Corona Virus

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Eric Janson
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Corona Virus

Post by Eric Janson »

This is something you need to start paying attention to. Looks like a Black Swan event.

Quarantining 40+ Million people is an indication that this is a lot more serious than is being admitted to. The Chinese have clearly failed to contain the spread of this virus - and clearly lied about the number of cases/deaths.

Aviation will take a nosedive as people stop travelling.

Not a great time to be an Expat Pilot in China - anyone there who can provide some more details about what is going on?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -shortages

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... s-response

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-pr ... inese-city

The next 7-10 days will give a much clearer picture of just how bad things are going to get.
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twa22
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by twa22 »

When I found out and realized that the seasonal flu kills up to half a million people a year, I also realized that the media may be blowing this out of proportion just a little.. Yea it's obviously not good, but I think we need to calm down a little. I was certainly freaked out at first, but not so much anymore
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'97 Tercel
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by '97 Tercel »

Lesson learned: Don't eat Bat soup and live snakes and other weird sh$t.
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2R
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 2R »

Any beer you have to suck through a lime should be avoided .
Are the Corona virus' as bad as 40 pounder flu ?

The ordinary flu does not close schools , airports , trains ,or have barricades erected around cities to keep people in place .

We live in interesting times.

Penicillin was discovered by accident in a sloppy lab .
Who knows what may have escaped from another sloppy lab on someone's shoe ?
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GoinVertical
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by GoinVertical »

(Using American flu stats since they have larger data sets than Canada...)

US mortality rate of influenza (2017-2018 season) was around 0.15%. That's rounding up, and all other reason seasons had lower mortality rates.

Current mortality rate of nCoV is around 2.4%, but in reality may be higher given that there are more new diagnoses each day, and in a few days/weeks, they could lead to deaths. We can talk about Chinese vs Western health care, but again, it's very possible that the mortality rate increases as time goes on...

Even at 2.4% mortality, if Americans contract nCoV as much in a year as influenza in 2017/18, we are talking over 1,000,000 deaths in the USA alone. Compared to 61,000 deaths due to influenza in 2017/18.
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Inverted2
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Inverted2 »

I sure wouldn’t want to be on any flights to/from China right now. I’m surprised Air Canada is still going there. Apparently you can be contagious with this virus before you show any symptoms of having it which makes spreading it that much easier. And if you think only 100 people in China have died, do you trust anything they say?
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goldeneagle
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by goldeneagle »

GoinVertical wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:28 am (Using American flu stats since they have larger data sets than Canada...)

US mortality rate of influenza (2017-2018 season) was around 0.15%. That's rounding up, and all other reason seasons had lower mortality rates.

Current mortality rate of nCoV is around 2.4%, but in reality may be higher given that there are more new diagnoses each day, and in a few days/weeks, they could lead to deaths. We can talk about Chinese vs Western health care, but again, it's very possible that the mortality rate increases as time goes on...

Even at 2.4% mortality, if Americans contract nCoV as much in a year as influenza in 2017/18, we are talking over 1,000,000 deaths in the USA alone. Compared to 61,000 deaths due to influenza in 2017/18.
Your numbers are incorrect. You are comparing the death rate of influenza against the entire population (61K deaths out of 300million folks) to get a death rate of 0.15%. The 2.4% rate you quote is 2.4% of those with the infection confirmed, not the entire population. If indeed death rate is 2.4% of the entire population, then of the 40 million in quarantine now you would expect a million deaths.

And this is how you get a hysterical panic going, folks quoting numbers that are off by a few decimal places...
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twa22
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by twa22 »

goldeneagle wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:23 pm
GoinVertical wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:28 am (Using American flu stats since they have larger data sets than Canada...)

US mortality rate of influenza (2017-2018 season) was around 0.15%. That's rounding up, and all other reason seasons had lower mortality rates.

Current mortality rate of nCoV is around 2.4%, but in reality may be higher given that there are more new diagnoses each day, and in a few days/weeks, they could lead to deaths. We can talk about Chinese vs Western health care, but again, it's very possible that the mortality rate increases as time goes on...

