Corona Virus

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geodoc
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Re: Corona Virus

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Castorero
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Castorero »

I think this may very well be more serious than it appears given China's reaction.

I suspect they may already know more than we do. Time will tell.

Infectious disease experts have long felt that the viral plague which may decimate millions, will froth forth from China.

Is this the one?

On a positive note, the emergence of SARS, EBOLA, ZIKA and others, has been a boon to the vaccine development industry.
Whereas it used to take years to develop a vaccine a few years ago, we are now down to a few months.

The expectation is that a vaccine ready for treatment, not trials, will be ready by early Summer.
The challenge will be in the ability to ramp up production sufficiently.
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2R
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 2R »

No need to panic , yet.
When they start building fever sheds at the airports , that will be the time to worry .
They are still being coy about how many mutations the first virus has made. Shutting down major cities began at the 8 official death mark .
Airports ,train stations, bus stations ,highways closed
And only 171 officially dead ?
As Seinfield would say " Really "
Why would they shut down if it was just one virus .seems odd it mutated so quickly. More likely more than one virus got stuck to someone's shoe at the Lab , or
Somebody at one of those weapons labs has probably gone postal and released a few bugs for entertainment.

How long before before other countries capital cities are shut down ? As a purely precautionary measure " out of an abundance of caution " :)
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C-GGGQ
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by C-GGGQ »

Mortality rate is quite low for a virus and most people are recovering already. We just like to panic. Oh and a new Bird flu (h5n6 or something) has sprung up as well. India is still dealing with H1N1 or Swine flu
2015 India outbreak Edit
Main article: 2015 Indian swine flu outbreak
Swine flu was reported in India in early 2015. The disease affected more than 31,000 people and claimed over 1,900 lives.
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complexintentions
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by complexintentions »

Zerohedge?

C'mon.

According to their own projection, by today (Jan 31) there should be 16,350 confirmed cases with 337 deaths. But one of the major sites tracking the virus shows 9,776 confirmed and 213 deaths. Not wonderful but mathematically wayyyy off the alarmist predictions.

I am all for taking sensible precautions, but proportionate to the risk. An elderly resident of Wuhan with a compromised immune system is at far more risk than any young healthy resident of Canada. But since we live in an age of apocalyptic fear spread primarily by social media, of course people will be scared.

Just get a sweet rig like this one.

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vanc ... os-2054517

bottle-head.jpg;w=960.jpeg
bottle-head.jpg;w=960.jpeg (195.57 KiB) Viewed 1753 times
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »


Hahaha yes
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cjp
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by cjp »

doiwannabeapilot wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:01 pm as the great Kent Brockman once said,
"it's in Revelations people !"

P.S. I think its the Illuminati.
CIA bio warfare, destabilize the government by destabilizing the people.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by rookiepilot »

US Gov't has introduced certain quarantine procedures.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Inverted2 »

complexintentions wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:29 am Zerohedge?

C'mon.

According to their own projection, by today (Jan 31) there should be 16,350 confirmed cases with 337 deaths. But one of the major sites tracking the virus shows 9,776 confirmed and 213 deaths. Not wonderful but mathematically wayyyy off the alarmist predictions.

I am all for taking sensible precautions, but proportionate to the risk. An elderly resident of Wuhan with a compromised immune system is at far more risk than any young healthy resident of Canada. But since we live in an age of apocalyptic fear spread primarily by social media, of course people will be scared.

Just get a sweet rig like this one.

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/vanc ... os-2054517


bottle-head.jpg;w=960.jpeg
Someone should put a cap on that jug. :mrgreen:
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complexintentions
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by complexintentions »

cjp wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:32 am
doiwannabeapilot wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:01 pm as the great Kent Brockman once said,
"it's in Revelations people !"

P.S. I think its the Illuminati.
CIA bio warfare, destabilize the government by destabilizing the people.
Remember to make sure the reflective shiny side of the tinfoil is on the outside of your hat, dull side in.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Gannet167 »

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cjp
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by cjp »

complexintentions wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 4:40 am
cjp wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:32 am
doiwannabeapilot wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:01 pm as the great Kent Brockman once said,
"it's in Revelations people !"

P.S. I think its the Illuminati.
CIA bio warfare, destabilize the government by destabilizing the people.
Remember to make sure the reflective shiny side of the tinfoil is on the outside of your hat, dull side in.
Lol - like this?

Image
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Eric Janson
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Eric Janson »

Spare a thought for our flight and cabin crew colleagues who are doing evacuation flights out of China.

I see one of my company's aircraft is in Wuhan at present.
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7ECA
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 7ECA »

Assuming they aren't coming into contact with the "great unwashed masses", and that they wash their hands and practice generally accepted best practices for hygiene; the risk of contracting the virus is about the same as any other virus.

I find it interesting that people (read conspiracy theorists) are drawing a conclusion of sorts between the large scale quarantine efforts in China and the idea that the government has something to hide... Quarantines have proven effective at halting the spread of contagious disease since the Black Death - actually, that's about when the first efforts at isolation and quarantine were made; I believe it was the Italians who came up with the idea at their ports. The original timeline was 40 days, apparently a biblical reference to the 40 days/40 nights in the desert. Seemed to work fairly well, at least in communities who practiced it religiously.
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Eric Janson
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Eric Janson »

@7ECA

I'm trying to remember the last time 50+ Million people were quarantined - this is huge Red Flag imho.



Having lived in Asia and spent time in China - I have seen first hand how things (don't) work. The levels of Incompetence would shock you.

