Corona Virus

[AuxBatOn]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad. The current number from confirmed cases and deaths is roughly 4%, which is probably more like 1 to 2% given all the unconfirmed/diagnosed cases due to asymptomatic people...and people are forgetting that the death rate of 4% currently is the elderly... majority over 80, with next highest rate being 70 and above. The death rate for those under 50 is virtual 0

It's contagious which is what is worrisome. I'm not down playing it but jezz this isn't ebola where the case fatality rate is on average 50%

Wrong. In order to calculate the death rate, you have to only take into account closed cases (ie: those that were cured and those that died). There were 91,000 closed cases since the beginning and 8,000 deaths for an 8.8% death rate. By your math, we’re looking at a 3-4% death rate. It is quite high.

Ebola wasn’t nearly as virulent. There were only 29k cases in the two years it resurged between 14 and 16 and 11k deaths. There are 8k deaths in just a couple of months and there is no sign of slowing down.

[mixturerich]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad.

Do you live under a rock? Look what’s happening in Italy and then say it “doesn’t appear to be that bad”.

[iflyforpie]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad.

Do you live under a rock? Look what’s happening in Italy and then say it “doesn’t appear to be that bad”.

A culture that’s highly social, highly passionate and physical, prone to excesses (food, drink, tobacco), aging, and are closet anarchists.

Maybe look at South Korea instead.

It’s not that bad.

[derateNO]

Not that bad?

I think it's just a different age group.

Keep in mind South Korea got a handle on this LONG ago, well before the stage we already are at in Canada. Not to mention many people in SK wear masks when they are sick (which only help the spread of disease) and are much more socially aware when they are sick than people in western countries, Canada and the USA specifically.

We can't keep comparing ourselves to SK, HK, Taiwan and China.

[Heliian]

The last couple days confirmed cases in Canada increased by about 30%/day, currently at about 600.

If cases increased by the same rate for 30 days, we would see 1.5 million. In 40, about 22 million.

Not saying that will actually happen, but it illustrates the problem.

Misinformation and panic is the problem, hospitals at overcapacity as the norm is the problem, cuts to healthcare is a problem.

Didn't matter until now did it?

This is going to burn over faster than it came in, I don't know what the troll farms will switch to then.

[ayseven]

The Earth needs the break from mad consumerism. I think that is the silver lining. You know, I haven't heard more than one airplane go over in two weeks. I feel for all those affected by work. Try to live one moment at a time. Let's just hope it doesn't last long, and try to get through, shall we?

[Old fella]

Cheap gas and perhaps jet fuel for a while. Where I live a Costco had gas down to 79c/L, gonna be a glut for a bit, now toilet paper 🧻 well need I say more

[derateNO]

The last couple days confirmed cases in Canada increased by about 30%/day, currently at about 600.

If cases increased by the same rate for 30 days, we would see 1.5 million. In 40, about 22 million.

Not saying that will actually happen, but it illustrates the problem.

Misinformation and panic is the problem, hospitals at overcapacity as the norm is the problem, cuts to healthcare is a problem.

Didn't matter until now did it?

This is going to burn over faster than it came in, I don't know what the troll farms will switch to then.

EVERYONE has been having problems with capacity. This is not a unique problem to Canada...

[complexintentions]

The TP shortage is a nice example of supply chain disruption.

It won't stop with TP - for example anything produced in China won't be getting re-stocked. Once the current supply runs out - that's it.

People haven't figured this out yet - once they do it will be complete anarchy in the stores.

No. This is an example of spreading fear. China is actually re-opening factories, of course nowhere near the same capacity as pre-shutdown, but definitely happening. Do remember that China is several months ahead of us, this only became a crisis to the ignorant West when it began to affect US, and now it's panic-time in the Twitterverse. It's a certainty the Chinese are not going to miss a chance to run their manufacturing as hard as they can as soon as they can. In Czech Republic, for example, they are sending tons of cargo planes to China to re-supply all kinds of necessary items, including masks and medicine. Ironic, to be sure.

It's true that a lot of (completely unnecessary) consumer item may be in short supply for the foreseeable, and yes, uneven access to some vital ones as well. Welcome to the way much of the world lives, all the time. But sweeping statements using adjectives like "anything" are part of the problem. Supply chains are being disrupted, not stopped. Cargo flying will be the business to be in for awhile, Korean is utilizing their pax fleet for cargo, for example.

The fear of this thing is so much more the problem than the virus itself. Most of the damage now is self-inflicted: irrational fear of running out, results in certain items...running out. I wish people would stop feeding it but unfortunately Western cultures have had it so good for so long there is zero resilience anymore. Combine it with the general dumbing down and endless platforms to readily spread misinformation, and it's like a herd of stupid cows. Dangerous.

[derateNO]

China also locked down essentially the entire country, in their homes.

In Canada I still see people showing up to work coughing and going to bars/clubs.

People need to stop comparing us to any asian country full stop.

