AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

[Daniel Cooper]

If they don't get out of this I expect CR's legacy will be this right move at the wrong time.

[FL-280]

Fingers crossed, they get out of this. Flights are empty right now. Last thing we need is more capacity

[derateNO]

Might be a good time to bail.

Given WJ is having issues I doubt Onex has the cash to burn on them anyways.

They just got a nice new payscale, and they all seem to like their jobs so let them keep them.

[WJ200]

I'd be extremely surprised if there wasn't a Force Majeure clause in the agreement between Air Canada and Air Transat. I think the market is thinking the same thing right now.

[Hangry]

They just got a nice new payscale, and they all seem to like their jobs so let them keep them.

Absolutely. Some of these TS remarks are pretty aggravating. Best thing is you won’t have to “endure” working for AC.

Good luck

[FL320]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

[Fanblade]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

Regardless of anyone’s preferred outcome. Investors are clearly starting to question the transaction. Fear based no doubt. But if this situation continues to worsen for even a few weeks, massive groundings will start as cash burn skyrockets. Contingency plans getting involked.

Don’t underestimate just how devastating this type of thing can be. Every single major in North America entered Bankruptcy after 911/SARS. The C3/Royal/Canjet merger was one of the straws that broke that back. They tried to extract themselves without success.

I went through SARS. This is getting far more extensive. Yesterday and today the announcements alone In my mind far exceed that experience.

I’m wondering if force ma·jeure is on the horizon.

I know the phrase is over used. But I will use it anyway. We are in uncharted territory. Airlines might go into survival mode. If so all bets are off.

Hence the Transat stock price.

In other words a Transat/AC merger could easily become a back burner issue to reassess after normalization.

[altiplano]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?

[Fanblade]

https://business.financialpost.com/tran ... anadas-bid

If you like the risk. Here is a buying opportunity.

And honestly if this just blows over then this is a great buy. If it doesn’t quickly blow over.....

Currently travel insurance companies are slowly starting to declare Covid a known situation that is not insured. IOW travel medical insurance doesn’t exist for it. For me personally that means no longer leaving the country for pleasure.

I think the news of the last two days is going to tank bookings and AC with be forced to announce contingency plans to quell shareholder fears.

But if you have nerves of steal. Can sleep at night as this will get worse yet. You might want to consider a buy.

[ToolShed]

Financial advice from a pilot. (shakes head)

Let me remind you of flying Parachuters for free and flying the exact same plane for less money (Rouge).

Never ever listen to a pilot in regards to finance and career advice.

[GATRKGA]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?

What about AC stock? Didn’t it plummet even more percentage wise than TRZ?

For what it’s worth, the stock price doesn’t dictate the price of the transaction. Because unlike most pilots, businessmen don’t process acquisitions with the same mindset alike pilots who think short term, financially speaking. This AC trz acquisition is a long term game. The loss in slots alone and a brand that will fix your broken reputation is worth enough to still go through with it. Wether the pilots are deemed a surplus (which I think is what you’re hoping) is however a different story. And that, is to be determined.

WJ traded at 17 before it was announced to be purchased at 31. Trz was trading at dollar values way below today when it announced 13 per share from AC.

It’s not as simple as what you see in front of you.

[RRJetPilot]

I dont think Ac is letting go of Transat. Onex would sweep them up. Actually the pilots at Rouge better start practising their new call sign. Rouge's days are numbered now. Its actually pretty ironic how Rouge was trying to take out TS.

[Fanblade]

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw

This is just the start. Three weeks ago Italy was fine. Today they don’t have enough ventilators. Today Doctors are having to make a choice on who lives and who doesn’t. It’s barbaric. But reality.

Watch the video it’s good. Good in an informative way. Scary in another.

[altiplano]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?

What about AC stock? Didn’t it plummet even more percentage wise than TRZ?

For what it’s worth, the stock price doesn’t dictate the price of the transaction. Because unlike most pilots, businessmen don’t process acquisitions with the same mindset alike pilots who think short term, financially speaking. This AC trz acquisition is a long term game. The loss in slots alone and a brand that will fix your broken reputation is worth enough to still go through with it. Wether the pilots are deemed a surplus (which I think is what you’re hoping) is however a different story. And that, is to be determined.

WJ traded at 17 before it was announced to be purchased at 31. Trz was trading at dollar values way below today when it announced 13 per share from AC.

It’s not as simple as what you see in front of you.

Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png (509.65 KiB) Viewed 2272 times

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.

[GATRKGA]

You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?

What about AC stock? Didn’t it plummet even more percentage wise than TRZ?

