situation. Both would most likely have waited for better conditions, had they understood the hazards they took off into.

It takes a little while to clue in that no lights on the ground and no visible stars adds up to being IMC. Now what are you going to do about it? Do you have a plan?
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Cliff Jumper »

Night began at 502pm.

Accident ocurred at 503pm.

---corrected.
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Last edited by Cliff Jumper on Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

Cliff Jumper wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:22 pm Night began at 514pm.

Accident ocurred at 503pm.
In Toronto. Kingston is 12 mins earlier.

For example, Civil twilight ends and night begins today at 1714 in Toronto, and 1702 local, in Kingston, and hasn’t moved much in three days.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Cliff Jumper »

Correct. My mistake.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by RatherBeFlying »

It's darker sooner with a low overcast, depending on how thick the clouds are - unless the setting sun breaks through below the cloud deck.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by CpnCrunch »

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/11/29/ ... continues/
Residents in the area also noted there was heavy rain and strong winds around the time of the crash.

“I was amazed that anybody was even flying last night because there was lots of notice that this windstorm was coming,” said Rob Gibson, who lives near the site of the crash.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by parallel60 »

PilotDAR wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:47 pm
No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?
Oh... I have made so many! Nearly died in one. Written about many others here, in the hope that newer pilots might consider what I think threatened the safety of my flight, could also threaten the safety of theirs. Maybe they're more skillful than I, or maybe more lucky....

In the mean time, the unfortunate pilot made some errors. However, more importantly to me, and not for the first time, people and pilots around him made some omissions.

Of course the pilot did not want to embark on a flight of danger, much less fatal - I give him the benefit of any doubt that he just did not give it enough consideration to balance the risk. Why did he not give it enough consideration? He does not appear in the videos to be bull headed, he seems a genuine caring pilot. So, I suppose that he just did not use the information he had available, to make a different decision, before it was too late.

I know not what weather he encountered enroute. I do know that the weather he chose to depart in would give me the shivers! My risk benefit analysis of departing in that weather at night at all, let alone with a plane load of people, would have resulted in a decision different to his. This, because I have departed in that type of weather, and lived to regret that decision, or, allowing another pilot to make that decision, and take me along.

So, we ll bear responsibility for this sad event.
Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot
I respect all pilots, including those who read here. I hope to impress newer pilots by inspiring them to consider their choices, before they have no choices left. Yes, in the past, I have quietly, and diplomatically said to an unknown pilot: "I would not be going flying right now", in the hope that annoying advice they did not ask, might be considered to alter a decision they were appearing to make. I have certainly told a fellow pilot who did not know any better that they should be scared right now, while in flight.

This sad event is a learning opportunity for new pilots, so should be discussed. More to the point, it is a reminder to we experienced pilots that we should not sit by silently, and let this kind of thing reoccur. How many accidents could I have prevented, had I been able to speak with the pilot about the risk of that flight, as my experience knew it to be, before they decided to fly....

This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....

Yes, seven people died, and that is very sad. It is a very sad milestone in aviation to incite discussion. I have also taken the opportunity to post to avoid such circumstances, without loss of life being the opener.
Amazing post Pilot Dar. I've flown the PA-32 and unfortunately made some bad decisions to go flying when I shouldn't have. I got lucky, and nothing happened. When I read this report it resonated with me. I've been flying commercially since 2003 and flown left seat on Airliners and when I look back, I still found flying that PA-32 in day and night VFR to be the most challenging flying I've ever done. So much can go wrong in a single engine VFR. Others may disagree and say that single flying was the easiest for them, no problem at all, I am just stating the type of flying I found to be the most challenging. I agree PilotDAR that if only one Pilot becomes a little bit safer after reading this thread than every post in here was worth it.

NEVER underestimate the potential hazards in Flying, or prepare to pay the ultimate price. I CARE about every Pilot and their Families and Friends, please fly safe all.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by anofly »

I will grant the departure weather looked "ok", near YOO and YTZ and YYZ so a somewhat local flight was going to work. I would be interested in the Trenton weather around departure time.
The GFA was indicating pretty tough ceilings and vis, for a vfr flight of any distance on that day.
It has been my experience when there is "scattered" cloud sitting beneath broken or overcast layers, and temps are dropping like they often do as the sun gets on with setting,somewhere nearby, not covered by a single point weather observation station, is something a lot more like broken ,and or overcast.
So i would be counting on finding some of that.
One has to keep in mind the sum of the GFA, Metars, TAF. not to mention Radar, freezing level, and daylight .
Would anyone have made that flight VFR if there were no metar reporting points? and the GFA was the only tool?
The GFA is never perfect, but its pretty darn good ,and somewhere out there , there is usually some of what they are serving up.
I understand we dont know everything about why this one went down. It is usually pretty rare to have airframe failure. It is not altogether impossible that control was lost, due to one or more challenges.
Sad for all involved, and SO close to a safe landing in Kingston...
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PA32pilot »

I am writing this not about the tragedy near Kingston, but in reply to those who think more training would help make better decision making. I am an IFR rated private pilot with 2000 hours on our Cherokee 6 . We have flown all over the US and Canada and cope with local weather phenomena. Almost every piece of aviation literature that I read has articles about weather, decision making, icing, VFR into IFR and risk management. No instructor could have taught me all I needed to know to deal with these situations. What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

Unfortunately the person who should answer that question is no longer able to.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by corethatthermal »

What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?
SPOT ON !
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