Even at 2.4% mortality, if Americans contract nCoV as much in a year as influenza in 2017/18, we are talking over 1,000,000 deaths in the USA alone. Compared to 61,000 deaths due to influenza in 2017/18.
Your numbers are incorrect. You are comparing the death rate of influenza against the entire population (61K deaths out of 300million folks) to get a death rate of 0.15%. The 2.4% rate you quote is 2.4% of those with the infection confirmed, not the entire population. If indeed death rate is 2.4% of the entire population, then of the 40 million in quarantine now you would expect a million deaths.

And this is how you get a hysterical panic going, folks quoting numbers that are off by a few decimal places...
Uh, 61,000 divided by 300,000,000 = 0.000203 x 100 = 0.02%

so he wasn't comparing it against the entire US population, but of those infected, which was roughly 29 million last year in the use. Do the math on that and you get 0.15% mortality rate (it's actually 0.21% but who's counting)

But still, leaving math aside, it still is mass hysteria no matter which way you slice it. If it was 20% mortality, and not mainly people over 60, I would be much more concerned
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rookiepilot
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by rookiepilot »

Us - China flights may be suspended

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/the-wh ... s-20200128
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TheStig
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by TheStig »

Flu causes about 12,200 hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths in Canada each year. Vaccinations are free and recommended every 6 months. I don't understand how a culture that wears masks that don't stop prevent infection is fine with hanging dead animals outside in shop windows?
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GoinVertical
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by GoinVertical »

goldeneagle wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:23 pm
GoinVertical wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:28 am (Using American flu stats since they have larger data sets than Canada...)

US mortality rate of influenza (2017-2018 season) was around 0.15%. That's rounding up, and all other reason seasons had lower mortality rates.

Current mortality rate of nCoV is around 2.4%, but in reality may be higher given that there are more new diagnoses each day, and in a few days/weeks, they could lead to deaths. We can talk about Chinese vs Western health care, but again, it's very possible that the mortality rate increases as time goes on...

Even at 2.4% mortality, if Americans contract nCoV as much in a year as influenza in 2017/18, we are talking over 1,000,000 deaths in the USA alone. Compared to 61,000 deaths due to influenza in 2017/18.
Your numbers are incorrect. You are comparing the death rate of influenza against the entire population (61K deaths out of 300million folks) to get a death rate of 0.15%. The 2.4% rate you quote is 2.4% of those with the infection confirmed, not the entire population. If indeed death rate is 2.4% of the entire population, then of the 40 million in quarantine now you would expect a million deaths.

And this is how you get a hysterical panic going, folks quoting numbers that are off by a few decimal places...
My numbers are from the CDC. Feel free to check my math, but please show your work and don't just come here calling me incorrect.
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

The current mortality rate is based on known cases, and there is much discussion that the true number of cases is MUCH greater than the confirmed cases, because the confirmed cases result from severe symptoms leading those individuals to seek medical attention (tip of the iceberg), possibly by a factor of 10. Meaning the mortality rate is likely lower than is currently calculated, not greater.
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GoinVertical
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by GoinVertical »

Blowin' In The Wind wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 6:22 pm The current mortality rate is based on known cases, and there is much discussion that the true number of cases is MUCH greater than the confirmed cases, because the confirmed cases result from severe symptoms leading those individuals to seek medical attention (tip of the iceberg), possibly by a factor of 10. Meaning the mortality rate is likely lower than is currently calculated, not greater.
Absolutely a possibility. There has also been talk of unreported deaths, having been blamed on pneumonia due to influenza or other things. That will skew it in the other direction.

Also important to consider the demographics of Wuhan, if there is a larger population of the very old or very young, a higher mortality rate is to be expected.

As of right now, given confirmed cases and confirmed deaths, it's between 2.18% and 2.35%.

If that's off by a factor of ten, then best case it has a similar mortality rate to influenza.

We also have to think about transmission rates...