For what it’s worth, the stock price doesn’t dictate the price of the transaction. Because unlike most pilots, businessmen don’t process acquisitions with the same mindset alike pilots who think short term, financially speaking. This AC trz acquisition is a long term game. The loss in slots alone and a brand that will fix your broken reputation is worth enough to still go through with it. Wether the pilots are deemed a surplus (which I think is what you’re hoping) is however a different story. And that, is to be determined.

WJ traded at 17 before it was announced to be purchased at 31. Trz was trading at dollar values way below today when it announced 13 per share from AC.

It’s not as simple as what you see in front of you.

Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.

Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence

[sanjet]

This will be a devastating summer regardless of merger happening or not, not going to be our call. Travel will be slashed this summer even the the virus under control.

We need to stay united as pilots, there will be demand for cost cuts and of course we will be the first to be asked as "leaders" to take the hit.

[altiplano]

What about AC stock? Didn’t it plummet even more percentage wise than TRZ?

For what it’s worth, the stock price doesn’t dictate the price of the transaction. Because unlike most pilots, businessmen don’t process acquisitions with the same mindset alike pilots who think short term, financially speaking. This AC trz acquisition is a long term game. The loss in slots alone and a brand that will fix your broken reputation is worth enough to still go through with it. Wether the pilots are deemed a surplus (which I think is what you’re hoping) is however a different story. And that, is to be determined.

WJ traded at 17 before it was announced to be purchased at 31. Trz was trading at dollar values way below today when it announced 13 per share from AC.

It’s not as simple as what you see in front of you.

Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.

Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence

I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?

[TFTMB heavy]

I'd be extremely surprised if there wasn't a Force Majeure clause in the agreement between Air Canada and Air Transat. I think the market is thinking the same thing right now.

There is a section that describes Material Adverse Effect. Some analysts and lawyers are saying it is not a way out if AC is looking for one.

[TSAM]

.

[chaster]

Quick question altiplano? As of today Transat has cash on hand and Equivalents of $682 Million dollars.Why don't you enlighten us all on how much the Transaction is worth?HINT Its not much more!! Maybe you might wish to purchase some AT

[derateNO]

There will be a large cost though to the company to train everyone, pay them, negotiate new fleet numbers etc. Walking away might be the easiest option at this point.

[FL320]

It’s funny to see some of you guys so desperate to wish that the current situation turns your dreams into reality. What are you so afraid of?

You should put all your savings into TRZ stock.

It's been under $10 today, on a transaction that's supposed to close in a few months at almost double that... What are you so afraid of?

I will keep my money to volonteer for unpaid leave if this is offered by Transat and leave my seat to a more junior colleague who has a family to feed (I am far from financial needs)

I wish you will do the same, you already spent a year and thousands of unuseful posts on avcanada while fully paid by AC thanks the Max issue. It’s time to pay back to your colleagues your unproductivity.

[Dry Guy]

And to derateno, yeah we TS pilots like what we have, there's a reason why the reputation of a happier place is here and not at AC. The more I hear of the selfish entitlement from and handful of AC pilots, the more I look forward to this deal as the salty tears will be delicious.

Wew, aren't you tempting karma a bit too much?

[GATRKGA]

Exactly. The deal is $18, not what the stock was before, or what the financials or potential valuation of TRZ are now...

You mention the Westjet/Onex deal. Announced May 13 at $31 and the stock promptly went to, and stayed just under $31 right until the deal closed and the stock delisted. The market was confident that the deal was happening at $31 and it stayed there, that was what it was defined to be worth.

Screenshot_20200312-131521.png

That's not what is happening here.

The market is pricing the discount because they are concerned the transaction won't proceed as planned. The stock wasn't already at $17.90 because there was some uncertainty surrounding approvals, but now with broader economic concerns and a travel slowdown, the market is thinking that there is a chance Rovinescu might rethink going through with this or want to keep his unrestricted cash in his pockets to support a potential long term bear in the industry, and the TRZ price is reflecting that. That said, if the market thought it wasn't going to happen TRZ would be fully tanked, but I'd say it's maybe saying 50/50.

I'm not hoping anything regarding the pilots being surplus. I'm hoping AC deems the deal not beneficial, pays the break fee, and walks.

If the deal can't increase market share and revenues or decrease costs what's the point? Save your hundreds of millions. There is no way Onex acquires TRZ now. I don't think they ever were going to anyway.

Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence

I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?

I don't have to take a shot at your intelligence, you do it yourself with stupid rhetorical questions like the last one.