[twa22]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad. The current number from confirmed cases and deaths is roughly 4%, which is probably more like 1 to 2% given all the unconfirmed/diagnosed cases due to asymptomatic people...and people are forgetting that the death rate of 4% currently is the elderly... majority over 80, with next highest rate being 70 and above. The death rate for those under 50 is virtual 0

It's contagious which is what is worrisome. I'm not down playing it but jezz this isn't ebola where the case fatality rate is on average 50%

Wrong. In order to calculate the death rate, you have to only take into account closed cases (ie: those that were cured and those that died). There were 91,000 closed cases since the beginning and 8,000 deaths for an 8.8% death rate. By your math, we’re looking at a 3-4% death rate. It is quite high.

Ebola wasn’t nearly as virulent. There were only 29k cases in the two years it resurged between 14 and 16 and 11k deaths. There are 8k deaths in just a couple of months and there is no sign of slowing down.

I'm basing my numbers on the current confirmed cases and deaths, closed or not, we are currently at 4%. The current case fatality rate only looks at current deaths versus total number of cases. The final case fatality rate will take into account what you mentioned, deaths versus recoveries. There are too many unknown status at this point that by taking actual recoveries to deaths, of course you will get a much higher number... Let's not jump the gun now and say it's 9% death rate, why cause more panic? As I said before, there are probably alot more people infected that we don't know about, and never will because they are asymptomatic... Also, there are likely a lot more recoveries that we don't know about. Let's settle down now and not panic

[twa22]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad.

Do you live under a rock? Look what’s happening in Italy and then say it “doesn’t appear to be that bad”.

An Italian hospital turned away patient 0, who is a 38 year old male athlete, four times from the after he complained several times about shortness of breath... Each of the four times was on separate days. He unintentionally spread the diseases because no one gave a shit to test and treat him promptly so he wouldn't spread it in the manner he did. Italy has one of the oldest population in the world, with majority of their deaths being the elderly.

It's ironic that Italy was first to ban flights to and from China, and are now slammed because of them not taking the virus more seriously

Sorry, the virus itself, if treated promptly and not allowed to spread, is not that bad. What's bad is the fact that it's super contagious... Let it spread and it will undoubtedly have consequences on majority of the population. However, it is not a disease like Ebola that will likely kill you if contracted. Thankfully, Ebola is not transmitted via air, hence why the risk factor of contraction is very low.

I don't know how else to explain it. The virus compared to many others is not one that will automatically kill... Problem is, it will kill many because it's very easily spreadable, and that's the biggest problem which is really bad...control the spread and probability of survival is very, very high... I just hope we can control the spread before the health care systems worldwide get overloaded

[North Shore]

An Italian hospital turned away patient 0, who is a 38 year old male athlete,

I'll bet that was a race he's not proud of winning!

[AuxBatOn]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad. The current number from confirmed cases and deaths is roughly 4%, which is probably more like 1 to 2% given all the unconfirmed/diagnosed cases due to asymptomatic people...and people are forgetting that the death rate of 4% currently is the elderly... majority over 80, with next highest rate being 70 and above. The death rate for those under 50 is virtual 0

It's contagious which is what is worrisome. I'm not down playing it but jezz this isn't ebola where the case fatality rate is on average 50%

Wrong. In order to calculate the death rate, you have to only take into account closed cases (ie: those that were cured and those that died). There were 91,000 closed cases since the beginning and 8,000 deaths for an 8.8% death rate. By your math, we’re looking at a 3-4% death rate. It is quite high.

Ebola wasn’t nearly as virulent. There were only 29k cases in the two years it resurged between 14 and 16 and 11k deaths. There are 8k deaths in just a couple of months and there is no sign of slowing down.

I'm basing my numbers on the current confirmed cases and deaths, closed or not, we are currently at 4%. The current case fatality rate only looks at current deaths versus total number of cases. The final case fatality rate will take into account what you mentioned, deaths versus recoveries. There are too many unknown status at this point that by taking actual recoveries to deaths, of course you will get a much higher number... Let's not jump the gun now and say it's 9% death rate, why cause more panic? As I said before, there are probably alot more people infected that we don't know about, and never will because they are asymptomatic... Also, there are likely a lot more recoveries that we don't know about. Let's settle down now and not panic

Because of those unclosed cases, some will die. The only way to get a somewhat accurate number is by taking closed cases.

[Kaykay]

Wrong. In order to calculate the death rate, you have to only take into account closed cases (ie: those that were cured and those that died). There were 91,000 closed cases since the beginning and 8,000 deaths for an 8.8% death rate. By your math, we’re looking at a 3-4% death rate. It is quite high.

Ebola wasn’t nearly as virulent. There were only 29k cases in the two years it resurged between 14 and 16 and 11k deaths. There are 8k deaths in just a couple of months and there is no sign of slowing down.

I'm basing my numbers on the current confirmed cases and deaths, closed or not, we are currently at 4%. The current case fatality rate only looks at current deaths versus total number of cases. The final case fatality rate will take into account what you mentioned, deaths versus recoveries. There are too many unknown status at this point that by taking actual recoveries to deaths, of course you will get a much higher number... Let's not jump the gun now and say it's 9% death rate, why cause more panic? As I said before, there are probably alot more people infected that we don't know about, and never will because they are asymptomatic... Also, there are likely a lot more recoveries that we don't know about. Let's settle down now and not panic

Because of those unclosed cases, some will die. The only way to get a somewhat accurate number is by taking closed cases.