I don't think we will have accurate numbers for at least another week.
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A346Dude
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by A346Dude »

Inverted2 wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:35 am Apparently you can be contagious with this virus before you show any symptoms of having it which makes spreading it that much easier.
Sure, but colds and the flu are also generally contagious before symptoms begin. Now the lag time may be more or less, but this feature alone doesn't appear to make it more dangerous than other viruses.
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7ECA
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 7ECA »

The asymptomatic and contagious thing is a common attribute of many illnesses - including more common influenza. Not particularly novel, in the case of 2019-nCoV. As a matter of fact, rather normal...

People around the world freaked the @#$! out about SARS, a disease which infected less than 9,000 people (confirmed cases) and killed under 1,000 people (approximately 10% mortality rate). Even with large spikes in cases of 2019-nCoV, the death rate has been relatively low in comparison to many other illnesses; will it rise? of course it will. But, it's proving to be a manageable illness thus far as long as people get proper medical attention prior to developing severe reparatory symptoms. What is the demographic being heavily represented in deaths thus far? the elderly (although I expect to also see the elderly joined by those with weakened/compromised immune systems, and possibly the very young as well...) which is pretty standard for influenza and a variety of other ailments/illnesses. What has emerged as the leading cause of death is complications resulting from pneumonia; better known as the "old mans friend". You want panic, find a disease like Spanish Flu that is really novel in the sense that it killed young adults and the generally healthy in disproportionately higher amounts than any other age group - that's terrifying.

The thing that is a bit terrifying is how quickly people have jumped into wild conspiracy theories about this coronavirus outbreak, which is leading to unnecessary panic. The Chinese (along with the rest of the world) learned quite a few lessons from SARS, and other virulent outbreaks, and have jumped into things with both feet the way only a totalitarian nation can - massive quarantines.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by FOD »

7ECA wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 11:05 pm The asymptomatic and contagious thing is a common attribute of many illnesses - including more common influenza. Not particularly novel, in the case of 2019-nCoV. As a matter of fact, rather normal...

People around the world freaked the @#$! out about SARS, a disease which infected less than 9,000 people (confirmed cases) and killed under 1,000 people (approximately 10% mortality rate). Even with large spikes in cases of 2019-nCoV, the death rate has been relatively low in comparison to many other illnesses; will it rise? of course it will. But, it's proving to be a manageable illness thus far as long as people get proper medical attention prior to developing severe reparatory symptoms. What is the demographic being heavily represented in deaths thus far? the elderly (although I expect to also see the elderly joined by those with weakened/compromised immune systems, and possibly the very young as well...) which is pretty standard for influenza and a variety of other ailments/illnesses. What has emerged as the leading cause of death is complications resulting from pneumonia; better known as the "old mans friend". You want panic, find a disease like Spanish Flu that is really novel in the sense that it killed young adults and the generally healthy in disproportionately higher amounts than any other age group - that's terrifying.

The thing that is a bit terrifying is how quickly people have jumped into wild conspiracy theories about this coronavirus outbreak, which is leading to unnecessary panic. The Chinese (along with the rest of the world) learned quite a few lessons from SARS, and other virulent outbreaks, and have jumped into things with both feet the way only a totalitarian nation can - massive quarantines.
I think you are incorrect about what the World or China might have learned from SARS. Quite the opposite in fact. The World, and especially China have learned nothing. Reliable sources indicate a world wide shortage of effective face masks. Reliable sources report frontier/border screening being totally ineffective and pointless. Hygiene practices, which are the most effective counter measure to these simple outbreaks, in China are non-existent. The new generation’s beloved social media being used widely for misinformation by both spheres of the modern World.
This will get far worse before it gets better. It’s not the end of times obviously, but it’s not the best of times either. Especially if you are in ‘quarantine’.
FOD
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by TheStig »

Air Canada has suspended flights to Beijing and Shanghai.

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2020-01 ... g-Shanghai
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Last edited by TheStig on Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by CL-Skadoo! »

Or, you know...Air Canada Suspends Flights to Beijing, Shanghai
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by jpilot77 »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/british-a ... 1580287525

Not just AC, British Airways, Cathay, American...
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by digits_ »

CL-Skadoo! wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:36 pm
Or, you know...Air Canada Suspends Flights to Beijing, Shanghai
Would that be because of the corona virus, or is it merely an excuse to cancel flights so they have more planes available to temporarily replace the 737 max?
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