Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Topics related to accidents, incidents & over due aircraft should be placed in this forum.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore

User avatar
PilotDAR
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4053
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:46 pm
Location: Near CNJ4 Orillia, Ontario

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR »

What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?
I very much agree. And, I observe that many pilots earn their PPL, seemingly think that they "have arrived", and the training phase of flying is over. Someone, somewhere had told them they'd done well, and they relaxed. Perhaps the only time they realized they really should have been trying to learn more, was things were beyond recovery.

I recall just before my helicopter flight test, my instructor said to me in a mentoring way: "You've already proven you're a helicopter pilot, you just have to fly the test as a formality." Yes, it was reassuring. But, I recall doing a rather poor job of the autorotation, as the final exercise. I told the examiner that I though I did it poorly, and wanted to do it again for my own pride and satisfaction. He said I'd done fine (which I had not), and that I'd passed the flight test, and go back to the pad. I remember feeling a little cheated, I needed to do better, and needed more mentoring. The examiner could do it, but chose not to. I went back for more auto practice, there, and at other opportunities too. I'm still not as good as I'd like to be.

So yes, self motivated learning. But what motivates? The understanding that you don't know it all, with a fresh PPL, you know 5%, and the learning should just be beginning, with the same caution as during your initial training - 'cause now, no one has your back, unless you're specifically asking!
---------- ADS -----------
 
Cleared4TheOption
Rank 1
Rank 1
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:54 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Cleared4TheOption »

PA32pilot wrote: Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:48 pm I am writing this not about the tragedy near Kingston, but in reply to those who think more training would help make better decision making. I am an IFR rated private pilot with 2000 hours on our Cherokee 6 . We have flown all over the UgS and Canada and cope with local weather phenomena. Almost every piece of aviation literature that I read has articles about weather, decision making, icing, VFR into IFR and risk management. No instructor could have taught me all I needed to know to deal with these situations. What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?
***This is not an attack on the pilot, it's a learning opportunity***


While I agree that you can't be taught everything, a margin of safety needs to exist when you are self-learning new things. Learn from other's mistakes because you will never live to make them all yourself. Given what little I know, there was very little safety margin on this particular flight.

While 2000hrs is no small number for a private pilot, I hope you don't think that you've seen it all or that there is nothing left to learn. Myself I've been flying for almost 17 years and 4000hrs and I know I have TONS to learn. I make sure to consider my limits and leave a buffer. When self-learning new things that buffer needs to be much bigger in relation to the risk. From what I understand, this pilot had been flying for 2 years and I doubt over 1000hrs. 1000hrs is just enough time to get yourself into trouble due to over confidence in your abilities and thinking you don't need that buffer anymore. Again, learning by experience is fine but you need to have a plan if things go wrong or are beyond what you thought to expect, and don't take others with you when the risks are high. It's unlikely this pilot could have been taught anything to change the outcome of this flight. What could have been taught better was how big a risk this kind of flight is, and you won't "self learn" that lesson unless you almost kill yourself. Tragically, if this wasn't some freak incapacitation or structural failure he likely realized how big a mistake he make in the final minutes of his life. Had I been in his place ALONE without passengers I would have thought "This is it, I hope I don't kill anyone else on the way down". Unfortunately he had to think "I just killed my family and friends". That's painful.

I don't know what caused this accident. It could have been medical, it could have been a goose came through the windscreen, it could have been engine/structural failure, fuel starvation, a bag blocked a critical control, C of G shift, distraction by passengers, icing, turbulence or spacial disorientation. All I know is that if we are discussing the risks involved with this flight and learning from experience, this is an example of high risk with little consideration for a safety margin.

From a risk point of view it was very high. Low experience pilot (probably), unfamiliar area, low ceilings, patchy very low cloud and poor vis in precipitation, high winds and turbulence, moderate icing in cloud and precipitation, low light/night, max gross weight, single piston, no ice protection, no instrument rating (did the aircraft have IFR equipment?), no night rating, plenty of distraction onboard and probably pressure to get to their vacation destination asap due to reservations/limited time. Oh boy, that's a serious list. If I were even to consider a flight like that, it's not going to be with passengers knowing I am seriously risking my life. If everything goes perfect sure it will work out, but fly into a cloud and freezing drizzle without knowing until you notice you lost 25 knots... what now? Descend to warmer air? What if there is none? Turn back? Which way is clear air? How far is it? If the engine quits can you even find a clearing? If you loose your AH and the ceiling drops how are you going to stay upright? Even if he had 10000hrs that wouldn't make much difference except that different decisions would have been made.