No, the only “accurate” way to calculate the death rate is post crisis when you have a total of all whom have recovered versus all whom have died. I understand the point you’re trying to get at because yes, some who are infected will still possibly die. However some who are infected will recover too. Both of these things will either raise or lower the mortality percentage. You will only have a truly accurate calculation when everyone has either recovered or passed away.

[AuxBatOn]

That’s why I said somewhat accurate (for during the crisis). Yes, some unresolved cases will recover and some will die. It is a fair assumption that it’ll be at the same rate( or close) as the curent fatality rate (death/resolved cases)

[Old fella]

When this fucking shit show blows over and it will at some point, we will all go bust- look out then.

[Heliian]

Because it seems that people have literally no common sense... the virus doesn't appear to be that bad.

Do you live under a rock? Look what’s happening in Italy and then say it “doesn’t appear to be that bad”.

An Italian hospital turned away patient 0, who is a 38 year old male athlete, four times from the after he complained several times about shortness of breath... Each of the four times was on separate days. He unintentionally spread the diseases because no one gave a shit to test and treat him promptly so he wouldn't spread it in the manner he did. Italy has one of the oldest population in the world, with majority of their deaths being the elderly.

It's ironic that Italy was first to ban flights to and from China, and are now slammed because of them not taking the virus more seriously

Sorry, the virus itself, if treated promptly and not allowed to spread, is not that bad. What's bad is the fact that it's super contagious... Let it spread and it will undoubtedly have consequences on majority of the population. However, it is not a disease like Ebola that will likely kill you if contracted. Thankfully, Ebola is not transmitted via air, hence why the risk factor of contraction is very low.

I don't know how else to explain it. The virus compared to many others is not one that will automatically kill... Problem is, it will kill many because it's very easily spreadable, and that's the biggest problem which is really bad...control the spread and probability of survival is very, very high... I just hope we can control the spread before the health care systems worldwide get overloaded

Do you have a reference for the first patient in italy?

[Eric Janson]

Why anarchy? What do people need THAT MUCH that comes from China?

We'll survive.

You may have missed this:-

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02- ... otentially

You can add meat to the list as well.

The big one is Medicines - I believe about 80% comes from China.

We are about to pay the price for Globalism imho.


If you want an example of how quickly it can all fall apart I would suggest you look at Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath in New Orleans. The big lesson here is how useless the Government was.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong - but civilisation is a very thin veneer covering the true nature of humanity.

[Inverted2]

Why anarchy? What do people need THAT MUCH that comes from China?

We'll survive.

You may have missed this:-

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-02- ... otentially

You can add meat to the list as well.

The big one is Medicines - I believe about 80% comes from China.

We are about to pay the price for Globalism imho.


If you want an example of how quickly it can all fall apart I would suggest you look at Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath in New Orleans. The big lesson here is how useless the Government was.

I would like nothing more than to be wrong - but civilisation is a very thin veneer covering the true nature of humanity.

So buying 500 additional rounds of ammo yesterday was a good idea.

[Heliian]

Why anarchy? What do people need THAT MUCH that comes from China?

We'll survive.

You may have missed this:-

ht

Your news site reference is not a reliable source.

[twa22]

Do you live under a rock? Look what’s happening in Italy and then say it “doesn’t appear to be that bad”.

An Italian hospital turned away patient 0, who is a 38 year old male athlete, four times from the after he complained several times about shortness of breath... Each of the four times was on separate days. He unintentionally spread the diseases because no one gave a shit to test and treat him promptly so he wouldn't spread it in the manner he did. Italy has one of the oldest population in the world, with majority of their deaths being the elderly.

It's ironic that Italy was first to ban flights to and from China, and are now slammed because of them not taking the virus more seriously

Sorry, the virus itself, if treated promptly and not allowed to spread, is not that bad. What's bad is the fact that it's super contagious... Let it spread and it will undoubtedly have consequences on majority of the population. However, it is not a disease like Ebola that will likely kill you if contracted. Thankfully, Ebola is not transmitted via air, hence why the risk factor of contraction is very low.

I don't know how else to explain it. The virus compared to many others is not one that will automatically kill... Problem is, it will kill many because it's very easily spreadable, and that's the biggest problem which is really bad...control the spread and probability of survival is very, very high... I just hope we can control the spread before the health care systems worldwide get overloaded

Do you have a reference for the first patient in italy?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/coronavirus-italy-1.5498650

now, mind you, this is the news so the validity of the story may not be 100%, I will fully admit to that

Also, FWIW, this is a good read

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

[ayseven]

Well, I am working out double hard in the basement so I can duke it out successfully for toilet paper at the local pharmacy - which people were doing today.

[Human Factor]

A message from Italians to their past selves:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMY0-4p9P-M

[2R]

I wonder if that malaria drug that is being used to treat some patients would have a prophylactic benefit for flight crews ? Especially medical crews ?
Some anti - malarial meds have some real serious side effects . Those are generic drugs so it should be a cheap fix , not 100 percent so far .