Layoffs

[RippleRock]

Long time lurker. First post.

I've been at AC for over 20 years.

There is --NO WAY-- CUPE will allow the layoff of half its membership without other employee groups laying-off as well. Remember the B1 fiasco??? Remember the decades of "me too clauses"?

Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. I'm betting we will cut loose 1000-1500 ACPA members within a month.

CUPE will not stand to see half its membership on the street while other groups keeping all their members employed during this downturn.

They were likely promised this already.

Rip.

[BTD]

I'm not saying that anything can't happen.

But as per the contract Force Majeure is only in relation to article 1 scope (which includes minimum blocking guarantees). Not block guarantees for the individual but WJA vs NJA and EMJs etc.

[bcflyer]

Long time lurker. First post.

I've been at AC for over 20 years.

There is --NO WAY-- CUPE will allow the layoff of half its membership without other employee groups laying-off as well. Remember the B1 fiasco??? Remember the decades of "me too clauses"?

Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. I'm betting we will cut loose 1000-1500 ACPA members within a month.

CUPE will not stand to see half its membership on the street while other groups keeping all their members employed during this downturn.

They were likely promised this already.

Rip.

The B1 fiasco went nowhere. It was dismissed. To the best of my knowledge there are no more “me-too” clauses in our contracts. It’s costs nothing to lay-off F/A’s. It costs a lot to lay-off pilots. I’m not saying layoffs aren’t coming but it won’t be because another union says so.

[Hangry]

CUPE has absolutely nothing to do with pilot layoffs.

No juice.

[Fanblade]

Long time lurker. First post.

I've been at AC for over 20 years.

There is --NO WAY-- CUPE will allow the layoff of half its membership without other employee groups laying-off as well. Remember the B1 fiasco??? Remember the decades of "me too clauses"?

Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. I'm betting we will cut loose 1000-1500 ACPA members within a month.

CUPE will not stand to see half its membership on the street while other groups keeping all their members employed during this downturn.

They were likely promised this already.

Rip.

I get where you are coming from. How things have worked in the past. But I doubt anyone in their right mind right now would agree to tie their hands in any way, shape, or form. CUPE, none of us to be truthful, are in the drivers seat. They have zero leverage to dictate. Nor do we. AC will do what makes sense for AC. Tomorrow it will change and they will do it again. Full stop.

[RippleRock]

Only those who have been with the company a long while will understand, its not only an economic decision, but one of optics as well.

If one FA is put out on the street, other employee groups will follow suit.

Watch.

[sanjet]

Only those who have been with the company a long while will understand, its not only an economic decision, but one of optics as well.

If one FA is put out on the street, other employee groups will follow suit.

Watch.

While I don’t doubt their will be layoffs in other departments including pilots. Optics will have nothing to do with financial decisions, this will be a ruthless 6-12 months and cost control is the only factor. Only strong balance sheet companies will survive.

[Fanblade]

Only those who have been with the company a long while will understand, its not only an economic decision, but one of optics as well.

If one FA is put out on the street, other employee groups will follow suit.

Watch.

I’m over 20 years as well. I’m not saying there won’t be layoffs. But it won’t be because AC agreed to tie their hands on CUPE demands. That would be outright stupidity right now.

I do think though that unless the event horizon is short it will happen anyway. Right now we don’t know what the event horizon looks like. If Covid19 shows back up in China after reopening the economy all bets are off.

We could see everyone furloughed. Just management to fly a few flights.

In the mean time one day at a time. I think the $$$ value an overall pay cut offers the company, at least in the short term, has the potential to stop furloughs in the short term.

We will see.

[RippleRock]

I would hate to see it, but we could easily shed all pilots on flat pay with little $$$ impact downline. If the layoff is less than 24 months, only a 'short course' would be required. Pilots wont be going anywhere, that's for certain.

While economics are certainly foremost on CR's mind, if you've been watching how things are done here, especially during CCAA, you would understand. There's a sense of "socialization, sharing the wealth and pain" that is unique to Canada.

Back in 2003, within two months of us laying off 185+- guys and gals, I watched as greedy dicks did overtime to pick up the shortage. We didn't need to lay off then, but we did anyway. Optics.

Maybe I'm missing something, but with 5100 (That's HALF) FA's joining the EI line, the pilots will not be immune.

[Sharklasers]

Not that I agree with ripplerock but there are FAs on yammer asking where all the other layoffs are and when the pilots will feel the pain. That attitude absolutely exists at the ground level.

[RRJetPilot]

Not that I agree with ripplerock but there are FAs on yammer asking where all the other layoffs are and when the pilots will feel the pain. That attitude absolutely exists at the ground level.

Thats because they think they are equal to pilots. Didnt they want raises to match the FOs wage recently?
Most dont even know what the FO does.
" Are you going to be a pilot too? " - Ive heard that one a few times.

[flashheart]

Wouldn’t it make sense to shed from the top from a financial and health point of view?

The senior pilots are on the WB, the planes that will be used the least

Which age group is most impacted by this virus?
Which age group is most likely to be hospitalized if they get the virus?
What are the odds of a pilot who actively flies around the world on getting the virus?

