PA32pilot wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2019 3:48 pm
I am writing this not about the tragedy near Kingston, but in reply to those who think more training would help make better decision making. I am an IFR rated private pilot with 2000 hours on our Cherokee 6 . We have flown all over the UgS and Canada and cope with local weather phenomena. Almost every piece of aviation literature that I read has articles about weather, decision making, icing, VFR into IFR and risk management. No instructor could have taught me all I needed to know to deal with these situations.
What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?
***This is not an attack on the pilot, it's a learning opportunity***
While I agree that you can't be taught everything, a margin of safety needs to exist when you are self-learning new things. Learn from other's mistakes because you will never live to make them all yourself. Given what little I know, there was very little safety margin on this particular flight.
While 2000hrs is no small number for a private pilot, I hope you don't think that you've seen it all or that there is nothing left to learn. Myself I've been flying for almost 17 years and 4000hrs and I know I have TONS to learn. I make sure to consider my limits and leave a buffer. When self-learning new things that buffer needs to be much bigger in relation to the risk. From what I understand, this pilot had been flying for 2 years and I doubt over 1000hrs. 1000hrs is just enough time to get yourself into trouble due to over confidence in your abilities and thinking you don't need that buffer anymore. Again, learning by experience is fine but you need to have a plan if things go wrong or are beyond what you thought to expect, and don't take others with you when the risks are high. It's unlikely this pilot could have been taught anything to change the outcome of this flight. What could have been taught better was how big a risk this kind of flight is, and you won't "self learn" that lesson unless you almost kill yourself. Tragically, if this wasn't some freak incapacitation or structural failure he likely realized how big a mistake he make in the final minutes of his life. Had I been in his place ALONE without passengers I would have thought "This is it, I hope I don't kill anyone else on the way down". Unfortunately he had to think "I just killed my family and friends". That's painful.
I don't know what caused this accident. It could have been medical, it could have been a goose came through the windscreen, it could have been engine/structural failure, fuel starvation, a bag blocked a critical control, C of G shift, distraction by passengers, icing, turbulence or spacial disorientation. All I know is that if we are discussing the risks involved with this flight and learning from experience, this is an example of high risk with little consideration for a safety margin.
From a risk point of view it was very high. Low experience pilot (probably), unfamiliar area, low ceilings, patchy very low cloud and poor vis in precipitation, high winds and turbulence, moderate icing in cloud and precipitation, low light/night, max gross weight, single piston, no ice protection, no instrument rating (did the aircraft have IFR equipment?), no night rating, plenty of distraction onboard and probably pressure to get to their vacation destination asap due to reservations/limited time. Oh boy, that's a serious list. If I were even to consider a flight like that, it's not going to be with passengers knowing I am seriously risking my life. If everything goes perfect sure it will work out, but fly into a cloud and freezing drizzle without knowing until you notice you lost 25 knots... what now? Descend to warmer air? What if there is none? Turn back? Which way is clear air? How far is it? If the engine quits can you even find a clearing? If you loose your AH and the ceiling drops how are you going to stay upright? Even if he had 10000hrs that wouldn't make much difference except that different decisions would have been made.
All of that to say with all those risks there was no margin for error or failure. No way to get himself out of trouble if something unexpected happened, and did happen whatever that was. Even if the flight was in daylight there would have been few options, night/low light just took what little was left away.
And those quoting METARs and TAFs... a METAR only gives the weather directly over the airport, a TAF only gives the expected weather within 5 miles. What you encounter en route can be and often is significantly different especially with the weather that day. Also, the weather was moving east so big whoop it was nicer in Toronto, they were leaving the backside of the system to fly back into it. North Bay went to 3/8SM SN about 20 minutes before the wind died down and ceiling lifted.
For the record I was flying on the accident day in a much more capable aircraft... it was NOT easy.