I have no doubt that the true extent of this outbreak has not been revealed by the Chinese government.

They've lost control of the situation imho - not a surprise given the fact that appointments are not based on merit. It's the Peter Principle in action.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mayor ... es-weekend

The last paragraph is the one to remember.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Zerohedge - they frequently cover stories you won't read in the Mainstream Media.

As for comparisons to seasonal Flu - this appears to have double the infectious rate, 30 times the mortality rate and 14 times the initial asymptomatic period (in which the virus is communicable).

This is a very serious situation imho.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by RedAndWhiteBaron »

I lived and worked in downtown Toronto through SARS. It was bad - really bad - as I'm sure anyone here who lived through it can attest. I wore a mask. The fear was real. I can't speak for the incompetence of the Chinese government, but I can speak for the competence of ours. SARS changed everything, and for the better IMHO.

Put it this way - I'm grateful that we have SARS behind us for this. Coronavirus seems worse, and more deadly, but I think we're far, far better prepared for it than we were for SARS. Yes, 40 million people (ish?) in quarantine is bad, but with the world being recently reminded of how to stage a global quarantine effort, I have faith.

This too, will pass. Many more will perish, but this too will pass.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Daniel Cooper »

How does a quarantine and evacuation flights go together? Either this is the worst quarantine ever or it's all for show.

"Peg, I'm trying to control an outbreak and you're driving the monkey to the airport!"
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by complexintentions »

It could be the reason they're quarantining 50 million people is...they've learned a few things from, and since, SARS...?

Last line from ZH article:
The officials need to think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions," he said, which is all one needs to know about any "facts" coming out of China.
If one honestly believes that every politician in the US, Canada, or elsewhere doesn't absolutely "think about the political angle and social stability in order to keep their positions" you simply aren't living in reality.

I too have experienced shocking incompetence in Asia, but as someone who's relocated back to the West I can tell you China by no means has any monopoly on corrupt, inept and ineffectual institutions. God help Europe if the same outbreak were taking place here and the EU was running the response. Ironically, it's the totalitarian nature of their regime there that is allowing China to impose such draconian measures. Meanwhile in Canada the response is mainly to publish hand-wringing editorials warning against racism if anyone dares to suggest cutting transport links to the epicentre of a global viral outbreak. Apparently a geographical area is a race now. The virtue-signalling will end up killing people yet.

As far as zerohedge, suspected dodgy numbers is not a rationale for making up your own numbers, nor is the plural of personal anecdotes "data".

Could you post some math that substantiates your claims that coronavirus has mortality rates many multiples higher than seasonal flu, please? Not disagreeing, just would like to see it.

But to expand on the perspective given earlier - according to this article:

- in a bad year, flu kills 61,000 people in the US. So far this flu season, an estimated 10,000 people have died of the flu in the US, including 68 children. As of today the reported worldwide deaths from coronavirus have just topped 300, with virtually all of them of a similar profile: elderly, and/or pre-existing medical conditions. It should be noted that at this point, ALL of the deaths have been within China save 1... a traveller infected in China. Of course the numbers outside of China can and will increase, but it's a somewhat compelling argument that the Chinese have not "lost control" - not yet, anyway.
- so far this season, there have been an estimated 19 million flu cases in the US. Current reported cases of coronavirus - 14,628 worldwide with 14,451 in China. The coronavirus has some catching up to do. Hopefully, it won't.

Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread


Mapping 2019-nCoV - John Hopkins CSSE
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

Eric Janson wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:51 pm @7ECA



I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Zerohedge - they frequently cover stories you won't read in the Mainstream Media.



This is a very serious situation imho.

Respectfully, Zerohedge is a pile of steaming trash that has a long and well-documented history of publishing outright falsehoods and click-bait conspiracy.
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Re: Corona Virus

Post by 7ECA »

Eric Janson wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 11:51 pm @7ECA

I'm trying to remember the last time 50+ Million people were quarantined - this is huge Red Flag imho.

As for comparisons to seasonal Flu - this appears to have double the infectious rate, 30 times the mortality rate and 14 times the initial asymptomatic period (in which the virus is communicable).

This is a very serious situation imho.
It's not a red flag, is a reasonable response to try and limit the spread of an infectious disease. You know, the same sort of thing Europeans did during the plague, but apparently that was different and this is "novel". But I digress...

As for your comparisons, you're way off. Panicky, paranoid, and way off. 2019-nCoV has miles to go before it comes anywhere near being as infectious as "run of the mill" influenza - and the mortality rate of around 2% (thus far) is not at all frightening. And why, please god why, do people keep going back and harping on the asymptomatic period? Tons of diseases are contagious while asymptomatic, "regular" influenza, measles, mononucleosis, typhoid (say hello, again, to Typhoid Mary), HIV, c. difficile, polio, etc...

Yes, it is a serious situation; and one which thus far has been handled in a manner that only a totalitarian nation can - large scale enforced quarantines. Am I afraid of catching 2019-nCoV in Canada? Not really. If, and it is a big if, we start to see large exponentially growing outbreaks elsewhere (outside of China) then my level of concern will increase.
complexintentions wrote: Sun Feb 02, 2020 6:55 am It could be the reason they're quarantining 50 million people is...they've learned a few things from, and since, SARS...?
Gosh, could it? You know, people get really bent out of shape when you talk about governments learning lessons from other outbreaks - apparently SARS was an unmitigated catastrophe.
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