All of that to say with all those risks there was no margin for error or failure. No way to get himself out of trouble if something unexpected happened, and did happen whatever that was. Even if the flight was in daylight there would have been few options, night/low light just took what little was left away.

And those quoting METARs and TAFs... a METAR only gives the weather directly over the airport, a TAF only gives the expected weather within 5 miles. What you encounter en route can be and often is significantly different especially with the weather that day. Also, the weather was moving east so big whoop it was nicer in Toronto, they were leaving the backside of the system to fly back into it. North Bay went to 3/8SM SN about 20 minutes before the wind died down and ceiling lifted.

For the record I was flying on the accident day in a much more capable aircraft... it was NOT easy.
---------- ADS -----------
 
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by pelmet »

PilotDAR wrote: Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:47 pm This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....
Excellent point. My distaste hits a high when someone trying to prevent these accidents in such a manner as described by PilotDAR yet is needlessly criticized by unidentifiable posters making some sort of personal attack, typically completely off subject. We should all be trying to do as is mentioned in the paragraph above.

Waiting for more facts is definitely a good idea, but there is certainly nothing wrong with discussing in a reasonable manner whether a low time pilot departing into certain conditions was a wise idea, even if those conditions did not cause an accident.
---------- ADS -----------
 
trey kule
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4762
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:09 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by trey kule »

Great. Lets discuss whether low time pilots should depart into poor weather.
And what can be done to help them make good decisions.

My previous point was two fold:
1. I do not think we have to do this after a recent tragedy. And , without facts, stating things like the pilot took off in deteriorating or bad weather. Course “I would never do that., “and
2. I think that basic PDM should not be about specific accidents. Just as few consider themselves part of the statistical group of unsafe drivers when they use their cellphone while driving, my experiences with pilots is they don’t relate in a meaningful way. Not too many posters on these threads who state ‘ there but for the grace of God, go I’.....and then actually change their decision making parameters.

Allow me to simplify it. Until you get a fair bit of experience at judging the outcome of your weather decisions, be very very cautious.
If you need to scare yourself finding the outcome of a decision was not as expected to learn, or can only learn by relating to tragedies , have a chat with yourself, hit the books and study weather...not just how to read a METAR or TAF, but things like how the METAR can give you an indication of the accuracy of the GFA. I have met alot of new CPL pilots who could not do this,
And...from me personally. Night VFR,outside the circuit, is IFR only. Remember that, and make absolute certain your aircraft is equipped for any forecast weather along route, and night time accidents will almost disappear.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Accident speculation:
Those that post don’t know. Those that know don’t post
CpnCrunch
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4011
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:38 am

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by CpnCrunch »

trey kule wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:25 am without facts, stating things like the pilot took off in deteriorating or bad weather.
But we do have the facts about the weather. We have the GFA, which was incredibly shitty 6hrs before, didn't change at the 0hr (or got worse...they added the freezing rain, which is somewhat predictable from a TROWAL), and we know the actual weather was incredibly shitty as well.

The benefit of reading accident reports and discussing accidents like this is that it builds up a bank of knowledge and how aircraft systems work (and fail), what are the risks of various types of weather, etc.
---------- ADS -----------
 
photofly
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 11306
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:47 pm
Location: Hangry and crankypated

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

trey kule wrote: Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:25 am 1. I do not think we have to do this after a recent tragedy.
Of course we do. It's exactly the right time to do it. Some people don't think about these issues. The accident pilot certainly didn't. Maybe a headline about FOUR DEAD ADULTS AND THREE DEAD CHILDREN will get these worthwhile ideas into a few more heads.
---------- ADS -----------
 
DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
trey kule
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4762
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:09 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by trey kule »

Really?

You have to read about a tragic end for seven people to learn not to take off or fly in bad weather? To learn that night VFR has some hidden hazards? Not to fly over gross?

Or maybe it is all about reminding people that these are important things a pilot should actually know (without being reminded)

I fail to understand why a case study could not be made on a similar accident from, say , five years ago.

When these accidents occur they affect families, friends, even associates of those lost.
Is the lust for fresh blood so strong that we must all jump in and speculate.

There are few new causes of accidents . And lots of old ones where all the facts are available to discuss them in detail.

Read the posts here. Everyone is piling on adding or arguing facts. How many people reading this said “gosh, I guess I learned not to fly in bad weather”? You don’t see much evidence of that reading through the posts.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Accident speculation:
Those that post don’t know. Those that know don’t post
photofly
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 11306
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:47 pm
Location: Hangry and crankypated

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly »

trey kule wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:45 pm Really?