Do you really need an explanation of why a deal pending 18/share is trading lower today? The entire market is down. How was the market doing when the WJ stock remained at 30.98 leading up to the purchase? It was riding the last of what was one of the longest bull periods of history.

The TRZ stock is down for the exact same reason your beloved maple leaf stock is down more than 50%. Hows that ESOP working out for you? Hopefully, you're intelligent enough to be looking for as many buy opportunities as possible in the coming weeks.

Besides, the purchase of transat has little to do with its value on the public market. As someone that likes to post fancy yahoo finance graphs, you should know the first rule in trading stock. People are cynical, and for the same reason, market direction is the same. It's why a stock can crash even though it posts great news.

The purchase is one of political, longevity, branding, and the value of the company in liquid cash. AC is already getting the company for a slice. Do you really think AC would walk away from a company with nearly 600 million in cash just sitting in the bank? Do you know how much ONE slot at Gatwick costs alone? How about AMS? How about YYZ? Start adding TS slots up across their network and it becomes evident very quickly how much of a slice this is for AC to buy. Yes, even during a recession when you and I, maybe seeking EI.

With your logic, AC shouldn't have even approached TRZ for a purchase, their stock was what, 5 bucks when this happened?

This whole tone of "good luck" and "they can stay where they are" that you guys toss around makes us look like such a petty and unprofessional group. You realize that peasants grasp at straws, while kings celebrate each other's victories right? If as AC pilots, we're such noble superiors, why can't we act like it? No doubt the majority of TS guys puke at the thought of sharing a cockpit with the likes of you. Unlike you, TRZ guys actually have a right to be upset about leaving their workplace.

As the poster who said we should stand united, I would love to put our differences aside. Will the likes of FL280 and Alti extend the same olive branch?

[LittleNelly]

Your whole Post is as speculative as a day trader on stock twits.

Thanks for the imagery alti.

I hope you get your wishes so you can feel good about your own sense of intelligence

I thought I replied to your post civilly and with reasoned explanation... I don't think it's necessary to take a shot at my intelligence.

I'm not speculating at all as to why it's at $10. We may see the market calm, the media drop the hype, and it will come back up, but right now it's at a discount because of the risk the deal doesn't happen.

Do you think otherwise? Enlighten me why the stock is trading at a discount today with a deal for $18 pending then?

I don't have to take a shot at your intelligence, you do it yourself with stupid rhetorical questions like the last one.

Do you really need an explanation of why a deal pending 18/share is trading lower today? The entire market is down. How was the market doing when the WJ stock remained at 30.98 leading up to the purchase? It was riding the last of what was one of the longest bull periods of history.

The TRZ stock is down for the exact same reason your beloved maple leaf stock is down more than 50%. Hows that ESOP working out for you? Hopefully, you're intelligent enough to be looking for as many buy opportunities as possible in the coming weeks.

Besides, the purchase of transat has little to do with its value on the public market. As someone that likes to post fancy yahoo finance graphs, you should know the first rule in trading stock. People are cynical, and for the same reason, market direction is the same. It's why a stock can crash even though it posts great news.

The purchase is one of political, longevity, branding, and the value of the company in liquid cash. AC is already getting the company for a slice. Do you really think AC would walk away from a company with nearly 600 million in cash just sitting in the bank? Do you know how much ONE slot at Gatwick costs alone? How about AMS? How about YYZ? Start adding TS slots up across their network and it becomes evident very quickly how much of a slice this is for AC to buy. Yes, even during a recession when you and I, maybe seeking EI.

With your logic, AC shouldn't have even approached TRZ for a purchase, their stock was what, 5 bucks when this happened?

This whole tone of "good luck" and "they can stay where they are" that you guys toss around makes us look like such a petty and unprofessional group. You realize that peasants grasp at straws, while kings celebrate each other's victories right? If as AC pilots, we're such noble superiors, why can't we act like it? No doubt the majority of TS guys puke at the thought of sharing a cockpit with the likes of you. Unlike you, TRZ guys actually have a right to be upset about leaving their workplace.

As the poster who said we should stand united, I would love to put our differences aside. Will the likes of FL280 and Alti extend the same olive branch?

The low Transat stock price has nothing to do with the rest of the market..
IF the deal was 100% for sure going to go through then anyone holding shares would receive $18. So why would someone sell at $11-17.99 if they knew they would receive $18 when the deal was finalized(targeted for May). At today's prices you would be looking at a good 30-50% guaranteed return!

The market is judging that despite this guaranteed return, it is not worth the risk of AC pulling the deal. If that happens expect Transat to drop to almost nothing in this environment of panic.