Grounding the cheapest pilots in the world seems to me, unlikely. But does it matter, what is the sustainability of an older workforce with a world pandemic?

If a guy gets laid off and has to sit at home and watch this from the sidelines, maybe it is a blessing in disguise

[pilotbzh]

Brace for bad news in the next weeks, AC won't carry 4500 pilots for long.... On pure speculations ....despite incentives to retire and reduce hours, I can't see them not laying off probably 1500 pilots.... Rouge gone, 767 mainline gone, E190 gone, even probably 777 parked, Running 787 and Airbuses on essential services for the next year.... We'll have to face the new reality soon...

[Dry Guy]

Why do I get the impression people are chomping at the bit to see Air Canada pilots get laid off?

I see it too.

[FL-280]

Will you feel better about yourself if AC pilots get layoffs too?

[pilotbzh]

Will you feel better about yourself if AC pilots get layoffs too?

No but the math are clear, you don't park up to 175 Airplanes without offloading pilots, I just hope not to be in the numbers... Mainline has 189 and rouge 66.... only 80 frame left flying... How many pilots will be needed ?

[bcflyer]

Will you feel better about yourself if AC pilots get layoffs too?

No but the math are clear, you don't park up to 175 Airplanes without offloading pilots, I just hope not to be in the numbers... Mainline has 189 and rouge 66.... only 80 frame left flying... How many pilots will be needed ?

Are the regionals included in the 175 fins?

[fish4life]

Will you feel better about yourself if AC pilots get layoffs too?

No but the math are clear, you don't park up to 175 Airplanes without offloading pilots, I just hope not to be in the numbers... Mainline has 189 and rouge 66.... only 80 frame left flying... How many pilots will be needed ?

Are the regionals included in the 175 fins?

No

[whoop_whoop]

If a guy gets laid off and has to sit at home and watch this from the sidelines, maybe it is a blessing in disguise

I’ve heard that some daycares are turning away children of aircrew because they perceive those kids as high-risk disease carriers!! For those with kids, not working might just make life simpler.

[HavaJava]

I’ve heard that some daycares are turning away children of aircrew because they perceive those kids as high-risk disease carriers!! For those with kids, not working might just make life simpler.

That’s why the new policy in my home is that no one gets to know my (or my wife’s) profession unless they are legally required to. Also, our travel plans and history will not be divulged to anyone except our closest and most trusted family.

[PostmasterGeneral]

I would hate to see it, but we could easily shed all pilots on flat pay with little $$$ impact downline. If the layoff is less than 24 months, only a 'short course' would be required. Pilots wont be going anywhere, that's for certain.

The giant problem with that theory, is that the flat pay pilots hardly cost the company anything... If they're looking to save capital, letting the 20+ year guys off the high paying WB CA spots is the way to save huge amounts of capital while minimizing the impact overall to the pilot group. Laying off out of seniority isn't likely, think more in terms of forced early retirements.

[Fanblade]

I would hate to see it, but we could easily shed all pilots on flat pay with little $$$ impact downline. If the layoff is less than 24 months, only a 'short course' would be required. Pilots wont be going anywhere, that's for certain.

The giant problem with that theory, is that the flat pay pilots hardly cost the company anything... If they're looking to save capital, letting the 20+ year guys off the high paying WB CA spots is the way to save huge amounts of capital while minimizing the impact overall to the pilot group. Laying off out of seniority isn't likely, think more in terms of forced early retirements.

Your right in that you have identified the conundrum wrt laying off those on flat salary. But you can’t violate people’s human rights. You can however incentivize 60+ pilots out the door.

Incentive 1, better chance of not becoming a statistic of the pandemic.
Incentive 2, get rid of having to give notice to avoid SERP penalty.
Incentive 3, get rid of pension penalty for those that do not have 25 YOS at age 60.
Incentive 4, early retirement packages for those under 60.

ACPA is still negotiating. If the 737 grounding was any indication of why we are still talking, expect the company will be seeking to suspend large portions of the contract as they ramp back up. This would be in exchange for any quid we get now on the lay-off front.

[rudder]

Are the regionals included in the 175 fins?

Jazz has identified immediate surpluses for pilots and FA’s on the order of 40%.

[Fanblade]

Are the regionals included in the 175 fins?

Jazz has identified immediate surpluses for pilots and FA’s on the order of 40%.

Any mitigation strategies being considered?

[rudder]

Are the regionals included in the 175 fins?

Jazz has identified immediate surpluses for pilots and FA’s on the order of 40%.

Any mitigation strategies being considered?

Yes but discussions are ongoing.

Pilots bought a little breathing room until the end of April by cancelling April schedules and putting every pilot on a RSV line to be called out to cover planned flying. 400 Jazz FA’s identified as surplus. FA schedules being rebid for April based on adjusted flying.

Still entirely possible that some pilot layoff notices will go out April 01st effective May 01st. 40% is a big number. And nobody knows how long this crisis will go on.