You have to read about a tragic end for seven people to learn not to take off or fly in bad weather?
This story is recent, widely reported outside of the aviation bubble, and (to me) local. Family and friends have raised it for discussion. It resonates. I think a lot of people, including some junior pilots, have learned a real lesson from this. In a way they might not from a five-year-old case study from before they first looked at an airplane. I don't see why the online response should be any different from the face-to-face one. It should be widely talked about, not hushed up out of "respect" - that benefits nobody. Who knows what sources of information or discussion that Mr. Oblokulov might have read in his past would have steered him to make different decisions last week. Maybe reading this thread will help the next person.
How many people reading this said “gosh, I guess I learned not to fly in bad weather”? You don’t see much evidence of that reading through the posts.
There are maybe 10 contributors, and 6092 views of this thread. It has clearly been read by some who have not contributed to it. I couldn't say for sure who has learned what, but I think it has been worthwhile.
---------- ADS -----------
 
DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
jakeandelwood
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 453
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:45 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by jakeandelwood »

Whenever a tragic accident like this happens it always gives me a bit of a shudder and makes me think to myself how vulnerable we are and that it just takes 4 or 5 bad decisions in a row until the shit hits the fan. Reading these discussions helps to maybe see how everything lined up to cause this accident.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4403
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by rookiepilot »

jakeandelwood wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:41 pm Whenever a tragic accident like this happens it always gives me a bit of a shudder and makes me think to myself how vulnerable we are and that it just takes 4 or 5 bad decisions in a row until the shit hits the fan. Reading these discussions helps to maybe see how everything lined up to cause this accident.
This.

It's each pilot, processing the chain of events that makes this thread valuable.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Last edited by rookiepilot on Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
digits_
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5930
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:26 am

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by digits_ »

trey kule wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:45 pm Really?

You have to read about a tragic end for seven people to learn not to take off or fly in bad weather? To learn that night VFR has some hidden hazards? Not to fly over gross?

Or maybe it is all about reminding people that these are important things a pilot should actually know (without being reminded)

I fail to understand why a case study could not be made on a similar accident from, say , five years ago.
Most of us know about the dryden crash caused by icing 30 years ago. Using the above logic, one could have said that the ATR crash in Fond-du-Lac a few years ago didn't teach us anything knew and shouldn't have been discussed. Yet it lead to Alpa/Transport to organise a mass pilot survey about flying in icing conditions, caused a bunch of pilots to insist on deicing in conditions that were previously not deemed dangerous, and a bunch of shady operators to be afraid to be caught with their pants down by unexpected TC visits.

The mind is a complex weird thing. A crash 20 years ago in an airplane type new pilots have never heard about has way less effect than a recent crash in an airplane type you might be flying, happening around an airport you visited just last week.

So please, discuss. If it even helps to convince one pilot to cancel their trip into marginal weather, it might give some meaning to the lives lost.
---------- ADS -----------
 
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
pelmet
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 7138
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:48 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by pelmet »

Still haven't seen the Taf's for YGK and YTR. The ones on Toronto looked not so bad. I remember a long time ago, going on a cross country flight which wasn't very long and the TAFs showed the possibility of thunderstorms at all locations but that seemed to me to be not unusual for a warm summer day. I ended up getting involved with a really nasty cold front with severe thunderstorms all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico with tornados killing a bunch of people in the US and strong, strong thunderstorms up in Canada. It was an interesting flight.

Unfortunately, I didn't check the area forecast of the weather charts and relied on just the TAF's which did not give the full picture. I wonder if something similar happened here.

Check the area forecasts as well as the TAF's.
---------- ADS -----------
 
anofly
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 256
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:46 am

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by anofly »

Cmon Trey.
The GFA was horrible, the (rather few available) metars fairly encouraging. this does not happen all that often where they are so widely different..
When the decision to go was made , probably thought they would be there before night, but you know how the time goes getting 7 folks sorted, loaded, not to mention PB4Ugo etc....
lots to learn here...
Add in american, low time, maybe not crazy familiar with our GFA products.......
you could probably fire up a PA32 and be off in 10 mins and headed east, sorting out the GPS while moving in the general direction of... others may take 10 mins messing with GPS , and another 15 getting to runway , figuring out what a mandatory freq is and figuring out airspace to get them headed east....
so close to the runway......sad...
---------- ADS -----------
 
geneticistx
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 174
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2016 6:07 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by geneticistx »

FIC provides free weather briefings.

As i have read in here before...the pilot used every skill, training and experience to prevent the aircraft from losing control and hitting terrain.
---------- ADS -----------
 
CpnCrunch
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4011
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:38 am

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by CpnCrunch »

geneticistx wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:28 am FIC provides free weather briefings.

As i have read in here before...the pilot used every skill, training and experience to prevent the aircraft from losing control and hitting terrain.
There's an eye opening article in this month's COPA magazine. A FIC briefer recounted 3 instances of cases where he advised the pilots not to proceed, but they did so anyway and died. The third time it happened, he remembered the previous two fatal accidents, and tried to persuade the pilot to delay the journey, but he didn't and died.

Unfortunately some people just can't be helped. Not sure if that applies to this case, or if the pilot just didn't bother getting any weather briefing (whether from an FIC, or self-briefing from the GFA).
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
PilotDAR
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4053
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:46 pm
Location: Near CNJ4 Orillia, Ontario

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR »

Not sure if that applies to this case, or if the pilot just didn't bother getting any weather briefing (whether from an FIC, or self-briefing from the GFA).
My mind extends to thinking that the unfortunate pilot just failed to resist other factors pressing him to fly. He seems to have been a diligent, caring pilot form the information made public - the kind of pilot I'd consider lending a plane to. Perhaps he had the relevant weather information, but just hoped it was not that bad, and perhaps applied the "southern" perspective, on northern winter weather.

I think that the message here is to have the confidence in your skills of judgement to say "we'll fly later". Pilots should remind themselves that the disappointment of saying "we're not flying now" to a plane full of passengers is still okay, and part of piloting responsibility.
---------- ADS -----------
 
digits_
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5930
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2011 2:26 am

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by digits_ »

CpnCrunch wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:50 am
geneticistx wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:28 am FIC provides free weather briefings.

As i have read in here before...the pilot used every skill, training and experience to prevent the aircraft from losing control and hitting terrain.
There's an eye opening article in this month's COPA magazine. A FIC briefer recounted 3 instances of cases where he advised the pilots not to proceed, but they did so anyway and died. The third time it happened, he remembered the previous two fatal accidents, and tried to persuade the pilot to delay the journey, but he didn't and died.

Unfortunately some people just can't be helped. Not sure if that applies to this case, or if the pilot just didn't bother getting any weather briefing (whether from an FIC, or self-briefing from the GFA).
Some anecdotal evidence to the contrary....

I was ferrying a small VFR only single engine piston with a very limited fuel range. I was in an area with limited weather report station, like you would find on most canadian flights that take you more than 100 NM away from the US border. Anyway, weather forecast didn't look good for my next leg. There was a danger of low visilibity being forecasted at my destination airport due to fog. I called the FIC to get an updated briefing. The lady at the phone told me that I could probably make it if I left RIGHT NOW. I asked for more information on where the fog was coming from, where the bad weather was located etc. At the end of the phone conversation I told her I wanted to cancel my flight plan. She asked me, verbatim, "Are you sure? If you leave right now you can make it". I told her I wasn't going. I could detect a sigh in her voice as she cancelled my flight plan.

The next day, the weather cleared up and I proceeded to my next destination. I landed and started chatting with some local people on the airport. They told me how the weather the day before was terrible. I checked historical METAR information, and they were right. If I had left on that flight, I would not have made it to the destination and would have been right in it. I might not have made it to any other airport. Best case scenario I would have been able to crash land the plane in some remote area. Not nice.

If I would have been in this situation at the beginning of my career, I might not have cancelled after that phone call. I might have left, and I might have ended up in some newspaper.
---------- ADS -----------
 
As an AvCanada discussion grows longer:
-the probability of 'entitlement' being mentioned, approaches 1
-one will be accused of using bad airmanship
User avatar
rookiepilot
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4403
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by rookiepilot »

Some FIC staff are very good with weather briefings.

Some......aren't.

The TAF's at the destination airports don't even matter in this case. Not a question mark at all.

My rules for night VFR flight, have been essentially severe clear.

I doubt that was the case on this night.
---------- ADS -----------
 
corethatthermal
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by corethatthermal »

She asked me, verbatim, "Are you sure? If you leave right now you can make it"
I have NEVER heard a FSS specialist say those words or anything remote, Often it is the other way, painting a more negative picture than is the actual case ( post flight personal debriefing ) I CANNOT say enough wonderful things about FSS on the ground or in the air! Great folks to work with indeed !!!
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
PilotDAR
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4053
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 6:46 pm
Location: Near CNJ4 Orillia, Ontario

Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR »

I CANNOT say enough wonderful things about FSS on the ground or in the air! Great folks to work with indeed !!!
Quite agreed. Though, on a couple of occasions, which were wind, not visibility related, I have been told by FSS that I'm better to go sooner than wait.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “Accidents, Incidents & Overdue Aircraft”